Tag: Vortecs

Beating Bitcoin: Why some traders don’t care about USD prices

by Cointelegraph

There are always two components to each altcoin’s price. One is the coin’s own characteristics: Fundamentals, investor sentiment toward the asset, liquidity and trading volume, among many others. Another powerful factor — the one that often renders any altcoin-specific dynamics irrelevant — is Bitcoin’s performance.

Like it or not, when the king of cryptocurrencies soars, there is room for the shabbiest shitcoins to punch way above their weight. When BTC tumbles, even the sturdiest alts can take a proportional hit. It’s a question of knowing which is which.

Many traders within the crypto markets are relatively unfazed by decreases in the U.S. dollar value of their holdings, because they trade almost exclusively against Bitcoin on key exchanges where the liquidity of the altcoin / BTC pair may be more attractive than the same alt / stablecoin pair.

And of course, there are plenty of trading diehards who don’t intend to cash out their position into fiat in the near future at all: The cohort who believe that increasing their Bitcoin portfolio is more important than transferring into the inflationary U.S. dollar, or some other fiat currency.

But it’s all correlated, right?

While it may seem that coins’ own conditions are irrelevant given Bitcoin’s outsize influence, they do, in fact, make a difference. Assets with a healthy outlook of their own are often among the top gainers when things are bullish, and when there is a market-wide correction, they can recover faster and harder than the rest of the altcoin bunch — and even Bitcoin itself.

So how do you tell which coins’ market situation is healthier than others’ when everything is gory red? The VORTECS™ score, an algorithmic tool comparing historic market conditions around each coin to the present situation, can offer some clues. Exclusively available to subscribers of Cointelegraph Markets Pro, each asset’s VORTECS™ score indicates whether the present combination of the coin’s market and social metrics is historically bullish, bearish, or neutral.

Here are some very recent examples. When Bitcoin plunged below $30K on Tuesday following the bearish news coming out of China, stablecoins remained the only class of digital assets not to go deep into the red territory.

However, over the next 24 hours, BTC recovered many of the losses, bouncing back to above $33K. Not all altcoins were quick to replicate this relief rally, but many of those that did were aided by historically favorable individual conditions that the VORTECS™ indicator captured hours before the negative trend turned around.

PARSIQ (PRQ) Analysis

24-hour price change: +18.83% vs. USD, +2.21% vs. BTC

PRQ saw a rough week as its price declined from $0.88 on June 17 to $0.56 just before the Bitcoin- induced market-wide slump on June 22. It then slipped further down to $0.35.

While the coin’s VORTECS™ score line has been yellow (neutral) for much of the week, it began picking up as the price was sliding down, suggesting that the patterns of market and social conditions around the coin were looking increasingly similar to those in the past that were consistently followed by significant price increases within 12 to 72 hours. The coin was ripe for a breakout — if and when Bitcoin-driven macro forces allowed.

BTC’s about-face that came late on June 22 meant that the way was open for fundamentally strong altcoins to rebound. PRQ’s VORTECS™ score peaked at 86 (red circle in the graph) shortly after the negative trend reversed, halfway through the coin’s leap from $0.35 to $0.55, although the score’s trend had been upwards for several hours.

Solana (SOL) Analysis

24-hour price change: +26.36% vs. USD +12.96% vs. BTC

Although SOL’s VORTECS™ score did not cross the psychologically important threshold of 80 this week, it has been in the high 70s consistently, indicating the model’s reasonably high confidence in the coin’s favorable outlook.

When its price began to sink along with the rest of the market, VORTECS™ dynamics remained positive: In fact, the low price point ($21.41, first red box) coincided with the highest score (77, red circle). Judging by the historical precedent, the coin was poised for an energetic recovery.

When the tide turned, SOL was among the biggest winners of the day, regaining 26% against USD and almost 13% against Bitcoin.

Enjin Coin (ENJ) Analysis

24-hour price change: +18.73% vs. USD, +7.30% vs. BTC

Much like PARSIQ’s case, Enjin’s VORTECS™ score shot up as the crypto market followed Bitcoin into a tailspin. It reached a high of 79 early on June 22 (red circle) and remained in the green zone throughout the entire flash crash.

As the correction was over, the price of ENJ shot up from the low of 79 cents to the high of $1.04.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Important Disclaimer

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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A RUNE with a view: How smart crypto traders caught a 48% price pump

by Cointelegraph

Disparities in information access and data analytics tech are what give institutional players an edge over regular retail investors in the digital asset space.

The core idea behind Markets Pro, Cointelegraph’s crypto intelligence platform powered by data analytics firm The TIE, is to equalize the information asymmetries that permeate cryptocurrency markets.

Markets Pro bridges the gap with two world-class functionalities: the quant-style VORTECS™ score, and breaking NewsQuake™ alerts.

The former is an algorithmic comparison of several key market metrics around each coin to years of historical data, which assesses whether at any moment the outlook for this asset is bullish, bearish, or neutral given the historical record of price action.

NewsQuakes™ are automated notifications driven by an AI routine that monitors thousands of information sources to deliver potentially market-moving news to members, often within seconds.

Neither of these is a predictive tool. What both the VORTECS™ score and NewsQuakes™ are designed to do is to notify traders that something has just happened that, in the past, reliably moved asset prices. That’s why a good Markets Pro chart is the one that shows events happening in the right order and in the right time: First comes the indicator, and then price action follows.

In the last couple of days, we have observed a number of exemplary scenarios illustrating classic Markets Pro reads on the market.

RUNE: VORTECS™ shoots up, price follows shortly

June 13 did not start off as a particularly great day for those who were invested in THORChain (RUNE) and looking to make some gains. The coin has been on its way down, falling from above $9.00 a couple of days ago to just above $7.00.

However, the coin’s VORTECS™ score has been steady in the green (bullish) zone, sometimes even venturing into dark green (confidently bullish).

While most traders only saw what was on the surface — a coin’s weak performance — Markets Pro members have had access to a wider view. Even if the price trend did not look promising at all, the market conditions remained historically favorable for RUNE, suggesting a dip potentially worth buying.

Shortly before noon, RUNE’s VORTECS™ line tipped over 80, foreshadowing a rally that began to unfold six hours later. When the price went up, it went up sharply: from $7.00 to the peak of $10.34 twenty-six hours later.

It might also seem from the chart that fuel for the rally came from a NewsQuake™ detected a couple of hours before the pump. While the announcement of a RUNE giveaway by an investment company Qi Capital has definitely added to the momentum, it is unlikely that it had actually triggered the massive pump: As a sequence of strong VORTECS™ scores pointed out, RUNE’s breakout was propped up by an overall healthy outlook in the first place.

KNC: Polygon partnership news shakes up the market

Big announcements that promise more liquidity for the DeFi sector are usually a boon for the coins involved. When Kyber protocol’s team announced the deployment of their first liquidity mining program on Polygon and Ethereum, worth $30M in rewards, the market rewarded the KNC token with a pump from $1.78 to $2.06 (a 16% increase) within 8 hours.

However, the effect of the news began to recede almost as quickly as it kicked in, so only those quick to react were allowed to feast at the profit table. A safe way to secure a spot was through receiving a NewsQuake™ (red circle in the graph) notifying users of the collaboration. Alerts were sent to Markets Pro several minutes after the deal was publicly unveiled, but before the price of KNC had begun ascending.

These classic patterns are replicated day in, day out on Cointelegraph Markets Pro, where the top-performing strategy the team has been monitoring since Jan 3 2021 (Buy at 80, Sell after 24 hours) has now delivered a staggering 3,694% return in live-testing. Full details of the methodology used are available here.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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VORTECS Report: When this indicator lights up, LUNA, MATIC and EGLD usually gain 10%

by Cointelegraph

Consistency is not generally a hallmark of crypto asset price movements. In a market characterized by volatility, outliers often become the norm — while even macro analysis of large cap assets such as Bitcoin and Ether is often wide of the mark.

For cryptocurrencies with smaller market capitalizations, finding trading patterns can be even harder. But as the VORTECS Score™ from Cointelegraph Markets Pro continues to absorb the history of almost 200 digital assets, careful analysis of some crypto tokens demonstrates that patterns do exist: Even if they may be invisible to the human eye, the data doesn’t lie.

The data science team at Markets Pro and The TIE examined a number of cryptocurrencies that have regularly reached a VORTECS™ Score of over 80 since the quant algorithm was launched on January 3 2021.

A score of 80 generally indicates that the algorithm has reasonably high confidence that the combination of positive sentiment, price action, trading volume, and tweet volume that it currently sees in the market has historically led to increased prices for that particular asset over the next few days.

In the chart below, we can see assets that have hit that score on at least 20 days since launch, including AVAX, EGLD, VGX, MATIC, FTM, LUNA, AXS, AAVE, SAND and COTI.

The blue bar illustrates the number of days on which the asset hit at least 80 — if the coin rose above 80 and then retreated below, before achieving the score again, only one per day was recorded; all subsequent hits in the next 24 hours were ignored.

Orange bars represent the number of occasions on which the asset then gained 3% in value over the subsequent 72 hours, while grey bars show a gain of 5% and yellow denotes a 10% gain.

LUNA boasts the most consistent gains of at least 3% following a VORTECS™ Score of 80, achieving that milestone 92% of the time:

  • Gained 3% in value 92% of the time

  • Gained 5% in value 84% of the time

  • Gained 10% in value 68% of the time

Elrond (EGLD) also has a strong set of scores following an 80 score:

  • Gained 3% in value 65% of the time

  • Gained 5% in value 61% of the time

  • Gained 10% in value 55% of the time

The Sandbox (SAND) stands out for highly consistent minor gains that didn’t translate into the same sort of 10% plus returns:

  • Gained 3% in value 86% of the time

  • Gained 5% in value 82% of the time

  • Gained 10% in value 41% of the time

What is VORTECS?™

The VORTECS™ Score is an algorithmic metric derived from historical analysis of crypto markets.

For each one of the ~200 crypto assets supported by Cointelegraph Markets Pro, the algorithm is hunting for moments in time that resemble the current marketscape — 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Specifically, it’s looking for patterns that have consistently led to significant changes in price in the past.

Those patterns include a variety of factors: Volume, Outlook, RealPrice, Tweet Volume, Elevation, Confidence, and Sentiment… or VORTECS™ for short.

The algorithm combines all of this raw data into a VORTECS™ Score, which is designed to identify the general health of the market for a particular crypto asset. A high score suggests that in the past, conditions similar to those we see right now have often led to increases in the price of that asset. The higher the score, the more confident the algorithm is that these scenarios have been consistent.

All-time VORTECS™ Score performance

Markets Pro has been tracking the return on investment (ROI) of Bitcoin, an evenly-weighted basket of the top 100 altcoins, and various automated VORTECS™-based strategies since launching the algorithm on January 3 2021. A full methodology is available here.

While Bitcoin was trading just 8% higher than its price on January 3 at the time of writing, the altcoin basket had delivered 348% in returns. The top-performing VORTECS™ strategies have delivered outsized gains including several in excess of 1,000%, although the recent market pullback has meant that one strategy (buy at a score of 85, sell at 75) now trails Bitcoin’s returns.

Time-based strategy performance

Score-based strategy performance

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Important Disclaimer

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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Beyond Dogecoin: The 5 hottest cryptos on Twitter this month

by Cointelegraph

In the realm of digital assets, Crypto Twitter is a major seat of power. Memecoins and serious large-cap assets alike can see their value rise or fall depending on whether the whimsical Twitter crowd decides to pay attention. 

Huge rallies and dramatic declines often trigger waves of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) or Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) on the platform, capable of massively amplifying the unfolding price dynamics.

Granted, it would be convenient if increases in Twitter volume always spelled price hikes — yet, as the facts demonstrate, this relationship is way, way more complicated than that.

Tweet volume is one of the ingredients of a proprietary formula powering the VORTECS™ Score, a machine learning algorithm that compares historic and current market conditions around digital assets to aid crypto traders’ decision making. The model considers a host of other indicators – market outlook, price movement, social sentiment, trading activity – to arrive at a score that assesses whether the present conditions are historically bullish, neutral, or bearish for a given coin.

This week, we follow five digital assets who made the biggest strides in terms of Twitter activity this month. All five added hundreds of percent of tweets compared to the previous month’s average – but how actionable were these dynamics for traders?

Here’s how the VORTECS™ Score could give investors a few hints.

Telcoin (TEL): +300% Twitter volume

Between May 2 and 5, as Telcoin (TEL) was bracing for a massive price leap that would take it from below $0.01 to above $0.05 within ten days, two considerable spikes in tweets tagging TEL occurred. While the coin would normally get several hundred mentions a day, these two peaks each saw more than 3,000.

Combined with other factors, this pattern was recognized as historically favorable by the VORTECS™ model, which dished out a very high score of 91 (red circle in the graph). A tremendous price run followed less than a day later. Further tweet volume spikes this month followed price surges rather than preceded them.

Overall, in the last 30 days, Telcoin delivered 189% vs. USD and 345% vs. Bitcoin.

Polygon (MATIC): +240% Twitter volume

Twitter activity around MATIC and its price action entered a virtuous circle in May, with each leg of the price rally triggering a surge in chatter which, in turn, preceded a further round of the token’s appreciation.

Of course, there was much more to Polygon’s remarkable month, with a slew of positive real-world developments and trading activity spikes, but tweet volume appeared to be an essential feature of each VORTECS™ score peak (red circles in the chart).

MATIC’s monthly gains: 125% vs. USD and 248% vs. BTC.

iExec (RLC): +711% Twitter volume

iExec (RLC) emerged as the biggest winner in terms of added tweet volume this month, yet its price increase has been more modest: 60% against USD and 148% against Bitcoin.

In RLC’s case, as the charts illustrate, spikes in tweet volume were largely reactive and merely followed price action. The coin’s VORTECS™ score has been largely neutral ahead of the rally that started around May 9, suggesting that the combination of market conditions preceding it has not been frequently observed before.

Solana (SOL): +525% Twitter volume

Solana (SOL) saw its average tweet volume increase more than four times compared to the previous month, yet almost all corresponding price gains got wiped out by the end of May: -31.48% against USD and +6.06% against Bitcoin.

Tweet volume largely lagged behind the price movement, with one notable exception: An outsized jump from 5,000 to 20,000 tweets on May 17 that contributed to an 80+ VORTECS™ score and came some 36 hours before the coin reached its all-time high near $58 (red circles in both charts).

Ethereum Classic (ETC): +321% Twitter volume

While the reasons behind Ethereum Classic suddenly surging from $40 to $160 in the first week of May remain a mystery, we can be fairly certain that an explosion in the volume of Twitter conversation was not one of them: All the added tweets came in response to the price rally.

The VORTECS™ algorithm hadn’t sensed a historically favorable outlook, either, as the score mostly remained in the neutral zone.

ETC ended the month with +67.36% vs. USD +158.85% vs. Bitcoin.

An uptick in Twitter activity around a digital asset can mean a variety of things, depending on the configuration of other important market and social indicators. The VORTECS™ Score, exclusively available to Cointelegraph Markets Pro members, can contextualize tweet volume within a constellation of other market-moving metrics.

For those who prefer to leverage raw data, the absolute number of tweets and current vs. average tweet volume are readily available as separate metrics on the market intelligence platform.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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VORTECS Report: How volatility drove one crypto trading strategy to 280x Bitcoin’s gains

by Cointelegraph

What does a highly volatile asset class offer traders, beyond palpitations and the occasional heart attack? Opportunity.

Nicole Wirick of Prosperity Wealth Strategies in Michigan summed it up for Forbes: “Market volatility is a normal part of investing and is to be expected in a portfolio. If markets went straight up, then investing would be easy and we’d all be rich.”

And during the decade-long bull market on Wall Street, some participants who should know better appear to have forgotten this, as they’ve become used to steadily-increasing stock prices over a period of years.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who infamously referred to Bitcoin as a “fraud” in 2017, told the U.S. House Financial Services Committee this week that “My own personal advice to people is: stay away from it.” And yet at his own shareholder meeting on May 18, he said that “A lot of our clients are asking, ‘can we help them buy or sell cryptocurrency? And we’re investing in that as we speak.”

So why is the CEO of the largest bank in the U.S. investing in something that he advises the rest of us not to touch?

Volatility is at the heart of that argument: It’s a classic case of “Do as I say, not as I do.” And Dimon, and many like him in traditional financial markets, make oodles of money when markets are choppy.

Of course, no markets are choppier than crypto.

Over the past few weeks, volatility has returned to the crypto markets, pushing Bitcoin as low as $30,000 before the king of digital assets swung back to exceed $40,000 again. And altcoins have swung even more dramatically — a phenomenon which has helped Cointelegraph Markets Pro’s quantitative algorithm, the VORTECS™ Score, to post extraordinary results in automated live testing.

This chart, produced on May 28 illustrates the results of the VORTECS™ Score’s performance since Jan 3 this year, when the algorithm went live. At the time of publication, one day later, the ROI on the top strategy is now over 3,000%.

In a score-based testing scenario, the algorithm “buys” a digital asset when the VORTECS™ Score crosses a certain threshold (e.g. 80), and “sells” it when it crosses a second threshold (e.g. 75).

Without employing fancy rebalancing techniques, but simply dividing the portfolio between all assets that currently require an investment, the algorithm has delivered a return of 3,037% for its highest-performing testing strategy — buying at 80, and selling when the asset crosses 80 again on the way back down.

For comparison, Bitcoin has generated returns of just 11.2% since Jan 3, and an evenly-weighted basket of the top 100 altcoins has returned 247%.

The only reason the VORTECS™ Score can deliver outsized returns like this is because crypto markets are volatile — which presents multiple entry and exit opportunities in a shorter timeframe than enjoyed by traders in traditional markets.

That may be partly a function of the 24/7 nature of crypto trading, but it’s also partly because the risk tolerance of cryptocurrency investors is generally agreed to be significantly higher than that of Wall Street CEOs… at least for short-term investing.

So while volatility has obvious downsides, including the risk of total and permanent loss, it also has major potential upside for traders who have strong research skills.

And strong research tools.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Important Disclaimer

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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Heads-up: How Livepeer traders got a sneak preview of an impending 300% price boom

by Cointelegraph

Crypto traders will take any edge they can get. From fundamental research on long-term prospects to short-term price pumps created by new exchange listings, the 24/7 digital asset market provides opportunities for investors and traders of all stripes.

But this week, those traders who incorporate the Cointelegraph Markets Pro VORTECS™ Score into their research had a special reason to celebrate the inherent volatility that makes risk-averse traders cringe… and seasoned crypto pros pop champagne corks.

LPT, the Ethereum-based native token of decentralized video streaming network Livepeer, has seen some extraordinary ups and downs over the last three months. Valued at less than $2.00 in mid-January, it soared on the news that Grayscale Investments, one of the blue chips of digital asset investment, had been poised to launch an LPT trust.

Another pump came on March 17, with the official validation of the news that saw the token to its then-ATH around $30. By early April, it was nearing $40 on the news of an OKEX listing.

The rest of April and early May were largely uneventful for Livepeer, before a series of bullish news items once more saw the token reach its current all-time high above $44 on May 11.

As the graph below rom Cointelegraph Markets Pro illustrates, that rally was strongly driven by two announcements, delivered to the platform’s users as instantaneous NewsQuake™ notifications: Listing on Bithumb exchange and start of SGD trading on Gemini (red circle in the graph).

Livepeer monthly chart on Cointelegraph Markets Pro

And then, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market tumbled… with Livepeer a major casualty.

The outlook became bleak for the asset as LPT embarked on an almost uninterrupted downward run that took it from its all-time high around $44 to the low of $11, registered on May 24.

Finally, this week brought good news that spelled a reversal of the negative trend. The VORTECS™ Score, an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions exclusive to Cointelegraph Markets Pro, identified conditions that have historically been favorable for LPT — giving members a heads-up that bullish conditions had been identified several hours before the tide’s actual reversal.

The score before the storm

Livepeer weekly chart on Cointelegraph Markets Pro

in the chart above the coin’s VORTECS™ score line went dark green at 81 (first red circle) whil the price was still searching for the bottom at around $11. VORTECS™ Scores above 80 generally indicate patterns of market and social activity that in the past consistently preceded significant increases in the asset’s price over the next 12-72 hours.

This spike coincided with Livepeer’s tweet of a new weekly record high in terms of the length of unique video transcoded — a real-world development that could convince investors that the asset had been undervalued.

Several hours later, the price began climbing (first red box), eventually reaching $24 on May 26. While still on the way to this local peak, the VORTECS™ algorithmic score went over 80 again (second red box), suggesting that previous runs like this one usually had second legs. Indeed, a small aftershock did come several hours later, taking the price from $32 to almost $36.

The outlook remains quite bullish for LPT, as May 28 saw another two high-profile listing announcements: one from Binance, and another from Kraken.

Sure enough, Markets Pro members have been seated in the front row for both, thanks to lightning-fast NewsQuakes™ delivered via mobile notifications and in-browser alerts. Even before these two announcements hit, Livepeer was 144% up this week, and clearly the coin’s gloomy streak is over for now.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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Pumped up by volume? 5 crypto assets that traders loved this month (and their prices)

by Cointelegraph

Trading volume — the amount of an asset that changed hands over a given period — is one of the key metrics that investors use to track price trends and assess the market outlook for a specific coin in terms of liquidity and trader activity.

The ranking below zooms in on the fortunes of five coins that have had the greatest increase in average daily trade volume this month compared to the month before. Most of them — although not all — emerged as massive winners in terms of their monthly returns, but the relationship between the price and trading was not always what you’d expect.

The data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro platform sheds further light how these two indicators can influence each other.

Along with multiple other quantitative metrics, trading volume is at the heart of the VORTECS™ Score — an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions derived from billions of data points gathered and analyzed by a proprietary machine learning model.

Polygon (MATIC ): +643.79%

Capitalizing on the sprawling activity in the DeFi sector and the expansion of the number of projects springing up on its platform, Polygon has had a fantastic month, conquering one all-time high (ATH) after another. The coin delivered 329% vs. USD and 456% vs. BTC alongside a 643% increase in average daily trading volume.

The trading volume dynamics faithfully followed each price uptick, reaching an impressive $11 billion on May 19. On that day, MATIC was responsible for as much as 4.5% of the crypto market’s overall trading volume.

From the look at the VORTECS™ score chart, it becomes apparent that trading volume spikes have been an essential component of each ultra high-score stretch that MATIC sported this month (red circles in the graph). These dark-green sequences, in turn, foreshadowed each new leg of the coin’s powerful rally.

Ethereum Classic (ETC): +229.23%

A legacy chain of the original Ethereum that has been abandoned by much of the community in the wake of the 2016 the DAO heist, ETC has a small but enthusiastic fanbase and a reputation of a network lacking security.

Observers are divided on what exactly triggered ETC’s 300% price run, closely followed by surging trading volume, in the first week of May. Opinions range from users suddenly seeking cheaper alternatives to the main Ethereum network to new investors mistaking the coin for its better-known cousin.

At any rate, at the height of its May 6 rally, ETC commanded a shocking 15.9% of the crypto market’s overall trading volume — not too bad for a coin that has risen from years of oblivion.

Going by the VORTECS™ chart, not only ETC’s showing was unexpected – it was historically unparalleled. The combination of market and social conditions that preceded the coin’s blast-off was not similar to those that systematically came before ETC’s price leaps in the past, as evidenced by largely neutral VORTECS™ Scores.

Telcoin (TEL): +507.8%

Telcoin, a global remittance platform whose token appreciated by 437% against USD and 600% vs. Bitcoin over the past month, owes at least some of its success to Polygon’s fiery run. The likely reason behind TEL’s surge in early May has been a layer-2 migration to the lower-fee Polygon network and the token’s subsequent listing on QuickSwap that opened attractive terms for liquidity providers.

As visible in the graph, it was the QuickSwap moment that produced the greatest increase in TEL’s trading volume rather than the even bigger price hike that followed a few days after.

It was the same surge in trading activity between May 2 and 8 that the VORTECS™ algorithm picked up and, in conjunction with other constituent metrics, deemed worthy of a series of high VORTECS™ Scores that began flashing around three days before the final leg of the price hike.

iExec RLC (RLC): +1,153.62%

RLC, the native token of cloud computing platform iExec, demonstrated the greatest month-to-month growth in average daily trading volume, adding an astounding 1,153% compared to the previous 30-day period. The coin’s price began picking up following the May 4 announcement of a Coinbase Pro listing and was boosted even more by a cascade of further exchange listings, big-name partnerships and collaborations, as well as the announcement of a developer rewards program. Over the month, RLC delivered 200% gains against USD and almost 300% against Bitcoin.

As the chart supplied by data analytics firm The TIE suggests, on May 8 and early May 9 the trading volume indicator mirrored the steeply upward price movement with a few hours’ lag. The two lines then effectively merged, indicating that further increase in trading volume was no longer driven solely by price action, but began responding to the news and heightening sentiment around the coin independently.

As visible in the graph, RLC’s VORTECS™ score had been neutral (yellow) in the days preceding the coin price’s spike, and briefly turned moderately bullish (light green) as the rally unfolded. However, when both the price and trading volume peaked, the VORTECS™ Score went from bullish back to neutral (red boxes in the graph), meaning that in the past such concerted upticks in both price and trading volume were not followed by price consistently going up or down.

In summary, RLC’s run this month did not have clear historical precedents in terms of market and social activity regularities that VORTECS™ score could capture. Rather, it has been driven by a series of bullish news announcements. This is where another element of Markets Pro functionality, NewsQuakes™, comes into play: In the same graph, it is plain to see how two listing announcements, on Coinbase Pro and Bithumb (red circle in the chart), came shortly before the rally.

OKB Token: +253.28%

The average daily trading volume of the OKEx exchange token, OKB, grew by more than 250% this month. However, this fact did not translate to a corresponding increase in the utility token’s price: Over the same 30 days, OKB lost 18.76% against USD and gained a mere 4.89% against the beleaguered Bitcoin.

A look at the token’s price vs. trading volume chart offers some explanation of this discrepancy. While trading volume largely mirrored price movement in the first half of the month, the two starkly diverged around May 19 and 20, around the time of the market-wide slump. As the price declined, the trading volume shot up.

This key to this seemingly paradoxical dynamic lies in the nature of the asset. In a bid to keep the value of the token high, every three months OKEx reduces OKB supply by buying back burning a few million coins. As the current burning period is set to expire at the end of May, some traders likely wagered on OKB staying afloat thanks to the guaranteed buyback liquidity when other digital assets were in a tailspin. Indeed, a surge in trading volume did support a brief rebound, yet it could only be sustained for a couple of days before the asset began sliding down again.

Note how the VORTECS™ algorithm remained unfazed by the May 20 increase in trading volume as the score remained neutral. A constantly learning model, it has surely seen such token burn-inspired spikes before — and apparently, in the past these spikes didn’t always spell significant price increases.

Any single metric describing an asset’s market outlook can be uninformative or even misleading on its own, yet it becomes exponentially more useful when contextualized within the recurring patterns of the VORTECS™ algorithm’s other metrics (which include price action, sentiment, and tweet volume).

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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VORTECS Report: Dammit, Musk, now you’re messing with AAVE too?

by Cointelegraph

Who knew what, and when did they know it?

Investigating Watergate in 1973, Senator Howard Baker Jr. wanted the answer. Thanks to a couple of journalists, he eventually got it. And while the stakes may not be as high, the team at Cointelegraph Markets Pro is pretty curious about some interesting crypto data this week.

The VORTECS™ Score includes sentiment analysis, tweet and trading volume, and price action as components of the algorithm — which are then weighted according to a proprietary formula based on how similar these are to historical conditions.

If there is a similarity in these factors, the score will be higher when historical precedents have most consistently led to higher prices.

But while the score is algorithmically-generated, the raw data can sometimes tell a story too.

AAVE Idea

First off, here’s a chart of tweet volume for AAVE this week, charted against the price of the DeFi asset.

Tweets are obviously public information, but what are the chances that most retail participants in the crypto markets are able to absorb this outlier and analyze its meaning? The VORTECS™ Score can, however — it’s untouched by human hands, and since one of the components is based on the entire Twitter universe (most algos are only fed a subsection of the full firehose) it is essentially omnipotent when it comes to tweet data.

And sure enough, the VORTECS™ Score began to rise very shortly after this large spike in tweet volume, as seen in the chart below.

So what’s going on here? An AAVE Army arising to pump the token? Some kind of amazing news that only affected the price 24 hours later?

Well here’s the kicker for all those conspiracy theorists out there: this is pure coincidence. Plain and simple.

And in fact it all comes back to Elon Musk… in a roundabout way. Because everything in crypto does these days.

On Saturday Night Live this week, which was hosted by the Doge fanboy, he participated in a sketch featuring the acronym ‘AAVE’, which appears to have resulted in a large volume of tweets concerning “African-American Vernacular English” over the next couple of days.

In fact, even the Urban Dictionary tweeted about the acronym, though the tweet is (as might be expected from such an august website) NSFW. The show’s co-head writer was accused of cultural appropriation as a result of using certain Black vernacular terms in the show, and as we all know, outrage drives social media.

So… here’s a fantastic learning moment for sentiment analysis in the crypto market: Proof that causation and correlation are not the same thing.

As it happens, AAVE (the crypto asset) did indeed soar following the uptick in Twitter volume for the term AAVE (an acronym). And although the VORTECS™ Score picks apart tweets using artificial intelligence to remove those that don’t fit the context that the algorithm is seeking… perhaps this time it was fooled. But don’t worry — Markets Pro will be filtering for this term in future.

Damn you, Elon Musk!

Alpha before Alpha?

Alpha Finance has no Musk connection (as far as we know) so we’re just going to treat this as a curious outlier.

The red arrow in the chart below shows an unusual pattern of reported trading for 24 hours which was followed by the price of ALPHA moving up by almost 50%.

It turns out Alpha Finance had some news of its own this week as the team announced on May 10 that they’d be launching an oracle aggregator.

Following this unusual pattern and the release of the news, the VORTECS™ Score began to rise too.

As is often the case when price rises, the trading volume soared in conjunction with price action. But the steep introduction to the May 9 outlier, and its equally steep decline, could lead one to believe that this was a trading bot being turned on and off again.

So why would anyone move the trading volume so significantly in advance of an important news story… and how would they time it so well?

Or in other words… who knew what, and when did they know it?

Best returns from Cointelegraph Markets Pro live-tested strategies

The Markets Pro team has been tracking 42 possible strategies since the launch of the VORTECS™ algorithm on January 3rd 2021. Current top returns, as detailed in this document on the methodology used, are as follows:

Holding Bitcoin: 47% return

Holding Top 100 altcoins: 426% return

Best-performing time-based VORTECS™ strategy: 3,199% return

Best-performing score-based VORTECS™ strategy: 3,682% return

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to member on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Important Disclaimer

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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VORTECS Report: NewsQuakes boost DOGE hype, while TEL score rings a bell for traders

by Cointelegraph

What can you say about Dogecoin that hasn’t been said before? How about this: Elon Musk’s tweets aren’t the only thing that let the DOGE out.

This week, right in the middle of the retail trading frenzy that has turned everyone’s favorite cartoon puppy into a rabid bull-doge, Cointelegraph Markets Pro subscribers had the opportunity to chow down on a NewsQuake™ from Bitfinex, which can be seen as further exciting a rally all the way from $0.48 to $0.68.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Analysis

In the chart below you can see where the news was delivered to Markets Pro members via Discord and their mobile notifications (the red circle) and the immediate and dramatic price rise that followed.

NewsQuakes™ are sourced from a real-time aggregation engine, collated from over a thousand primary sources every minute and analyzed by an AI algorithm to determine the historical significance of the news. NewsQuakes™ are trained on staking announcements, exchange listings and key partnerships, and because they are delivered without human intervention, they can often be the fastest way for market participants to learn about major events in the cryptocurrency space.

In this case, everything seems to have worked as if it was a regular coin: A listing on a big exchange resulted in immediate price action that began to recede after roughly a day. Yet, when dealing with Dogecoin-related news, it doesn’t hurt to exercise caution and remember that this asset’s relationship with the news cycle is unlike any other.

iExec (RLC) Analysis

On the subject of NewsQuakes™ there was another perfect example this week of how the early trader gets the profits.

iExec (RLC) was hit by two consecutive NewsQuakes™, helping the asset add around 70% of value over the week. On May 4 came the announcement of a Coinbase listing – traditionally a very powerful type of news (first red circle in the chart below).

A similar announcement from Bithumb came in just 36 hours after the first, compounding the coin’s momentum (second red circle).

At this point, it becomes challenging to attribute the price dynamic to one of the two events, since the Coinbase announcement’s effects hadn’t yet expired (the system looks at 72-hour returns) when Bithumb’s kicked in.

Those Markets Pro subscribers who quickly acted on either of the NewsQuakes™ are likely fine with not knowing the exact contributions of each listing, however. In both cases, the value of being first to the news is clear from the immediate positive price action.

Telcoin (TEL) Analysis

This analysis wouldn’t be complete without a word about Telcoin (TEL), which rallied dramatically to ascend from just $0.11 to over $0.48 shortly after a Markets Pro member suggested adding the cryptocurrency to the platform.

While VORTECS™ Scores can take time to generate, they still look at the entire trading history of the newly-listed asset — thus when Telcoin’s first VORTECS™ Score was displayed, the algorithm already had clear confidence in bullish conditions for the token.

As seen in the chart below, VORTECS™ continued to identify strong bullish momentum even as the price rose, peaking at an almost-unprecedented score of 95 around 48 hours before the final push towards the $0.48 price spike.

The VORTECS™ Score is available exclusive to Cointelegraph Markets Pro members, and includes sentiment analysis, tweet and trading volume, and price action as components of the algorithm — which are then weighted according to a proprietary formula based on how similar these are to historical conditions. If there is a similarity in these factors, the score will be higher when historical precedents have most consistently led to higher prices.

VORTECS™ Score returns since January 3

The Markets Pro team has been tracking 42 sample strategies since January 3 2021, based on entering a position when the VORTECS™ Score crosses a threshold, and exiting it either when another score is reached or after a set period of time. The following data is taken from a snapshot on May 8th 2021 at 1pm ET. The full methodology is available here.

Holding Bitcoin: 79% return

Holding Top 100 altcoins: 485% return

Best-performing time-based VORTECS™ strategy (Enter 80 / Exit 24 hours): 2,467% return

Best-performing score-based VORTECS™ strategy (Enter 80, Exit re-crossing 80): 2,800% return

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to subscribers on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Important Disclaimer

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

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VORTECS Report: Markets Pro sounds the alert as RUNE, DOGE and XRP skyrocket

by Cointelegraph

It’s been a spectacular week for the Cointelegraph Markets Pro VORTECS™ Score, which alerted subscribers to several of the top crypto asset price movers hours before the price began to climb.

DOGE analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been the standout performer of the week, confounding analysts who look for fundamental strengths in an asset — the meme coin may not have much of a team, or a genuine use-case, but it has Elon Musk, Mark Cuban… and the support of their millions of fans.

Dogecoin crossed the 80 VORTECS™ line on the morning of April 13, when the price curve was still flat at around $0.073 (first red circle). Apparently, the model has recognized a familiar confluence of celebrity tweets and rising trading volume. Closer to the early hours of April 14, the price line followed suit, pumping all the way to $0.141 (first two red boxes in the graph).

And just as expected, after a rapid climb VORTECS™ anticipated a price decline (second red circle), as has happened many times in the recent past with Dogecoin. Although it was not particularly dramatic, a correction to $0.110 followed in several hours (third red box).

While the 7-day graph above, captured on April 15, demonstrates the VORTECS™ Score operating exactly as hoped, a later capture on April 17 (below) illustrates the limitations of any dynamic modeling algorithm entering unfamiliar territory.

The VORTECS™ Score includes sentiment analysis, tweet and trading volume, and price action as components of the algorithm — which are then weighted according to a proprietary formula based on how similar these are to historical conditions. If there is a similarity in these factors, the score will be higher when historical precedents have most consistently led to higher prices.

But with DOGE this week, there are almost no parallels in history — after breaking all-time highs, the coin just kept climbing. Since VORTECS™ was unable to see historic similarities to this rapid ascent, it stayed fairly neutral after the initial wave of buying (orange box).

XRP analysis

Ripple’s XRP cryptocurrency continued its glorious comeback this week after a series of mild setbacks for the Securities and Exchange Commission in their case against the company, making it to the Top Performers section of the second consecutive VORTECS™ report. On April 12, it entered a streak of dark green VORTECS™ scores at around $1.37. Some 12 hours later, it took off to eventually reach $1.93 (first and second red boxes).

RUNE analysis

THORChain recorded a series of high VORTECS™ values during downward price movement toward a low point of $10.67. Roughly 26 hours later, the price began climbing toward the subsequent high point of $16.46, a 54% improvement compared to the moment when the first dark green score was detected.

The IOST NewsQuake™

The April 13 announcement of a Binance staking promo featuring IOStoken carried the asset to a 53% price increase over 24 hours. Note how there are actually two NewsQuake™ symbols on the token’s VORTECS™ graph sitting close to each other. This is not a glitch: Although the substance of the news is nearly identical, one represents a Medium post by IOS Foundation, while the other marks a tweet from Binance’s official account.

In a game where minutes can make a difference, Markets Pro strives to deliver actionable news as soon as it becomes available. NewsQuakes™ are sourced from a real-time aggregation engine, collated from over a thousand primary sources every minute and analyzed by an AI algorithm to determine the historical significance of the news. NewsQuakes™ are trained on staking announcements, exchange listings and key partnerships, and because they are delivered without human intervention, they can often be the fastest way for market participants to learn about major events in the cryptocurrency space.

VORTECS™ Score testing results

Cointelegraph Markets Pro continues to track 42 separate live-tested strategies, using a simple method described here.

These strategies are based on time-based or score-based exits. For example, the current top-performing strategy since testing began is the Buy 90 / Exit after 168 hour strategy, which measures the price of an asset the moment its VORTECS™ Score crosses the 90 threshold, and then again exactly 168 hours from that initial measurement. The difference is the return on investment (ROI) that is recorded.

That strategy has delivered a ROI of 1,837% since January 5, which compares favorably to holding Bitcoin (87% ROI) or holding an equally-weighted basket of altcoins (470% ROI) over the same time period.

However, all strategies have blips — this week, strategies based on entrance points of 90 underperformed those with entry points of 80, illustrating that even the most advanced algorithms can pick a few duds from time to time.

It’s been a spectacular week for the Cointelegraph Markets Pro VORTECS™ Score, which alerted subscribers to several of the top crypto asset price moves hours before the price began to climb.

Time-based strategies: All-time ROI

Score-based strategies: All-time ROI

Time-based strategies: Weekly ROI

Score-based strategies: Weekly ROI

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to subscribers on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Important Disclaimer

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

Source

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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 26,556.12 0.29%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,592.75 0.07%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 64.87 0.13%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 207.56 0.85%