Overheated DOGE: 5 times crypto traders were warned before their assets tanked

Everybody loves a crypto bull market, but every green wave inevitably gives way to periods of sideways or downward movement.

Skilled traders know that these phases of the market cycle can be rife with profit opportunities, too. Anticipating not only a digital asset’s upward price movements, but downturns and corrections can be useful when deciding on when to exit a position and lock in gains, as well helping to add toprofits by shorting crypto assets whose prices decline.

In addition to a keen eye and common sense, anticipating price drops can be aided by data intelligence tools. One AI-driven indicator that can help investors see the signs of an upcoming dip early is the VORTECS™ Score, exclusively available to the members of Cointelegraph Markets Pro.

Its job is to sift through years’ worth of historical data and identify whether the combination of market and social conditions around each asset looks like those that preceded sharp upward or downward price action in the past.

At any given moment, a cryptocurrency token’s high VORTECS™ Score means that its outlook is historically bullish; but low scores below 30 indicate that in the past, the observed patterns were often followed by price drops.

Red VORTECS™ Scores are much rarer than dark-green ones. The most common scenario where such scores can be observed is when crypto assets see flash rallies, get overbought, and then see massive corrections.

Here are five conspicuous instances of red VORTECS™ Scores flashing on crypto assets before their prices tanked.

DOGE: Memecoin gets overheated

VORTECS™ Score (green/red) vs. DOGE price, Apr. 8 – 15. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Dogecoin (DOGE) presented an instance of very high and very low VORTECS™ Scores following each other closely in the week of Apr. 8.

The asset’s score went above 80 on the morning of Apr. 13, when the price curve was still flat at around $0.073 (first red circle). Apparently, the model has sensed a familiar arrangement of celebrity tweets and rising trading volume. Less than 12 hours later, the price line followed suit, pumping all the way to $0.141.

Even before the price reached its peak value, however, the algorithm signaled that historically Dogecoin’s rallies were followed by rebounds, as the VORTECS™ Score dipped into the red area below 30. A correction to $0.110 followed in several hours.

While the VORTECS™ Score is not designed to tell investors when to go long or short, it can provide a useful indication of historically bullish or bearish conditions for a particular asset — information that can be profitably incorporated into a trading strategy.

COTI: Massive spike, hard comedown

VORTECS™ Score (green/red) vs. COTI price, Aug. 21 – 27. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Following a sharp hike from $0.29 to $0.45 within an hour that occurred on Aug. 26, the price of COTI began to succumb to a correction.

It quickly dropped to $0.37 and then attempted to gain upside traction again as it rose to $0.42.

At this point, the VORTECS™ algorithm recognized similarities between the observed conditions and COTI’s past price corrections, lighting up a red score (red circle in the graph) when the price was still on its way up. The flash was well-placed, within two hours, COTI reversed its course and fell back to around $0.35.

NEAR: A dip or second leg up?

VORTECS™ Score (green/red) vs. NEAR price, Sept. 5 – 12. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Between Sept. 7 and 9, NEAR Protocol soared from $6.00 to $11.58 within three days. The question on all crypto traders’ minds was: Where will NEAR go next?

Several hours after the price peak, the token’s VORTECS™ Score dipped below 30 (red circle in the graph), informing Markets Pro subscribers that historical precedent suggested an imminent decline rather than another leg of the rally.

NEAR’s price was at around $11.00 and still going up when its score flashed red; 36 hours later, it was down to $9.00

NMR: Red Score at a price peak

VORTECS™ Score (green/red) vs. NMR price, Apr. 2 – 8. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Numeraire (NMR) was doing great on April 4 and 5, and its price was still headed toward the peak of $78.07 when its VORTECS™ Score dropped below 30 (red circle in the graph). This suggested that in the past NMR’s similar rallies were followed by the price cooling off quickly.

Sure enough, the correction kicked in in less than two hours after the lowest Score, NMR’s price sliding back to around $63.00 within the following two days.

STX: Green before price rises, red before it drops

VORTECS™ Score (green/red) vs. STX price, Oct. 7 – 14. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

In the week of Oct. 8, Stacks (STX) managed to light up both an ultra-low and ultra-high VORTECS™ Scores, all within two consecutive days. On Oct. 9-11, STX had seen a strong rally from $1.44 to $2.29, after which the token’s price began to decline.

At that point, the VORTECS™ algorithm recognized a combination of factors that in the past preceded extended corrections, flashing a red score (first circle in the chart). Indeed, STX soon embarked on a downward trajectory for the following 30 hours, dipping all the way back to $1.86.

However, in the middle of the pullback, the coin’s VORTECS™ Score went up sharply, reaching a high of 88 against a still-declining price. Apparently, market and social conditions around the coin flipped bullish again as in the past similar massive corrections were followed by even greater upsides.

Sure enough, 16 hours after the peak VORTECS™ Score of the week had been registered, STX’s rally resumed toward the week’s high price at $2.39.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro’s VORTECS™ Score is available to members here.

Disclaimer. Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.


Tagged : / / / / / /

The Holy Grail for crypto traders: Consistent average returns over 5%

If you look at crypto assets’ price movements as a series of isolated events, the picture is messy. Sure, some traders can occasionally win big off one-time events or thanks to sensing a meme-inspired trend.

In the long run, however, most of these “fortuitous” traders tend to lose.

Why? Because they have to pick big-time winners to cover all the times they miss their targets.

For every Shiba Inu, there were a thousand coins that didn’t moon.

Which is why crypto traders who employ processes rather than try to predict events are more likely to fill their bags in the long run.

They trade on probabilities rather than hoping that Token X goes parabolic next week. They win on aggregate numbers instead of sexy-looking one-offs. If you offered them average weekly returns of over 5% on trades… they’d bite your hand off.

The table below shows average returns following high VORTECS™ Scores generated by Cointelegraph Markets Pro’s historical analysis.

Good things come to those who wait

There are two unmistakable trends here. Firstly, the higher the VORTECS™ Score, the greater the average returns. In other words, the more confident the algorithm is that the historical conditions around the coin are bullish, the more likely this asset is to deliver greater gains after the high score was registered.

Secondly, time is of consequence. The algorithm has been trained on a fuzzy time frame with the emphasis on identifying favorable conditions that may materialize over several days.

The more time passes after the signs of a historically favorable outlook are recognized by the VORTECS™ algorithm, the better, on average, the asset’s price performance looks. Favorable conditions shaping up around high-scoring tokens generate the greatest price increases after 168 hours (one week) from first showing up on the algorithm’s radar.

Doing the crypto trading math

A 5 or 6% return on investment over a week may not seem a lot, in these days of bull market plenty. Don’t be fooled.

Studies show that short-term traders often lose money. One recent paper estimated that “97% of all individuals who persisted for 300 days” in the Brazilian equities futures market fell into this category. Other studies have demonstrated similar results.

So to find an algorithm that can generate consistently positive average returns over accurately measured periods of time is — well, the Holy Grail for crypto traders.

Is it infallible? Absolutely not. Again, don’t be fooled. The VORTECS™ algorithm has thrown up plenty of scores that suggested bullish conditions, and yet prices failed to rise.

What this table shows is the AVERAGE return over a specific time frame following an arbitrary score.

But what this table PROVES is that VORTECS™ does exactly what it is designed to do. It consistently identifies market conditions for specific crypto assets that have been historically bullish, and employs confidence modeling to determine a score that traders can use as part of their decision making.

VORTECS™ Score ROI methodology and background

The VORTECS™ Score is an AI-powered algorithm exclusively available to Cointelegraph Markets Pro members.

The tool is trained to search for historical patterns of price change, trading activity and social sentiment around 200-plus digital assets, ringing the alarm whenever the arrangement of these metrics starts to resemble those that, in the past, consistently showed up before price increases.

The higher the VORTECS™ Score at any given moment, the greater the model’s confidence.

The table presents average price changes across all digital assets that hit VORTECS™ Scores of 80, 85, and 90 after fixed intervals, from the moment the Score was first registered. The period of observation is the entire period of CT Markets Pro platform’s operation, from early Jan. to late Nov. 2021., or almost 11 months.

For this analysis, each asset could only yield one observation per day, i.e. if a coin went from 79 to 81, then back to 79 and then to 80 once again within a few hours, only its first entry to 80+ would count.

This way, we ensured that the analysis did not give disproportional representation to instances of more volatile VORTECS™ Scores as opposed to those times when assets went above reference thresholds and maintained high Scores for longer times.

The average price movement figures that you see in the table are aggregated from hundreds of digital assets hitting high VORTECS™ Scores over the observed period of almost 11 months.

They reflect crypto assets’ performances in bull, bear, and sideways markets, in both Bitcoin season and Altseason, and for all sorts of assets from DEX tokens to layer one platforms and privacy coins.

Start using the VORTECS™ algorithm today!

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.


Tagged : / / / / / / /

Seeing red? FUD that! Here’s what you should have bought instead of Bitcoin last week

We’ve argued many times in the past that the correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the market capitalization of hundreds of altcoins makes very little sense.

Whether you buy into the idea that Bitcoin is digital gold, or a payment mechanism, or both, it doesn’t have a whole lot in common with Ethereum, Shiba Inu, or FTX’s native exchange token.

Well, whether we like it or not, big moves in the price of Bitcoin define crypto markets.

Before Bitcoin slid from the latest all-time high above $68,000 back to the region of $55,000 last week, dragging most altcoins down with it, the crypto market had seen six straight weeks of virtually uninterrupted growth.

But as soon as the market turns red, as it did last week, many traders tend to succumb to three old enemies: Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).

Which is why we say: FUD that. Experienced crypto traders know that periods of correction can also present profit opportunities. And Cointelegraph Markets Pro’s own VORTECS™ Score found six of the ten best-performing altcoins last week, even as the market took a dive.

Unparalleled bull runs, lookalike corrections?

The VORTECS™ Score is a machine learning-powered trading algorithm that compares historic and current market conditions in digital asset markets to aid crypto traders’ decision-making.

The model takes in a host of quantitative indicators — including price movement, social sentiment, and trading activity — to arrive at a score that assesses whether the present conditions are historically bullish, neutral, or bearish for over 200 cryptocurrencies.

A VORTECS™ Score of 80 or above is considered confidently bullish for the next 12-72 hours. Assets that achieve such scores exhibit arrangements of key trading and social variables that in the past came before significant price increases.

The table below shows ten altcoins that delivered significant return on investment between Nov. 11 and 18 — the week that saw Bitcoin plunge from $68,000 to $58,000.

In bold are those tokens that hit a VORTECS™ Score of 80 or higher before reaching their peak price of the week.

Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Six of the best crypto trading opportunities

Six out of ten of the week’s top performing assets exhibited patterns of trading and social behavior that closely resembled historically bullish combinations before they rallied.

  • The Sandbox (SAND)
  • Crypto.com coin (CRO)
  • Voyager (VGX)
  • Koinos Network (KOIN)
  • TomoChain (TOMO)
  • AirSwap (AST)

Six out of ten is significant, given that the overall number of tokens that yielded any gains has been very modest.

What does it say about the nature of the crypto market? When things are bullish, altcoins can rally for an infinite number of reasons, oftentimes simply due to a favorable macro context and exuberance taking over the market.

But when much of the market is going south, analysis suggests that tokens supported by robust trading activity and high social sentiment are most likely to buck the trend.

These are also the times when traders need reliable data analytics to inform their strategies the most. When the floor is lava, it helps to have an extra pair of algorithmic eyes sifting through millions of data points to identify potential safe havens.

This is exactly what the VORTECS™ Score is trained to do.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.


Tagged : / / / / / / / / / / /

Crypto trading face-off: Shiba Inu (78 million percent in a year) vs Koinos (535% in a month)

The story of Shiba Inu (SHIB), crypto’s best-performer of the year, still boggles the mind — even after multiple retellings. Just 12 months ago, the price of one SHIB token had ten zeros in front of it: $0.000000000063 on volume of $682.58, according to CoinGecko.

By late October of this year, six of those zeros had gone and Shiba Inu had flippened Dogecoin to become the largest dog-themed token in the world, a top-ten cryptocurrency worth around $47 billion.

Despite dropping almost 40% from that all-time high, SHIB still sits at a market cap of almost $29 billion — making it almost 350 times more valuable than our contender, Koinos Network (KOIN).

Koinos Network has been the best-performer of the week on the Cointelegraph Markets Pro data and intelligence platform, where the proprietary VORTECS™ Score served up a hugely bullish series of 90+ scores over the last two weeks.

Following those scores, KOIN soared from a previous high of around $0.22 to a recent high-water mark of $0.95 — still comfortably below a $100 million market cap.

What do these two projects have in common? Almost nothing… except their strong performances in the markets.

So for crypto investors who can’t decide between canine memecoins and layer-1 blockchain platforms… here’s a tongue-in-cheek analysis of their comparative strengths.


Koinos is a foundational, or layer-1, smart contract blockchain platform that aims to deliver a variety of technical innovations. Firstly, it’s designed to be modular — meaning that it should be more easily upgradeable than current blockchains, and could potentially eliminate hard forks.

It is also built to be feeless, which the team claims will help onboard many more people to blockchain-based decentralized applications. And it has universal language support, a feature that may help more developers deploy those applications without learning a new skillset. It’s currently operating in the testnet phase.

Shiba Inu has virtually no technical features that distinguish it from other memecoins, and its use-cases are essentially restricted to trading.

Winner: Koinos


Shiba Inu has over 1.9 million followers on Twitter; a Reddit page with 425,000 members; and almost a million active wallets. Its followers are among the busiest in crypto and Cointelegraph can hardly publish an article on social media these days without a host of SHIB shillers leaping into the comments. The community is engaged, active… in fact downright rabid in their enthusiasm for all things Shiba Inu.

Koinos has precisely 1,500 followers on Twitter at the time of writing, and its Discord channel mainly contains arcane discussions on microservice architecture.

Winner: Shiba Inu (by a mile)


Koinos is being developed by the core team that previously worked on the STEEM blockchain, and who resigned en masse when that project was ‘acquired’ by Tron founder Justin Sun.

Shiba Inu’s creator, Ryoshi (which is Japanese for ‘fisherman’) is a pseudonymous developer who insists that he, she, or they are not in charge of anything. Marketing appears to be a strong suit, however.

Winner: Koinos

Market Cap / Upside Potential

Koinos has a market cap of just over $83 million at the time of writing. Its entire supply of 99.5 million tokens is already in circulation, all of which were distributed during a ‘fair mining’ period during which anyone with a computer could mine KOIN ERC-20 tokens.

Shiba Inu famously has a total supply of a quadrillion tokens, of which almost 55 billion are in circulation. With a market cap of almost $29 billion, it is currently the world’s 11th-largest cryptocurrency.

Upside potential is hard to judge, but Koinos is seeking to join the ranks of layer-1 platforms like Ethereum, Solana, Cardano and Polkadot, four of the world’s top tokens by market cap with a joint value of almost $750 billion.

If KOIN was to attain just 1% of Ethereum’s market cap, it would need to be worth $5.55 billion — in other words, it would have to multiply 6,687x from its current price.

With no natural peers besides Dogecoin (sitting one place ahead of it at $34 billion in market capitalization) its most aspirational rival might be Bitcoin, with a market cap of $1.226 trillion. SHIB is already at over 2.3% of Bitcoin’s value, which appears to limit its potential upside. Indeed it might be argued that SHIB has already peaked.

Winner: Koinos (by a mile)


Unrealized gains are just that. With a trading volume in excess of $1.73 billion over the last 24 hours, SHIB token trades on the world’s top exchanges — including Binance, Coinbase, OKEx, Huobi, Bitfinex and KuCoin. It’s huge. It’s immense. It’s a monster.

KOIN, however, is only available via Uniswap at the current time, where its volume over the last day is a paltry $283,000.

Winner: Shiba Inu


Shiba Inu allows holders to acquire massive stacks of tokens (millions and millions!) at low cost. Its community is enthusiastic and excitable, the memes are awesome, and as the ecosystem expands, more products and tokens (LEASH, BONE) help drive a feeling of inclusion and joy.

And let’s face it, the dog’s damn cute.

Koinos is a serious, thoughtful, deeply technical blockchain with no cute and cuddly critters in sight. As an infrastructure project, its core features are entirely devoid of Japanese hunting dogs or indeed dogs of any kind. Shame on you.

Winner: Shiba Inu


Shiba Inu has Elon Musk. When the world’s richest man tweeted that he owned no SHIB, the price dropped 20% in a day. And Vitalik Buterin was uninterested enough to donate the SHIB he was gifted (now worth $21 billion) with barely a second thought.

As a memecoin it can only be sustained as long as there’s interest. When that attention moves elsewhere, as it has done with numerous virally-driven cryptos and stocks this year, SHIB may find that it needs to add more bite to its bark.

Koinos may not deliver on the team’s ambitious goals. Or it may not find enough developers to sustain a healthy ecosystem. Or the world may simply decide that we have enough layer-1 blockchains right now, and keep plowing tens of millions into existing projects like Solana.

Like any layer-1, Koinos will need both developer interest and killer dApps to rival the big players in the space. Neither of those is a given.

Winner: None

Final Score: Tie

While Koinos screams seriousness, Shiba Inu yaps fun — and in the strangest of years for investors, both of these tokens are finding audiences with whom their value proposition resonates.

Whatever your crypto trading strategy — whether it be based on the fundamental strengths of a project’s technology or the immense power of its community — Cointelegraph Markets Pro can be a useful addition to your investing research toolbox.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.


Tagged : / / / / / / / /

Green means go: 5 spectacular altcoin rallies with one thing in common

In crypto trading we often see entire sectors move in tandem. DeFi coins may all curve upwards together, while metaverse tokens soared on news that Facebook’s getting a Facelift.

But this week’s group of top crypto performers have very little in common… except one trading indicator that lit up in pulsating green neon letters before their prices trended upward.

We’re looking today at:

  • Polygon (MATIC) — a layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum
  • Aave (imaginatively, AAVE) — a decentralized finance (DeFi) asset
  • Voyager (VGX) — a crypto trading platform
  • Koinos (KOIN) — a feeless foundational blockchain built for scalability
  • Linear (LINA) — a cross-chain asset protocol

All have delivered major gains over the last month, and despite their differences they have one thing in common.

Each one achieved a VORTECS™ Score in excess of 90 before reaching their peak price levels.

In fact, all these tokens exhibited patterns of trading and social behavior that were strikingly similar to conditions in the past that preceded rallies. And once these tremendously robust trading conditions were detected, most of these cryptos entered virtuous cycles wherein their price dynamics generated increased trading and tweet volumes, which, in turn, powered the next phase of a rally.

Was there a chance for traders to hop on these moon-bound shuttles early?

A sign of extreme confidence

The indicator that screamed of the extremely bullish conditions is called the VORTECS™ Score, a tool available via Cointelegraph’s subscription-based data intelligence platform, Markets Pro.

Its job is to compare the current trading and sentiment conditions to historically-similar situations, and to alert traders when bullish patterns are detected. Live testing of the VORTECS algorithm has been ongoing for over ten months.

A VORTECS™ Score above 80 is considered confidently bullish. On average, there are from 30 to 50 weekly instances of assets crossing the 80-score threshold.

Scores of 90 or above, however, are rare. In an average week, there are usually no more than 4-5 instances of such scores, and sometimes a full week can pass without a single 90.

These ultra-high scores signify the algorithm’s strong confidence that the observed conditions are similar to those that preceded an asset’s stellar price performance in the past. As previously reported, scores above 90 sometimes precede price appreciation that can last for several days.

Here is how it worked with some of the highest-VORTECS™ assets this past month.

KOIN: +100% after peak score

KOIN, an asset whose first VORTECS™ Score had been calculated on Nov. 5, was off to a formidable start right out of the gate. The asset’s score touched the 90 mark several hours after its debut at the price of 22 cents.

Within a day, it reached a high of $0.44, a 100% increase. The pump was accompanied by additional 432% of trading volume and 221% of the usual level of tweets.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. KOIN price, Oct. 31 – Nov. 6. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

It’s possible that the particularly striking results of the Koinos price appreciation event are partly attributable to its low market capitalization, which stood at just $20 million before the dramatic price rise.

MATIC: +35% after peak VORTECS Score

MATIC’s stellar run this month has been powered by a surge in the number of active Polygon addresses, as well as project launches on the Polygon network. The asset’s peak VORTECS™ Score of 94.2 came on Oct. 16 (red circle in the chart), when the asset was trading at $1.56.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. MATIC price, Oct. 5 – Nov. 5. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Following the peak score, MATIC’s price did not skyrocket immediately, as the favorable conditions did not fully materialize until almost two weeks later. However, the maximum price increase registered after the record Score amounted to 35%, with an attendant 6.68% spike in trading volume and a 11.08% increase in tweets mentioning the asset.

AAVE: +11% after peak score

AAVE’s high-water mark came on Oct. 18 when it flashed a VORTECS™ Score of 90.8. At that moment, the DeFi token had been changing hands for $304.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. AAVE price, Oct. 5 – Nov. 5. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

AAVE’s ultra-high score anticipated a rally that lasted for another 11 days, culminating at the price of $338 registered on Oct. 29. The gains in trading and tweet volume were even more impressive: 488% and 118%, respectively.

LINA: +13.4% after peak score

LINA had its most bullish historical outlook registered on Oct. 11 when its VORTECS™ Score reached 90.2 against the price of $0.052.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. LINA price, Oct. 5 – Nov. 5. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

The next phase of its price action saw the price rise to $0.059 over a seven-day period, accompanied by a staggering 439% increase in trading volume and 200% rise in tweets. 

VGX: +3.7% after peak score

Voyager Token (VGX) flashed its highest VORTECS™ Score of the month (91.9) rather late into its tremendous hike from $2.11 to $3.05.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. VGX price, Oct. 5 – Nov. 5. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

The asset’s price continued to hover above $3 for the next four days, powered by a 42.89% increase in trading volume and a 10.19% more intense Twitter conversation in the aftermath of the historically bullish outlook. VGX’s momentum has somewhat faded in early November, yet the robust fundamentals could point to an impending resurgence.

We may conclude from previous analysis that looking at tokens that hit the VORTECS™ Score of 80 proved to be an efficient strategy for traders seeking to identify a range of assets with a good chance of performing well within the next few days. 

Focusing on those few that score beyond 90 may better serve Markets Pro members who prefer to operate on higher confidence levels and longer timeframes.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.


Tagged : / / / / / / / / /

AVAX tops the crypto predictability list… but the other tokens may surprise you

You can’t predict the future, but you can learn from the past.

And some crypto tokens are much (much) more predictable than others, when you analyze their historical trading patterns.

In fact, five cryptocurrencies in particular have exhibited the kind of trading predictability that could give sharp-eyed crypto traders a huge advantage in the markets.

These five tokens have all demonstrated one thing in common:

  • After strong bullish conditions were detected, they averaged an increase in value when measured after 24, 48, and 72 hours
  • After extreme bullish conditions were detected, on average they also rose after 24, 48, and 72 hours
  • The minimum average gain over 72 hours following an extreme flag was a startling 10%

While this is a measure of past trading activity and (of course) not a promise of future performance, it’s remarkable to note that these tokens, led by Avalanche (AVAX) exhibit behaviors that consistently average out to major gains, even as other tokens – including AAVE and Curve (CRV) – tend to *decrease* in value over similar timeframes, and still other tokens exhibit few correlations to historical trading conditions at all.

Background to identifying predictability

If you have been following Cointelegraph at all this past year, you have probably read about proprietary data intelligence platform Markets Pro, and the quant-style trading indicator called the VORTECS™ Score.

In purely hypothetical, automated tests the metric generates some mind-bending ROI that can reach dozens of thousands of percent when compounded over several months.

When it comes to putting historical precedent to work as a regular investor, though, knowing each crypto asset’s individual habits is more helpful than marveling at the aggregate data. Here’s one way traders could tell which assets are more likely to follow familiar paths on the way to massive returns.

get markets pro right now

Whose history rhymes most?

The idea behind the VORTECS™ Score is to provide traders with a birds-eye view on multi-dimensional patterns in crypto assets’ past performance data. The key principle underlying the Score’s utility is that oftentimes individual tokens behave in recognizably similar ways in terms of trading metrics and social sentiment… days before their prices explode (or tank). When spotted early, these regularities can inform trading decisions, even though they are by no means predictive of price action.

Average historical gains

The chart features twenty coins that have had the most instances of VORTECS™ Scores above 80 or 90, counted since the platform’s launch.

High scores indicate the algorithm’s confidence that the coin’s current outlook is historically bullish. A score of 90, while quite rare, is expressive of the algorithm’s confidence that prices have usually moved higher and with more purpose when it has seen similar trading conditions in the past.

The bars represent average gains after certain times from hitting the high score. For example, the green bar, marked as 72/90 in the legend, represents average gains that the asset has generated 72 hours after hitting the score of 90; the orange bar shows the average returns after 48 hours from hitting the VORTECS™ Score of 80.

Avalanche (AVAX) is perhaps the most obvious and consistent trade for crypto investors using historical analysis as part of their research. Not only have high scores directly correlated with price appreciation, but the gains have reinforced the algorithm’s thesis perfectly.

Score 80, Sell after 24 hours: Average gain 3%

Score 80, Sell after 48 hours: Average gain 6%

Score 80, Sell after 72 hours: Average gain 9%

Score 90, Sell after 24 hours: Average gain 12%

Score 90, Sell after 48 hours: Average gain 16%

Score 90, Sell after 72 hours: Average gain 28%

Some others are also highly consistent, with bars sitting closely together.

Axie Infinity (AXS) is a great example: 4% at 24/80, 7% at 48/80, 9% at 72/80.

Others delivered modest returns after hitting 80 but did exceptionally well after scoring 90:

For example, Tellor (TRB) with average returns of 5% at 72 hours after hitting 80 and 17% at 72 hours after scoring 90.

Some bars even point below zero, marking those tokens that tended to lose value following high VORTECS™ Scores – however, these are vastly outnumbered.

The majority of crypto assets that cross the VORTECS™ Score of 80 see consistent appreciation in the next 24 to 72 hours, and often for a longer time.

What the chart suggests is that traders can be more confident when the VORTECS™ Score lights up on AXS, MATIC, AVAX, LUNA, and TRB while exercising more caution with the likes of AAVE or CRV.

The Markets Pro team constantly tracks the performance of individual assets as well as the Score itself. Detailed breakdown of relevant data points is published every weekend in the weekly VORTECS™ report to help subscribers make the best out of their membership.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.


Tagged : / / / / / /

Expanding ecosystem and $1.86B futures open interest back Solana’s $250 target

The price of Solana’s SOL coin is meeting resistance near its all-time high again, but solid fundamentals and the impressive growth of its decentralized finance (DeFi) and nonfungible token (NFT) ecosystem are likely to drive the altcoin above $250 before year-end.

SOL/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Institutional investor interest is likely a key factor behind SOL’s impressive 490% gain since August. For example, SOL is the fourth-largest Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund component, which overall is a $1.3 billion over-the-counter tradable market instrument.

DeFi is gaining traction

Solana’s two most prominent decentralized finance projects are decentralized exchanges with built-in yield generation programs, and they hold nearly $2 billion in total locked value each.

Saber is an automated market maker protocol that trades between stable pairs and synthetic assets and provides yields for the platform’s liquidity providers. Meanwhile, Raydium offers a decentralized exchange, yield farming and liquidity pools.

Evidence of institutional investors’ appetite for Solana was the $12-million weekly inflow in mid-October, as reported by CoinShares recently. In the same week, the United States registered branch of exchange FTX announced support for the Solana blockchain, enabling users to trade, deposit and withdraw NFTs that conform to the Metaplex token standard.

SOL futures open interest reached a record-high

This positive newsflow has been reflected on SOL’s derivatives markets, as depicted by the aggregate futures open interest data below:

SOL futures aggregate open interest. Source: Bybt

The indicator reached a record-high $1.86 billion on Oct. 25, which is a 123% increase in 30 days. To put things in perspective, Cardano’s ADA and Polkadot’s DOT currently hold a $900-million futures open interest.

Traders should acknowledge that this event is not necessarily positive, as futures contracts require both a buyer (long) and a seller (short). Nevertheless, this increasing interest allows even more substantial players to participate.

Another positive factor is that DeFi protocols maintain a $13.5 billion total value locked (TVL), even though the sector took a substantial hit after the 17-hour network outage during Sept. 14 and 15.

Total value locked (TVL) on Solana in USD. Source: DefiLlama

The Solana Foundation stated that bots spammed the network as Grape launched its initial DEX offering on the Solana-based decentralized exchange Raydium. That activity overwhelmed the processing capacity with a transaction load of 400,000 per second, requiring a coordinated hard fork by validators to ignore the spam requests.

$250 seems closer than ever for SOL

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro also began to detect a bullish outlook for SOL on Oct. 20, nearly 24 hours ahead of the 15% pump that led to $210.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ score vs. SOL price (white). Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Data illustrates that the current number of tweets from unique accounts discussing Solana is 32% higher than the 30-day average. Tweet volume is one component of the VORTECS™ Score, which identified bullish conditions for SOL on Oct. 20.

As long as Solana’s ecosystem expands, the network remains a viable solution for DeFi and NFT applications looking for cheap, fast transactions. Both on-chain and derivatives indicators signal that $250 SOL by year-end is totally feasible.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.