Tag: The Weekly Update

Bitcoin Volatility Drops To 15 Month Low; What This Could Mean

by NEWSBTC

Is this the calm before the storm? Bitcoin volatility is seldom this steady. After a tumultuous downturn that had the whole market upside down, bitcoin’s fiat price is relatively flat. Everyone can breathe and rest, for a while at least. What does this mean and how long will it last, though? That’s what we’re here to explore. 

Related Reading | Dwindling Bitcoin Volatility Could Lead To Decisive Move

It’s no secret that the market was expecting a hike in the interest rates, and thus people were selling risky assets. However, the powers that be postponed the increase, and, well, the market calmed down. During this downturn, though, Bitcoin proved once again that the market considers it the least risky asset in the cryptocurrency space. Everyone bled, but Bitcoin considerably less so.

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In any case, back to volatility, Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update has the scoop: 

“Bitcoin’s 7-day volatility is now at the lowest level since November 2020. Together with the trading volume, the volatility exploded last week when bitcoin dropped below $40,000. After bottoming at $33,500, the bitcoin price has been slowly grinding upwards, and it looks like the market has released sufficient pressure for now. Still, we might see new volatility peaks soon as bitcoin trades closer to several key resistance and support levels that might be catalysts for increased volatility.”

The pressure is off, but, the steadiness might not last. If there’s one thing we can count on in regards to bitcoin is this: volatility will return sooner than later, for better or worst. 

Bitcoin volatility - The Weekend Update

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BTC/ USD Volatility | Source: Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update

What Are The Resistance And Support Levels?

Bitcoin “has been slowly grinding upwards,” and it’s getting close to that magical number 40. Again, The Weekly Update:

“$40,000 is a key resistance level. With BTC’s slow grind upwards lately, we could see BTC testing this resistance level shortly. A breakthrough would be a relief for the bulls and could signal a trend reversal.”

On the other hand, if things go south and the market starts bleeding again, there’s another number that we have to be aware of:

“Towards the downside, $32,500 acted as support during the initial sell-off, but $29,000 remains as the most critical support level. A breakout below $29,000 would be unsettling, which could cause havoc in the market.”

If Bitcoin touches 40 or 29, the boat might start to rock. Fasten your seatbelts and be sure to wear a life jacket.

BTCUSD price chart for 02/0/2022 - TradingView

BTC price chart for 02/01/2022 on Bitstamp | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

What Causes Bitcoin Volatility?

The short answer is supply and demand. However, since the Bitcoin economy is still small compared to the world’s, several factors can upset or propel the price. From any kind of news to influencers’ opinions to regulation talk or concrete action to whales dumping on the market to interest rates hike rumors. Anything. Also, take this Investopedia insight into account:

“Bitcoin has only been around for a short time—it is still in the price discovery phase. This means that prices will continue to change as investors, users, and governments work through the initial growing pains and concerns until prices stabilize—if a stable point can be reached.”

Related Reading | This Bitcoin Volatility Index Pattern Suggests A Short Squeeze May Be Near

Yes, Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by far and Fidelity thinks it “should be considered first and separate from all other digital assets that have come after it.” However, the asset is still a wild teenager. Expect volatility and learn how to deal with it. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Featured Image by Pexels on Pixabay | Charts by TradingView

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Binance Coin Dubbed “Winner Of 2021” By Crypto Research Firm

by NEWSBTC

It’s official, this was Binance Coin’s year. There are no two ways about it, BNB crushed it throughout 2021 and cemented itself as the third more popular coin in the world by market capitalization. Not a small feat, considering the phenomenal year that altcoins had. Several coins had their moment in the sun, capturing capital, headlines, and attention. No one got near Binance Coin, though.

Binance Coin performance 2021

Binance Coin's stellar performance | Source: The Weekly Update

According to Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update:

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“Bitcoin may have beaten the stock market in 2021, but it has been left in the dust by other cryptocurrencies. Binance Coin (BNB) is the best performer of the three biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap, with a 1344% gain. The Binance Smart Chain ecosystem has seen massive growth in 2021, taking some market share from Ethereum.”

That’s why they dubbed Binance Coin as “the winner of 2021,” and their point is well taken. However, there’s more to the story. Binance as a company was in hot water for a while there. And their own validators blasted the Binance Smart Chain, saying things like, “There doesn’t appear to be any reasonable testing process in place. Every update appears to make things worse.”

Let’s explore the Binance Coin ecosystem’s tumultuous year.

Big Projects Decided To Operate On The Binance Smart Chain

There’s no denying it. As The Weekly Update says, “Ethereum has lost its indisputable position as the “one and only” smart contract platform.” And Binance has a lot to do with that. A controversial project from the start, the Binance Smart Chain has been dubbed a centralized Ethereum clone. And they have a point. However, even though the Binance team did fork Ethereum’s code, they were always upfront with the direction of the project. 

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In BSC’s documentation, the team shamelessly claims that the “Binance Smart Chain uses a consensus model called Proof of Staked Authority (PoSA). (…) This consensus model can support a short block time and low fees, and it only requires 21 validators to run.” Contrast that with the 11.000 nodes that reportedly support the Ethereum ecosystem.  

Also, their plan worked and projects flocked to it:

“Binance Smart Chain was developed explicitly to solve Ethereum’s rising gas fees and offers faster, scalable, and cheaper transactions. In the past, several alternative blockchains have tried to become ‘Ethereum Killers’ but couldn’t succeed in capturing new project’s interest. However, Binance Smart Chain is hosting numerous blockchain, Defi, and crypto projects.”

Problems And Connection To The Binance Coin

However, as in Ethereum’s case, success came with scalability problems. A set of validators took to GitHub to raise concerns about the state of the network and how running a complete node’s cost has increased tremendously.  “There is no code review, patches are simply committed, in most cases even without a proper description of what they do or what problem they try to solve,” the original poster said. 

“I’ve rarely seen something handled so unprofessionally,” the OP accused. “I have many full nodes running there and now all of them are unable to sync. Each of these servers costs me $800 per month (previously only $200), then you told me that I need faster bandwidth and disk which means the cost will keep rising,” a commenter claimed. 

What does this have to do with the Binance Coin? Everything. As the native currency of the Binance ecosystem, BNB’s success is tied to the success of the whole network. Binance is still doing amazing, but, can Binance Coin holders count on that to be the case in 2022?

BNBUSD price chart for 12/29/2021 - TradingView

BNB price chart for 12/29/2021 on Binance US | Source: BNB/USD on TradingView.com

Make No Mistake, Binance Coin Won 2021

It was an action-packed year, but Binance Coin rose to the test. Besides the validators uprising, the Binance team took care of these flash loan hacks and kept BNB’s price rising throughout the year. When CZ himself called for other entrepreneurs to create their own coins, NewsBTC was the voice of reason:

“Binance is not only the biggest exchange in the world; it also has the most activities, features, things to do. BNB powers all of that. How many coins support that huge of an ecosystem? How many coins have that many use cases? And yes, BNB provides its user with superpowers while in the Binance ecosystem and helps them save money. How many other coins can do something similar?”

Let’s not kid ourselves, the Binance Coin AKA BNB is a unicorn. A one-of-a-kind project that did many things right and rewarded the early believers with a phenomenal year. A 1344% increase in price is not something we see every day. Congratulations to Binance Coin for owning 2021.

Featured Image: Foundry on Pixabay | Charts by TradingView & The Weekly Update

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China Ban Aftermath: Why The Crypto Downtrend Could End On New Year’s Eve

by NEWSBTC

Is the China ban to blame for the recent Bitcoin sell-offs that brought down the whole crypto market? That is the prevalent theory. As the main exchanges close their operations in mainland China, the citizens have been fearfully selling their assets. They don’t know if they’re going to be able to transact or even sell their cryptocurrencies in the future, so they’re going back to the Yuan. And we have charts from Arcane Research and a carrot to prove that. 

Related Reading | Is This The Reason China Banned Bitcoin Mining? Carvalho’s Mind Blowing Theory

Let’s stop wasting time and go to the hard data.

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How’s The China Ban Treating Huobi?

The headline, provided by this carrot, is the following. “Asia’s largest exchange, Huobi, has stopped related trading in China. Bitcoin has been flowing from Asia to the US and Europe for some time.” To elaborate on that, we bring out good friends at Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update. “The final impact of the Chinese bitcoin ban from September is unfolding. After gradually removing Chinese mainland users, Huobi’s share of the global open interest has fallen to 2%, down from its Feb 15th, 2020 peak of 20%.”

And they have the charts to prove it:

Open Interest Huobi and OKEx - Arcane Research

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BTC Futures Open Interest, OKEx and Huobi | Source: The Weekly Update

And even more data and crucial dates:

“Huobi has accelerated its retirement of Chinese mainland customers. On Sept 24th, Huobi ceased registrations for new mainland Chinese customers. On Dec 15th, Huobi ceased spot trading for Chinese citizens. Additionally, from Dec 15th to Dec 31st, Chinese mainland customers are only able to sell digital assets.”

So, the crypto downtrend could end on New Year’s Eve because it’s the last day that Huobi’s “Chinese mainland customers” will be able to sell. This might sound like an exaggeration, but look at this bloody red chart:

“The sell-pressure from China is real,” and it isn’t only coming from Huobi.

How’s The China Ban Treating OKEx?

The other Chinese giant’s situation is more complex. What’s going on in there? How are they handling the China ban? Rumors are flying. According to the carrot, “The ok exchange has not yet issued an announcement on the clearing.” The Weekly Update has a little more information, but it’s still convoluted. 

“The public statements from OKEx are far more ambiguous than those of Huobi. The exchange has publicly stated that the exchange website will be inaccessible for mainland Chinese traders. Further, the exchange has stated that it will not set up offices and teams in mainland China while maintaining the policy of “exiting the Chinese mainland market.” In OKEx’s subreddit, the OKEx helpdesk shared a screenshot from its P2P market, currently allowing traders to trade using the Chinese Yuan.”

Related Reading | China Banned Bitcoin Mining. What Happens To Small Hydropower Stations Now?

As the first graph shows, OKEx open interest share is also in sharp decline. “In April 2020, OKEx accounted for 30% of the open interest in the futures market, in stark contrast to today’s 8% market share.” The signal is clear, even if the situation is not.

BTCUSD price chart for 12/22/2021 - TradingView

BTC price chart for 12/22/2021 on Coinbase | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

What About Binance?

Sadly, we don’t have as much data about them. The carrot claims that “Binance will be partially cleared at the end of the year.” It also informs us that “Binance’s net position change recently red (likely because of China),” and gives us two very informative charts. In them, the sell-pressure that the China ban generated is obvious. While Binance is red, the US and Europe-centric Kraken is very much in the green.

So, is the crypto downtrend going to end on New Year’s Eve? The data speaks for itself. Let’s cross our fingers, nevertheless.

Featured Image: Myriams on Pixabay | Charts by TradingView

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Crypto Market Bloodbath Creates Largest Stretch Of Fear Since April Peak

by NEWSBTC

As the downtrend in the crypto market continues, so does extreme fear. What’s inspiring the sell-off? Is it Omicron? Or is it Evergrande? Is it a conspiracy? Or is it the holidays? All those questions and more have had the Fear and Greed Index pointing left for a month straight. What does this mean? Where do we go from here? That’s what we’re here to explore. 

Related Reading | Blood In The Streets: Crypto Market Becomes Fearful As Bitcoin Dives

But first, let’s talk about the Fear and Greed Index. One of the many Bitcoin indicators, it measures the market’s general sentiment at the moment. Zero is extreme Fear. A hundred is extreme Greed. And the indicator oscillates between those two at any given time. It’s been said that the crypto market is very emotional. The Fear and Greed Index is there to keep investors from making irrational decisions based on sentiment alone. 

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Fear And Greed Index, Extreme Fear

Fear And Greed Index shows Extreme Fear | Source: Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update

What’s The Fear And Greed Index Saying Now?

According to Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update, fear has settled in:

“The Fear and Greed Index has now signaled “Fear” or “Extreme Fear” for almost one month straight. The last time we saw such a prolonged fearful market sentiment was at the beginning of the summer when the market sentiment was fearful for more than two months straight. With the sustained consolidation of bitcoin, the late autumn euphoria has dampened, and the overall sentiment seems very negative at the moment.”

The report also says that, “during steady sell-offs, bitcoin tends to outperform the overall crypto market.” And this time was no exception, BTC “outperformed all indexes so far in December, seeing a negative return of -18% after a relatively flat second week of trading this month.” On the other hand, “the Small Cap index has seen a loss of nearly a third of its value in December.“ What does this mean in general?

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“The bitcoin dominance has risen by 1.13% in the last week. This is the third time we’re seeing bitcoin dominance bottom at 40% in 2021. The last two times were May 19th and Sep 13th. It seems that the 40% threshold is a difficult area for alts to sustain”

BTCUSD price chart for 12/15/2021 - TradingView

BTC price chart for 12/15/2021 on Eightcap | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

What Can We Expect In The Future?

To get our dose of technical and on-chain analysis, let’s give the mic to this month’s Fear & Greed Index Newsletter:

“A major factor here is the cycle support band. We cannot ignore the fact that Bitcoin had just closed 2 consecutive weeks below the market support band. Historically, this meant that we’d see a longer consolidation phase before we could have a true reversal in the trend. The takeaway here is this, as long as Bitcoin closes the week below the cycle support band, we shouldn’t expect any major breakout in price to take place.”

Every dog has its day, though. A week ago, analyzing a very similar market sentiment, NewsBTC informed you:

“A “Fear and Greed” Index on Extreme Fear levels, according to certain analysts, has historically preceded crypto market local bottoms. However, a run into new highs could see an obstacle as the macro-economic outlook turn complex.”

Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Bloodbath: Is El Salvador A “Sell The News” Event?

It’s also important to remember that only two months ago, we were in a similar situation and the sentiment did a complete 180 in a matter of weeks. 

“The indicator dipped all the way down to extreme fear on 30th September, but in under two weeks the sentiment has already rebounded back to extreme greed. The report notes that this shows how fast the sentiment can change among the crypto market.”

With that being said, and a disclaimer that this isn’t financial advice, in a situation like this there’s only one thing we could say… hodl the line! 

Featured Image: PublicDomainPictures on Pixabay| Charts by TradingView

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Fear And Greed: Sentiment Turns Neutral As Bitcoin Stagnates, What To Do?

by NEWSBTC

It’s the calm before the storm. What to do when the Fear and Greed index turns grey? Warren Buffett already told us to be greedy when others are fearful. We already know that we should be fearful when others are greedy. What should we do when the market it’s at a rare state of balance and expectations are high? We should probably take a page for those Bitcoin maximalists and… wait for it… HODL!

One of the main criticisms that the Fear and Greed Index gets is that it encourages traders and investors to try to time the market instead of holding strong. Bad things happen to those who try to time the market. Yet, we try to do it. The temptation is too strong. Bad things happen to those who trade emotionally. Yet, some fall for that trap over and over again. In fact, it could be argued that the Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies markets are even more emotional than the traditional ones. And that’s saying a lot. 

In any case, before making any rash decisions, we should remember what we’re talking about here.

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Fear & Greed Index, Arcane Research chart

Fear & Greed Index, Arcane Research chart


The Fear & Greed Index goes into neutral territory | Source: Arcane Research

What Exactly Is The Fear And Greed Index?

We at NewsBTC deal with this constantly. Even though the Fear and Greed Index is a criticized and questionable indicator, there’s an undeniable connection to the market that’s obvious even to the casual observer. When we found a bizarre correlation between the Fear & Greed Index and UTXO data, we prefaced it with:

“As a speculative asset, nothing else quite behaves like Bitcoin. Shifts in sentiment take price action to the extreme. As a result, tools have been developed to monitor the fear or greed in the market.”

The website Alternative.me calculates the main Fear And Greed Index for cryptocurrency markets, they explain its reason to be as:

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The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions:


  • Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.


  • When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.

We, very simply, explained why when we described how the Fear And Greed Index can be used as a trigger indicator:

“Financial market sentiment can almost always be used as a contrarian indicator. But in a speculation driven industry where hype and buzz matter more than fundamentals, this is even more true.”

BTCUSD price chart for 08/04/2021 - TradingView

BTCUSD price chart for 08/04/2021 - TradingView


BTC price chart on Bitstamp | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

What Does It Mean When The Sentiment Turns Neutral

After what seemed like years of coldness and extreme fear, the market sentiment started improving as early as a week ago. And, even though it doesn’t feel that way, this advance into neutral territory is a huge improvement. As Arcane Research said in their “The Weekly Update” report:

“The Fear & Greed Index has climbed rapidly since late July and touched neutral levels for the first time since May. Despite the slight decline in the last couple of days, the market is certainly getting more bullish. This bullishness is also evident in the futures market.”

So, what should you do now that the sentiment turned neutral? Not much. Keep your finger on the trigger, though. Things are about to get interesting.

Featured Image by Kristopher Roller on Unsplash - Charts by TradingView

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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 27,148.27 0.50%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,682.35 0.26%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 66.82 0.65%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 235.65 0.02%