Bitcoin correction weakest of 2021 so far, as hopes of Santa Claus rally rise

In previous bull market cycles, there has been a measurable correction before a rally at the end of the year — and if history rhymes it could be on the cards again.

We’ve certainly experienced the correction: Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $69K on Nov. 10 and has retreated around 17% to current levels.

Some mainstream media outlets such as Forbes have taken the view the current pullback has plunged markets back into bearish territory with the rather salacious headline: “Did Bitcoin Enter A Bear Market After Falling 20% From Its ATH?” on a Nov. 30 article.

But November’s dip was actually the weakest correction of 2021, overshadowed by Bitcoin’s whopping 53.4% correction over three months between April and July. The most recent correction in September was the second deepest, reaching 37% from April’s ATH.

In its Nov. 29 “Week Onchain” report, analytics provider Glassnode argued that the current correction is just “business as usual for Bitcoin hodlers” hinting that it may soon be over. It also confirmed that this current market correction is “actually the least severe in 2021.”

Barring a stock market plunge due to the Omicron variant situation becoming worse, some believe we may be on track for a Santa Claus rally. It’s a term from the stock market when prices rise during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in January, however, it has also been noted in  crypto markets in previous years and is often shorthand for price rises throughout December.

Last December, saw a 47% surge in BTC prices throughout the month and December in 2017 witnessed an 80% pump to a new all-time high at the time. Both were in bull markets like today.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at just over $57K so a Santa Claus rally similar to last year could see prices surge to top $80K before the year is out.

8848 Invest co-founder Nikita Rudenia is also confident about a Santa Claus rally commenting:

“Despite the obvious setbacks thus far, Bitcoin is still on track to close the year at $70,000 per coin and, should this feat be achieved, we may see the coin touch $75,000 in early 2022 before we get a major correction.”

Interestingly Ether is currently outperforming. The ETH/BTC ratio is the highest it has been since mid-May at 0.082 BTC per ETH or around 12 ETH per BTC according to CoinGecko. This could see ETH lead further price gains in December.

Related: Forget the milk and cookies, Santa is accepting Bitcoin this holiday season

After taking a deep dive into the on-chain patterns, Glassnode concluded that Bitcoin investors are in more profitable positions than during September’s correction.

“Both Long and Short-term Holders are holding more profitable supply than September’s correction, which can generally be viewed as constructive for price.”

Glassnode reported that the total proportion of profitable supply held by short-term holders has increased by 60% since September. It summarized “in bull market conditions, this combination usually sets out a fairly constructive short-term outlook.”

Hopes of a Santa Clause rally, therefore, are starting to grow. Such a spurt at the end of the year can be attributed to a number of factors such as holiday cheer and increased liquidity due to Christmas bonuses.

However, the new Omicron variant could put a dampener on the party if there is a major impact on global financial markets and more lockdowns are enforced or seem likely. According to Nasdaq, investors may be on the sidelines for the time being until more is known about the new viral strain.

On the upside, Bitcoin was trading at just $18,857 this time last year.


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Macro Guru Raoul Pal Names Four ‘Most Undervalued’ Altcoin Projects, Says Ethereum Position Now Larger Than Bitcoin

Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal is highlighting four altcoin projects that he believes have major upside in the long run.

Pal tells his 711,000 Twitter followers that altcoins targeting unique social and virtual use cases are currently the most undervalued on the market.



He points to the non-fungible token (NFT) platform Rally (RLY), tokenized sports exchange Chiliz (CHZ), and gaming metaverses The Sandbox (SAND) and Decentraland (MANA) as four of the most early and promising protocols in all of crypto.

He’s also a big believer in the NFT-focused company Dapper Labs.

“I obviously also own BTC and a whole bunch of other crypto (layers 1’s, DeFi and interoperability stuff). I think the most undervalued plays for the future (not now) are Rally, Chiliz, Dapper Labs, The Sandbox, Decentraland and other metaverse and social tokens…

I’m not shilling them as they are big-picture future plays. I am not looking for quick gains in those strategic, undervalued bets so don’t follow me in expecting a pump.”

According to Pal, Facebook’s recent rebranding to Meta is a fresh sign that a virtual transformation is underway that will introduce the masses to blockchain technology.

“Make no mistake – Meta/Facebook with Diem and the metaverse experience is a way to onboard billions of people into this world of distributed ledger technology…

This is what adoption looks like – it maybe not what you want, but it is what it is. Again, we have the choice to participate or not. This is very different to the physical world. Your opinion of Meta is just a matter of where you hang out.”

Pal also says now he holds “irresponsibly” long positions in Ethereum (ETH), which recently hit a new all-time high, that dwarf all of his other personal investments.

“Just so we are clear – I am more than irresponsibly long ETH right now. I now have leverage but via calls. This is by far and away the biggest personal position of my entire life by a factor of 10 (or more).

My view horizon for this part of the trade is 6 to 9 months.”

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Patreon May Let Creators Offer Fans ‘Exclusive Memberships’ Through Social Tokens

In brief

  • Patreon is considering letting creators use crypto tokens to monetize their fanbases.
  • Creator-centric social tokens are already available via platforms like Rally and Roll.

Patreon lets creators earn income directly from supporters via subscriptions, potentially yielding stronger bonds with fans while enabling new types of business models. Now, the service says that it is considering adding the option for creators to offer their own personal crypto tokens—or social tokens—to help monetize their communities.

At The Information’s 2021 Creator Economy Summit yesterday (via TechCrunch), Patreon CEO and co-founder Jack Conte and Chief Product Officer Julian Gutman discussed innovation across the blockchain and crypto space and climbing prices for NFT collectibles.

“It’s unclear if that is sustainable across the entire creator economy,” said Gutman on rising NFT prices. “But there’s some fundamental technological components to NFTs as a way to sell value to your audience, and sort of continue to gain value from that from secondary sales as what you do becomes more and more important to the world.”

Instead of focusing on NFTs, Patreon thinks creator tokens could be a good fit for its members. The site first floated the idea in September, suggesting that it had “begun to explore” the idea of letting its 200,000+ creators offer them to its millions of total paying patrons.

Last month, during a Patreon Connect livestream, Head of Policy Laurent Crenshaw spoke to demand from creators who wished to offer up social tokens to supporters, which is not allowed under the platform’s current rules.

“We’ve heard from a number of creators who have been interested in the opportunity to offer exclusive memberships and benefits to their patrons through a coin or token… a digital item that they can hold onto that shows that they are part of your fan club,” Crenshaw said. “We thought that at the very least, we could explore the opportunity of making that type of offering allowable under our guidelines.”

The Patreon Connect stream suggested that its users could potentially create tokens “on a separate platform,” so the company may not be looking to build its own internal minting platform for creator coins. Conte replied “no comment” when moderator Laura Mandara from The Information asked if Patreon had full-time employees working on crypto, but he admitted that the firm is “thinking about it.”

Creator tokens or social tokens let entertainers and personalities leverage their communities with a crypto token, which generates income and can be used to allow exclusive access to perks, experiences, and other features. It can also potentially benefit holders if the creator’s own star rises and the value of the token climbs in tandem.

It’s a concept that is already in practice via platforms like Rally and Roll, which let creators, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and other groups launch and manage their own tokens, and use them to cultivate a community.

NBA player Spencer Dinwiddle is also entering the space with an upcoming service called Calaxy, which will let celebrities, athletes, and social media personalities launch social tokens and interact directly via a mobile app. Similarly, the platform Socios lets sports teams, esports organizations, and brands launch their own fan tokens.

Creator tokens in particular tend to have relatively compact communities of supporters. Rally’s biggest coin, called TILT (for The Tilt), has a current market cap below $500,000 and fewer than 1,000 total holders, per the site. College football star Kayvon Thibodeaux recently launched a creator coin on Rally, and likewise has less than 1,000 total token holders at present.


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Colin McRae’s long-lost rally car reportedly sold for Bitcoin at auction

Bitcoin (BTC) adoption grows in the auction world, where privacy is a key concern. An anonymous buyer purchased a legendary rally car, driven by iconic rally figures Colin McRae and Carlos Sainz, that was thought to be long lost in an auction for half a million Australian dollars (US$360,000), and reportedly used Bitcoin as a payment method.

Australian auction house Lloyds Auctions announced that the 1994 Subaru Prodrive 555 Group A World Rally Championship Car had been found in a barn, covered in dust, in the Victoria state of Australia.

The car originally thought to be valued at 15,000 to 20,000 Australian dollars ($10,900 to $14,500). But a 6-month investigation from the International Classic Automobile Authentication and Rating System (ICAARS) revealed that “it may well be worth more than $1 million [US$725,000].”

Lloyds said that the rally car, one of only 63 commissioned by Prodrive, was sitting in the barn for 10 years, and the owner was unaware of the vehicle’s actual value. It only had three owners since its racing days and was in untouched condition.

Touted as a “golden treasure” by an ICAARS inspector, the car went under the hammer on Sept. 26 and was auctioned for half a million Australian dollars. The winner was said to have paid the bid in Bitcoin.

Related: NFTs could mark a resurgence in art galleries

Lloyds announced in June that the Aussie auction house would start accepting crypto payments, enabling bidders to buy items auctioned on the platform with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

“As a longtime patron of Lloyds I had no hesitation and couldn’t believe how simple it was for me to pay with cryptocurrency,” a bidder then said, adding that the seller receives the payment in cash and “never know the difference.”

Beyond cryptocurrencies, nonfungible tokens (NFTs) are also taking over the auction world by storm. Art galleries are adopting the new form of digital art as auctionable items. Sotheby auctioned Yuga Labs’ 101 Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT collection in September with a winning bid of $24.39 million.