Is Bitcoin Edging Closer to the End of a Bear Market?

The back and forth experienced in the Bitcoin (BTC) market might soon come to an end based on various indicators, according to a crypto analyst under the pseudonym PlanB.


PlanB, who is the creator of the Stock-2-Flow (S2F) model, acknowledged:

“Realized Price / Moving Average (RPMA, purple) shows the Bitcoin cycle best. Relative Strength Index (RSI, yellow) is similar but can be misleading at critical times (e.g., 2nd half 2021). The good news: the bear market is almost over. Waiting for RPMA and RSI to start rising again.”


Source: PlanB


Similar sentiments were shared by market analyst Matthew Hyland, who acknowledged that the monthly RSI was approaching historical lows.



Source: TradingView


The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum-based indicator that analyzes overbought and oversold conditions. Therefore, this indicator is almost hitting historical lows in the Bitcoin market, indicating an extremely oversold situation, which is often followed by a price rise.


Another bullish signal has popped up because BTC funding rates are negative. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez explained:

“Bitcoin funding rates remain negative, indicating that short positions are dominant. This is a positive sign for a potential rebound in BTC price.”


Source: CryptoQuant


PlanB had previously noted that it became crystal clear that Bitcoin’s bull run was over in the first quarter of this year because a full-blown bear market had emerged.


Bitcoin needs to hold the $29K level


For BTC to increase its rebound chances, the leading cryptocurrency ought to hold the $29,000 area.


Martinez pointed out:

“The most significant support level for Bitcoin sits between $29,330 and $30,200, where more than 1.23 million addresses hold nearly 850,000 BTC. BTC needs to hold above this demand wall for a chance of rebounding. Failing to do so can lead to the continuation of the downtrend.”

Bitcoin was hovering around the $29,425 area during the early hours on Sunday, according to CoinMarketCap

Image source: Shutterstock


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PlanB Says Bitcoin Has Bottomed Out for New Bull Run

A crypto analyst and creator of the Stock-2-Flow (S2F) model has a bullish forecast for the world’s largest digital currency.


According to PlanB, it became glaring in the first quarter of this year that the Bitcoin bull run was over and we have now entered a full-blown bear market.

PlanB’s words come on the heels of the premier coin trading at 16 month low of $26,350.49 this past week as the broader digital currency ecosystem crumbled with the collapse of the Terra protocol. While selloffs have been consistent in the crypto market lately, PlanB is of the opinion that the price trend has bottomed out, and a stage has been set for the next bull run in the market.

“December 2021 I was still hoping for a 2nd leg of the bull market. But in Q1 2022 it became clear that this bitcoin bull market was over. We entered a bear market since Apr 2021 peak (yes ATH was Nov 2021). Now we are creating a bottom. Then a new bull market will start,” he tweeted, noting that this is a typical BTC cycle.

PlanB has made a name for himself in the financial world as his S2F model can be applied to a variety of assets. However, his predictions about BTC have not always been right given the highly volatile nature of the digital asset in the past year.

One of the top projections that PlanB has given with respect to the price of Bitcoin is that it is bound to hit the $100,000 mark by 2023. While we are just in the second quarter of 2022, conservative analysts believe that projection is a very ambitious one. Considering the fact that BTC once printed an ATH above $68,000, PlanB knows better than anyone not to discount the potential upshot of the digital asset.

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S2F Creator PlanB Projects Bitcoin to Touch $100k in 2023

PlanB, the anonymous creator of the popular price prediction tool, Stock-2-Flow (S2F) model is highly optimistic that his model that projects Bitcoin’s price at $100,000 will come true latest by 2023. - 2022-02-16T123612.403.jpg

Taking to Twitter, PlanB said that “Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100K in 2023,” a declaration that has stirred a number of positive and negative reactions alike.

PlanB is a famous analyst in the digital currency and stock market ecosystem, as most of his projections have a high level of accuracy until last year. The analyst who has had a stint of successes in the past years proclaimed, based on the same S2F model that Bitcoin’s price will top $100,000 in 2021. However, the coin ended the year way below the average of the projected price.

The S2F model takes a reference to the asset’s stock or total supply and its demand or rate of emission or depletion which makes up the ‘Flow’ end. Based on this, PlanB predicted a worse case price target of $98,000 for BTC last year as well as a best-case scenario of $135,000 respectively, and neither of these projections was actualized.

Bitcoin was trading at $44,050.66, up 5.06% at the time of writing, according to data from CoinMarketCap. From the projection of $100,000 by 2023, PlanB is implying that the price of Bitcoin will grow by more than 120% from the point it is trading at the moment. While PlanB may trust his models, the industry is arguably losing trust in its veracity, and this also applies to a few other analysts that have at one point or the other given a very bullish prediction of the premier digital currency.

The flexibility in time is poised to favour BTC price growth this time around and coupled with the fact that more institutional investors are swarming into the ecosystem, more scarcity that can drive BTC’s price up is bound to be experienced in the mid to long term.

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Brock Pierce and Tom Lee tip $200K BTC in 2022, despite missing the mark in 2021

Despite missing the mark with their $100,000 Bitcoin price predictions in 2021, Former Chief Strategy Officer at Block One Brock Pierce and co-founder of research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee are both tipping Bitcoin could hit $200,000 in 2022.

Essentially they are doubling down on their ambitious projections for 2022, even though Bitcoin’s high water mark of $69,000 was set on Nov. 10 and BTC is currently trading at $46,270.

Tom Lee predicted $200,000 for BTC in the Dec. 23 Market Rebellion Roundtable discussion. He said in the discussion:

“So maybe Bitcoin is, you know, in that $200,000 range. I mean, I think that’s achievable and I know it sounds fantastical, but it’s very useful.”

Lee previously maintained his 2021BTC price prediction of $100,000 as late as October in light of ProShares launching the first Bitcoin ETF in the USA.

At that time, he also predicted that Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETF) would attract at least $50 billion over the next 12 months. American Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about $1.5 billion in assets between Valkyrie, Van Eck, and ProShares’ offerings.

Pierce meanwhile told Fox Business on Dec. 29 that it was “conceivable that it could break $200,000 for a moment and come falling back again.”

In a Jan. 22 article at the start of the year Pierce had cited $100,000 at the top of the range for 2021:

“There really are not many levels where I (anticipate) Bitcoin seeing resistance. We could get anywhere from $70,000 to $100,000 by the end of the year, but it will not be without volatility.”

In fairness to Pierce,  the lower end of the range was indeed hit on November 10.

Popular anonymous Bitcoin price analyst Plan B has made his name with his price predictions and stock to flow model. On June 20, PlanB correctly predicted that BTC would hit $63,000 in October, but missed his $98,000 and $135,000 marks for November and December respectively as his “worst case scenario.”

PlanB has defended his predictions by claiming the accuracy of his statistical models to within one standard deviation. Although his price predictions were off, he said in a Dec. 25 tweet,

“$50K-$200K 1 standard deviation band feels wide. Some people think this makes S2F model invalid and not useful, but is it??”

Related: Bitcoin dips below $47K but one trader is eyeing ‘solid risk/reward’ for longing BTC now

Founder and CEO of Ballet Crypto Bobby Lee predicted that BTC would hit $300,000 this year back on Mar. 22 on CNBC’s Squawk Box. This was one of the most ambitious predictions to miss the mark this year.

Each public figure’s wrong predictions go to highlight the need to Do Your Own Research (DYOR) in cryptocurrency investing and to take price predictions as a bit of fun, rather than a serious guide to the future.