Are We In A Bear Market? Glassnode Analyses The Latest Bitcoin Crash

Let’s cut to the chase: Glassnode thinks we’re in a bear market. In their latest “The Week On-Chain” newsletter, the company tries to “establish the likelihood that a prolonged bear market is in play” by “using historical investor behaviour, and profitability patterns as our guide.” One thing’s for sure, the recent crash was severe, and “such a heavy drawdown is likely to change investor perceptions and sentiment at a macro scale.”

Related Reading | Bitcoin Leads As Markets Sees Record Outflows. Bear Market Incoming?

How severe was it? According to Glassnode, “this is now the second worst sell-off since the 2018-20 bear market, eclipsed only by July 2021, where the market fell -54% from the highs set in April.” Apart from the price, investors “capitulated over $2.5 Billion in net realised value on-chain this week.” Who were those paper hand investors? “The lion’s share of these losses are attributed to Short-Term Holders.” Of course.

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Glassnode Points Out The Bear Market Indicators

  • The first indicator Glassnode goes for is “The Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric.” Which measures “the overall market profitability as a proportion of market cap.” How is Bitcoin doing on that front? “NUPL is currently trading at 0.325 which indicates that an equivalent to 32.5% of the Bitcoin market cap is held as an unrealised profit.”

Price drawdown from ATH - Glassnode

BTC Price Drawdown from ATH | Source: Glassnode

How does this point to a bear market? “Considering previous cycles, such low profitability is typical in the early to mid phase of a bear market (orange). One could also reasonably argue that a bear market started in May 2021 based on this observation.” This is not enough, though. But Glassnode has more.

  • The second indicator the company hit us with is “The MVRV Ratio.” This one “is calculated as the market cap, divided by the realised cap; and is a useful tool for identifying periods of high, and poor investor profitability.”

How does this point to a bear market? “With a current MVRV-Z reading of 0.85,  the market is well within territory visited in bearish markets, and a bearish divergence is noted, similar to the NUPL metric above.” Is this enough? No way. But Glassnode has an ace up its sleeve.

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  • The third indicator is “the Realised-to-Liveliness Ratio (RTLR).” They use “the Realised Price using Liveliness in the denominator” to calculate this one. 

How does this point to a bear market? “The market is now trading below the RTLR price of $39.2k, but above the Realised price of $24.2k. Again, this is often observed during early to mid stage bear markets.”

Who Sold And Who Is Still Holding Strong?

There’s no surprise here. The “Short-Term Holders (STH)” are selling. How does Glassnode define STHs, though? By the age of their coins. “Coins are considered to be owned by STHs when they are younger than ~155-days, and are statistically more likely to be spent in the face of volatility.” No surprise there either.

It’s worth pointing out that the STH’s coins are “currently held at a loss.” In fact, “as of this week, almost the entire STH supply is underwater.” That could be scary for newcomers, so those coins are at risk of being sold. At a loss. These people are going to regret their emotional decisions for life, but that’s a topic for another article.

BTCUSD price chart for 01/24/2022 - TradingView

BTC price chart for 01/24/2022 on Oanda | Source: BTC/USD on

The other question here is, who’s holding strong? According to Glassnode, “Interestingly, STH supply remains near multi-year lows, which is indicative of their counter-part, the Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who appear impressively unfazed by such a severe drawdown.” Of course. People who already understood the game are not easy to shake.

How are the LTH’s coins doing? “Over 59.3% of the circulating supply has now been dormant for over 1yr, increasing by 5.8% of circulating supply in the last three months.” This sounds bullish, but Glassnode finds a way to rain on the LTH’s parade. “Whilst a rising, and large proportion of mature coins is generally considered constructive, it once again bears similarities to a bear market, a time when only the HODLers and patient accumulators remain.”

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bottom Signal From Bear Market, Black Thursday Could Save The Bull Run

Conclusions And Hopium

According to Glassnode, one could argue that the “bear market started in May 2021.” Does it feel like a bear market, though? No, it doesn’t. It doesn’t feel like a bull market, either. We may be in a new phase. The Bitcoin cycle might be dead. Or maybe we’re just in a bear market as Glassnode tried to prove. Either way, LTHs are not selling.

Featured Image by mana5280 on Unsplash  | Charts by Glassnode and TradingView


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Bitcoin Addresses Holding for More Than a Year Hit an ATH with 10.15 Million BTC

Even though Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the psychological price of $60,000 for the first time in more than two weeks, long-term holders remain unfazed as their accumulation continues to break the record.

Daniel Ferraro, a researcher at IntoTheBlock, explained:

“Despite BTC touching the mid’s $58K, the long-term investment vision amongst Bitcoin holders remains unfazed. The number of addresses holding BTC >1yr is currently at an ATH, increasing consistently over the past 12 months and accumulating at the dips. They hold 10.15 million BTC.”


Long-term Bitcoin holders have emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries with a lower cost basis of $17,750. The cost basis entails the purchase price or original value of an asset. 

Therefore, long-term holders have surfaced as significant players in the crypto space. 

Meanwhile, BTC funding and open interest (OI) have experienced a substantial drop, which shows less speculation in the market.

Data analytic firm IntoTheBlock noted:

“The Perpetual Swaps Funding Rates are considerably lower than the ones experienced during the first 4 months of 2021. This is a sign of less speculation and deleveraged markets, leading to a stronger range consolidation for BTC.”

Bitcoin miners revenue hit $1.818 billion in October

According to on-chain analyst Dylan LeClair:

“Bitcoin miners mined $1.818 billion worth of BTC over the last month. The revenue total over the last month is larger than any 30-day period in the history of the network.”

This shows that BTC miners have gotten back on their feet after being given a heavy blow following China’s intensified crypto mining crackdown in May.

During the same time, Bitcoin’s price went below the 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since March last year after plummeting to lows of $30K. The 200-day MA shows an average of roughly 40 weeks of trading and helps in determining the general market trend. 

As Bitcoin mining remains unwelcome on Chinese soil, Bitcoin miners have found the right footing in other countries like the United States, Kazakhstan, and Iraq. 

Image source: Shutterstock


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Bitcoin on Exchanges Slip as Long-Term Holders Stay Put

Bitcoin (BTC) balance on crypto exchanges continues to dip, as acknowledged by IntoTheBlock.

The data analytic firm explained:

“Bitcoin balance on exchanges continues to decrease. IntoTheBlock netflows indicator reveals that just over the last 30 days, more than 59,000 BTC left centralized exchanges, with 2 big outliers on Oct 25 and 29th.”


Once Bitcoin exits exchanges, it cannot be easily liquidated and resulting in reducing the selling pressure. Therefore, this is bullish because BTC is transferred to digital wallets and cold storage for future purposes other than speculation. 

This is one of the attributes that made Bitcoin hit historic highs above $68,000 based on depleted supply. 

Long-term holders stand firm

According to on-chain analyst Jan Wuestenfeld:

“Long-Term Holders are barely taking profit: LTH SOPR continues to be Low. On that recent climb of Bitcoin’s price to new ATHs, the long term SOPR barely moved.”

This shows that long-term holders are not selling their Bitcoin investment, which is positive in the short term because they are creating a supply deficit in the market. 

With price being strongly correlated with open interest, the latter hit a record high across all exchanges as more participants eye the BTC network.


The $61K range is now a significant support zone

According to crypto insight provider Dilution-proof, the $61K range has emerged as a stable price foundation because 8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply moved around this region.



Therefore, Dilution-proof believes that this area will play out as significant support if BTC revisits. 

Meanwhile, the BTC Taproot upgrade is set to go live on November 14 and seeks to make the network more efficient and private. It also intends to introduce smart contracts on the Bitcoin blockchain. This will be a significant stepping stone in harnessing the booming decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) industries. 

Image source: Shutterstock


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Long Term Bitcoin Holders Emerge as the Biggest Beneficiaries with a Cost Basis of $17,750

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained some momentum after correcting the historic high of $66,900 set on October 20. The benchmark cryptocurrency was up 2.9% in the last 24 hours to hit $63,355 during intraday trading, according to CoinMarketCap (94).jpg

Long-term holders are beneficial from enjoying the lower cost basis that stands at $17,750. On-chain analyst Dylan LeClair explained:

“Bitcoin On-Chain Holder Cost Basis update: – Short-Term Holders: $48,450 – Long-Term Holders: $17,750.”

Cost basis is the purchase price or original value of an asset. It is used to calculate capital gains or losses. 


Short term holders have also been profiting with a cost basis of $48,450.


Reportedly, the retracement from the ATH price being witnessed in the Bitcoin market was prompted by profit-taking tendencies by long term holders. 


Will history repeat itself this November?

According to market analyst Lark Davis:

On average, Bitcoin has returned around 48% in the November of the year after the BTC halving (2013 and 2017). Will we see a repeat this year?”

Bitcoin halving refers to the reduction of Bitcoin block rewards, which occurs once every 210,000 blocks are created, and it usually happens around every four years. Block reward refers to the amount of Bitcoin received by miners after they successfully validate a new block. 


Bitcoin’s third halving took place on May 11, 2020, effectively reducing the block rewards from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per new block. This was the third time in Bitcoin’s history that this event was happening as the previous ones occurred in 2012 and 2016. 


Whether an average return of around 48%, which will prompt a new all-time high, will be seen this November remains to be seen. 

Image source: Shutterstock


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Long-Term Bitcoin Holder Supply Shock Hits a Record-High, Suggesting Price Could Surge in Months

Bitcoin (BTC) was a stone’s throw away from the psychological price of $50K during intraday trading. The leading cryptocurrency was up by 3.4% in the last 24 hours to hit $49,404, according to CoinMarketCap.

On-chain analyst Will Clemente believes this is the tip of the iceberg because Bitcoin might witness a significant price appreciation in the coming months based on the long-term holder supply shock. He explained:

“Long-term holder supply shock has reached all-time highs. Each time the metric has reached the upper bound of the highlighted green range, we’ve seen major price appreciation over the coming months. Buckle up.”


Long-term BTC holders have emerged to be notable players in the Bitcoin ecosystem as they set the accumulation ball rolling.

For instance, Bitcoin supply has been steadily maturing to long-term holders, given that nearly 2 million BTC have transitioned from short-term to long-term holders from the time an ATH price of $64.8K was attained in mid-April.

Bitcoin hash rate witnesses strong recovery

According to Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments:

“Bitcoin hash rate just hit April highs. A year ago, 60% of the network was in China. In May, the Bitcoin network had its legs and arms cut off. They completely regrew in just 6 months.”


Therefore, it shows the BTC hashrate has seen a substantial recovery ever since China intensified crypto mining in May.

For instance, Chinese authorities disconnected BTC mining sites in Sichuan in June. As a result, more than 90% of China’s crypto mining capacity was hampered.

The new development suggests that many BTC miners have successfully relocated to other regions, with earlier reports showing the United States had emerged as the biggest beneficiary.

Bitcoin miners are heavily cashing in

Crypto analytic firm Glassnode noted:

“The total value paid to Bitcoin miners via the block reward (subsidy + fees) is hovering around $40M/day. Compared to the 2020 Halving, current USD miner revenue is: – 275% higher vs pre-halving (12.5 $BTC/block subsidy) – 630% higher vs post-halving (6.25 BTC/block subsidy).”


Meanwhile, El Salvador’s decision to use volcano power to mine Bitcoin (BTC) propelled the leading cryptocurrency’s quest to accelerate renewable energy development. Therefore, this approach boosted Bitcoin’s carbon footprint of making crypto mining green.

Image source: Shutterstock


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Bitcoin Funding Flips Negative as BTC Records 10% Daily Loss as Over-Leverage Factor Dominates

Days after Bitcoin (BTC) breached the psychological price of $50K and scaled to the $52,000 level. The leading cryptocurrency experienced a significant pullback that prompted a $10K loss.


BTC was down by 10.83% in the last 24 hours to hit $45,834 during intraday trading, according to CoinMarketCap.

As a result, the Bitcoin futures perpetual funding rate turned negative. On-chain data provider Dilution-proof explained:

“Funding flipped negative, illustrating that there is currently a tendency to short Bitcoin. Now that over-leveraged longs have been flushed out of the market, could this be fertile ground for a nice little recovery bounce? Or is this perhaps a bit too soon?”


The funding rate turning negative was witnessed just hours after BTC perpetual swaps open interest recorded the highest point since mid-April after topping $16 billion. 

Crypto analytic firm Glassnode acknowledged:

“Over $4 Billion in Bitcoin open interest has been cleared during this sell-off. This is the most significant leverage flush out since the sell-off in mid-May.”


Long-term holders are showing a strong grip on their investment

According to the Bitcoin long-term holder net position change indicator, these investors still have a strong grip on their investments despite the latest drop in the market.



Dilution-proof added:

“While overexposed futures traders were liquidated, more risk-averse hodlers bought the dip, resulting in a decline in exchange balances of -4.6k BTC to a >3y low.”

The plunge in the BTC market occurred just after the leading cryptocurrency officially became a legal tender in El Salvador. Moreover, the nation’s president Nayib Bukele confirmed to purchase 150 Bitcoin amid the crypto market crash. 

Meanwhile, McDonald’s, a major US fast-food company, started accepting Bitcoin as a payment option in El Salvador on the Lightning Network powered by OpenNode. 

Image source: Shutterstock


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Number Of Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Hits All-Time Low, How This Affects The Price

Bitcoin has been doing good lately in the market. The digital asset broke the $50K price point earlier this week, before seeing a slight retracement down to $49K. This has been driven by a number of factors in the market. Growing interest is at the top of the list. As the price rallies, a number of interesting things have been happening in the Bitcoin space, ranging from holding patterns to the duration of the hold.

Recent data shows that the number of short-term bitcoin holders has declined to new lows. Most investors are now just holding their coins and not moving them out of their wallets. This is happening regardless of where the price of BTC is at any moment. A record of approximately 84% of the total bitcoin supply has not been moved in three months. This timeline coincides with the end of the last bull rally that saw the asset hit a new all-time to the present rally.

Related Reading | South African Man Loses $900,000 Worth Of Bitcoin After Accidentally Deleting Keys

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Investors Moving Bitcoin Out Of Exchanges

A bull rally that would usually lead to an accelerated rate of sell-off is now having the opposite effect. Instead of investors clamoring to sell off their coins and take profits as the price goes up, data shows that investors are hoarding their coins. This is apparent in the inflows and outflows from cryptocurrency exchanges.

Related Reading | Crypto Market Goes Into “Extreme Greed,” What This Means For Bitcoin

Mounting buy pressures is now the order of the day as long-term holders have refused to move any of their bitcoin holdings. With over 80% of total supply barely moved, demand has now exceeded supply in the market, which has led to growing BTC prices. The accumulation patterns show that long-term holders are just taking shares from short-term holders to add to their stash.

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Chart depicting low numbers of short-term bitcoin holders

Chart depicting low numbers of short-term bitcoin holders

Short-term BTC holders are down | Source: Twitter

This is leading to scarcity in the digital asset that will see buy pressures continue to go up while sell pressures drop. Outflows from crypto exchanges show that investors are accumulating and consolidating their BTC holdings for the long term.

Tides Are Changing, And So Are Hands

The past couple of years has seen bitcoin investors change their investment strategy in the market. Before, the predominant investing pattern was to buy the asset, hold for a period of time, then sell off during a bull rally. This has been the case for previous rallies. These patterns always plunged the market into a long bear stretch following a bull market.

Bitcoin price chart from

Bitcoin price chart from

BTC price corrects down below $50K | Source: BTCUSD on

But as the market has evolved, investors are evolving with it. The potential of BTC no longer is a short-term profit grab. Instead, coins are being held for the long term. Bitcoin’s growth over the years has shown that the asset is still only in its early stage of growth. So the next couple of years will most likely see the digital asset post bigger gains.

The number of weak hands in crypto is decreasing by the day. More investors are turning towards holding for the long term. Bitcoin now has more diamond hands in the market than there are weak hands.

Featured image from USA Today, chart from


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Bitcoin Supply Held by Long-Term Holders Surge to 66%

Long-term holders (LTHs) have emerged to be significant players in the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem. For instance, they have been setting the accumulation ball rolling by purchasing more BTC.

As a result, the Bitcoin supply held by LTHs continues going through the roof after recently hitting 66%. On-chain metrics provider Glassnode explained:

“The proportion of Bitcoin supply held by LTHs continues to trend higher as coins are held dormant. Previous bull markets were triggered when LTH supply reached between 63.6% and 71.5% although often after many months at these levels. LTHs currently hold 66% of the BTC supply.”


This holding uptrend was recently boosted by the recent dip, which saw lows of $29.5K hit. Therefore, long-term holders took advantage of the enormous buying opportunity presented. 

New Bitcoin users hit record-high

According to on-chain analyst Will Clemente:

“The number of new users coming on the Bitcoin network continues to reach new all time highs.”


Bitcoin adoption has been experiencing an uptick, with Sub-Saharan Africa and Northern America leading the pack. Reportedly, 46 million Americans own BTC, making the leading cryptocurrency one of the most held financial assets in the nation. 

BTC leaves exchanges in droves

Santiment, a crypto analytic firm, acknowledged that Bitcoin was experiencing a huge wave of coins exiting exchanges indicating less selloff risk because coins were being moved to offline wallets. Furthermore, this is bullish because it demonstrates a holding culture.


On the other hand, BTC hashrate is experiencing an uptrend, as acknowledged by Documenting Bitcoin. The market insight provider noted:

“Bitcoin hashrate is beginning to recover from one of the largest infrastructure displacements in modern history—with roughly 45% of the Bitcoin mining industry relocating continents.”

As LTHs currently hold 66% of Bitcoin supply, whether this will trigger a bull run as has been the case before remains to be seen.

Image source: Shutterstock


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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 41,064.00 6.56%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,202.88 7.07%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 72.11 7.44%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 228.98 9.13%