Crypto Market To Drop 80% Like Early Internet Company Stocks?, Why This Analyst Thinks So

The crypto market cap has recently begun to recover regaining $2 trillion. However, an analyst thinks a bear call could be in place given several similarities between the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the current crypto market.

Related Reading | Crypto Market Cap Regained $2 Trillion With Bitcoin Reaching At $45K

Crypto Mirrors The Internet. Good Or Bad News?

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Recent studies show that the adoption curve of cryptocurrencies is looking similar to the early adoption of the internet around 1993, which could point in at a hyper-inflection point to happen soon where crypto and its related technologies become a regular tool used in everyone’s day-to-day lives. This could call for demand to increase and value to rise with it.

However, an analyst predicts that similarities with the internet could turn into a repetition in history where the crypto market would drop around 80% as the Nasdaq did back in 2000 amidst the dotcom bubble, a result of speculative investments and an overabundance of capital markets funding dotcom startups that later failed to make a return.

Investopedia explains that the dotcom bubble “was a rapid rise in U.S. technology stock equity valuations fueled by investments in Internet-based companies in the late 1990s.” The Nasdaq rose five-fold between 1995 and 2000, but then dropped reaching almost 77% in losses by Oct. 4, 2002.

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“Even the share prices of blue-chip technology stocks like Cisco, Intel, and Oracle lost more than 80% of their value. It would take 15 years for the Nasdaq to regain its peak, which it did on April 24, 2015.”

Analyst Tasha Che shared via Twitter a take that traces the possibility for the crypto market to enter an extended bear market with a similar drop to the Nasdaq’s in the 2000s. Che sees these main similarities:

  • By 2000, the internet had a user base of 413 million people, around 6% of the world’s population. Nowadays, around 60% of the global population is using the internet, says Internet World Stats. In parallel, recent data collected by the GWI indicates that 10% of working-age internet users own some form of cryptocurrency, roughly 6% of the current world’s population as well.Ownership of Cryptocurrency by Age and Gender January 2022 DataReportal
  •  Both markets had a multi-year bull run due to the hype over “breakthrough tech” while being “thinly supported by actual use cases”.
  • “Monetary policy headwind”. In a similar macroeconomic scenario, in 2000 The Federal Reserve lifted 6 rate hikes by quarter-point in 1 year in an effort to slow down the rising prices of goods and services.
  • “In 2000 Bloomberg Internet Index reached a peak market cap of $2.9 trillion (about $3.5 trillion to today’s dollars)”, which then fell to $1,2 trillion by the end of the same year. Chen believes that “Given internet stocks back then cover wider subsectors than crypto today, a $2.5-3 trillion market cap would put crypto at par w/ dot-com valuation then.”
Crypto total market cap at $1,9 trillion in the daily chart | Source:

The expert further noted that the two years that Nasdaq dropped 80%, “It was blessing in disguise for internet industry–weeded out opportunists, gave real builders breathing room to build & allowed organic growth. But absolutely brutal for investors.”

Chen states that this opinion is not “a straight bear call” given that “history doesn’t repeat blow by blow”, but with such a similar setup she thinks it may be “in the cards”. The missing factor is a blow-off top, which is defined as “a sudden rise in price and volume, followed by a sharp decline in price also with high volume.”

If that blow-off top happens in the next few months by going back to the $3 trillion cryptos total market cap range, Chen thinks we would “almost surely see history rhymes.”

Related Reading | Crypto Winter Is Thawing With Bitcoin And Ethereum Rebound Signal

The Opposite View

However, other users pointed out that Chen’s data does not properly take into account the nearly 5x M2 money supply increase over the last 20 years, which has risen from $4.6 trillion in 2000 to $18.45 trillion in 2020.

Another user noted that the two markets may not be systemically correlated outside of sentiment given that the Internet speculation in 2000 gave foot to the overly inflated market, but the now speculation in crypto could be seen as “a parallel liquid market.”

It was also pointed out that crypto represents a different case due to the assets being more reflexive. Growth in usage can reflect in price and increases in price can lead to usage. However, the dotcom bubble did not slow down internet usage as “nobody needed to buy AMZN to use Amazon.”


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Crypto in Early Stages of ‘Hyper Adoption Phase’: Banking Giant Wells Fargo

American banking behemoth Wells Fargo says the current state of cryptocurrencies is comparable to the internet in the mid-to-late 1990s.

In a new special report, the financial giant advises patience for investors looking to jump into the still maturing crypto space.

“For today’s investor trying to figure out if we are early or late to cryptocurrency investing, looking at technology investing in the mid-to-late 1990s seems reasonable. At that time, the internet hit a hyper-adoption phase and never looked back. Cryptocurrencies appear to be at a similar stage today. Cryptocurrency investment options today, however, are still maturing and we advise patience…

We do not recommend any of the other current investment options, such as mutual funds, ETFs, grantor trusts, and individual cryptocurrency speculation. We are hopeful that greater regulatory clarity in 2022 brings higher-quality investment options.”

The report doubles down on comparing blockchain technology to the internet, suggesting that cryptocurrencies are following the internet’s path from adoption to hyper-adoption.

“Cryptocurrency adoption rates look to be following the path of other earlier advanced technologies, particularly the internet. If this trend continues, cryptocurrencies could soon exit the early adoption phase and enter an inflection point of hyper-adoption, similar to other technologies seen in Chart 3.

Notice in Chart 3 that there is a point where adoption rates begin to rise and do not look back. For the internet, that point was the mid-to-late 1990s. After a slow start in the early 1990s, internet use surged from 77 million in 1996 to 412 million in 2000. By 2010, worldwide internet use had grown to 1.98 billion, and today it sits at 4.9 billion.”

Source: WellsFargo

The Wells Fargo report suggests that cryptocurrency technology may even be further along than the internet of the late-nineties in terms of adoption.

“Chart 4 helps visualize why we believe that cryptocurrencies may have reached an adoption inflection point similar to where the internet was in the mid-to-late 1990s. Chart 4 compares global user growth between the internet, starting in 1993 (Chart 4, solid red line), and cryptocurrency users, starting in 2014 (Chart 4, dashed purple line).

Based on this comparison alone, it appears that cryptocurrency use today may even be a little ahead of the mid-to-late 1990s internet. Precise numbers aside, there is no doubt that global cryptocurrency adoption is rising, and could soon hit a hyper-inflection point.”

Source: WellsFargo

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RSS3 aims to be the decentralized information processor of Web3

Really Simple Syndication (RSS), the first information distribution protocol that saw massive adoption across the internet is all set to take on Web3 with a decentralized information processing protocol called RSS3.

In a technical whitepaper released on Monday, RSS3 laid out plans for taking its popular internet feed update to Web3. RSS3 would offer every entity an RSS3 file that will act as source data and be updated continuously. The source data file then can be used as an aggregation of all the cyber activities, which can then be used to build out social media, content networks, games and other data-driven applications. The source data would have control on which information to broadcast and which to keep private.

RSS is a feed file containing a summary of a website’s updates, usually in a list of articles with hyperlinks. These feed files were meant to be decentralized and played a key role in exchanging information across the internet. However, the monopoly of centralized web hosting services providers has led to the creation of the decentralized RSS3.

Related: Decentralized technology will end the Web3 privacy conundrum

The official paper noted that building a decentralized information processing protocol from scratch was quite a complex task and might take another six to eight months for building RSS3 nodes. The developers are in the process of building a DAO system as well, but believe a true decentralization would take time.

The development team has partnered with Ethereum, Arweave, Polygon, BSC, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Flow, and xDAI to roll out the protocol across various decentralized networks.

The team behind the decentralized protocol has closed two funding rounds until now that saw participation from the likes of Coinbase Ventures, Dapper Labs, Dragonfly Capital, Fabric Ventures, and several others.