Predicting The Bitcoin Bull Top And Bear Bottom With Ichimoku

The Bitcoin June candle close is ugly, and clearly shows indecision in the market. Is the bull market structure broken, or are new highs still likely this year? No one knows, and price action has reached a stalemate.

However, the Ichimoku indicator could not only provide information on what happens if support holds or fails across crypto, it could also provide clues as to when Bitcoin tops and even finds its next bear market bottom.

All About The Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Technical Analysis Indicator

The Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō is a popular technical analysis tool designed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the late 1930s. Hosoda was nicknamed Ichimoku Sanjin, which loosely translates to “what a man in the mountain sees.”

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Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō also loosely translates to “at a glance equilibrium chart” and is among the few tools out there that provides insight and perspective on price and time.

bitcoin ichimoku support and resistance

bitcoin ichimoku support and resistance

Price action is stuck between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen  | Source: BTCUSD on

The A and B Senkou Spans are plotted forward in time to show where support and resistance might lie and make up the outline of the Kumo or cloud. The Chikou Span is backward-plotted and also shows support and resistance.

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Related Reading | Parabolic Bitcoin Indicator Points To Dangerous Collapse To Below $20K

Finally, the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen can also play the role of support and resistance, which Bitcoin price is currently sandwiched between on the monthly. The example above shows all these spans in action, and how price action has respected each level.

Importantly, depending on how the two spans are crossed can indicate if the market is bearish or bullish. The Tenkan-sen above the Kijun-sen suggests Bitcoin is bullish, and the sideways movement of the two point to a market in consolidation. bitcoin ichimoku timing

bitcoin ichimoku timing

Bitcoin is still bullish according to the last crossover | Source: BTCUSD on

Can The Cloud Predict The Bitcoin Top And Bottom?

Knowing how the Chikou Span works, it is clear to see that given the strength of the rally over the last several months, there is very little monthly support until $14,000 – former resistance.

If Bitcoin price loses the Kijun-sen that’s currently supporting it from below, the Chikou Span must hold next or its the Kumo or cloud at around $10,000 as the target.

Another scenario has Bitcoin holding just fine at the Kijun-sen and taking back off to the final bull market high. If this happens, the Kumo might still come into play, but to help time when – not where – the bear market bottom ends.

bitcoin ichimoku bear market bottom

bitcoin ichimoku bear market bottom

Could the Ichimoku predict the next bear market bottom? | Source: BTCUSD on

Note that the twist in the Kumo from red to green in late 2018 set the bottom of the last bear market, the same signal now plotted forward could help to predict when Bitcoin bottoms in the next cycle.

As for where, looking at the last cycle the bottom trading range happened to be where the one red doji was during the last bull market once a new all-time high was made. If the cycle does continue from here, around $30,000 could act as the eventual bear market bottom in late 2022.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bulls Bring Out Hammer Of Thor Reversal, But Support Must Hold

The final small green bump in the Kumo the begins in late 2021 could be where the peak takes place. However, if a bear market starts instead, things could get extremely dangerous. As you now know, the Ichimoku provides all kinds of signals “at a glance” and a Kumo twist also can represent weakness in support.

If the Kijun-Sen is lost and all other supports shredded, that Kumo twist could lead to lows that no one in crypto ever saw coming.

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April Showers Could Blossom Return Of Bitcoin Bull Run This May

A storm monthly of April is now in the past, and although the forecast was looking glooming for Bitcoin for a while there, bulls are breaking through the clouds and it could blossom another bullish impulse higher.

Here’s a closer look at the technical Indicator that suggests the top crypto is back to bull mode after a few rainy days. We’ll also learn for sure if the phrase “April showers brings May flowers” is true.

Will A Stormy April Bring A Bountiful May For Bitcoin?

The idiom “April showers bring May flowers” stems from a proverb first recorded in 1886 that fully reads “March winds and April showers bring forth May flowers.”

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For Bitcoin, a windstorm in March sent the cryptocurrency to historic highs, but things turned cloudy come April – a month know historically for its rain showers.

Related Reading | Bears Salivate As Bitcoin Monthly Close Leads To Indecision

Inclement weather in early Spring however waters the soil in which new life grows. Could the same idea apply to the bull market? After a month of indecision to close out April, the clouds are starting to part and it could lead to brighter days ahead for Bitcoin once again.

bitcoin ichimoku daily

bitcoin ichimoku daily

Bitcoin has reclaimed the cloud and is trying to hold as support | Source: BTCUSD on

What The Ichimoku Indicator Says About The Crypto Bull Run Continuing

The Ichimoku indicator is an in-depth technical tool offering an “at a glance” look at the market. The cloud grows or shrinks with volatility, and depending on which lines are crossed over the other, it can signal when the asset is bullish or bearish.

The cloud itself and the lagging span marked in green behind the price action, also can indicate where support or resistance might lie.

Related Reading | Creator Of Flawless Top Indicator Says Bitcoin Isn’t Done, Despite Signal

The cloud, or kumo had acted as support for Bitcoin in late April, but eventually lost support. Only one daily candle closed outside the cloud, suggesting a possible bear trap was successful.

After a struggle, bulls have pushed BTCUSD back above the cloud which is now attempting to hold as support. At the same time, resistance in the area is strong as shown by the arrow above the lagging span. There’s also been a bearish crossover of the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, and kumo twist – both signs that sunny days aren’t quite here just yet.

bitcoin ichimoku weekly

bitcoin ichimoku weekly

Finding support on the weekly cloud kicked off the bull run | Source: BTCUSD on

Holding above the cloud is crucial to another leg up in Bitcoin. On weekly timeframes, it was the signal that set off the most recent bullish impulse in the first place. It is now up to the daily cloud to keep it going.

Can Bitcoin price action remain above the clouds and push to the heavens higher?

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Altcoins Bleed After Tesla Bitcoin Buy, BTC Dominance Hints At Deception

Over the weekend, altcoins began to pull back after an enormous market-wide rally, starting with Ethereum. And while the market looked to be turning bearish, news of a massive Bitcoin buy made by auto manufacturer Tesla set the crypto market on fire.

On Bitcoin pairs, altcoins began to hemorrhage across the board. But according to a certain technical indicator and BTC dominance, the price action could be nothing more than a short-lived shakeout before the full alt season begins.

Tesla Buys Bitcoin, Crypto Fever Boils Over

As if the magma-hot crypto market needed another reason for coins to be trending, an SEC-filing revealed that Tesla had purchased $1.5 billion worth of BTC.

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The buy itself was made some time prior, but news of it caused a wave of FOMO and prices began to rocket. Exchanges like Binance went down due to the sheer demand of investors looking to buy Bitcoin.

Related Reading | Altcoin Season Is Here: “Buy Crypto” Surpases Bitcoin Searches On Google

Not only are they looking to buy more BTC in hopes of capitalizing of further upside, but given the nod of support from the likes of Elon Musk, crypto investors have even been dumping altcoins in exchange for more Bitcoin.

But according to the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technical indicator and BTC dominance, looks can be deceiving.

News Leaves Altcoins Battered, But BTC Dominance Suggests It’s A Shakeout

BTC dominance is a metric that weighs the giant market share Bitcoin commands against the rest of the space. The top cryptocurrency has long enjoyed two-thirds or more dominance, but is at risk of losing it for good.

After another attempt to set new highs in dominance, BTC simmered down and fell back to under 63% as Ethereum broke its former record, and other alts soared.

btc dominance bitcoin bearish retest cloud

btc dominance bitcoin bearish retest cloud

BTC.D is being rejected by the Ichimoku cloud on weekly timeframes | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on

And while it seems as though dominance is ready to reverse once again, the Ichimoku suggests this is bearish retest in progress. In the chart above, the green candle is back trying to break into the cloud on weekly timeframes. Three failed weeks have left wicks into the cloud, but further upside in dominance hasn’t materialized.

Related Reading | Altcoin Market Cap On The Verge Of Life-Changing Breakout

After repeated rejections, the most likely scenario is down for BTC dominance. And if this happens, the recent altcoin rallies were barely the start of what’s to come for upside.

On higher, monthly timeframes, the story told is similar. A massive green candle was entirely engulfed by bears, meaning altcoins have finally turned the corner against Bitcoin.

btc dominance bitcoin monthly altcoin

btc dominance bitcoin monthly altcoin

Even more bearish signals exist on monthly timeframes | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on

Price action on monthly BTC.D charts show that a red candle is barely hanging onto the baseline on the Ichimoku also. A close below it, suggests further downside.

A plummet deep below 63% is likely if the support turned resistance continues to reject BTC.D. Could the greatest alt season on record be just days away? Adding more credence to the theory, recently, Google searches for “buy crypto” began to outpace “buy Bitcoin” for the first time.

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Altcoin Season Delayed, Alt Crypto Market Cap Stuck In The Clouds

Bitcoin is trading a few thousand above its former peak at $20,000, but the spark of a new altcoin season hasn’t yet arrived in the crypto industry. One reason for the delay of the bullish advance is because the total altcoin market cap has gotten itself stuck in the clouds.

But as soon as the clouds and related turbulence are cleared, there won’t be any resistance left in the atmosphere preventing the rest of the asset class from catching up with Bitcoin and taking off toward the moon.

Bitcoin FOMO Returns To Crypto Market, But Top Alts Unaffected Thus Far

Bitcoin was the first-ever cryptocurrency to be created, and anything that came after the fact that isn’t a direct fork of the crypto asset is considered an altcoin.

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Even Ethereum or XRP that command a large share of the overall crypto market cap of their own, are still categorized under the altcoin class.

When Bitcoin first exploded into the mainstream in 2017, the FOMO and related flood of capital pouring into the crypto market in search of the next big thing, resulted in what to this day is referred to as “altcoin season.”

Related Reading | Prelude To Altcoin Season: Ethereum Active Addresses Revisit ‘DeFi Summer’ Highs

During this phase, Ethereum ballooned to $1,400, XRP surged to over $3.58 per token, and the rest of the altcoin space performed just as well – if not better.

With Bitcoin now trading well above its all-time high once again, crypto investing vets have anticipated another altcoin season of similar proportions, but it has yet to happen. And that’s because the total altcoin market cap can’t get its head out of the clouds.

total 2 altcoin crypto market cap alt season cloud

total 2 altcoin crypto market cap alt season cloud

Altcoins get stuck in the Ichimoku cloud, but a bullish crossover has formed | Source: CRYPTOCAP-TOTAL2 on

Why Another Altcoin Season Or Bear Market Will Be Decided This Month

According to the total crypto market cap sans Bitcoin, looking only at the remaining over $200 billion in capital that altcoins bring to the table, price action on monthly timeframes was rejected at Ichimoku cloud resistance.

The Ichimoku cloud, also called the Kumo, can act as support or resistance, and the size of each cloud indicates how turbulent the price action has been, similar to how Bollinger Bands widen with volatility.

And while running headfirst into cloud resistance isn’t a great sign for altcoins, thus far, the December monthly candle is holding above the bottom support of the cloud. Bitcoin dominance also shows a very important December close, coinciding with the total altcoin cap.

The large November candle pushed altcoins into the cloud, more importantly, triggered a bullish crossover of the indicator’s baseline and conversion line, also called the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen.

A bearish crossover is also depicted on the chart above to demonstrate the significance of the trend change that takes place alongside the crossover if confirmed.

The Ichimoku looks at past, current, and future price action, and the red cloud lasting another year ahead could suggest an extended phase of bearish price action.

total 2 altcoin crypto market cap moon

total 2 altcoin crypto market cap moon

Here's why crypto investors are salivating over alt season | Source: CRYPTOCAP-TOTAL2 on

However, if the total altcoin market cap can break above the cloud, the chart directly above acts as an example of what a proper altcoin season can bring for investor returns.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Dominance In December: Why The Future Of Altcoins Hinge On This Month’s Close

With negative sentiment surrounding many of these assets and institutional focus on Bitcoin alone, there’s no telling if altcoins will ever revisit their former all-time highs.

So before any chance of moon, altcoin holders must wish upon a star that the total crypto market cap sans Bitcoin can finally get above the clouds.

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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 26,919.21 2.19%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,650.79 2.93%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 65.01 2.88%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 235.66 2.62%