Pantera Capital Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $35k Before 2024 Halving and Surge to $148k Afterward

In a recent publication by Pantera Capital, the firm delved into the concept of a “positive black swan” event in the blockchain industry. The term “black swan” traditionally refers to unpredictable events with potentially severe consequences. However, in this context, Pantera Capital highlights the positive implications of such events for the blockchain sector.

Key takeaways include:

Historical Bitcoin Price Predictions

Pantera Capital references historical trends to make a significant prediction about Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The firm states, “If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.”

Blockchain’s Rapid Growth

The blockchain sector has witnessed exponential growth over the past few years. Pantera Capital cites that the number of blockchain users has doubled every twelve months. This rapid adoption rate underscores the increasing acceptance and integration of blockchain technologies in various industries.

Bitcoin’s Resilience

In the face of regulatory hurdles and market shifts, Bitcoin has showcased significant stability. Pantera Capital points out that, over the last 90 days, Bitcoin’s price fluctuations have been steadier than 87% of stocks in the S&P 500.

DeFi’s Potential

Decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms have garnered significant attention and investment. Pantera Capital emphasizes the potential of DeFi to revolutionize traditional financial systems by offering decentralized alternatives.

Blockchain’s Positive Impact

The article suggests that blockchain technology can play a pivotal role in addressing global challenges. From improving supply chain transparency to fostering financial inclusion, blockchain solutions have the potential to drive positive change on a global scale.

Future Outlook

Pantera Capital remains optimistic about the future of blockchain and its transformative potential. The firm believes that as the technology matures, its impact will be even more profound, touching various facets of our daily lives.

In conclusion, while black swan events are typically associated with negative outcomes, Pantera Capital presents a compelling case for the positive impact of such events in the blockchain domain. The firm’s insights underscore the transformative potential of blockchain technology and its role in shaping the future of various industries.

About Pantera Capital

Established by Dan Morehead, the former Head of Macro Trading and CFO at Tiger Management, Pantera Capital stands as a prominent figure in the investment arena. The firm’s adeptness in global macro strategies has seen it oversee more than $1 billion in institutional allocations. In a pioneering move in 2013, Pantera introduced the United States to its first blockchain hedge and venture funds. The firm observed a swift rise in the adoption of digital assets globally, a trend accentuated during the COVID-19 pandemic, serving as a countermeasure against unparalleled fiscal and monetary expansion. Additionally, a noteworthy transition in the fiscal domain is evident as major public corporations have begun incorporating Bitcoin into their financial reserves.

Pantera Capital’s investments span a myriad of blockchain initiatives, encompassing but not restricted to Zcash, Xapo, Wintermute, Ripple, Polkadot, Near, Filecoin, Coinbase, Circle, BitGo, and Bitstamp.

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Is the Narrative about Bitcoin’s 4-Year Halving Cycle Diminishing?

With Bitcoin’s current return of approximately 456% since the third halving event in May 2020, this is a significant underachievement compared to the two previous cycles of 2012 and 2016, which had recorded 1,355% and 4,974% respectively at this point in time. 

Market insight provider CryptoCompare confirmed:

“BTC returns from this cycle underperform the two previous cycles which returned 4,974% and 1,355% respectively at this point in time. This fuels the fear that the 4yr cycle that many market participants believe in is no longer an appropriate narrative.”


Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s present return is higher than traditional asset classes like S&P 500 with 59.3%.

Bitcoin halving refers to the reduction of Bitcoin block rewards, which occurs once every 210,000 blocks are created, and it usually happens around every four years. Block reward refers to the amount of Bitcoin received by miners after they successfully validate a new block. The rationale behind this is Bitcoin’s design, whose total supply is capped at 21 million coins. 

Bitcoin’s third halving took place on May 11, effectively reducing the block rewards from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per new block. This was the third time in its history that this event was happening as the previous ones occurred in 2012 and 2016. Precisely, Bitcoin’s block rewards went down to 25 from 50 Bitcoin per block in November 2012. It further decreased to 12.5 units in July 2016. 

The logic behind halving events is that more BTC gets mined as more people utilize the Bitcoin network. Therefore, by slashing the mining rewards by half, retrieving this digital asset becomes difficult, increasing its value based on limited supply.

Meanwhile, the number of Bitcoin whales continues to grow. 


“The number of whale addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC has 193 more addresses in this prestigious club, compared to just 10 weeks ago. The number of whales in this tier has shown some strikingly impressive parallels to BTC price, historically,” according to crypto analytic firm Santiment.

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Only 10% of Bitcoin supply left to mine

Total circulating Bitcoin (BTC) hit a significant milestone on Monday morning, one and a half years after the last Bitcoin halving, as 90% of the maximum total supply has been mined.

Current data from shows Bitcoin in circulation hit 18.899 million as of Dec. 13, meaning only 10% of the total supply is left to mine. While the first 90% of BTC took about 12 years to mine, the rest will take a little longer.

Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins set by its anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. This limitation is written in Bitcoin’s source code and enforced by network nodes. The hard cap on Bitcoin is critical to its value proposition as a currency and an investment tool.

Bitcoin circulating supply. Source:

As detailed by Cointelegraph, it would take 119 years from now to complete the Bitcoin mining process due to the rate of producing new Bitcoin being cut by half every four years in a pre-determined protocol execution, also known as the Bitcoin halving.

Related: The history of Bitcoin: When did Bitcoin start?

Since the Bitcoin blockchain only creates new BTC as a reward for miners verifying new blocks, the halving ensures less Bitcoin is produced as the total circulating supply increases. Since May 2020, miners have earned 6.25 Bitcoin for every new block verified. This rate would decrease to 3.125 BTC per block in the next halving in 2024.

By 2040, the block reward will have reduced to less than 0.2 BTC and only 80,000 Bitcoin out of 21 million will be left up for grabs. The last Bitcoin would take close to 40 years to mine.

The Bitcoin price started the week with a fresh rejection of $50,000 as the end-of-year close is fast approaching. It is almost 30% down from its all-time high of $68,789 reached on Nov. 10 at the time of publishing.