SEC rejects application for Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust spot ETF

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has disapproved asset manager Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust spot exchange-traded fund application.

According to a Thursday filing, the SEC rejected a proposed rule change from the Cboe BZX Exchange to list and trade shares of Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin (BTC) Trust. The regulatory body said any rule change in favor of approving the ETF would not be aimed at preventing “fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices” nor would it necessarily “protect investors and the public interest.”

The SEC extended its deliberation window to approve or deny the offering in July and November following Fidelity’s original application in March 2021 — but published in the Federal Register on June 1. The SEC added that the BZX exchange “has not met its burden under the Exchange Act and the Commission’s Rules of Practice to demonstrate that its proposal is consistent with the requirements of Exchange Act Section.”

“It is essential for an exchange listing a derivative securities product to enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement with markets trading the underlying assets for the listing exchange to have the ability to obtain information necessary to detect, investigate, and deter fraud and market manipulation, as well as violations of exchange rules and applicable federal securities laws and rules,” stated the SEC ruling.

The decision followed separate filings from the SEC on Tuesday extending its window on a proposed rule change to allow shares from agricultural fund provider Teucrium tracking Bitcoin futures to be listed on NYSE Arca and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF to be listed on the Cboe BZX Exchange. The final extension from the regulator will likely result in a decision by April 8 and April 3, respectively.

While the SEC has yet to approve ETFs with direct exposure to BTC, the regulator gave the green light to investment vehicles linked to BTC derivatives for the first time in October 2021. At the time of publication, shares of Bitcoin futures-linked funds from Valkyrie and ProShares are currently listed on Nasdaq, with VanEck’s Bitcoin Strategy ETF trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

Related: Valkyrie aims for ETF linked to Bitcoin mining firms on Nasdaq

Many analysts do not expect SEC officials to approve Bitcoin-linked ETFs anytime soon. The regulatory body is

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Here’s What Will Matter More Than Ever for Bitcoin in 2022, According to Fidelity Macro Strategist

Jurrien Timmer, a macro strategist at financial giant Fidelity, is revising his outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) after the leading cryptocurrency dipped below a key price level.

In a thread to his 86,700 Twitter followers, Timmer says that he was surprised to see Bitcoin not hold the line at $40,000 after falling steadily from its November all-time high above $69,000.

“It has been a bad trip for crypto. The GS [Glassnode] Bitcoin-sensitive equity basket already took out its 2021 lows – not a great sign.

I thought $40k would be a bottom, based on my demand model and on-chain dynamics (via the dormancy flow indicator), but here we are at $35k.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

Next citing past trends of weak hands capitulating to strong hands, Timmer does see the potential for Bitcoin to reverse course and rise once again.

“Bitcoin often overshoots the upside and downside, though, so maybe that’s all that is happening here.

Here is the ‘entity-adjusted dormancy flow,’ which measures the transfer from weak hands to strong hands. It is in the range that has stopped every previous decline.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

Regarding Bitcoin supply and demand, the analyst says,

“The lower Bitcoin falls, the more undervalued it will become on a fundamental basis.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

Timmer also highlights that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is “back in the support zone and is 1.51 standard deviations from its trendline.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

The strategist shares his final chart as an indicator that “short-term momentum is now sporting a bullish divergence.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

Timmer concludes his analysis by saying that although Bitcoin has suffered a rough ride that also saw speculative stocks crumble, BTC’s strong fundamentals remain intact.

“Bitcoin clearly got caught in the liquidity storm that is now sweeping the more-speculative side of the stock market.

But unlike non-profitable tech stocks, Bitcoin has a fundamental underpinning that will likely get more compelling over time.

Now that the liquidity tide is going back out, the fundamentals should matter more than ever in 2022.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading sideways at $36,899. It began the year valued at $47,292, marking a 22% decline since.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Fidelity Says What We’ve Been Thinking: Countries & Central Banks Will Buy BTC

Surprising the world, Fidelity predicts what Bitcoin’s game theory implies. It’s as Satoshi Nakamoto said, “It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on.” That’s the exact same conclusion that Fidelity reaches in its “Research Round-Up: 2021 Trends And Their Potential Future Impact” report. Take into account that Fidelity is a multinational financial services corporation, it doesn’t get more mainstream than this.

What did Fidelity say about Bitcoin adoption at the nation-states and central bank level? 

They put it very clearly:

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“We also think there is very high stakes game theory at play here, whereby if bitcoin adoption increases, the countries that secure some bitcoin today will be better off competitively than their peers. Therefore, even if other countries do not believe in the investment thesis or adoption of bitcoin, they will be forced to acquire some as a form of insurance. In other words, a small cost can be paid today as a hedge compared to a potentially much larger cost years in the future.” 

In other words, It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. And, as Stacy Herbert said, “First mover advantage goes to El Salvador”. At least if we’re talking out in the open, because other countries might be accumulating Bitcoin on the down-low. For example, Venezuela seized a lot of ASICs from private miners. Chances are those are active in a warehouse somewhere. And, of course, there are rumors that the USA is already mining.

In any case, what does Fidelity conclude?

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“We therefore wouldn’t be surprised to see other sovereign nation states acquire bitcoin in 2022 and perhaps even see a central bank make an acquisition.”

If those players do it in the open, it will probably trigger a race like no other. A race in which it will be too risky not to participate. 

Speaking About Bitcoin Mining…

Fidelity’s report summarized 2021, it goes through most of the major stories that NewsBTC has covered ad nauseam. The company doesn’t try to figure out why did China ban Bitcoin mining, but it highlights how fast the hashrate recovered

“The recovery in hash rate this year was truly astounding and one that we think demonstrates several issues that will be important to keep in mind for 2022 and beyond.”

The Fidelity report also highlighted how well the network responded. “This has now been tested and bitcoin’s network performed perfectly.”

BTCUSD price chart for 01/17/2021 - TradingView

BTC price chart for 01/17/2022 on Eightcap | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

What Does Fidelity Say About The Ecosystem In General?

The report wasn’t exclusively about Bitcoin, they also identified the biggest trends in the wide crypto sphere.

“The biggest non-Bitcoin themes put on display this past year included the massive issuance of stablecoins, the maturation of decentralized finance, and the early days of non-fungible tokens.”

And about those trends, Fidelity predicted:


  • “The growth in interconnectivity between siloed blockchains”


  • “Traditional fintech companies partnering or building capabilities to interact with DeFi protocols”


  • “The dawn of decentralized algorithmic stablecoins has officially begun.” Responding to the “growth in demand for more regulated, centralized stablecoins.”


  • “While the long-term value of these NFTs is not known, the impact of increased digital property rights for art, music, and content is likely to be meaningful in some form.”

In general, Fidelity thinks that investment in digital assets will keep growing:

“Allocating to digital assets has become far more normalized over the past two years for all investors. The Fidelity Digital Assets 2021 Institutional Investor Survey found that 71% of U.S. and European institutional investors surveyed intend to allocate to digital assets in the future. This number has grown across each individual region of the survey for the past three years, and we expect 2022 to show another year of higher current and future asset allocations to digital assets amongst institutions.” 

However, something has to happen to catalyze widespread institutional adoption. “The key to allowing traditional allocators to continue to pour capital into the digital asset ecosystem revolves around regulatory clarity and accessibility.”

Is 2022 the year of regulatory clarity? What will happen first, institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies or nation-states adoption of Bitcoin? What central bank will earn first-mover advantage? Burning questions for the year ahead.

Featured Image by Damir Spanic on Unsplash  | Charts by TradingView

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Investment Giant Fidelity Says Countries That Adopt Bitcoin Early May Outperform Their Peers: Report

Financial services giant Fidelity says that more nations will buy Bitcoin (BTC) this year to remain competitive.

In a new report, strategists at the firm say that a high-stakes form of game theory is in play and countries who don’t adopt the top crypto asset by market cap early could fall behind their peers.

“If Bitcoin adoption increases, the countries that secure some Bitcoin today will be better off competitively than their peers.

Therefore, even if other countries do not believe in the investment thesis or adoption of BTC, they will be forced to acquire some as a form of insurance.

In other words, a small cost can be paid today as a hedge compared to a potentially much larger cost years in the future. We therefore wouldn’t be surprised to see other sovereign nation states acquire Bitcoin in 2022 and perhaps even see a central bank make an acquisition.”

According to Fidelity, incoming regulations such as the US infrastructure bill that was passed in November will help cryptocurrencies validate themselves as a legitimate asset class.

Fidelity says that even though the legislation is vague, there are lawmakers who are aware of this and are scrambling to amend the bill in order to save it.

“The legislation isn’t slated to go into effect until 2024 and there are already multiple amendments being proposed, so time will tell what becomes of the legislation itself.

But what we think is most notable is that digital asset regulation becoming law is another milestone as the asset class comes of age and establishes itself.”

Bitcoin is exchanging hands at $43,546 at time of writing, a 6.5% increase from its seven-day low of $40,897.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Fidelity Macro Strategist Says Bitcoin Has Drawn a Major Line in the Sand at $40,000 – Here’s What It Means

Jurrien Timmer, a macro strategist at financial giant Fidelity, says that Bitcoin (BTC) may have found a new level of support that’s 33% higher than previously believed.

In a thread to his 80,000 Twitter followers, Timmer says that a little-known metric called “dormancy flow” might be the key to pegging Bitcoin’s bottom at $40,000.

“A few days ago I made the case that 40k could be the new 30k for Bitcoin, based on the rising intrinsic value from my S-curve model.

I just came across an indicator that further suggests this: Dormancy flow. It has reached the kind of oversold levels seen at past bottoms.”

Timmer provides a chart that tracks data since Bitcoin’s 2011 inception in which the price of BTC ranges within the demand S-curve.

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

Concerning analytics firm Glassnode’s term “dormancy flow” and how it factors in time elapsed between coin transactions, Timmer says,

“To me, this is further evidence that 40k could be a major line in the sand, much like 30k was last year.”

The tweet thread follows on the heels of a previous post where Timmer says in light of Federal Reserve policies and rising inflation, Bitcoin appears to be oversold at $40,000.

“Is $40k the new $30k? The Fed’s hawkish stance on inflation has had broad impact.

With the liquidity-driven momentum plays under pressure, it’s not a total shock that crypto has corrected.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

The strategist concludes by saying that he believes Bitcoin remains a store-of-value asset just like gold.

“I like to compare Bitcoin to that other more traditional store-of-value, gold.

Here we see that the BTC/gold ratio has fallen back to the breakout zone from last year.

Technically the ratio is moderately oversold.”

Image
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

At time of writing, Bitcoin is up a fraction on the day and trading for $43,369.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Why Sovereign Nation States May Begin Acquiring Bitcoin In 2022

Bitcoin has grown from being ‘internet money’ used by only a few thousand people during its first few years to being part of the balance sheets of big companies and sovereign states. El Salvador is a case in point for a country that has committed fully to the bitcoin mission, putting millions of dollars into the digital asset as a national reserve.

While bitcoin is still a long way from being the de facto reserve currency of all countries, its growth points to countries not being able to ignore it for much longer. That’s why it is expected that more nation-states will purchase the cryptocurrency in the next year.

Fidelity On Why Countries Will Purchase Bitcoin

In a recent report published by Fidelity, it goes into depth about bitcoin and the role it may play in deciding which countries are the economic leaders of the world. This is because as the asset becomes more widely spread as a reserve currency, the countries who hold bitcoin may see their influence grow higher than those who do not, despite where they might stand today.

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Related Reading | Jack Dorsey Launches Bitcoin Defense Fund To Aid Devs Facing Litigation

History has always shown that those who are quick to accept innovation and new technology have always ended up faring better compared to those who do not, and that may well be the case with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Fidelity also refers to it as a “very high stakes game theory.” If bitcoin adoption continues to grow, then those who got in earlier will no doubt be better off than the rest. This will push other countries to also acquire the digital asset as “insurance” so as to not be left behind even if they do not believe in the investment thesis or the adoption of the digital asset.

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Basically, sovereign nation-states would purchase bitcoin sort of as a hedge, in case it does end up being important in the future. “In other words, a small cost can be paid today as a hedge compared to a potentially much larger cost years in the future.”

A Total Ban Will Be Difficult

Touching on the ban debate that has raged on in the space, the report explained that banning bitcoin outright would be hard to achieve. Although not impossible, it could certainly lead to a significant loss of wealth and opportunity, it added.

Related Reading | Highlighting Risk: These Crypto Coins Carry The Most Leverage

There is yet to be an all-encompassing bill passed in regards to cryptocurrencies which provides total regulatory clarity. The infrastructure bill which was passed last year and scheduled to go into effect in 2024 continues to be subjected to numerous amendments, and with such a long time frame till implementation, there is no telling where the bill might end up.

However, Fidelity noted in its report that a digital asset regulation being passed into law will be a milestone for bitcoin, stating that “what we think is most notable is that digital asset regulation becoming law is another milestone as the asset class comes of age and establishes itself.”

Bitcoin price chart from TradingView.com

BTC trending above $43K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from Bitcoin News, chart from TradingView.com

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Fidelity Investments Canada to Add Bitcoin Exposure to All-in-One ETFs

The multinational financial services corporation aims to make several changes to its Fidelity All-in-One Growth ETF and Fidelity All-in-One Balanced ETF, including adding a small allocation to the company’s Bitcoin ETF.

  • After several unsuccessful attempts to launch a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the States, Fidelity, through its Canadian branch, released such a product up north late last year.
  • Now, the company has announced that it will provide a wider adoption for the fund by including it in some of the larger ETFs.
  • By adding a small allocation of Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF within Fidelity All-in-One Growth ETF and Fidelity All-in-One Balanced ETF, firm customers will be able to get BTC exposure through those ETFs starting from later this month.
  • After this addition, the company will change the risk ratings of the two traditional ETFs. Both will be labeled as “medium” risky, while they were low-to-medium until now.
  • Fidelity said it based its decision on the idea to diversify its larger ETFs with “the potential to improve risk-adjusted returns going forward.”
  • Fidelity has displayed a pro-bitcoin stance for years, becoming one of the most open companies from the traditional financial sphere. Aside from multiple products tracking the performance of the asset, its Director of Macro recently predicted that BTC could go above $100,000 in the following months.

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5 ways derivatives could change the cryptocurrency sector in 2022

We‘ve all heard stories of billion-dollar future contracts liquidations being the cause of 25% intraday price crashes in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) but the truth is, the industry has been plagued by 100x leverage instruments since BitMEX launched its perpetual futures contract in May 2016.

The derivatives industry goes far beyond these retail-driven instruments, as institutional clients, mutual funds, market makers and professional traders can benefit from using the instrument‘s hedging capabilities.

In April 2020, Renaissance Technologies, a $130 billion hedge fund, received the green light to invest in Bitcoin futures markets using instruments listed at the CME. These trading mammoths are nothing like retail crypto traders, instead they focus on arbitrage and non-directional risk exposure.

The short-term correlation to traditional markets could rise

As an asset class, cryptocurrencies are becoming a proxy for global macroeconomic risks, regardless of whether crypto investors like it or not. That is not exclusive to Bitcoin because most commodities instruments suffered from this correlation in 2021. Even if Bitcoin price decouples on a monthly basis, this short-term risk-on and risk-off strategy heavily impacts Bitcoin‘s price.

Bitcoin/USD on FTX (blue, right) vs. U.S. 10-year yield (orange, left). Source: TradingView

Notice how Bitcoin‘s price has been steadily correlated with the United States 10 year Treasury Bill. Whenever investors are demanding higher returns to hold these fixed income instruments, there are additional demands for crypto exposure.

Derivatives are essential in this case because most mutual funds cannot invest directly in cryptocurrencies, so using a regulated futures contract, such as the CME Bitcoin futures, provides them with access to the market.

Miners will use longer-term contracts as a hedge

Cryptocurrency traders fail to realize that a short-term price fluctuation is not meaningful to their investment, from a miners‘ perspective. As miners become more professional, their need to constantly sell those coins is significantly reduced. This is precisely why derivatives instruments were created in the first place.

For instance, a miner could sell a quarterly futures contract expiring in three months, effectively locking in the price for the period. Then, regardless of the price movements, the miner knows their returns beforehand from this moment on.

A similar outcome can be achieved by trading Bitcoin options contracts. For example, a miner can sell a $40,000 March 2022 call option, which will be enough to compensate if the BTC price drops to $43,000, or 16% below the current $51,100. In exchange, the miner‘s profits above the $43,000 threshold are cut by 42%, so the options instrument acts as insurance.

Bitcoin‘s use as collateral for traditional finance will expand

Fidelity Digital Assets and crypto borrowing and exchange platform Nexo recently announced a partnership that offers crypto lending services for institutional investors. The joint venture will allow Bitcoin-backed cash loans that can t be used in traditional finance markets.

That movement will likely ease the pressure of companies like Tesla and Block (previously Square) to keep adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Using it as collateral for their day-to-day operations vastly increases their exposure limits for this asset class.

At the same time, even companies that are not seeking directional exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies might benefit from the industry‘s higher yields when compared to the traditional fixed income. Borrowing and lending are perfect use cases for institutional clients unwilling to have direct exposure to Bitcoin‘s volatility but, at the same time, seek higher returns on their assets.

Investors will use options markets to produce “fixed income”

Deribit derivatives exchange currently holds an 80% market share of the Bitcoin and Ether options markets. However, U.S. regulated options markets like the CME and FTX US Derivatives (previously LedgerX) will eventually gain traction.

Institutional traders dig these instruments because they offer the possibility to create semi “fixed income” strategies like covered calls, iron condors, bull call spread and others. In addition, by combining call (buy) and put (sell) options, traders can set an options trade with predefined max losses without the risk of being liquidated.

It‘s likely that central banks across the globe will worldwide keep interest rates near zero and below inflation levels. This means investors are forced to seek markets that offer higher returns, even if that means carrying some risk.

This is precisely why institutional investors will be entering crypto derivatives markets in 2022 and changing the industry as we currently know.

Reduced volatility is coming

As previously discussed, crypto derivatives are presently known for adding volatility whenever unexpected price swings happen. These forced liquidation orders reflect the futures instruments used for accessing excessive leverage, a situation typically caused by retail investors.

Yet, institutional investors will gain a broader representation in Bitcoin and Ether derivatives markets and, therefore, increase the bid and ask size for these instruments. Consequently, retail traders‘ $1 billion liquidations will have a smaller impact on the price.

In short, a growing number of professional players taking part in crypto derivatives will reduce the impact of extreme price fluctuations by absorbing that order flow. In time, this effect will be reflected in reduced volatility or, at least, avoid problems such as the March 2020 crash when BitMEX servers “went down” for 15 minutes.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.