Tag: Dxy

Don’t Count on Buying Bitcoin at $30,000, Says Crypto Analyst Justin Bennett – Here’s Why

by Dailyhodl

Closely followed crypto analyst Justin Bennett says that bargain-hunters hoping to get Bitcoin at $30,000 will likely end up disappointed.

Bennett tells his 97,000 Twitter followers that many people who watch his YouTube strategy sessions are saying that a $30,000 Bitcoin is imminent, but he doubts traders will get BTC that cheap.

“Every other comment on my YouTube channel is someone waiting/wishing for $30k $BTC.

It would be the first time in a long time that retail gets exactly what they want.

I think a move higher from $35k-$36k is more likely.”

The analyst says that the dollar index (DXY), which compares the USD to a basket of other fiat currencies, is playing a big role in the crypto markets. Usually, a strengthening DXY can signal weakness in many assets, while a struggling DXY often suggests higher prices.

According to Bennett, crypto traders may want to keep an eye on a trend reversal playing out in the DXY to signal a new bull run in the digital asset markets.

“DXY is still coming off. 95.50 is probably next.

A close below 94.60 is required to reverse the trend.”

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Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

The analyst recently said that contrary to what some say, he doesn’t think the crypto bull market is over. While some short-term volatility may be in play, Bennett says crypto is still due for another “melt-up” rally sometime this year.

“I don’t think the crypto bull market has ended.

Markets don’t crash when everyone expects them to, and right now, everyone expects it.

My base case is for one more melt-up this year, followed by a correction in either late 2022 or 2023…

So that means we could be in for more volatility in the short term if the stock market is going to strong-arm the Fed into remaining accommodative for longer.

But ultimately, I don’t think this crypto bull market is over just yet. It’ll be an interesting few months regardless.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Bitcoin Needs to Flip $38K-$40K Area, Gaining Sustainable Bullish Momentum

by Blockchain News

The planning of raising the interest rate proposed by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has dented Bitcoin’s upward move because the leading cryptocurrency ranges between the $33K and $38K zone.

Rekt Capital believes that the $38,000 to $40,000 zone should be flipped to support a more sustainable bullish momentum because it is a high resistance area. The crypto analyst explained:

“BTC reaches the red Range High resistance and rejects there. For BTC to move beyond $40000, it needs to flip the red Range High into support (just like in the green circles). Until then, BTC will simply remain inside the ~$28000-$38000 range.”

Image

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has been trading below its all-time high (ATH) price of $69,000 attained in November 2021. This has elicited the notion that the top cryptocurrency may be experiencing short-term pain points for long-term gain because hodlers remain unfazed about the current drawdown.  

The U.S. Dollar is gaining strength

The current scenario also paints a grim picture because the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been gaining strength. This is not a friendly situation for risk assets like Bitcoin because market analysis shows correlation inversely. On-chain analyst Dylan LeClair noted:

“DXY is pumping hard. A strong relative dollar is quite bearish for risk assets. Something to keep an eye on.”

Image

Source: TradingView

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz echoed these sentiments and stated:

“The dollar is the strongest vs. the euro since May 2020.”

High investor pessimism is bullish

Nevertheless, it seems it’s boiling down to a matter of when not if Bitcoin will be back to winning ways because investors’ are increasingly pessimistic about the crypto market, and this historically presents high buying pressure, which drives the price upwards. 

Market analyst under the pseudonym Macro Charts confirmed:

“Investor sentiment is at historic pessimism. Worse than March 2020 and December 2018. Even in 2008 – similar spikes led to violent Bear Market rallies. And lastly – when investors finally got this negative, the 2000-2002 Tech Crash was over.”

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Furthermore, the negative funding rates experienced in the BTC market are often followed by substantial short squeezes, which is a bullish sign. 

Image source: Shutterstock

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Bitcoin Needs to Flip $38K-$40K Area, Gaining Sustainable Bullish Momentum

by Blockchain News

The planning of raising the interest rate proposed by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has dented Bitcoin’s upward move because the leading cryptocurrency ranges between the $33K and $38K zone.

Rekt Capital believes that the $38,000 to $40,000 zone should be flipped to support a more sustainable bullish momentum because it is a high resistance area. The crypto analyst explained:

“BTC reaches the red Range High resistance and rejects there. For BTC to move beyond $40000, it needs to flip the red Range High into support (just like in the green circles). Until then, BTC will simply remain inside the ~$28000-$38000 range.”

Image

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has been trading below its all-time high (ATH) price of $69,000 attained in November 2021. This has elicited the notion that the top cryptocurrency may be experiencing short-term pain points for long-term gain because hodlers remain unfazed about the current drawdown.  

The U.S. Dollar is gaining strength

The current scenario also paints a grim picture because the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been gaining strength. This is not a friendly situation for risk assets like Bitcoin because market analysis shows correlation inversely. On-chain analyst Dylan LeClair noted:

“DXY is pumping hard. A strong relative dollar is quite bearish for risk assets. Something to keep an eye on.”

Image

Source: TradingView

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz echoed these sentiments and stated:

“The dollar is the strongest vs. the euro since May 2020.”

High investor pessimism is bullish

Nevertheless, it seems it’s boiling down to a matter of when not if Bitcoin will be back to winning ways because investors’ are increasingly pessimistic about the crypto market, and this historically presents high buying pressure, which drives the price upwards. 

Market analyst under the pseudonym Macro Charts confirmed:

“Investor sentiment is at historic pessimism. Worse than March 2020 and December 2018. Even in 2008 – similar spikes led to violent Bear Market rallies. And lastly – when investors finally got this negative, the 2000-2002 Tech Crash was over.”

Image

Furthermore, the negative funding rates experienced in the BTC market are often followed by substantial short squeezes, which is a bullish sign. 

Image source: Shutterstock

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Is The Dollar Index Making New 2021 Highs Dangerous For Bitcoin?

by NEWSBTC

The recent nerves in the stock market and macro world has caused the dollar to surges to a new 2021 high, just as Bitcoin continues to set new records. 

But is the greenback’s awakening a dangerous situation for cryptocurrencies, or is something else afoot?

BTC Barely Reacts As DXY Taps New 2021 High

Bitcoin price is in price discovery mode, after breaking its former high set earlier in the year. The cryptocurrency is pitched as a replacement for gold, and even the dollar – the current global reserve currency. 

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Cryptocurrencies, commodities, and everything else are priced in dollars as the most dominant currency acting as the base conversion rate. This means that Bitcoin price increases inversely to the dollar on the BTC/USD trading pair. 

Related Reading | 10 Bullish Monthly Bitcoin Price Charts To Start November

So it is unusual that Bitcoin continues to tap new highs all while the DXY Dollar Currency Index has reached the highest level of all of 2021. 

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dxy dollar currency index

The dollar currency index has reached a new 2021 high | Source: DXY on TradingView.com

The Dollar Strength Keeps Bitcoin Price At Bay 

The DXY is a weighted basket of forex currencies trading against the US dollar (USD). That basket includes major trade partners, the Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swiss franc (CHF), and the Swedish krona (SEK).

The highs in the DXY could be indicative of weakness in the currencies in the basket, or strength in the dollar itself. Bitcoin’s current performance or lack of strong reaction after new highs, could more so be due to strength in the dollar holding the cryptocurrency back. 

Not every touch of this trend line has been pleasant.  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Both assets making yearly highs is highly suspect, and could suggest a bigger reaction brewing in one or both sides of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin price also happens to be touching a trend line where such a reaction occurred in the past. 

Related Reading | Want To Learn Technical Analysis? Read The NewsBTC Trading Course

An uptrend is defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows – something characteristic of both assets in the short term. What is very different between the two, is the longer term trend. For Bitcoin, the primary trend has been up while for the dollar has been down. 

One of these assets is in an uptrend, the other is not | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

After this short term move completes, each asset should resume its previous trajectory, unless the trend is ready to change for a long time to come. 

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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US Dollar Tanking Can Kick Off Parabolic Phase for Bitcoin, Says Analyst Justin Bennett

by Dailyhodl

Crypto analyst and trader Justin Bennett says that weakness in the US dollar can spark a new parabolic rally for Bitcoin (BTC)

The popular analyst tells his 85,000 followers that he has his eye on the US dollar index (DXY), which compares the USD to a basket of other major fiat currencies. A weaker dollar generally suggests investors are favoring other assets over the world’s reserve currency.

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Bennett says the DXY is about to approach the bottom of an ascending channel. Should it fall through the bottom and begin a big downtrend, the analyst says the breakdown could be the catalyst to send crypto into a parabolic surge.

“What’s that? BTC is up as the DXY is tanking?

93.50 is critical. A close below that for the USD index kicks off the parabolic phase of the crypto bull market, in my opinion.”

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Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

Looking at Bitcoin in the short term, Bennett predicts BTC consolidating some more before finding a bottom around the $57,000 level. From there, the analyst suggests Bitcoin breaks out in early November and gets above $75,000 halfway through the month.

“BTC consolidation continues.

If the market can deviate from the September pullback (yellow) and breakout here, it’s back to $64,000. That would be the next big test for bulls.

Let’s see.”

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Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

When it comes to Ethereum, the crypto analyst says that the second biggest crypto by market cap is in the middle of a breakout that could see it clock as much as 362% worth of gains in the coming months from its current price of $4,324.

“ETH is breaking out again.

The weekly chart looks ready for $10,000 – $20,000 in the next few months.”

Image
Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Under-the-Radar Catalyst Could Secretly Spark Huge Long-Term Bitcoin Rally, Says Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen

by Dailyhodl

Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that one overlooked catalyst could ignite a big long-term rally for Bitcoin (BTC).

In a new strategy session, the analyst takes a look at the dollar index (DXY), which compares the US dollar against a basket of other major fiat currencies. Generally speaking, a weaker dollar can often imply higher prices in many assets.

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The analyst says one thing that could put extra bullish energy behind Bitcoin is the DXY beginning a macro trend downward. According to Cowen, the DXY is potentially on the edge of a bearish trend as it gets rejected from its 100-week simple moving average (SMA).

“Ideally speaking, in order to really be the best conditions for Bitcoin, we’d like to see this keep coming on down. This would be the best condition for Bitcoin and here’s the crazy thing when you talk about the US dollar currency index… Look at the actual macro range.” 

Cowen says DXY has been trading in a large descending channel for roughly 30 years. The crypto analyst points out that there is currently much more room at the bottom of the channel than the top, which could suggest more downside for the dollar and therefore higher prices for Bitcoin.

He says that despite a rising DXY during the majority of Bitcoin’s lifetime, BTC has still managed to maintain a long-term bullish structure. The analyst considers what could happen if the DXY eventually entered a more considerable downtrend.

“The dollar has more or less moved up during that time. It’s moved up, but there were a couple of key times when the dollar was moving down and that corresponded to Bitcoin bull markets.

Imagine what Bitcoin could do if the dollar ended up coming back down… I think that would be incredibly bullish for Bitcoin.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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All-time highs next? Bitcoin holds $62K as the Dollar index tumbles to 3-week lows

by Cointelegraph

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) could continue its slide in Q4, according to a classic technical setup known as a “rising wedge.” The greenback’s bearish prospects may boost Bitcoin’s (BTC) price to new all-time highs as it holds above $62,000.

DXY poised for another 1.75% drop

Rising wedges are bearish reversal patterns that begin wide at the bottom but contract as the price increases. As a result, the trading range narrows, which makes the rally unconvincing. That typically prompts the price to break below the wedge’s support line and later fall by as much as the maximum distance between the pattern’s trendlines.

The DXY has been forming a similar price structure since August. Moreover, the index’s decline this week had it break below the wedge’s support line, therefore triggering a bearish setup toward 92.416, down about 1.75% below the level of breakout (around 93.98).

DXY daily price chart featuring rising wedge setup. Source: TradingView

A week ago, DXY reached a one-year high of 94.563, reaping the benefits of stagflation fears and the Federal Reserve’s decision to unwind its $120-billion-a-month asset purchase program in November, followed by interest rate increases next year.

But the index dropped to a three-week low on Oct. 19, underscoring that money markets have priced in the Fed’s tapering decision. Instead, their focus has shifted toward policy normalization elsewhere, including the United Kingdom, where analysts have forecasted rate hikes worth 35 basis points by the end of this year.

Bitcoin rallies on ETF FOMO

Bitcoin price found support from the weaker dollar this week, in addition to optimism about the debut of the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to BTC futures on the New York Stock Exchange.

BTC/USD has rallied by over 40% month-to-date to hit a five-month high of $62,987 on Oct. 19. A minor correction ensued, but Bitcoin held $62,000 as its interim support against a weakening dollar sentiment. 

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring ascending channel pattern. Source: TradingView

Technically, Bitcoin reached the bullish exhaustion level of its prevailing ascending channel range. With its relative strength index (RSI) also overbought with a reading above 70 on the daily timeframe, the cryptocurrency could undergo an interim price correction with a short-term support target near $60,000.

But long term, multiple analysts anticipate Bitcoin’s price to hit $100,000.

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, said in a note on Oct. 18 that ETFs based on Bitcoin futures would together attract more than $50 billion in inflows in the first year, adding that BTC could conceivably rise to $168,000 in response.

Related: BTC price is up 50% since China ‘selflessly’ banned Bitcoin mining

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, noted that Bitcoin would become a six-figure asset by 2023, citing Metcalfe’s law, which measures a network’s value based on its growth rate.

“Other technology innovations, and even, like, a stock like Apple — not that I’m a security analyst — has gone through that same process, where its sales go up 38-fold over 10, 20 years, and its market value goes up by 900-fold,” Timmer

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Bitcoin price eyes $50K as the US Dollar retreats after hitting its one-year high

by Cointelegraph

Bitcoin (BTC) looks to reclaim $45,000 on Oct. 1 as the U.S dollar retreated lower after hitting its one-year high. Bitcoin’s tight inverse correlation with the greenback over the past month suggests that a weakening dollar could push BTC price even higher in the coming sessions. 

Bitcoin-dollar correlation on hourly chart. Source: TradingView.com

Dollar drops following labor market shock

In detail, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six foreign currencies, including euro and sterling, hit $94.50 Thursday for the first time since Sept. 28, 2020. But it retreated on news of rising U.S. jobless claims against the forecasts of a decline.

The labor data released Thursday showed that the number of jobless claims rose to 362,000 last week against 351,000 a week earlier and against the economists’ projection of 333,000. As a result, the number of reapplications got stuck around 2.8 million for five weeks in a row.

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For the markets, this could be the news that the Federal Reserve might delay tapering its $120 billion asset purchasing program from November to a later month, thus keeping interest rates lower and the dollar’s renewed strength temporary.

DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView.com

The index was trading at 94.263 at the time of this writing.

Technical outlook projects Bitcoin higher, dollar lower

Technicals also showed the greenback facing the prospect of a correction ahead. For example, independent market analyst TradingShot spotted the dollar index inside a Megaphone pattern, about to get topped out to pursue a correction in the coming sessions, as shown in the chart below.

US dollar index daily price chart featuring Megaphone technical setup. Source: TradingShot, TradingView.com

“Based on the 1D relative strength index (RSI), it appears that DXY is right at the top of the formation as [it was] on Aug 15, 2018,” TradingShot wrote.

“DXY is building up a strong pull-back to the bottom of the Megaphone.”

Meanwhile, a recent bout of selling in the Bitcoin market lately had it paint a Falling Wedge pattern. In detail, Falling Wedges appear when the price trends lower inside a channel comprising of two diverging, descending trendlines.

Traditional analysts see the Falling Wedge pattern as a bullish reversal indicator, noting that a break above its upper trendline moves the price higher by as much as the maximum distance between the Wedge’s trendlines.

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring falling wedge setup. Source: TradingView.com

The structure’s maximum height is roughly $10,000. As a result, the Bitcoin price can at least retest $50,000 should the Wedge breakout play out as intended.

A weaker dollar means stronger Bitcoin

On the other hand, the underwhelming jobs report could boost investors’ interim appetite for Bitcoin. 

Related: Bitcoin’s sharp fall from $50K linked to stronger US dollar, gold — Correlation shows

Vasja Zupan, president of Matrix Exchange, told Cointelegraph that the dollar’s weakness and devaluation against rising inflation would continue to make investors put their excess cash in crypto markets. He said:

“Bitcoin in its core proposition has an integrated hedge against inflation and therefore persistently higher inflation in the U.S. can only push it upwards. Therefore, in the long term, the dollar’s worth will continue to be lesser than Bitcoin.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.