Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX) and Two More Altcoins Will Survive ‘Crypto Winter’: Morgan Creek’s Mark Yusko: Report

Morgan Creek Capital Management’s Mark Yusko is naming four crypto assets that he believes could withstand a market downturn relatively well.

According to a Business Insider report, Yusko says that the native tokens of smart contract-enabled blockchains Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), Cosmos (ATOM) and Polkadot (DOT) are among the crypto assets capable of surviving a bear market.

In the case of Solana, the Morgan Creek founder says that the seventh-largest blockchain by market cap is a “great protocol.”

“There’s probably still some potential volatility in the price ahead. But long term, I think it’s a great protocol.”

According to Yusko, cryptocurrencies will be in a bear market for the next 12 months or so before the next Bitcoin halving event kicks off a bull cycle.

“What you’re seeing is crypto is definitely in a bear cycle. It’s going to struggle for the next 12-ish months then we’ll go back to the next bull cycle triggered by the next halving event.”

The last Bitcoin (BTC) halving event occurred in May of 2020. The next one is expected to take place during the first six months of 2024.

Yusko also says that Bitcoin is not correlated to stocks though it might appear to be so on shorter time frames. For instance, Bitcoin is down 7.77% year-to-date compared to the tech-heavy Nasdaq which has fallen 9.89% year-to-date in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s intentions to hike rates.

“You can’t calculate correlation over the short-term. Just the math doesn’t work. And so yes, it is true that in times of stress, ‘all correlations go to one.’

Zoom out, the correlation of Bitcoin to equities is 0.15 for long periods of time. Some weeks, some months, it goes higher, but over the long term, it’s still 0.15 and to bonds, it’s 0.”

Correlation can take a value of between -1 and 1. The higher the value, the stronger the correlation, and the lower the value, the weaker the correlation.

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Here’s What’s Ahead for Ethereum (ETH), Polkadot (DOT) and Terra (LUNA), According to Top Crypto Strategist

A popular crypto strategist and trader is outlining what’s next for Ethereum (ETH) and its rivals Polkadot (DOT) and Terra (LUNA) as altcoins flash signs of life.

Pseudonymous analyst Altcoin Sherpa tells his 167,100 Twitter followers that while leading smart contract platform Ethereum looks bullish on the lower timeframes, he warns that a correction is in sight as ETH is now trading at a key resistance area.

“This isn’t generally how bottoms are formed; I think a return to the lows is likely (eventually). With that said, price has still maintained a bullish market structure on the 4h with [higher highs and higher lows]. Approaching a scary area in the $3,000s. Be careful.”

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

Next up is interoperable blockchain Polkadot. According to the crypto analyst, DOT looks ready to ignite a 27% rally from its current price of $21.90 to his target at $28.

“I think that a short-term bottom may be forming; to be determined if this is the long-term bottom. Price will need to consolidate here for a while before I think that happens. Possible lower high to mid $20s near the 200-day exponential moving average and then lower.”

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

Another coin on the trader’s list is decentralized finance (DeFi) payment network Terra. Altcoin Sherpa says LUNA may be carving a bottom between $45 and $53 as it trades in a high-volume node (HVN) region.

“I still think the bottom is in for the short term. Lots of volume and a HVN on volume profile is around this area. Expecting this to chop and then go up.”

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

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Polkadot (DOT) Consumes the Least Amount of Electricity Compared to Other Top Chains, According to New Research

New data reveals that Ethereum challenger Polkadot (DOT) consumes the least amount of electricity out of any leading blockchain.

According to new research conducted by the Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute (CCRI), the interoperable blockchain platform uses less power than other popular crypto assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

The institute found that DOT consumes just 6.6 times the electricity the average US household uses in a year, making it the least power-draining digital asset among the top chains.

For comparison, ETH uses 1.6 million times what the average US household uses in electricity while that number jumps up to 8.6 million for BTC, according to the CCRI.

“An average US household consumes about 10,600 kWh per year and therefore, the least electricity consuming network Polkadot consumes about 6.6 times the electricity and the most electricity consuming network Solana about 200 times the electricity (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2021)…

Bitcoin consumes much more electricity than any Proof of Stake system due to its Proof of Work consensus mechanism, resulting in the deployment of energy-intensive hardware.”

Source: Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute

The data shows leading smart contract platform ETH is right behind BTC in terms of power usage, followed by other layer-1 protocols SOL, Cardano (ADA), Algorand (ALGO), Avalanche (AVAX) and Tezos (XTZ).

“Algorand consumes up to the factor of 9 compared to other cryptocurrencies such as Cardano and Polkadot. Tezos is in between these two groups. It consumes up to factor 5 of the low-energy blockchains, but only about 50% of Algorand’s consumption.”

Polkadot is exchanging hands at $21.45 at time of writing, an 23% increase from its seven-day high of $17.42.

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This Week in Coins: Ethereum, Solana, Polkadot Lead Major Crypto Price Recovery

This week in coins
This week in coins. Illustration by Mitchell Preffer for Decrypt.

After a very rocky start to the year, crypto price watchers finally saw the start of a promising recovery last week. This week, prices continued to rise. In fact, today’s growth alone has been particularly noteworthy: The global crypto market cap climbed 10% in just 24 hours, to hit $1.9 trillion.

The two market leaders posted noteworthy gains this week. Friday, Bitcoin recrossed the $40k threshold, and it sustained that growth well into Saturday. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency has grown 8.8% over the last week and currently trades at $41,460.

But Bitcoin’s growth has been overshadowed by Ethereum, which grew 16% this week and trades at $3,015. 

In fact, all top 30 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) are up this week, except for Fantom, which lost 0.6% and trades at $2.16.

The biggest successes of the week are: Solana, up 17% to $115; Polkadot, up 15% to $21.60; Avalanche, up 10% to $78.36; Litecoin, up 10% to $121.95; Near Protocol, up 18% to $13.29; and Decentraland, up a whopping 26% to $2.99. 

News of the week

On Monday, the International Monetary Fund’s financial counselor, Tobias Adrian, warned of creeping ‘cryptoization,’ his term for cryptocurrency crossing over into the financial mainstream. The senior official said “capital flow management measures will need to be fine-tuned.”

Adrian highlighted some of the risks we’re facing: “Crypto is being used to take money out of countries that are regarded as unstable [by some external investors].” 

Adrian also noted that Bitcoin is now showing a strong correlation with traditional financial markets: “The correlation between crypto and equity markets has been trending up strongly. Crypto is now very closely tied to what is happening in equities. We can’t just dismiss it.”

On the same day, JP Morgan sent a note to investors warning that Bitcoin is still too volatile for mass institutional adoption. Meanwhile, Ethereum, which has enjoyed second place in the market cap table thanks largely to the NFT and DeFi capabilities of its smart contract-enabled blockchain, is facing pressure from competitors like Solana and Terra.

On Tuesday, Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a 30% tax on crypto income with no exemptions or deductions. Investors filing their tax returns won’t be able to show losses due to price crashes or theft in order to offset the tax on their profits. 

At the same time, Sitharaman said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will introduce a digital rupee in the next financial year. The minister confirmed that this will be a blockchain-based CBDC, but gave no further details. 

The British government updated the rules on DeFi and staking on Wednesday. Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) confessed that “it is not possible to set out all the circumstances in which a lender/liquidity provider earns a return from their activities and the nature of that return,” and offered crypto investors four “guiding principles” to help them fill out their tax returns. (Across the pond, a U.S. lawsuit may have implications for how the Internal Revenue Service taxes staking rewards.)

Finally, Meta (formerly Facebook) had a tough week. Shares plummeted 21% in pre-market trading on Thursday. CEO Mark Zuckerberg blamed a fall in projected first-quarter earnings on “increasing competition,” particularly from TikTok, but the billions Meta has thus far spent in developing its metaverse pivot could also be a major factor in the expected shortfall. 

Meta was also hit by allegations of verbal abuse and sexual harassment during a tech demo for the company’s virtual reality metaverse. Add to that the fact that the company’s “borderless global currency” Diem is now dead in the water: Meta officially announced it was selling off all of the project’s assets and intellectual property to Californian crypto-friendly bank Silvergate.

Still, in spite of, or perhaps because of Meta’s bad news, Metaverse-related tokens are surging right now.

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Macro Guru Raoul Pal Says Investors Bullish on Terra (LUNA) and Polkadot (DOT), Predicts Strong Rally for Ethereum

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says that Ethereum is set to rally and that two altcoins popular among investors may be ready to compete with ETH.

In a new interview with Altcoin Daily, the macro guru says that a number of influential people whom he considers to be important investors are bullish on decentralized finance (DeFi) payment network Terra (LUNA) and interoperable blockchain Polkadot (DOT).

“You notice that there’s a huge amount of investors who are very bullish on Terra still including Remi (Tetot) who works for me, who was a co-founder of Real Vision and works for Global Macro Investor. He’s a big investor in that space, loves it and a lot of people are. 

A lot of people that I think are very important investors in the space are very bullish on Polkadot still, and they have been for a long time. It’s never really done what everybody expected it to do, but again you’ve got to keep your mind open to these things or it could be something else. Something else comes out of the blue, finds a different use case and before you know it, so it’s really hard to trade this kind of stuff.”

Pal also shares his 2022 forecast for Ethereum. He says the leading smart contract platform is still the greatest trade in the world. 

“I still think we actually got a strong run to come. I think this kind of year-long sideways correction that we’ve essentially had is just a springboard to further gains as more adoption rolls out, more use cases roll out, etcetera…

I still think, risk-adjusted, ETH will do extremely well over time. The reason why it’s expensive to use is because it’s so damn popular. It’s like a chain of prestige now for things to be built on because it is the more decentralized of all of the other layer-1s. So it makes sense to me, I think, with the change towards ETH 2.0 coming as well. I think that narrative will build over time as well, so I still think the upside in ETH is massive. In terms of market cap, where could it go, it could still go another 10x from here in terms of market cap alone. Over what period of time, who knows.”

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Here’s What’s Next for Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Terra (LUNA) and Four Additional Altcoins, According to Top Crypto Trader

A closely followed crypto strategist is mapping out what’s ahead for Ethereum-competitors Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Terra (LUNA) and four other altcoins.

Pseudonymous analyst Altcoin Sherpa tells his 165,700 Twitter followers that he’s looking at where smart contract platform Cardano’s price could potentially bounce.

“ADA: since everyone’s exposed to just altcoins, I’m going to be doing a bunch of alt charts where I think decent support is. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be bounces before this time but these are meaningful levels of support where prices could eventually go.

support: $0.40.”

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

The trader says that the $1.00 level for Cardano could hold, but if it fails, he sees ADA going down to $0.40.

Altcoin Sherpa is also looking at interoperable blockchain Polkadot (DOT), which he says could find support at $15.

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

Next up is decentralized parallel blockchain network Cosmos (ATOM), which Altcoin Sherpa believes can go as low as $20.

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

Another altcoin on the trader’s list is decentralized finance (DeFi) payment network Terra. According to Altcoin Sherpa, the area between $30 to $40 can serve as a key support level for LUNA.

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

Next is meme crypto asset Dogecoin (DOGE), which Altcoin Sherpa believes may ignite a sell-off event if it dips below support at $0.128.

“Support: $0.05.”

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

Altcoin Sherpa is also keeping an eye on play-to-earn blockchain-based game Axie Infinity (AXS). According to the crypto trader, he sees AXS holding support around $35.

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

The last coin on the trader’s radar is decentralized oracle network Chainlink (LINK). According to the crypto strategist, LINK could potentially see a reversal at $12.

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/Twitter

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Institutions Buying the Dip? Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL) and Polkadot (DOT) See Minor Inflows As Markets Correct: CoinShares

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a week of institutional investment inflows, breaking a five-week outflow trend, according to digital asset manager Coinshares.

CoinShares says Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL) and Polkadot (DOT) also enjoyed inflows on the week, suggesting that investors are anticipating a possible market turnaround on the horizon.

“The inflows came later in the week during a period of significant price weakness, suggesting investors, at current price levels, are seeing this as a buying opportunity.”

Among major digital assets, Ethereum (ETH) was the only crypto to suffer outflows last week, continuing a downward seven-week trend for the leading smart contract platform.

“Ethereum continues to see outflows, with US$16m of outflows last week. The current 7 week run of outflows now total US$245m… highlighting much of the recent bearishness amongst investors has been focussed on Ethereum rather than Bitcoin.”

While Ethereum lost $16 million in outflows last week, Ethereum competitors Solana, Cardano, and Polkadot all enjoyed minor inflows on the week at $1.5 million, $1.5 million, and $1.4 million respectively.

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Source: CoinShares

Negative crypto sentiment showed signs of cooling in last week’s CoinShares analysis, and that trend appears to be continuing among institutional investors with this week’s minor inflows.

Bitcoin enjoyed inflows last week of $14 million after losing nearly $320 million in outflows over the last five weeks. The minor inflows have not driven BTC’s price up, however, as the leading crypto by market cap is trading for $35,471 at time of writing, down 20% over the last seven days.

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Crypto Venture Capitalist Says He’s Bullish on Several Ethereum Rivals Amid Shift in Crypto Market Dynamics: Report

A crypto investor from Crypto Valley Venture Capital is reportedly keeping a close watch on a number of Ethereum (ETH) rivals showing potential for growth.

In a new Business Insider report, Olaf Hannemann, the founder and chief information officer of the blockchain-focused venture capital firm, says that beyond Bitcoin (BTC), there are a number of interesting projects in the arena of smart contract platforms as led by Ethereum.

“[A] fundamental view we have is favoring the protocols where people truly develop projects. Our view on Ethereum is generally positive. It’s still the go-to for many projects and I think there’s positive momentum still.”

In addition to Ethereum, the venture capitalist says he likes several of ETH’s competitors.

“There’s a lot of capital in Ethereum, but there is also Tezos and Cardano. We like Solana and Polkadot too.

There are projects looking at stacks, which offer applications built on top of Bitcoin. Avalanche is one to watch too and more recently we are looking at NEAR protocol.”

Tezos (XTZ) is a platform that enables developers to build smart contracts and decentralized applications for products and services. while Cardano (ADA) is a scalable decentralized blockchain platform.

Solana (SOL) is a layer-1 smart contract platform like Avalanche (AVAX) and Polkadot (DOT) is a cross-chain interoperability protocol. Meanwhile, Near Protocol (NEAR) is a developer-focused blockchain designed for scalability and stability

Looking at the broader future of cryptocurrencies, Hannemann foresees more mainstream money entering the markets but that won’t necessarily eliminate the volatility that has been a hallmark of the digital asset space since its inception a decade ago.

“There’s more and more established capital also coming in. It has different market dynamics to traditional established markets. Something which is both a challenge and an opportunity is that you are able to trade at extremely high-leverage positions. That will bring with it a very volatile market in the short term.”

When it comes to the ultimate winners and losers after the crypto space reaches maturity, the venture capitalist investor says,

“Our investment thesis is essentially that we believe that blockchain technology is a catalyst for a lot of other mega-trend technologies that are happening right now, like machine learning, internet of things, personalized healthcare and longevity.

I think long long-term, the jury is still out on whether will there be one or two endgame winner protocols, or whether it will be many different blockchains for different industries.

You get evangelists who truly believe one blockchain is better than the other but you know what, I may have the better protocol, but if I can’t convince startups to build on on my protocol, I’m going to lose out medium term.”

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Crypto Analyst Justin Bennett Says Polkadot (DOT) Breakout Imminent – Here Are His Targets

Popular crypto strategist and trader Justin Bennett says a strong breakout is on the horizon for interoperability blockchain Polkadot (DOT).

In a new strategy session, Bennett says that Polkadot’s price action is coiling as it trades within a bullish continuation pattern.

“The fact that this is a falling wedge, which is inherently a bullish pattern, and we also have the market in a macro uptrend, I do have reason to believe that this is more likely to break higher than lower.”

According to Bennett, he sees Polkadot ending its short-term downtrend and breaking out of the falling wedge by the second week of February.

Looking at potential targets for Polkadot, the crypto analyst believes that DOT can potentially ignite a 78% surge once it takes out the diagonal resistance of the wedge.

“Is the market going to break higher? I personally think that there’s a very good chance it will, and if it does, the area I’m going to be targeting is up here. The first ones would be $32, $38 and $45.”

At time of writing, Polkadot is trading at $25.22.

While Bennett is long-term bullish on DOT, he sees the crypto asset significantly correcting in the coming days before rallying and hitting his targets.

“Don’t be surprised if we get something like this, where DOT breaks out of its terminal pattern to the upside, retests support [$20] maybe, breaks out from here and then starts to move higher up toward $32, $38 and $45 and eventually later this year we get a move up here into this resistance area [$65].” 

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‘Hive Mind’ Algorithm Shows Crypto Traders Bullish on Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX) and Polygon (MATIC)

An autonomous bot that’s been outperforming the cryptocurrency market by using data from weekly surveys of traders indicates that several altcoins are gobbling up market share from crypto titans Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

The Real Vision Bot was co-developed by quant analyst and hedge fund CEO Mortiz Seibert as a way to obtain signals and gauge trader sentiment from fans of the financial content platform Real Vision.

Real Vision says the bot has had an “astonishing” record of outperforming the aggregated bucket of top 20 cryptos by more than 20% – simply by surveying the preferences of traders.

In a new tweet, Real Vision says that while actual exchanges saw an increase in Polkadot (DOT) holdings, the algorithm is partial to smart contract platform Avalanche (AVAX) and layer-2 scaling solution Polygon (MATIC).

“Latest weights of the @RealVision Exchange crypto portfolio. It’s getting crowded in the Exchange portfolio.

Ethereum, Bitcoin and Terra have been reduced in weight.

Polkadot, AVAX and Polygon were increased. The Bot prefers/likes the last two.”

Source: RealVision/Twitter

The latest survey results show that while traders still prefer a portfolio with a plurality of Ethereum, that 19.1% allocation is down 2.36% from last week.

Bitcoin is fifth on the list, down 3.36% to account for 10.3% of portfolio weight.

Surging ahead in the bot’s portfolio was Polygon, which is up 4.59% to a total of 15.9%. Avalanche was ranked seventh at 9.87% of bot holdings, and overall it increased by +4.41% over the past week.

Polkadot surged by 5.32% in the real-world crypto exchange holdings to 9.81% despite little interest from the bot’s algorithm.

Decentralized finance protocol Terra (LUNA) is in third place with 14.7% of portfolio weight, a weekly drop 3.41%, followed by enterprise-grade blockchain platform Fantom (FTM) which saw a 2.29% increase to 10.8% of holdings.

Rounding out the top-9 crypto assets were decentralized network Cosmos (ATOM) in sixth, virtual gaming world Decentraland (MANA) in eighth, followed by decentralized oracle network Chainlink (LINK).

Source: RealVision/Twitter

Participants in the Real Vision Bot’s surveys don’t necessarily have to own the crypto in question in order to cast a vote for it. In an interview with Real Vision, the bot’s co-creator Moritz Seibert describes it as a “hive mind” that is able to beat other entities in the crypto ecosystem.

“This bot is really fascinating because it started as a research project, where we linked it up with a Real Vision Exchange to run paper portfolios based on weekly surveys, where what we wanted to find out is if there’s a Real Vision hive mind that can beat the markets and that can also beat the interviewees, the professionals that are interviewed on the Real Vision platform.

And so, as it turns out, there is a hive mind crypto portfolio that’s far ahead of the bot run crypto portfolio and the experts and the market.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 25,771.91 3.82%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,814.47 3.02%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 87.38 6.24%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 109.42 3.91%