Photo by: STRF/STAR MAX/IPx 2021 2/22/21 Bitcoin tumbles after Elon Musk hints that prices are … [+]excessive.
STRF/STAR MAX/IPx
With the bitcoin price falling below $50,000 following an announcement that Tesla TSLA will no longer accept the cryptocurrency for vehicle purchases, one group that is traditionally seen as bullish on the asset is reaping rewards. The latest CME Group CME exchange data shows asset managers – a particular group of institutional investors including pension funds – are using CME bitcoin futures to place a growing size of “short” positions, which bet on a decline in bitcoin price. The value of these short contracts has grown from $0 in early January to $380 million as of last week, the highest level on record for this group.
Traditionally a dominant group at the CME in other markets, these investors have a modest (8%) but growing share of all open interest in bitcoin. Up until February, these investors were “long” the asset as it rose in price to $50,000. However, their behavior then shifted with longs decreasing and shorts beginning to steadily grow. To give some context on what could happen next, bitcoin price stabilizes at a lower level and asset managers would then adopt a neutral position closing shorts and/or would assume a new bitcoin bullish position.
For now the mood of asset managers is pragmatic and opportunistic. If CME market participants anticipated a rise in Bitcoin prices, it would be very likely that both open interest and trading activity would be increasing. The opposite has been happening however, with CME daily volume and OI down from the start of the year.
Change in CME BTC Futures open interest and bitcoin price for all of 2020 and 2021 year to date
Forbes Media
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Finally, this trend appears to fit into a larger pattern of waning broader institutional interest as the price of bitcoin has stagnated in recent weeks. Paying close attention to these trends can provide early barometers of bitcoin price sentiment for institutional traders. Far from signaling a lack of interest in bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, a Forbes analysis of institutional trading behavior suggests that this latest asset manager short selling is a tactical move of a temporary duration until buying interest is again broad and strong from new market participants.
Data analyzing in exchange stock market: the candle chars on display. Analytics price change cryptocurrency BTC to USD (Bitcoin / US Dollar), the most popular pair in the world. Big Bitcoin logo.
getty
Although the price of bitcoin, ether, and dozens of other crypto assets have surged this year, many investors remain on the sidelines due to a multitude of reasons, such as educational or technological hurdles, as well as friction when it comes to actually setting up a brokerage account.
Fortunately, there are many stocks and traditional securities available TODAY that allow investors to get exposure to crypto without having to directly purchase the underlying assets.
To explore these assets and companies further, Forbes hosted a webinar with with three leaders in the space:
Merrick Okamoto, Executive Chairman of Marathon Digital Holdings
Steve Ehrlich, Chief Executive Officer of Voyager Digital Ltd
Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, Director of Investor Relations and Business Development at Grayscale Investments.
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See full video below:
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I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently the Social Media/Copy Lead at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States. Before
…
I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently the Social Media/Copy Lead at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States. Before joining Kraken I served as Chief Operating Officer at the Wall Street Blockchain Alliance, a non-profit trade association dedicated to the comprehensive adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies across global markets. Before joining the WSBA, I was the Lead Associate within the Emerging Technologies practice at Spitzberg Partners, a boutique corporate advisory firm that advises leading firms across industries on blockchain technology. Previously I was Vice President/Lead Strategy Analyst at Citi FinTech, where I drove strategic and new business development initiatives for Citigroup’s Global Retail and Consumer Bank business across 20 countries. I also served five years as a Senior Intelligence Analyst at Booz Allen Hamilton supporting the U.S. Department of Defense. I have a B.S. in Business Administration from the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University and a M.A. in International Affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. Additionally, I am a Certified Information Privacy Professional (United States, Canada, and the European Union) and a Certified Information Privacy Technologist at the International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP).
For most U.S. investors the need for tokenizing stocks like Apple AAPL or Amazon AMZN , whose shares are already tradeable in fractional amounts at most brokerage firms, seems puzzling. However, outside of the United States, it is a different story. In many countries, investors don’t have easy access to U.S. securities markets or, if they do, it is a costly proposition. I spoke to FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who described tokenization as a growing trend. “Accessing equities markets is spotty country by country,” he says. “You don’t see 24/7 access to most stock markets but FTX’s markets are always open.”
It gets technical very quickly, however, and a key point is to understand not all tokenized stocks are created equal.
One of the most important points is that, depending on the exchange, tokenized stocks may or may not have collateral behind it. The tokenized stock without collateral is a synthetic security that the crypto exchange or intermediary writes into existence on a blockchain somewhere. This matters because if that ‘somewhere’ is in Minsk, Ukraine or some remote tiny island, investors may not have much recourse if the service provider hurts investors. Crypto exchanges offering tokenized stocks without collateral include Currency.com.
Today, we dig deeper into the offering of crypto exchanges with collateralized stock tokens, such as: FTX, Binance, and Bittrex Global.
There are other important nuances for would-be investors, such as whether or not owning a tokenized stock gives you ownership rights to get paid stock dividends and be able to vote as a shareholder. For example, Binance states on its website that “holding stock tokens does not transfer any shareholder rights to you” whereas FTX and Bittrex report being committed on a ‘best-efforts’ basis to see tokenized stock holders receive stock dividends.
So, what exactly does one own when clicking ‘buy’ for these novel tokenized stocks?
The short answer is you own a collateralized digital derivative product that can be traded much like the spot instrument, i.e. the share or ‘real thing’. A derivative security references its value from a separate security that trades in the cash market. Both the derivative and spot instrument can generate profits and losses in lockstep in someone’s trading account.
The Demise of CFDs?
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One way to understand the significance of collateralized asset issuance is to compare it to what it might be replacing. One of the potentially disruptive qualities of tokenized securities is that they could steamroll the large retail FX and Contract for Difference (CFD) industry, which is well established and generally offers tradable instruments that are not saved to a blockchain. Broadly speaking, CFD brokers also lag crypto exchanges in terms of crypto sophistication and product depth. For example, CFD’s – which are not available in the United States – have long let users trade a synthetic instrument mimicking Apple or Microsoft MSFT stock prices, but are, at heart, IOUs issued by a retail broker, not traded on exchange, and non-transferable. The adaptability of well capitalized CFD retail brokerage firms such as IG, CMC Markets, and Plus500 should not be underestimated, however.
Tokenized Stocks Trading Conditions
The price of a tokenized stock is not necessarily the same price seen for the actual stock in a regulated exchange. It is higher or lower depending on a number of factors, such as whether or not the stock market is open. Another factor is latency, which exists due to potential internet communication delays depending where the trader is located, or the actual liquidity at the crypto exchange for that security.
While on the surface a tokenized Apple stock is traded in multiple exchanges, you should know that any tokenized stocks can only be traded in one crypto exchange. For example, AAPL/USD is the ticker name in the FTX platform, while Binance uses the AAPL/BUSD ticker, and Currency.com the AAPL.cx ticker. Try to transfer your AAPL/BUSD or AAPL.cx securities to FTX and you will be informed that the stock token is not portable to other crypto exchanges or to your local brokerage firm where you have your securities portfolio. “It would be really powerful to be able to freely move tokenized stocks on the blockchain, but as of now FTX and [German financial services firm] CM-Equity do not support that. They remain on FTX, a tied agent to CM-Equity,” indicated FTX’s Bankman-Fried.
Best case scenario, investors trade with ease the tokenized stock at any time without a glitch. Worst case scenario, the value of the investment resides digitally at a firm that may not offer the service tomorrow or could be at risk if the other intermediary firms went out of business. In the U.S. stock owners are protected from the risk that a brokerage firm is put out of business by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), a non-profit run by U.S.-based registered broker-dealers. To our knowledge, no such protection exists in the world of tokenized stocks, in part because this type of security is so new.
The number of crypto exchanges offering tokenized stocks is relatively small still, but appears to be growing rapidly now that they have been adopted by select market leaders. FTX offers 36 tokenized stocks plus tokenized indices and futures contracts, and Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume and Web visitors, just launched its service last month with simply four tokenized stocks: Apple, Coinbase, Microstrategy MSTR , and Microsoft. Currency.com offers hundreds of non-collateralized tokenized stocks. Publicly-listed crypto exchange Coinbase does not offer tokenized stocks but, ironically, its peer FTX offers a tokenized stock of Coinbase (ticker: COIN/USD).
Collateralization 101: A Tokenized Stock Is Born
The collateralized tokenized stocks hitting the market are mainly originating from two European firms working together in different capacities to serve various crypto exchanges. CM-Equity AG describes itself as a “fully-licensed capital markets infrastructure platform” and acts as brokers to the crypto exchanges. A separate company in this financial engineering, Swiss-based Digital Assets AG describes itself as a “boutique firm focused on the issuance of tokenized financial products.”
To give an example of how this works, when an FTX customer wants to invest in Coinbase he or she buys a one COIN/USD token, this sets off instructions – steps 1 through 7 – until the newly created token appears in the client’s exchange account.
FTX TOKENIZED STOCK GENERATION PROCESS
Diagram of tokenized stock issuance
Forbes
The client owns the COIN token issued by Digital Assets AG and custodied by FTX. FTX specifies in its website that, at the users’ discretion, CM-Equity can honor a redemption of the spot token for the actual share of stock. By contrast, Binance, states that stock tokens are “generally redeemable from the issuer” and that a special redemption fee may apply and that the redemption is “generally settled in stablecoin”.
What is Counterparty Risk in Owning This Type of Security?
Counterparty risk is the non-compliance risk in a transaction, such as between an investor and the brokerage firm or exchange holding a security on behalf of the investor. It doesn’t occur often, but at times brokerage firms and crypto exchanges may cease doing business. The tokenized stocks a client may hold could be unreachable or unusable outside of the issuing party, even if written to a blockchain. The fail point from a cash stockholder perspective is limited to the non-invested cash a brokerage firm holds. In the United States there are transfer agents that keep track of who owns what, and there are central securities depositories that custody shares for investors.
For the tokenized stock, there are some separation of duties by the exchange, the holder of the shares, and the company minting the new token. Investors should also evaluate which crypto exchanges have a better track record keeping servers up and client money intact. Uptrends.com and Dotcom-monitor.com are two sites offering free trials to measure uptime and reliability of websites, including those of crypto exchanges.
Last week, German regulator BaFin served Binance a warning that its German unit Binance Germany risked being fined for offering its digital tokens without publishing an investor prospectus. A Binance spokesperson indicated that the firm is “committed to following local regulator requirements wherever we operate,” and is currently working with regulators to address their questions. When Forbes asked FTX about its experience with German regulators, its CEO Sam Bankman-Fried stated that “we’ve never received a reprimand from global regulators.”
One of the reasons why prospectuses filed with regulatory authorities like the SEC play an important role for investors has a lot to do with risks – especially for new investment vehicles like tokenized stocks. There are numerous risks associated with stock tokens, including not being able to redeem the digital token, significant adverse price slippage for trading during illiquid hours, or not being able to receive a fair treatment related to corporate actions.
There’s several ways to keep inexperienced traders from owning tokenized stocks. For example, having exchanges enforce a suitability test or raising the minimum investable amount for riskier products. FTX and its brokerage partner CM-Equity currently require any interested client to complete a full identity verification, a review of relevant terminology, and a suitability questionnaire that gauges a person’s proficiency with this type of financial products.
FILE – In this April 4, 2017 file photo, Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, discusses … [+]his Annual Letter to Shareholders at the Chamber of Commerce of the United States of America in Washington. President Donald Trump is scoffing at a claim by Dimon that he could beat Trump in an election. Trump tweeted Thursday that Dimon is a “nervous mess.” (Paul Morigi/AP Images for JPMorgan Chase)
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Yesterday JPMorgan JPM CEO Jamie Dimon found himself in the awkward position of having to admit that his clients are clamoring for bitcoin while in the same breath saying he was not a bitcoin supporter.“They want to be able to put it in statements, they want to buy and sell it, if we can help them do those things very very safely with all the proper disclosures,” said Dimon, speaking at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council. “Then that’s their job to decide what they’re going to do with their money.”
The reality is that for major banks to replicate what they have done in cash and derivatives markets they need scale which they woefully lack in crypto markets. Thanks to the steady crypto price increases the cost for banks to join the burgeoning cryptocurrency industry is now in the tens of billions of dollars.
For any bank to command a Bitcoin stash similar to that of New York-based Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), it would require an investment of more than $33 billion. If New York-based venture capital firm Pantera Capital’s bitcoin forecast of $110,000 by the end of this year proves as accurate as past forecasts then that bank investment could soon rise to more than $70 billion. And that’s just for Bitcoin; banks presumably would want to make markets in multiple major cryptocurrencies.
Cost to acquire 650,000 BTC at various market rates
Forbes
As the global leader in US dollar trading, JPMorgan stands to lose prominence if a different set of currencies than the ones it dominates become popular. Even so, there’s little doubt that JPMorgan has the means to acquire a large name in the crypto world if and when it sees strategic value in doing so. Dimon’s reluctance to do much more than dabble in bitcoin is actually an opportunity for other banks.
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Some of the other Wall Street banks in the top-5 by investment banking fees earned (Goldman Sachs GS , Morgan Stanley MS , Citibank, and Bank of America BAC ) are giving clients access to crypto fund investing or are launching a trading desk. Other banks such as Bank of New York, State Street, and BNP Paribas are betting on crypto custody. The announcement last week that Boston-based custodian giant State Street is building the trading technology behind Pure Digital, a new multi-dealer trading platform, is a subtle but important cue that an unknown number of banks are finally taking one of the necessary steps to operate in crypto markets at scale.
Why do banks need a multi-dealer platform to trade crypto?
A multi-dealer platform (MDP) is a marketplace that lets multiple liquidity providers compete to give a ‘price taker’ the best price for the quantity requested. The simple reason banks might want such a platform is that they live in a hyper-regulated world where the usual palatable way to invest in something new is to share the risk with other banks. Another reason is that major market makers trade with each other on a bilateral basis and, like other institutional clients, are also accustomed to using MDPs for price discovery.
Why invest in a newcomer instead of trading at a regulated exchange?
The latest CME data shows that dealers banks held open bitcoin futures positions equivalent to 4,000 BTC – or 5% of all open interest outstanding compared to 45% held by hedge funds. Five percent is low compared to the 37% of euro-dollar futures that banks hold at the CME. The difference for this low bank participation in crypto futures is that asset managers – think pension funds – consume large quantities of euro-dollar futures but they don’t (yet) consume crypto derivatives the same way. Until that client-based demand ramps up, banks will continue to have a limited presence at the CME.
The reason is simple.
Banks don’t earn as much transactional revenue by trading at the CME as they do by trading with clients directly over-the-counter (OTC). Thus, MDPs such as Pure Digital or LMAX Exchange, another regulated marketplace based in London, are some of the OTC venues that banks can use to satisfy clients who insist on getting multiple quotes before placing a larger trade.
One of the reasons why banks have survived as long as they have is because they adapt. They are typically not the first to develop cool technology, but as exemplified by Dimon’s candid remarks, banks know how to talk to clients and act pragmatically, always following the money.
Facebook’s Diem, formerly Libra, has dramatically reduced its ambitions from creating a single global stablecoin backed by a basket of traditional currencies to releasing a set of digital tokens collateralized by each individual currency. However, in facilitating this strategic shift, it has created new opportunities for growth.
A relatively obscure indicator on the world’s largest regulated crypto derivatives exchange suggests that institutional interest in bitcoin has started to taper. With bitcoin stuck in the mid-$50,000’s, it will be difficult for the dominant cryptocurrency to push $60,000 again without a trend reversal.
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I write about digital assets trends and ideate the Forbes Digital Assets tools and functionality being rolled out.
My previous roles over the past two decades have been
…
I write about digital assets trends and ideate the Forbes Digital Assets tools and functionality being rolled out.
My previous roles over the past two decades have been primarily conducting capital markets research for institutional audiences. I now apply this analytical expertise to help individual investors decipher how digital assets are adapting to the business of financial services.
I wrote my first digital assets report in 2016 dealing with the top 10 blockchain platforms with promising use cases in capital markets. Prior to my analyst days, I was head of sales for Interbank FX, a fast-growing brokerage firm that was ranked #46 in 2008 by INC magazine. I also worked for Credit Suisse and BankBoston in research roles and was a treasury analyst for a multi-billion non-profit organization.
I’m a grateful alumn of Brigham Young University’s MBA program. I’ve been fortunate to live in areas where I picked up Spanish, French, and Portuguese. Thankful for being a McGraw-Hill published author (“The Forex Trading Manual,” 2012).
For years crypto startups have struggled to raise capital without running afoul of securities regulators, namely the SEC. However, one SEC Commissioner, Hester Peirce, has taken a pro-active role in addressing this challenge. This week, she introduced a new version of her token safe harbor initiative, which would provide a three year grace period for companies to produce a functional and decentralized platform or application before having to register with the agency.
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I currently provide legal consulting to cryptocurrency and fintech companies. Prior to consulting, I spent years as Regulatory Counsel for various companies in the
…
I currently provide legal consulting to cryptocurrency and fintech companies. Prior to consulting, I spent years as Regulatory Counsel for various companies in the cryptocurrency space including Silvergate Bank, bitFlyer and Coinbase. I also previously served as Secretary of the Virtual Commodity Association.
Coinbase employee Daniel Huynh holds a celebratory bottle of champagne as he photographs outside the Nasdaq MarketSite, in New York’s Times Square, Wednesday, April 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
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In a watershed moment for the bitcoin crypto industry, industry headliner Coinbase made its public debut via a direct listing on Nasdaq. It was a volatile day of trading, but it ended with the crypto firm achieving a market capitalization of $86 billion, making it the largest direct listing ever.
That said, despite this successful first day many questions and challenges remain for Coinbase as it gets used to life as a public company. Additionally, while there remains elevated interest from investors to buy the stock, there are important considerations to take into account first.
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I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently the Social Media/Copy Lead at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States. Before
…
I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently the Social Media/Copy Lead at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States. Before joining Kraken I served as Chief Operating Officer at the Wall Street Blockchain Alliance, a non-profit trade association dedicated to the comprehensive adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies across global markets. Before joining the WSBA, I was the Lead Associate within the Emerging Technologies practice at Spitzberg Partners, a boutique corporate advisory firm that advises leading firms across industries on blockchain technology. Previously I was Vice President/Lead Strategy Analyst at Citi FinTech, where I drove strategic and new business development initiatives for Citigroup’s Global Retail and Consumer Bank business across 20 countries. I also served five years as a Senior Intelligence Analyst at Booz Allen Hamilton supporting the U.S. Department of Defense. I have a B.S. in Business Administration from the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University and a M.A. in International Affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. Additionally, I am a Certified Information Privacy Professional (United States, Canada, and the European Union) and a Certified Information Privacy Technologist at the International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP).
Brian Armstrong, founder of Coinbase, photographed for Forbes by Jamel Toppin in January 2020.
Jamel Toppin/The Forbes Collection
On the back of bitcoin’s record-setting start to the year, Coinbase posted an estimated profit between $730-800 million in Q12021. It also broke records for assets under management, revenue, verified users, and active users. This stellar performance places Coinbase in an ideal position for its upcoming direct listing. That said, investors still need to make several important decisions regarding how much of their portfolio to allocate to the stock, as well as the timing of their purchase.
Click here for Forbes’ takeaways from its earnings call on Tuesday, April 6:
Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website. Send me a secure tip.
I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently the Social Media/Copy Lead at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States. Before
…
I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently the Social Media/Copy Lead at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States. Before joining Kraken I served as Chief Operating Officer at the Wall Street Blockchain Alliance, a non-profit trade association dedicated to the comprehensive adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies across global markets. Before joining the WSBA, I was the Lead Associate within the Emerging Technologies practice at Spitzberg Partners, a boutique corporate advisory firm that advises leading firms across industries on blockchain technology. Previously I was Vice President/Lead Strategy Analyst at Citi FinTech, where I drove strategic and new business development initiatives for Citigroup’s Global Retail and Consumer Bank business across 20 countries. I also served five years as a Senior Intelligence Analyst at Booz Allen Hamilton supporting the U.S. Department of Defense. I have a B.S. in Business Administration from the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University and a M.A. in International Affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. Additionally, I am a Certified Information Privacy Professional (United States, Canada, and the European Union) and a Certified Information Privacy Technologist at the International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP).
the abbreviation word etf – Exchange Traded Fund – laid with silver letters on raw rusted steel … [+]sheet surface in slanted diagonal perspective.
getty
After a month of headlines about its flagship product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), trading with a negative premium, the world’s largest crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) provider is fighting back. In a post earlier this week, the global market leader with a little more than 75% of all $61 billion in ETP crypto assets under management announced that it will convert the GBTC in an exchange-traded fund “when permissible,” meaning when the SEC is ready to approve its first bitcoin ETF.
Although Grayscale has been thinking along these lines for a while now, the timing of the announcement could be seen as an acknowledgement that it is feeling competitive pressure from a cacophony of new bitcoin ETF applications, including one from industry heavyweight Fidelity.
GBTC’s premium fell further since the public unveiling of its ETF plan
yCharts
Furthermore, there appear to be some signs of investor unrest, with at least one—the activist group Marlton LLC—requesting that Grayscale conduct a modified dutch auction tender offer to help compensate shareholders. I spoke with James Elbaor, managing partner at Marlton LLC, and he made it clear that he holds Grayscale responsible for the negative premium. That said, Grayscale strongly pushed back on the supposition that it executes direct control over the premium and noted that they have no intention of offering such a tender offer. This is a perspective shared by at least one prominent securities lawyer who worked on the very first bitcoin ETF application in the US, Gregory Xethalis, Partner at Chapman and Cutler LLC. He told Forbes in an interview that “under the [GBTC] trust agreement and Delaware law a sponsor [Grayscale] has limited fiduciary duties and maintaining a secondary market share price premium is not one of them”. It is also worth noting that Grayscale’s filing documents state the potential for both positive and negative premiums.
Grayscale’s Roadmap to a Bitcoin ETF
Grayscale’s announcement provides a systematic, four-stage approach to an ETF, albeit without timelines:
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Launching of a private placement. A fund whose shares are only available to wealthier investors, where initial purchases are controlled by the issuing party.
Obtaining a secondary market quotation. Once purchased shares complete their lockup periods (often 6-12 months), they can then be listed on exchanges for public trading. Through this step initial purchasers cash out of the private placement shares by selling them to a wider base of investors. Currently GBTC, as well as its products offering exposure to ether (ETHE), litecoin (LTCN), ethereum classic (ETCG) and Graysclae’s composite large scale fund (GDLC), trade on OTCQX.
Starting SEC-reporting stage. A fund issuer decision to adopt SEC oversight and reporting requirements to make the private placement more transparent than typical private placements. This also helps reduce the lockup period for private placement shares from 12 months to six. Currently only GBTC and ETHE are reporting companies.
Converting SEC-reporting funds into crypto ETFs. The process by which the issuing entity issued ETF shares in exchange for the original private placement shares.
This is a regimented process that cannot be taken for granted. The second of these steps, floating enough shares in a secondary market such as the OTC Markets OTCQX exchange can’t quite be assumed that it will happen automatically, and a fund’s liquidity can help illustrate this point.
Grayscale states that GBTC, which has $38.1 billion AUM, is one of the most liquid bitcoin investment products in the world. That said, 98% of GBTC shares have never been sold, meaning its trading volume is actually much lower than its AUM. Exchanges require healthy trading volumes to list assets, so this can be a challenge for crypto assets with smaller market capitalizations.
How Grayscale Is Trying To Cope In The Interim
Grayscale has taken some small measures to address the problem, such as authorizing parent company Digital Currency Group to purchase up to $250 million worth of GBTC shares along with announcing its ETF roadmap. It is also worth noting that its GBTC product is closed to new investors, which will prevent the issuance of new shares. That said, the closed period began in December, when the premium was still positive.
Additionally, it laid the groundwork for one of the largest ever expansions of its product lineup. It has filed to register dozens of new trusts in Delaware that expand its remit to emerging fields in crypto such as DeFi and privacy coins. Two weeks ago it also launched five new assets that offer exposure: basic attention token (BAT), LINK, MANA, filecoin and livepeer. Clearly, Grayscale hopes that it can leverage its credibility and regulators and institutional investors to build sizable positions in some of these new assets where there are far less ETP competitors.
Will History Repeat Itself?
It is unclear how the GBTC premium issue will play out, and there is no guarantee that transitioning it into an ETF will solve the issue (though ETFs tend to track towards their net asset values due to higher trading liquidity). Plus, the industry is still waiting for its first. Second, this issue could come up again with other Grayscale products with ETF horizons much further off in the future.
For instance, Ethereum is by far the second biggest blockchain and product offered by GBTC, and its premium turned negative two weeks ago to less fanfare (it is currently -8.70%). This drop is in some ways more curious since ETHE does not have the same litany of competitors as GBTC. An Ether ETF is much less likely to come to the rescue for this product, let alone the others offered if and when they start to become publicly traded.