Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has announced the launch of what he’s calling a “Fact-Check” via the company’s blog.
In a May 27 post titled “Announcing Coinbase Fact Check: Decentralizing Truth in the Age of Misinformation,” Armstrong expressed the firm’s desire to combat untrue assertions aimed towards Coinbase and the crypto industry as a whole:
“We will use this section of the blog to combat misinformation and mischaracterizations about Coinbase or crypto being shared in the world.”
The post was subtitled: “Every tech company should go direct to their audience, and become a media company,” which he suggested elsewhere in the piece isn’t very difficult: “Whether traditional, social or corporate media, we’re all just typing words on the internet.”
While the title of Armstrong’s blog post article suggests that at some point in the future the fact-checking will involve some form of decentralization, at present the “fact-checking” simply consists of articles responding to what Coinbase deems as “misinformation”
So in other words, Coinbase intends to put out posts expressing Coinbase’s opinion on matters related to Coinbase and cryptocurrency on the Coinbase blog.
Some might argue they already do this. Indeed the Fact Check section currently contains four pretty standard blog posts: Coinbase’s response to a negative New York Times article about Coinbase, the company’s response to “misinformation” about Coinbase executives’ share sales, as well as an opinion piece on Bitcoin’s environmental effects and another on crypto’s use in illegal activity.
Armstrong claims the blog will come to be seen as a “source of truth”.
“To become a source of truth, companies will increasingly need to be comfortable sharing facts which paint them in a negative light as well. There is nothing like sharing mistakes, to build trust.”
Armstrong is famously averse to dealing with the media, and in 2020 claimed that company leaders are increasingly opting to connect directly with customers as opposed to engaging with mainstream journalists:
“Publishing to our own blog/Twitter/YouTube lets us say what is on our mind and talk to our customers — not get one quote in an otherwise balanced (or sometimes outright mean/snarky) article.”
Later in the post Armstrong suggested that the company will become more proactive with content creation and may embrace blockchain-based fact-checking in the future:
“In the future, it will also likely move to more crypto native platforms, like Bitclout, or crypto oracles. Long term, the real source of truth will be what can be found on-chain, with a cryptographic signature attached.”
Some firms and news outlets have already begun experimenting with fact-checking and verification using blockchain.
In April 2020, Italian news publication Ansa unveiled a blockchain-based news tracking system to enable readers to verify the origin of any news appearing on any of the company’s various media platforms.
In October 2020, Verizon launched a blockchain-based, open-source newsroom product that binds and secures the firm’s news publications using “cryptographic principles,” however, the firm noted at the time that “only text changes are currently tracked on the blockchain.”
The United States’ biggest crypto exchange would have made more money by simply buying and holding Bitcoin (BTC) in 2013.
Data circulating on social media reveals that despite Coinbase’s $800-million profits in Q1, the company would still be richer had it used its seed funding cash to buy BTC.
Coinbase profits lose out to 2013 hodlers
Ahead of its initial public offering on April 14, Coinbase reported bumper revenue this week. At $1.8 billion, Q1 outperformed the entirety of 2020.
The numbers became an instant talking point as market participants weigh up the likely impact of the IPO launch. Other IPOs, including the recent Deliveroo sale, sparked sell-offs.
Amid sky-high valuations and the associated buzz, however, it appears that all Coinbase had to do in order to outperform was to buy Bitcoin.
Specifically, the exchange’s $30-million seed funding in 2013 would be worth up to $2 billion had it been converted to BTC at the time.
By contrast, Coinbase’s lifetime profits total to date are estimated to be somewhere between $780 million and $1.3 billion.
“Coinbase is going to list publicly in less than 10 days and reported blowout numbers today (~800m in profit on 1.8B on revenue),” developer Vijay Boyapati commented.
“Sounds great, but imagine how much more they’d be worth if they had held their profits in #Bitcoin instead of dollars for the last 8 years.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate has topped 200%, and since April 2013, BTC/USD is up over 43,000%.
Bitcoin supply shortage stays real
Boyapati was touching on another, more controversial aspect of Coinbase’s business model to come to light this year. For all its success, executives have always chosen to hold a fairly modest amount of BTC.
According to its recent filing with U.S. regulators, the exchange owns 4,486 BTC. By contrast, as Boyapati notes, newcomer MicroStrategy, despite not being an exchange, has bought in excess of 91,000 BTC since August last year — a stash that has doubled in U.S. dollar terms for the company to date.
“It’s almost as if Coinbase doesn’t even believe in the industry in which they are one of the biggest players. Sad,” he added.
Not everyone was convinced. Erik Voorhees, founder of crypto exchange service ShapeShift, argued that Coinbase’s contribution to the cryptocurrency phenomenon made it incomparable to MicroStrategy.
“Imagine holding MicroStrategy in higher esteem than Coinbase. The latter struggled for eight years to build the most successful Bitcoin company in the world, serving 50 million people,” he responded to a tweet from Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp.
“The former discovered Bitcoin in 2020 and bought a bunch… from Coinbase.”
Bitcoin exchange inflows vs. BTC/USD. Source: Ki Young Ju/ Twitter
Meanwhile, data on Wednesday showed a conspicuous spike in exchange outflows this week, a sign that long-term hodling and overall interest in buying Bitcoin is growing fast.
“Are we in the market cycle high? No,” Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics service CryptoQuant, which published the data, commented, highlighting the difference between the current climate and traditional Bitcoin cycle tops.
“When the market reaches its peak, everyone deposits BTC to exchanges to sell.”
Coinbase Pro, the professional trading arm of Coinbase, saw 12,000 BTC leave in a single transaction.
Bitcoin (BTC) is looking shaky at the start of a new week as $60,000 remains out of reach — could anything change in the coming days?
After an average weekend which failed to deliver the breakout that many had hoped for, Bitcoin is clinging to the mid-$50,000 range.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that can help shape future price performance.
Coinbase IPO a beacon in flat macro sea
Stock markets were unimpressive on Monday, April 5 with many Asian markets closed for public holidays and United States futures seeing little movement.
Following the Suez Canal debacle, oil was the only commodity with noticeable energy as a decision from OPEC+ countries to increase supply put pressure on prices.
With a lack of momentum available, Bitcoin, therefore, had little to sustain any macro-influenced price run, and $60,000 resistance remained in place at the time of writing.
One major event that crypto analysts are eagerly waiting for, however, is Coinbase’s IPO set for April 14.
As Cointelegraph reported, the event is a milestone for the industry but could be accompanied by selling on launch day — a practice seen with other IPOs both old and new.
Elsewhere, U.S. bond yield rises remained a worry this week with their upward trajectory coinciding with a lack of progress for safe havens more widely.
“The repricing of inflation risk and U.S. rates, which will impact discount rates of future earnings and the way stocks are being valued is a source of uncertainty,” Johanna Chua, chief economist for Citigroup Global Markets, told Bloomberg.
“The other uncertainty is the pace of the vaccinations and the virus.”
Analyst: Bitcoin is at the “$3-5K stage” of 2021 bull run
Bitcoin may be struggling for new support, but hodlers need to zoom out for the real picture.
That was the mood among analysts on Monday as BTC/USD headed lower toward $56,000.
After challenging $60,000 yet again late on Friday, the weekend saw bearish moves take over, culminating in a dip to $56,500.
A subsequent rebound was muted, with $57,000 forming a temporary focal point at the time of writing.
“The support resistance battle is intense,” on-chain data service Whalemap added about current behavior on Sunday.
“Levels from last week are working pretty well. Bitcoin is being capped by the $60,045 level pretty spot on. Is this the calm before the storm?”
For popular Twitter analyst William Clemente, however, there was little reason to be bearish on longer timeframes, which have the support of a tranche of positive on-chain data.
“This Bitcoin Bull Run is still far from overheated on multiple on-chain indicators,” he summarized.
“In comparison to 2017, it appears we’re around the $3k-5k range.”
Clemente uploaded a comparative chart showing Bitcoin’s 2013 and 2017 price tops via the Puell Multiple, a classic metric that continues to signal that there is room for growth before a profit-taking sell-off can begin.
Such an early position in the bull cycle implies that the majority of upward price performance is yet to come for Bitcoin, something which would give credence to some of the higher year-end forecasts — $288,000 and more.
BTC/USD halving price comparison chart. Source: William Clemente/ Twitter
No one’s selling
On the topic of miner selling, this is a habit yet to reappear this month.
Despite Bitcoin lingering near all-time highs alongside record network hash rate and mining difficulty, there is no appetite to take profit on mined coins yet, data shows.
Compiled by on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, the miner net position change has signalled miners retaining their newly-acquired coins over the past week.
By contrast, 2021 has been broadly marked by sell-offs, particularly in January as Bitcoin hit $40,000 for the first time. Sales have come to a halt since, however, regardless of continued — albeit slower — price gains.
“Still not selling, still accumulating, clear trend,” quant analyst Lex Moskovski commented on the Glassnode numbers.
BTC miner net position change chart. Source: Glassnode
In tandem with miners come exchanges, which continue to see their BTC balances decrease. Traders, then, are no more interested in selling at near $60,000 than anyone else.
Purpose ETF nears 17,000 BTC holdings
Conspicuously bullish this month are institutions — and they are putting their money where their mouth is, the latest figures say.
With open interest in Bitcoin futures markets near all-time highs, institution-grade products continue to see huge demand — albeit if the price is right.
As such, the first licensed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Canada, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, keeps adding BTC in step with its assets under management (AUM).
As of April 5, Purpose held 16,462 BTC and $22.1 billion CAD ($17.56 billion USD) in AUM, having only launched its ETF two months ago.
Purpose Bitcoin ETF BTC holdings. Source: Bybt
As Cointelegraph reported, the pressure is likely on the U.S. to follow Canada in allowing an ETF onto the market, with such a product set to receive multiples of what Purpose has been able to draw from institutions in its home jurisdiction.
All this, however, could be coming at the expense of a stalwart institutional player, Grayscale, and its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
In a battle over fees, GBTC may be losing interest to the more economical Purpose, which is one of multiple Bitcoin offerings undercutting the company on its management costs to clients.
Time to channel “situational awareness”
In a classic sign that the mantra of “the longer the perspective, the better” remains best for Bitcoiners, the popular stock-to-flow price forecasting model remains right on track for $288,000 and higher.
As noted by its creator, quant analyst PlanB on Sunday, the model’s “bull/bear recognition signal” is casually repeating its movements from 2013 and 2017.
An accompanying chart showed BTC/USD spot price following its predicted trajectory, with no sign that the model was being invalidated by short-term rumination below $60,000.
The incarnation of stock-to-flow used was stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX), an updated version which places Bitcoin within the context of other macro assets and tracks its transformation into a new standard.
“My favorite chart for Situational Awareness,” PlanB wrote in comments.
“S2FX for rough long term level forecast (white line), combined with accurate on-chain bull/bear recognition signal (color overlay).”
BTC/USD stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) chart as of April 4, 2021. Source: PlanB/ Twitter
S2FX calls for a $288,000 price tag by the end of 2021, this forming an average price in the current halving cycle which will complete in roughly April 2024. The price peak before then, by contrast, could be double the average or $576,000, PlanB has said.
SushiSwap’s governance token, SUSHI, could get to $100, which represents five times its current price, according to John Todaro, head of business development at TradeBlock.
One of the Biggest Successes in DEXs
SushiSwap is a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange based on the Ethereum blockchain. Its price rose to about $19, a 30-fold increase from a low of November 2020. Todaro wrote in Thursday’s Bankless newsletter that the protocol has proven to be one of the greatest success stories in DeFi, with over $100 million in cumulative revenue since its introduction.
SUSHI holders receive a share of SushiSwap’s fees, similar to how stockholder holders can receive a dividend. SushiSwap recently started this mechanism by paying token holders a portion of exchange charges across the network.
Investors and participants in the market willnow earn incentivesthrough ownership of a valuable asset. Also, investors can assess assets paying for a prize at a quantitative stage since they can somehow predict future rewards.
Todaro noted that they often price dividend-paying stocks at an expected discount rate on the conventional equity markets by discounting future cash flows to date. In calculating cash flows, he used historical trading volumes and taxes.
The terminal growth rates consistent with the broader industry and economy are modeled at 3 percent annually. The terminal growth rate in line with the country’s GDP in which the business operates can be structured in such models. In the US, itusually rangesfrom 1.5% to 4% annually. SushiSwap is a young business and thus has a significant risk over more mature, traditional enterprises.
SUSHI’s Smooth Rally
While other DEXes offer similar governance types tokens, SUSHI is different, as SushiSwap is one of the few projects that pays owners to own a coin. Hence, there has been a rise in demand. As of March 15, 2021,prices rosefrom just $2.1 in December 2020 to about $20.97 – an increase of 915 percent. While several other tokens on the market are glorified methods for speculating on cryptographic content, SushiSwap tries to do something special that is time-testing.
Todaro calculates the intrinsic market value of SushiSwap to be about $12.6 billion, or a cumulative token value of around $100 based on its assumptions.
Todaro cautions investors about significant market threats, including a slump in DeFi crypto-monetary trading despite high valuations. This overall risk in the industry will “heavily impact the amount and thus the trade costs of SushiSwap,”writesTodaro.