Don’t Count on Buying Bitcoin at $30,000, Says Crypto Analyst Justin Bennett – Here’s Why

Closely followed crypto analyst Justin Bennett says that bargain-hunters hoping to get Bitcoin at $30,000 will likely end up disappointed.

Bennett tells his 97,000 Twitter followers that many people who watch his YouTube strategy sessions are saying that a $30,000 Bitcoin is imminent, but he doubts traders will get BTC that cheap.

“Every other comment on my YouTube channel is someone waiting/wishing for $30k $BTC.

It would be the first time in a long time that retail gets exactly what they want.

I think a move higher from $35k-$36k is more likely.”

The analyst says that the dollar index (DXY), which compares the USD to a basket of other fiat currencies, is playing a big role in the crypto markets. Usually, a strengthening DXY can signal weakness in many assets, while a struggling DXY often suggests higher prices.

According to Bennett, crypto traders may want to keep an eye on a trend reversal playing out in the DXY to signal a new bull run in the digital asset markets.

“DXY is still coming off. 95.50 is probably next.

A close below 94.60 is required to reverse the trend.”

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Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter

The analyst recently said that contrary to what some say, he doesn’t think the crypto bull market is over. While some short-term volatility may be in play, Bennett says crypto is still due for another “melt-up” rally sometime this year.

“I don’t think the crypto bull market has ended.

Markets don’t crash when everyone expects them to, and right now, everyone expects it.

My base case is for one more melt-up this year, followed by a correction in either late 2022 or 2023…

So that means we could be in for more volatility in the short term if the stock market is going to strong-arm the Fed into remaining accommodative for longer.

But ultimately, I don’t think this crypto bull market is over just yet. It’ll be an interesting few months regardless.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Long-Time Bitcoin Trader Tone Vays Issues Warning, Says BTC Hinting Historically ‘Catastrophic’ Pattern

Veteran crypto trader Tone Vays is warning that BTC’s moving averages are flashing signs of potential catastrophe in the coming months.

In a new YouTube update, Vays tells his 120,000 subscribers that Bitcoin’s seven-month moving average is in danger of dipping below the 20-month moving average.

Historically speaking, such crossovers have led to major losses for the leading crypto by market cap, according to Vays.

“We want to avoid this moving average crossover. The only way to avoid this moving average cross-over is for the prices to rise back above the short-term moving average, which is approximately $50,000 either in the current month or next month. That’s the only way we can avoid the upcoming moving average cross-over, which should be avoided.”

The trader says the last time the seven-month moving average dipped beneath the 20-month moving average, Bitcoin lost half of its value.

“The last time these two crossed over, the price of Bitcoin fell over 50%. You don’t want that. And we went all the way down to the next moving average. We can have a repeat of that if the price of Bitcoin is still hovering around $40,000 going into May as these moving averages crossover.”

Looking ahead, Vays warns fellow traders that a 50% price cut to Bitcoin may be in the realm of possibilities, though it will likely be followed by a bull market.

“I would not be surprised at all if we end up with a repeat of November 2018 when the big catastrophic fall down from $40,000 to $20,000, and then start our new bull market.”

Bitcoin is trading at $38,544.33 at time of writing, up 4% on the day.

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Trading Veteran Tone Vays Says Bitcoin Bull Market Is Not Over, Doubles Down on $100,000 BTC Call

Seasoned trader Tone Vays says he remains bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) despite BTC’s sharp decline from its all-time high of $69,000.

In a new strategy session, Vays explains to his 119,000 YouTube subscribers that he’s still biased on Bitcoin in the bullish direction and that BTC has not yet entered bear territory.

“I believe in higher highs and higher lows, especially in a consolidating environment. So for me to admit that there’s a bear market, I need to break this low [$28,805].”

Vays also names several key reasons why he believes Bitcoin is still in a bullish environment from a fundamental perspective.

“When we go up exponentially, it’s easier to call the start of a bear market. When you don’t go up exponentially, and this looks exponentially in absolute terms [BTC rally from $3,700 to $64,000], but not in percentage terms. And also not based on what was happening in the general environment.

MicroStrategy is getting in. Tesla’s getting in. El Salvador accepting it as a reserve currency. These were very bullish macro signs.”

The veteran trader also says that Bitcoin’s market structure in the higher timeframe remains bullish and that he expects BTC to eventually take out its all-time high.

“It did not give me the impression that this was the start of a bear market, and it wasn’t because we made a new high. And it’s so rare.

I will always make the bet that the breach of the prior swing high will take us all the way back up here [$100,000]. I will always make this bet.” 

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Are We In A Bear Market? Glassnode Analyses The Latest Bitcoin Crash

Let’s cut to the chase: Glassnode thinks we’re in a bear market. In their latest “The Week On-Chain” newsletter, the company tries to “establish the likelihood that a prolonged bear market is in play” by “using historical investor behaviour, and profitability patterns as our guide.” One thing’s for sure, the recent crash was severe, and “such a heavy drawdown is likely to change investor perceptions and sentiment at a macro scale.”

Related Reading | Bitcoin Leads As Markets Sees Record Outflows. Bear Market Incoming?

How severe was it? According to Glassnode, “this is now the second worst sell-off since the 2018-20 bear market, eclipsed only by July 2021, where the market fell -54% from the highs set in April.” Apart from the price, investors “capitulated over $2.5 Billion in net realised value on-chain this week.” Who were those paper hand investors? “The lion’s share of these losses are attributed to Short-Term Holders.” Of course.

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Glassnode Points Out The Bear Market Indicators

  • The first indicator Glassnode goes for is “The Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric.” Which measures “the overall market profitability as a proportion of market cap.” How is Bitcoin doing on that front? “NUPL is currently trading at 0.325 which indicates that an equivalent to 32.5% of the Bitcoin market cap is held as an unrealised profit.”

Price drawdown from ATH - Glassnode

BTC Price Drawdown from ATH | Source: Glassnode

How does this point to a bear market? “Considering previous cycles, such low profitability is typical in the early to mid phase of a bear market (orange). One could also reasonably argue that a bear market started in May 2021 based on this observation.” This is not enough, though. But Glassnode has more.

  • The second indicator the company hit us with is “The MVRV Ratio.” This one “is calculated as the market cap, divided by the realised cap; and is a useful tool for identifying periods of high, and poor investor profitability.”

How does this point to a bear market? “With a current MVRV-Z reading of 0.85,  the market is well within territory visited in bearish markets, and a bearish divergence is noted, similar to the NUPL metric above.” Is this enough? No way. But Glassnode has an ace up its sleeve.

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  • The third indicator is “the Realised-to-Liveliness Ratio (RTLR).” They use “the Realised Price using Liveliness in the denominator” to calculate this one. 

How does this point to a bear market? “The market is now trading below the RTLR price of $39.2k, but above the Realised price of $24.2k. Again, this is often observed during early to mid stage bear markets.”

Who Sold And Who Is Still Holding Strong?

There’s no surprise here. The “Short-Term Holders (STH)” are selling. How does Glassnode define STHs, though? By the age of their coins. “Coins are considered to be owned by STHs when they are younger than ~155-days, and are statistically more likely to be spent in the face of volatility.” No surprise there either.

It’s worth pointing out that the STH’s coins are “currently held at a loss.” In fact, “as of this week, almost the entire STH supply is underwater.” That could be scary for newcomers, so those coins are at risk of being sold. At a loss. These people are going to regret their emotional decisions for life, but that’s a topic for another article.

BTCUSD price chart for 01/24/2022 - TradingView

BTC price chart for 01/24/2022 on Oanda | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

The other question here is, who’s holding strong? According to Glassnode, “Interestingly, STH supply remains near multi-year lows, which is indicative of their counter-part, the Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who appear impressively unfazed by such a severe drawdown.” Of course. People who already understood the game are not easy to shake.

How are the LTH’s coins doing? “Over 59.3% of the circulating supply has now been dormant for over 1yr, increasing by 5.8% of circulating supply in the last three months.” This sounds bullish, but Glassnode finds a way to rain on the LTH’s parade. “Whilst a rising, and large proportion of mature coins is generally considered constructive, it once again bears similarities to a bear market, a time when only the HODLers and patient accumulators remain.”

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bottom Signal From Bear Market, Black Thursday Could Save The Bull Run

Conclusions And Hopium

According to Glassnode, one could argue that the “bear market started in May 2021.” Does it feel like a bear market, though? No, it doesn’t. It doesn’t feel like a bull market, either. We may be in a new phase. The Bitcoin cycle might be dead. Or maybe we’re just in a bear market as Glassnode tried to prove. Either way, LTHs are not selling.

Featured Image by mana5280 on Unsplash  | Charts by Glassnode and TradingView

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Bitcoin (BTC) Running Out of Time To Save Bull Market: Veteran Trader Tone Vays

Veteran trader Tone Vays says Bitcoin (BTC) needs to finish the week strong or it risks experiencing another liquidation candle.

In a new strategy session, the seasoned crypto analyst tells his 119,000 subscribers that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s chances of recapturing the $49,000 level, but the clock is ticking for the king crypto to make a move to the upside.

“I am still optimistic for the current month that we’re going to rally back into the triangle and possibly above the short-term moving average, which means we have to close the month above or very close to $49,000.

I believe that’s possible, but the month only has 10 days left. So Bitcoin better get a move on in the next 48 hours, or that is not likely to happen.”

Vays digs into the weekly chart and highlights the miner’s rolling inventory (MRI). This metric gauges sentiment among Bitcoin miners where a percentage above 100 means miners are net-selling their newly minted BTC, whereas a sub-100% number means miners are hoarding their fresh BTC.

“The weekly chart is technically still looking bullish off of the MRI, and only bullish off of the MRI. By all the metrics, it’s actually pretty bearish.

We need this week to be positive, otherwise, Bitcoin is in trouble.”

The analyst concludes by looking at Bitcoin’s previous two big selloffs which began on December 27th and then again on January 5th. He’s concerned that even if Bitcoin climbs back to $44,000, it might soon capitulate back below the $40,000 support.

“Bitcoin is in trouble, and if it stays here a couple more days [approximately $41,722], then I believe a repeat of what happened last month and early this month is very, very possible.

[It could reach] $44,000 in the next week, then it’s very likely to take another leg down to about $38,000 or lower.”

Bitcoin is currently up 1.53% on the day and trading for $42,272.

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Crypto Bull Market To Reach ‘Unsustainable’ Levels of Hype in 2022, Predicts Coin Bureau

The host of popular crypto channel Coin Bureau is laying out his predictions about how the crypto bull run might come to an end during 2022.

In a new video, the analyst known as Guy tells his 1.83 million YouTube subscribers that a bear market will begin but only if one or a combination of several key factors comes to pass.

“The first condition is a catalyst of some kind that would create insane amounts of hype and drive crypto prices to unsustainable highs, such as the approval of a spot-Bitcoin ETF [exchange-traded fund].

I say this because the BTC top in the previous bull market happened on the same day that Bitcoin futures began trading on the CME [Chicago Mercantile Exchange] in 2017.

The likelihood that this will happen again with a spot-Bitcoin ETF is quite high, and my evidence for this is the record amounts of inflow we saw with the first Bitcoin Futures ETF when it was listed in the United States [in October of 2021].

Not surprisingly, inflows and trading volume have dropped off significantly since then.”

The Coin Bureau host is also concerned about how regulation might affect the future of cryptocurrencies in over half a dozen ways.

“The fourth and final condition that needs to be met for the bull market to end is a crypto-specific factor that crashes the crypto market. There’s really no shortage of black swans here.

A crackdown on Tether [USDT], a crackdown on stablecoins in general.

A crackdown on crypto developers because of the poorly worded provisions in the recently passed infrastructure bill, a crackdown on crypto miners and validators for the same reason.

A crackdown on crypto wallets in the name of anti-money laundering. A crackdown on DeFi [decentralized finance] for the same reason.

A crackdown on crypto mining because of environmental concerns [and] energy shortages.”

Looking at the metaverse, Guy follows up on a previous discussion about the nascent crypto sector. He thinks recent corporate interest in the space is a sign of increasing expansion and momentum.

“The metaverse narrative will continue along with the growth of NFTs [non-fungible tokens], blockchain gaming and other crypto niches that fall under the same umbrella…

They’ll also drive the adoption of cryptocurrency at the institutional level. We’ve already seen a dozen big-brand companies get into NFTs, the latest being Adidas, whose NFT collection managed to briefly become the biggest by trading volume.”



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Bitcoin Sets New All-Time High Above $66,000

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The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market dominance surpassed new all-time highs today. The update comes the day after the first U.S. Bitcoin futures ETF went live on the New York Stock Exchange.

Bitcoin Hits New Highs

Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, just broke all-time high. It briefly crossed $66,000 on multiple exchanges this afternoon. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,023.


The rise follows ProShares’ Tuesday launch of its Bitcoin futures ETF on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF, which won approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission only last Friday, surpassed $500 million in trading volume within its first two hours of operation. 

Bitcoin’s previous all-time high price was $64,863, which it reached on April 14, 2021. It suffered an intense correction over late spring and early summer, briefly dipping below $30,000 in late July. However, the flagship cryptocurrency enjoyed steady gains throughout August before receding slightly in September and then resuming its upward momentum in October. It’s rallied in recent weeks, up 48% this month. 

Bitcoin has come close to breaking its previous high on several occasions over the last few days amid increased fervor in the market. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also shown strength in the same period.

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At current prices, Bitcoin’s market cap is now about $1.2 trillion. It holds roughly 47% dominance over the market.

Disclaimer: At the time of writing, the author of this piece owned BTC, ETH, and several other cryptocurrencies. 

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The differences in trading in a bullish and bearish market, explained

An automated trading platform can help users identify and execute cryptocurrency trades with less manual effort. 

It can be difficult for traders to find the time necessary to spend in front of graphs as they attempt to determine the right time to buy and sell. As a result, many have found that they have lost out on many opportunities since they weren’t on their computers at the right time. Automated trading can help cryptocurrency traders take advantage of as many of these opportunities as possible and addresses many of the problems mentioned above. 

TradeSanta is an automated trading platform that helps users automate trades on many of the major exchanges. With automated trading features, users can take advantage of different algorithms to execute trades across multiple accounts and various strategies at one time. The program scans for trading opportunities based on market analytics and calculations and works significantly faster than manual clicking.

In the last year, TradeSanta has added TradingView signals for Binance, Huobi, and HitBTСX, all of which are based on the TradingView cryptocurrency screener. The platform has also rolled out the DCA bot for Binance (BNB)Futures in Alpha for the traders with the maximum subscription and added a last cycle option so the bot can finish the current cycle and stop.

Disclaimer. Cointelegraph does not endorse any content or product on this page. While we aim at providing you with all important information that we could obtain, readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company and carry full responsibility for their decisions, nor can this article be considered as investment advice.

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Is Solana the Fastest Horse? Veteran Crypto Trader Shows Why SOL May Be Set to Outperform Everything

A closely followed trader suggests that smart contract platform Solana (SOL) might be the fastest horse in the crypto bull market.

The trader known as Cantering Clark shares with his 76,000 followers a snapshot of a collection of different cryptos throughout the day.

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He notes that even while Bitcoin was receiving all of the attention during its rally past $60,000, SOL quietly outperformed the rest of the market.

“There are so many reasons to have been long SOL to this point. Are you seeing the trend yet? Even on a day where Bitcoin is the main show, Sol is outperforming. Fast horse.”

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Source: Cantering Clark/Twitter

Looking at Bitcoin and the crypto markets in general, the trader says he’s keeping his outlook simple. He sees the upcoming launch of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) as a bullish catalyst that should send prices higher.

“How many people are going to get long as hell thinking each confirmation is going to yield a higher result?

I believe in the inefficiency of this market.

ETF = ATH”

According to Canterin Clark, Bitcoin will take the lion’s share of capital flows moving into the near term. He says he expects altcoins to underperform compared to BTC.

“If you think Bitcoin is going to break the ATH soon and you are also positioned heavily in alts, maybe rethink that…

Because when Bitcoin breaks the ATH alts are going to get cut down. So yes, the post absolutely makes sense.”

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Crypto Markets Won’t Be Topping Out This Year, According to Crypto Analyst Nicholas Merten – Here’s Why

Popular crypto strategist Nicholas Merten is not convinced the crypto markets are primed to top out in 2021.

The trader tells his 470,000 YouTube subscribers that other crypto enthusiasts believe the current cycle will end soon, with Bitcoin (BTC) rallying all the way to $100,000 by the end of the year.

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The top crypto asset by market cap is trading at $45,261.73 at time of writing and is down 14% in the past week, according to CoinGecko.

Merten, however, argues that market cycles are “maturing and lengthening,” predicting the current cycle to last until November or December of 2022 at the earliest.

“I think that’s a very reasonable way to play it, and that’s calling for a $10 trillion market cap – a 5x from here. I think that’s a pretty nice ask in that case, and it’s a reasonable amount of time for this new valuation increase as crypto really hits the mainstream and gets institutions on board.” 

The total crypto market cap is $2.15 trillion at time of writing, according to CoinGecko. If Bitcoin’s market share in the crypto space remains constant, a 5x increase could mean that the top cryptocurrency can surge above $200,000 by late next year.

Merten also predicts the total market cap will pick up some momentum in the “coming months” since crypto is “in the full swing of the bull market.”

“The important thing is altcoin market cap is up… this to me is a guarantee that we are not in a bear market now. It’s altcoin dominance.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 44,108.82 1.71%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,352.94 0.31%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 78.07 6.16%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 252.77 2.44%