Bitcoin Thanksgiving Day Data Reveals Peak Possible Within 30 Days

Today across the United States, the masses are celebrating the annual Thanksgiving holiday tradition. In the past, the holiday has acted as a catalyst for the final phase of the Bitcoin bull run. 

To celebrate the holiday and the ongoing cryptocurrency bull cycle, we are looking back at the history of Bitcoin price action over the years to try to predict what is to come next. 

Please Pass The Bitcoin

The tradition of Thanksgiving began in 1619, which celebrated the annual harvest ahead of colder winter months. Rather than allow crops to spoil, there was a large feast that sometimes lasted days. 

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The tradition today is commonly centered around a turkey dinner, with stuffing, mashed potatoes, gravy, and pumpkin pie. Dinner table discussions range from tender to tense, depending on the family unit. 

Related Reading | 10 Bullish Monthly Bitcoin Price Charts To Start November

Such dinner table conversations in the past have possibly had an impact on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with the holiday always occurring near important culmination points in price cycles. 

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To celebrate in a very NewsBTC way, we’ve taken a deep dive into the history of holiday and the effect it’s had on price action. The results are quite interesting, and something BTC holders might want to give thanks for. 

bitcoin thanksgiving

Past tops and bottoms have been within 48 days of Thanksgiving  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Thanksgiving Proximity To Peaks Give Holders Something To Celebrate 

Dating back as far as the Bitcoin price index will run, we’ve added a pumpkin-colored vertical line to represent each Thanksgiving to the day. 

The proximity of Thanksgiving to important pivot points in Bitcoin market structure is undeniable. The holiday appears close to most major bull market peaks and bear troughs. 

In fact, five out of five major Bitcoin tops and bottoms have appeared within 48 days of Thanksgiving. Four out of five of these same tops and bottoms have occurred within 24 days of Thanksgiving. Finally, two out of five tops and bottoms appear to coincide with the holiday itself. 

Related Reading | Want To Learn Technical Analysis? Read The NewsBTC Trading Course

In 2017, Thanksgiving dinner table talk was less focused on “pass the gravy” and instead discussed “which coins to buy.” 24 days following Thanksgiving that year, Bitcoin rallied 150% from $8,000 to $20,000, putting in the bull market peak. The following Thanksgiving was within just 24 days to the bear market bottom.

24 days from today and 150% would put the top cryptocurrency by market cap at around $144,000 on approximately December 19, 2021. Currently, there is more data to suggest that this could happen again than information to suggest otherwise. Is this the type of harvest crypto holders should expect with the US holiday here? If that’s the case, the Thanksgiving theme is appropriate, as it will be the last major harvest before a very cold crypto winter. 

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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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Evening Star: Reversal Pattern Could Sunset Bitcoin Price Action For Weeks

Bitcoin has now retraced as much as $11,000 and 27% from its 2021 peak, and while the current high might not be the top for this bull run, it could send price action headed downwards for a few weeks before the uptrend resumes.

Bulls have only days to prevent a bearish evening star reversal pattern from forming on weekly timeframes, which could dim the bullish momentum the cryptocurrency has had thus far this year for at least a few weeks.

Bearish Reversal Pattern Could Dim The Lights On Recent Bull Run

Bitcoin fell to under $31,000 today in one of the largest red daily candles in the asset’s history. The now $11,000 and increasing by the minute decline has resulted in shaving as much as 27% off of the price per BTC from highs set earlier this year.

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The top cryptocurrency has recovered nearly $1,000 from the day’s low, but there’s now a chance that bears have taken back control of the trend on higher timeframes.

evening star bitcoin

evening star bitcoin


Bitcoin could be forming an evening star bearish reversal pattern on weekly timeframes | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

If by Sunday night bulls cannot push the price of Bitcoin back above $35,000, an evening star pattern will form on weekly timeframes. Evening star patterns are a bearish Japanese candlestick reversal formations, that tend to form at the peak of an uptrend.

A similar pattern signaled the top at $42,000 on daily timeframes, and is now at risk of extending into weekly timeframes as well.

Where The Top Cryptocurrency Could Correct To: The Mid-BB

The higher the timeframe the technical signal, the stronger the results. The initial daily evening star was the turning point of the trend, and now weekly timeframes are tumbling also.

But because monthly timeframes have only recently begun to trend upward, any correction should only last a matter of weeks, not months.

Related Reading | The Striking Similarities Between The 2017 Bitcoin Peak And Now

As for where the correction could head from here if the reversal pattern confirms with a close below $35,000, looking at the last bull market suggests the middle-Bollinger Band could act as the perfect point to reignite buying interest.

bitcoin bearish reversal bollinger bands

bitcoin bearish reversal bollinger bands


The middle-BB could act as a logical target for each correction | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

During the last bull market, Bitcoin dropped back to the middle-Bollinger Band – a simple moving average – before rocketing back up higher. It did so three times after the breakout into a new bull market was confirmed.

If the cryptocurrency follows a similar path, this is just correction one of three that could come with further upside on the way to the true high timeframe peak.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com

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Centralized Wealth: The Downside To Institutional Bitcoin Buying

The recent Bitcoin rally to as high as $42,000 has been predominantly been driven by institutional investors suddenly waking up and realizing the asset’s long-term value potential. Buying in now, means not paying ultra-high prices some day down the line if it ultimately catches on.

And while FOMO from wealthy individuals seeking to protect that wealth has been rewarding for cryptocurrency investors, the ongoing centralization of BTC and wealth could have dangerous consequences down the line, that the asset’s creator had sought to avoid. Here’s why the wave of institutional buying might not be as positive as it seems on the surface.

The Great Wealth Transfer From Cash To Bitcoin, Nothing More

Bitcoin price is trading at $37,000 per coin currently and has never been in higher demand, all while the world is still under the grips of a global pandemic. Unemployment has also never been higher, and normal everyday citizens are clamoring for stimulus money to help them pay the bills, or to cover the cost of food and other basic necessities.

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Yet more capital is flowing into Bitcoin than ever before. And unlike 2017, it isn’t only retail money. Retail investors are back, but the price per BTC is even higher this time around. They aren’t the ones buying up a massive share of the limited cryptocurrency’s supply at these levels.

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They’re buying negligible amounts that do contribute to the overall upside momentum, but the price appreciation has predominantly been due to wealthy institutions buying Bitcoin in large sums.

Massive OTC buy orders taking place behind the scenes are taking what little supply out of the market that used to be sold. It has made a lot of early crypto investors and retail investors who survived the bear market wealthy, and that’s been a positive change in global wealth distribution.

bitcoin btcusd

bitcoin btcusd


Institutional buying is said to be driving up the price per BTC | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

However, with whales absorbing such a sizable share of the Bitcoin supply, in isn’t the same decentralized asset that caught the attention of early evangelists hoping for a better financial situation for all.

Forget Financial Freedom If Cryptocurrency Becomes Centralized By Current Wealth

Bitcoin as a technology enables a free financial future, but because it is offered on a free market – as it should be – over time it is coming into possession and therefore the control of the world’s currently wealthy.

The cryptocurrency’s original creator, Satoshi Nakamoto sought to free the world from third-party’s control over money. But if most of the Bitcoin supply is owned by the few, has the distribution of wealth at all been affected by its emergence as originally intended?

bitcoin wallet btc

bitcoin wallet btc


Whale wallets with 1000+ BTC or more continue to accumulate | Source: glassnode via Arcane Research

Sadly, the answer is no. Even with the recent cryptocurrency “crash,” wallets who already own 1,000 BTC or more kept on buying coins. Only those already wealthy can afford to keep buying coins at $35,000 each, and those who already own $35,000,000 USD worth in a single wallet absolutely can be classified as “already wealthy.”

Bitcoin could have made them that wealth, and that’s wonderful. But will cryptocurrency evangelists cheer when the bulk of the supply is controlled and centralized at corporate treasuries and not citizens seeking financial freedom?

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Over 2400 wallets own 1,000 BTC or more, for a combined 2.4 million of the 21 million total Bitcoin supply. That means only 2400 individuals or entities posses as much as 10% of the most scarce resource to ever exist.

And while these entities are pumping the price of Bitcoin for any crypto investors who got in before they did, the original intent of Bitcoin is becoming clouded by increased centralization of the same old wealth.

Without a real changing of the guard, the cryptocurrency will have failed at least a portion of its original mission.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com

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