Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Here’s What SOPR Data Says

Bitcoin has continued its rally breaking above $42k today, making many wonder whether $33k was the bottom. Here’s what the SOPR data says about it.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Starts Turning Green Again

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the current BTC SOPR pattern may look similar to that around the bottom formation back in July of last year.

The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (or SOPR in short) is an on-chain indicator that tells us whether investors are currently selling at a profit or at a loss.

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The metric works by checking the history of each coin being sold on the chain to see what price it was last moved at. If the Bitcoin price before was less than the current one, then the coin is considered to have been sold in profit.

When the SOPR has values greater than 1, it means holders have been selling at a profit on average. On the other hand, values of the indicator below the threshold imply investors sold at a loss overall during this period.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Leverage Ratio Suggests More Decline May Be Coming

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Naturally, SOPR values exactly equal to one mean the market broke even on average. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator over the last year:

Bitcoin SOPR

Looks like the LTH SOPR had a large spike recently | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see above, there are separate graphs for two versions of the Bitcoin SOPR indicator. They are the short-term holder (STH) SOPR and the long-term holder (LTH) SOPR.

Now, looking at the chart, it seems like the STH SOPR has been below one for a while now, but has now started to just turn green again. Also, the LTH SOPR had a huge spike recently.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Begins Bounce From 7-Year Bull Trend Line — Is This The Bottom?

The quant has pointed out that this trend of the two metrics seems to be similar to what happened during the May-July 2021 bear period. The bottom formation took place then, so if there is any pattern here, the bottom may be in now as well.

However, the analyst also notes that the reason behind the large LTH SOPR spike this time looks to be because of the Bitfinex hack, where a large number of dormant coins were moved. On the other hand, the last time it happened was because of a bear trap. Whether this is a false signal this time because of it remains to be seen.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $42.7k, up 15% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC's price rallies up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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SOPR Shows Bitcoin Holders Continue To Sell At A Loss, Similar To May-June 2021

The on-chain indicator SOPR suggests that Bitcoin holders have continued to sell at a loss for a while now. This behavior is similar to what was seen during the May-June 2021 mini-bear period.

Bitcoin Investors Have Continued To Dump At A Loss For A Month Now

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC SOPR shows that holders are currently selling at a loss.

The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (or SOPR in short) is an indicator that tells us whether coins moved on a given day were sold at a profit or a loss.

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The metric measures so by looking at each coin on the chain and checking what the price the coin was last moved at. After that, the indicator calculates the ratio between this price and the current price.

When the value of the indicator is above one, it means that holders are currently selling, on an average, at a profit.

On the other hand, when the SOPR has values less than one, it implies investors are moving their Bitcoin at a loss overall.

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Finally, there is the case when the value of the indicator is exactly equal to one. During such a period, the market is breaking even on BTC sales.

Related Reading | Is The Bitcoin Hashrate Recovering From Kazakhstan’s Crisis? Fear Abides

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the value of the Bitcoin SOPR over the past year:

Bitcoin SOPR

Looks like the value of the indicator has stayed below one recently | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin SOPR currently has a value less than one, which means holders are selling at a loss.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Open Interest Continues To Rise, Short Squeeze Incoming?

Such a trend has been there for a month now. A similar situation was there after the May 2021 crash where the indicator stayed below one for a prolonged period of time.

It’s possible that the current trend of low SOPR values will continue for a while, just like back then. The period around May-June was marked by a mini-bear market, and so if the trend does repeat, a similar bear environment could follow in the near future.

BTC Price

Yesterday, Bitcoin’s price briefly declined below the $40k mark, but since then has jumped back up. At the time of writing, the price of the coin floats around $41.7k, down 10% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 13% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of BTC over the last five days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC's price has continued to move sideways above $40k in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Shakeout Or Top? Here’s What Bitcoin SOPR Says About It

Bitcoin price has now declined to $56k; does that mean a top is in? Or is this just a shakeout? Here’s what the SOPR indicator says about it.

The Bitcoin SOPR Indicator

The BTC Spent Output Profit Ratio (or SOPR in short) is an on-chain indicator that estimates whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss.

When the metric’s value is above one, it means coins that were moved during the period were sold, on an average, at a profit.

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While SOPR values less than one imply the overall market has been selling at a loss during the particular timescale.

If the indicator starts trending up, it could mean holders are now realizing their profits and a correction could soon be coming.

On the other hand, a downwards trend implies sellers are moving their coins at a loss, and holders with profitable coins may be sitting on to them in hopes of further price appreciation.

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Related Reading | Bitcoin MVRV Shows Top Isn’t In Yet, BTC Still Has Room To Grow

What Does The Indicator Tell Us About Tops And Shakeouts?

An analyst has created a chart in a CryptoQuant post that highlights the trend in the value of the indictor over the past year and a half.

Bitcoin SOPR

The trend of the SOPR during the early 2021 run versus now | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see, above are the graphs for a few different versions of the indicator. The STH SOPR and LTH SOPR metrics show whether short-term and long-term holders, respectively, are taking profits or not.

The separation between the two types of holders is done on the basis of coin age. Coins that haven’t been moved since 155 days fall into the LTH category. Anything below that is in the STH territory.

Now, looking at the above chart, it seems like all the Bitcoin SOPR metrics had high values when the early 2021 top formed.

Related Reading | Inflation fears sparks Bitcoin rally before Taproot – Crypto Roundup, Nov 15, 2021

But before the run started, there was a period where the STH SOPR shot up and the other indicators also increased in value. However, there was no top formation here as it was only a pre-bull run shakeout.

A trend similar to that seems to be visible in the current time period. The STH SOPR is high right now, but long-term holders don’t seem to be realizing that much profits.

This fact makes the analyst believe that the latest decline in Bitcoin’s price was possibly just a shakeout, and not a top formation.

Here is a chart that shows the current trend in BTC’s price:

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC's price continues to plunge down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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On-Chain Data Shows Bitcoin Investors Don’t Want To Sell At This Level

According to on-chain data, Bitcoin SOPR is still assuming flat values, indicating that investors are likely to not be willing to sell at this level.

Bitcoin SOPR Stagnates, Despite Huge Rise In The Crypto’s Price

As per a post from CryptoQuant, while Bitcoin’s price shows a sharp improvement as the coin reaches $55k for the first time since May, the SOPR is still showing a flattened line.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR in short, is a BTC indicator that shows the profit ratio of the whole market. It does so by looking at the chain transactions and comparing the price at which a purchase transaction happened and the price at which those same coins were sold.

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When the value of this indicator is greater than 1, it means the coins moved in the specified timescale are on an average selling at a profit.

Contrary to that, SOPR values below 1 would suggest BTC transacted in the period sold at a loss on average. While a value of exactly one would mean sellers are just breaking even.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Inflows Shows Institutional Investors Are Back On The Bull Train

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Now, here is a chart showing the trend in this indicator for BTC:

Bitcoin SOPR

Bitcoin SOPR


Bitcoin's SOPR seems to have flattened recently | Source: CryptoQuant

When the indicator shows a rising value, it means investors have started realizing their profits by selling off their coins.

A decreasing value, on the other hand, would mean holders are dumping their coins at a loss, probably because they have no confidence left in the crypto.

Related Reading | Whales Moving Coins Hints At Bitcoin Maturity As Macro Asset

As the above graph shows, SOPR values have neither been decreasing nor increasing lately. The curve for the indicator is just a flat line right now.

This is despite Bitcoin’s recent big move up, where usually some investors would start harvesting their profits, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this time.

Such a trend may be because the majority of holders think the price of the coin will appreciate even further so they aren’t moving around their crypto just yet.

This unwillingness of the investors to sell their Bitcoin can end up proving to be quite bullish for the cryptocurrency. Though, when holders do start taking their profits, that’s likely when a correction could hit.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $53.7k, up 25% in the last seven days. Over the past thirty days, the coin has surged up 12% in value.

The below chart highlights the trend in BTC’s price over the last five days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Bitcoin Price Chart


Bitcoin's big rise took it to as high as $55.5k, though since then the price has moved rather sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 26,911.21 0.53%
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Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 234.47 1.51%