Understanding ETH/BTC Rate – Key Factors and Price Predictions

According to CME Group report, the two dominant cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), make up over 61% of the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies. The connection between these two cryptoassets has been especially strong since the introduction of BTC futures in December 2017, circling around +0.85 during the last year. 

When compared to the USD, these cryptocurrencies exhibit high volatility. BTC’s daily price volatility during the last year was 42% annualized, compared to ETH’s daily volatility of around 59%. This shows that ETH tends to climb more when BTC rises, and vice versa. 

It’s noteworthy to note that the volatility of the ETH/BTC (ETH-BTC) exchange rate is lower than that of either BTC or ETH alone. This has been the situation ever since BTC futures were introduced in late 2017. The volatility of ETH-BTC has decreased to 30% during the last year, which is around one-fourth less than that of BTC-USD and nearly half that of ETH-USD.

The ETH-BTC exchange rate has very little sway on changes in interest rates, gold prices, or crude oil futures. However, it has shown a greater interest in the future of the USD and technology stocks. Since May 2022, the one-year rolling correlation of ETH-BTC with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has been consistently around +0.2, suggesting a modest but persistent positive correlation. 

The distinct sentiments of ETH and BTC can be attributed to their distinct applications and market supply methodologies. ETH’s market capitalization stood at $224 billion on July 11, 2023, while BTC’s was substantially higher at $550 billion.

ETH switched to a less energy-intensive proof of stake (PoS) paradigm in 2022, whereas BTC uses an energy-intensive proof of work (PoW) system. The maximum supply of Bitcoin is 21 million coins, with 19,4 million currently in circulation. In contrast, the total supply of ETH is theoretically unlimited, with the potential to mint up to 18 million new coins per year.

The mining of new ETH coins has begun to decrease since the implementation of the PoS system. The creation of new BTC coins has continued at an annual rate of 335,000. At the next halving event, which is anticipated to occur in April 2024, the BTC supply is expected to be halved.

BTC’s quadrennial halvings in 2010, 2014, and 2018 coincided with huge runups in price prior to the reduction in BTC supply growth, followed by enormous bear markets. Going into the three previous halvings, the amount of revenue that miners demand for validating transactions on the bitcoin blockchain has tended to spike, followed by tremendous declines in bitcoin prices of between 70% and 93%.

Looking ahead, if BTC rallies ahead of its upcoming April 2024 halving as it did ahead of previous halvings, that might also help ETH prices to rise even further on a relative basis. However, these possibilities are far from certain. 

In conclusion, the Ether-Bitcoin price nexus is influenced by a variety of factors, including the supply mechanisms of both cryptocurrencies, their correlation with technology stocks and the USD, and macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and monetary policy. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, these dynamics will be crucial to watch.

Image source: Shutterstock


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Bitcoin Retreats to Around $30k: Decoding the Technical Indicators and Regulatory Factors

In today’s market developments, Bitcoin has retracted to around $30k, weighed down by various technical factors and a series of recent regulatory interventions.

Techinical analysis

  • An initially strong Bitcoin rally has given way to resistance, largely due to the continued downward trend of the monthly Bollinger Bands’ midline. In June, this midline stood at 31409, with Bitcoin reaching a short-term peak of 31432 on June 23rd.
  • This surge on June 23rd also demonstrated an evident bearish divergence in Bitcoin’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) on the 4-hour chart. Such a pattern is often a harbinger of a significant imminent adjustment.
  • On the 1-hour chart, a clear double top pattern has further underscored the downtrend.
  • Currently, market-watchers’ focus is trained on the Bollinger Bands’ midline on the daily chart. This could potentially create a support level at 29500, paving the way for market consolidation around this figure.

News analysis

Regulatory news, a vital external factor, is exerting pressure on Bitcoin’s value as well. Binance Australia is currently grappling with an investigation, while Danish bank Saxo Bank has received instructions from regulatory authorities to divest its cryptocurrency holdings and discontinue its cryptocurrency services.

These regulatory actions serve as a reminder of the persistent volatility in the world of cryptocurrencies. As Bitcoin continues to navigate this precarious landscape, it’s crucial for investors to stay informed and vigilant. While the potential for high returns remains, it’s accompanied by substantial risk and uncertainty.


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Chinese Media Criticizes OKEx for Illegal Advertisements as Bitcoin Surges Above $30K

On June 27th, the Chinese media outlet Beijing Business Daily published an article titled “Bitcoin’s Soaring Market Triggers Illegal Speculation Activities, OKX Resorts to ‘Indirect’ Marketing.”

Beijing Business Daily reporters noticed a resurgence in speculative activities related to virtual currency trading, following Bitcoin price climbing above the $30,000 mark.

The reporters observed that platforms such as OKX were running advertisements on certain cryptocurrency websites, offering “free Bitcoin upon registration.” Upon investigating further, the reporters found that clicking on the ad would redirect them to Okex’s trading platform. Users could register an account and undergo identity verification to proceed with purchasing cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. However, as of the time of reporting, the advertisement had been taken down.

Apart from illicit marketing activities by exchanges, scams and illegal fundraising schemes disguised as virtual currency ventures continue to proliferate. In response to this, the People’s Bank of China recently issued warnings titled “Beware of Risks Related to NFTs and Metaverse Speculation” and “Say No to Illegal Financial Activities in Virtual Currency (crypto or digital asset) Trading Speculation.” Analysts believe that consumers must remain vigilant, enhance risk prevention awareness, and actively steer clear of speculative activities such as virtual currency trading to avoid falling into related illegal and criminal traps.


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Largest Weekly Inflows in Digital Assets in Over a Year, Led by Bitcoin

In a significant shift of sentiment, digital asset investment products experienced their largest single weekly inflows since July 2022, totaling a substantial $199 million, according to CoinShares report. This surge effectively corrected almost half of the prior nine consecutive weeks of outflows, signaling renewed investor confidence in the market.

Bitcoin emerged as the primary beneficiary, capturing a staggering $187 million in inflows last week, which accounted for an impressive 94% of the total funds. This surge in Bitcoin investment comes amidst one of the largest price surges in recent times, as the cryptocurrency experienced a remarkable 20% increase over the course of the week.

Conversely, short-bitcoin products continued to face outflows for the ninth consecutive week, with a total of $4.9 million withdrawn.

However, this positive sentiment did not extend to altcoins, as they only witnessed minor inflows. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, attracted $7.8 million in inflows. Although this figure represented a mere 0.1% of assets under management (AuM) compared to Bitcoin’s 0.7% inflows, it indicated a relatively lower appetite for Ethereum in the current market.

The positive market shift was primarily attributed to recent announcements made by high-profile exchange-traded product (ETP) issuers. These issuers have filed applications for physically backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, generating renewed optimism among investors.

The total assets under management (AuM) for digital asset investment products now stand at an impressive $37 billion, reaching their highest point since before the collapse of 3 Arrows Capital.

While Bitcoin experienced significant inflows, outflows persisted for short-bitcoin products. Over the course of the past nine weeks, outflows accounted for 60% of the total AuM, further highlighting the divergence in investor sentiment.

Other altcoins, including XRP and Solana, saw only marginal inflows of $0.24 million and $0.17 million, respectively. However, the improved market sentiment did encourage some investors to explore multi-asset investment ETPs, resulting in $8 million in inflows during the previous week.

Overall, the surge in inflows into digital asset investment products, particularly Bitcoin, suggests a growing confidence among investors, possibly driven by the anticipation of new physically backed ETFs in the US market. While altcoins have yet to witness a substantial boost, the market remains dynamic, and investor preferences may shift as new opportunities emerge.


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Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Steady, Bitcoin Responds with Significant Fluctuations

According to a post on social media by Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter, Federal Reserve officials has agreed to keep interest rates unchanged following 10 consecutive hikes. However, the Federal Reserve hinted that they may consider a rate hike next month if the economy and inflation don’t show further signs of cooling down.

Following a two-day policy meeting, the majority of Fed members predict that there will be two more rate hikes this year. The forecast for economic growth and inflation was also raised in the economic prediction released on Wednesday.

The news from the Federal Reserve meeting had a noticeable impact on bitcoin price. The value of the cryptocurrency experienced significant fluctuations, peaking at 26,100 and bottoming out around 25,750 within minutes of the announcement. The correlation between the Federal Reserve’s policy changes and cryptocurrency market reactions highlights the interconnectedness of traditional and digital economies. The upcoming actions of the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly be closely watched by both investors and market analysts.


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Bitcoin Price Aanlysis: Key Technical indicators to watch

Key Technical indicators to watch

In our previous analysis, we observed that both the major support and resistance levels remain operative. Presently, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase in the short term.

Taking a look at the 4-hour chart, we can note that Bitcoin has been on a downward trajectory since its peak at $31,000. The 55-period moving average constitutes a key resistance level, currently pegged at $27,042.

Source: Tradingview

Turning our focus to the daily chart, we find that the 89-period moving average stands as the principal support level, situated currently at $26,780. 

Impending Altcoin Season

The BTC dominance chart presents an intriguing scenario – it appears to be forming a diamond top pattern. This pattern typically indicates an imminent, significant downtrend. In layman’s terms, we can infer that altcoins, especially those paired with Bitcoin like ADA/BTC and LINK/BTC, may outperform Bitcoin in the near future.

Source: Tradingview


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Navigating Between Key Support and Resistance Levels

Bitcoin has just breached the 27,000 level, currently portraying a considerably weak trend.

The 89-day moving average serves as a crucial support level, warranting close monitoring. On March 10, Bitcoin dropped to the 89-day moving average, triggering a rebound exceeding 50%. Last Friday, following a dip below the 89-day moving average, Bitcoin promptly initiated a rebound, peaking at 27,650. Currently, Bitcoin continues to consolidate above the vicinity of the 89-day moving average. A significant breakdown below the 89-day moving average without a subsequent recovery may potentially ignite a new round of substantial decline.

From the 4-hour chart perspective, Bitcoin is navigating a downtrend channel. Post-rebound, Bitcoin failed to breach the recent high of 28,290, indicating the downward trend remains unbroken. 

As per the 4-hour chart, the recent rebound also exhibits factors of RSI and MACD bullish divergence. Currently, the 55-period line on the 4-hour chart is a conspicuous resistance level. Bitcoin needs to surpass this 55-period line on the 4-hour timeframe to possibly initiate a further upward surge.

Prior to the emergence of a clear direction, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate within the box defined by the 89-day moving average support line and the 55-period resistance line on the 4-hour chart.

Please note that the data and indicators mentioned are based on the Bitcoin price chart from Binance.


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Grayscale CEO challenges SEC’s denial of application

Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of Grayscale Investments, stated in a recent interview that he “can’t imagine” why the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) “wouldn’t want” to protect Grayscale investors and return the true asset value to them. Sonnenshein made this statement in response to a question regarding why the SEC “wouldn’t want” to protect Grayscale investors.

Sonnenshein explained that the SEC “violated the administrative procedures act” by denying approval for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to be a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), in June 2022, during an interview that took place on February 25 on What Bitcoin Did, a popular podcast that is hosted by Peter McCormack. The podcast is called What Bitcoin Did.

He stated that this act ensures that the regulator does not show “favoritism” or act “arbitrarily,” adding that the SEC acted “arbitrarily” by approving Bitcoin Futures ETFs while rejecting “GBTC’s conversion.” He explained that this act ensures that the regulator does not show “favoritism” or act “arbitrarily.”

Grayscale Investments saw the SEC’s approval of the first Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as “a indication” that the SEC was “changing its approach about Bitcoin,” according to Sonnenshein’s observation.

He stated that there is a “couple billion dollars” of capital that would immediately go back into investors’ pockets, on a “overnight basis,” if GBTC was approved as a spot Bitcoin ETF, and that this capital would “bleed back” up to the fund’s net asset value. He said this would occur if the fund was approved as a spot Bitcoin ETF (NAV).

Sonnenshein noted that this is because GBTC is now trading at a discount to its NAV. However, if it were to convert to an ETF, there would “no longer” be a discount or a premium; instead, there would be a “arbitraged mechanism” incorporated in the product.

He reaffirmed that Grayscale is now “suing the SEC now,” and that the company may have a ruling appealing the SEC’s rejection of its original application as early as “fall 2023.”

In addition to this, he said that Grayscale has more than “a million investor accounts,” and that investors from all around the globe trust on the company to “do the right thing for them.”

Sonnenshein “can’t fathom” a scenario in which the SEC would have no interest in “protecting investors” or “returning that value” to those investors.

He continued by saying that Grayscale isn’t going “to shy” away from the fact that it has a “commercial interest” in this approval, noting that if the application to challenge the SEC is denied, Grayscale may be able to appeal the case to the United States Supreme Court. He said that Grayscale isn’t going “to shy” away from the fact that it has a “commercial interest” in this approval.

This comes as a result of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing a 73-page brief with the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia in December 2022, outlining its reasons for denying Grayscale’s request to convert its $12 billion Bitcoin Trust into a spot-based Bitcoin ETF in June 2022. The brief was submitted in response to Grayscale’s request to convert its Bitcoin Trust into a spot-based Bitcoin ETF.

The conclusions that Grayscale’s approach did not adequately safeguard against fraud and manipulation were the primary considerations that led to the SEC’s determination.

The regulator has arrived at a same conclusion in a number of past applications for the creation of spot-based Bitcoin ETFs.


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Block’s Cash App Bitcoin Revenue Falls 7%

The Cash App business section of Jack Dorsey’s payment startup, Block Inc., reported Bitcoin (BTC) revenue of $1.83 billion in the fourth quarter, which is a 7% decrease from the same period last year.

Block attributed the reduction in Bitcoin income to the decline in the price of BTC during the year, which was reported in its quarterly and full-year results on February 23. Bitcoin’s price dropped by nearly 65 percent throughout the course of 2022.

Due to the decrease in sales, Cash App’s Bitcoin gross profit decreased by 25% year-on-year, coming in at $35 million for the quarter. This was the lowest quarterly total since the company began reporting Bitcoin earnings.

Block’s Cash App is an application for processing payments made using mobile phones. On October 25th, functionality for transactions made via the Bitcoin Lightning Network was enabled to Cash App. It does this by offering Bitcoin sales to its consumers via the app, which brings in money.

In the entire year of 2022, Cash App made $7.11 billion in Bitcoin revenue and $156 million in Bitcoin gross profit, representing decreases of 29% and 28%, respectively, when compared to 2021’s figures.

In the meanwhile, Block Inc. reported a significantly increased net loss for the quarter, coming in at $114 million. This is compared to a loss of $77 million in 2021. When compared to the same period of the previous year, its adjusted profits before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose to $281 million, or a 53% rise. The aggregate amount of revenue during the period was $4.65 billion.

Following the release of the results report, the after-hours trading of Block’s shares resulted in a significant price increase.

The increase in the company’s gross profit, which was up 40% in Q4 compared to the same period the previous year and also above expert estimates, has been ascribed by some analysts to the surge in revenue.


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Bitcoin Flips Visa Again

Since the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 48%, which has caused its market valuation to once again surpass that of the payment processing behemoth Visa.

According to CoinMarketCap, with the price of Bitcoin sitting at $24,365 at the moment, its market size of $470.16 billion is now only slightly more than that of Visa, which has a market cap of $469.87 billion at the moment.

Companies Market Cap reports that this is the third time Bitcoin has “flipped” Visa’s market cap, meaning that Bitcoin’s value has exceeded Visa’s value.

The first occasion was in late December 2020, coincidentally coinciding with the first time that BTC reached $25,000 in value.

This was accomplished during a price rise that saw BTC climb from $10,200 in September 2020 to $63,170 seven months later in April 2021. The price increase lasted for seven months.

BTC was able to take the lead over Visa for a very short period of time on October 1 before the payments business was able to reclaim their position as the market leader. Visa regained the lead between June and October 2022.

This advantage was further extended when, between November 6 and 10, 2022, the failure of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX took off more than $100 billion from the value of BTC in only four days.

However, since that time, BTC has had a complete recovery and has added an extra $65 billion to its market valuation of $408 billion as of November 6. This has allowed it to surpass the payment processing behemoth.

Because of the relatively tiny gap in their respective market caps, Bitcoin and Visa are now trading places on an hourly basis, which is something that should be taken into consideration.

Regarding the remarkable beginning that Bitcoin had in 2023, its third “flipping” of Visa occurred on the heels of a run of 14 days in a row during which the price increased. This run lasted from January 4 through January 17.

According to Google Finance, the market capitalization of Mastercard, the world’s second-largest payment processing network, is now $345.24 billion. BTC, on the other hand, has a significant lead over Mastercard.

However, Bitcoin is still trading at a discount of 63% compared to its all-time high of $69,044 that it hit on November 10th, 2021.


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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 28,328.59 4.45%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,717.79 2.18%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 67.43 0.88%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 249.90 6.10%