Gareth Soloway – chief market strategist at InTheMoneyStocks – is not impressed by bitcoin’s recent price increase. He argued that the primary cryptocurrency’s USD value would soon reach $50,000-52,000, but will eventually tumble to $18,000.
Would History Repeat Itself?
In a recent interview for Kitco News, Gareth Soloway – the President of InTheMoneyStocks – opined that bitcoin’s price would eventually experience a massive downturn. While he predicted that the digital asset would climb to a maximum of $52,000 in the short term, it would crash later to as low as $18,000.
“Bitcoin will eventually get to the $18,000 mark. There is really no question in my mind.”
Soloway – who is also a day trader – explained his forecast with past events. According to him, history would repeat itself just like it happened in 2013 and 2017 when bitcoin plunged after rallying significantly for a couple of months. However, things would be different if it manages to surpass its all-time high of $65,000.
It is worth noting that bitcoin’s institutional adoption and its dominance were not on their current levels back then. For example, Michael Saylor vowed not to sell any of his personal holdings or MicroStrategy’s more than 100,000 BTC coins, whatever the price. With that said, such a huge move south seems fairly unlikely.
Soloway scratched the topic about gold, too. He categorized it as the better asset than bitcoin. Despite having price corrections occasionally, the precious metal would always be the most dominant financial instrument, he added.
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The top executive foresees that large corporations will start investing more and more in both bitcoin and gold to offset their dollar holdings and “basically protect the value of the dollar from the mass printing.”
Gareth Soloway, Source: YouTube
Different Point of Views
Bitcoin’s volatility and its future value have always been hot conversational topics among investors and analysts. While Soloway’s opinion is rather skeptical, many individuals shared entirely different predictions recently.
For example, Thomas Lee – a Managing Partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors – believes bitcoin and the market itself will skyrocket once the delta variant of COVID-19 passes its peak. He expects to see the primary cryptocurrency trading at around $100,000 in the upcoming months.
Interestingly, his recent forecast is very similar to the one she shared last year. Back then, Lee stated that bitcoin would be worth $120,000 by the end of 2021.
Another bullish opinion came from the American billionaire Tim Draper. He said that despite the volatility in the crypto market, the primary digital asset would hit $250,000 in one year time. Draper believes that numerous large corporations would follow the example of Microsoft, Starbucks, PayPal, Home Depot and accept bitcoin as a means of payment:
”Give it about a year and a half and retailers will all be on OpenNode [bitcoin payment processor], so everybody will accept bitcoin.”
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Looking ahead, there are many ways the rest of the current cycle can play out moving forward. The following are two scenarios we are expecting to play out as long as the technical and on-chain data continue to show strength.
Our price targets are heavily time-based, condition-based, and blend multiple forms of analysis. Assuming bitcoin price reaches major technical targets to the upside and on-chain metrics are flashing significant sell signals, the probability of a bull market top will increase significantly.
If major technical targets to the upside are tested, and on-chain metrics show little to no signs of significant selling pressure – the BTC can easily push higher.
As always – the following is not financial advice and the sole opinion of the writer. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the bottom of this page.
Base Case: $96k by December 2021
We believe BTC can reach $96k by December 2021 in our base case scenario. BTC will only have to double at current prices (~$48k as of writing these lines), which we believe is reasonable considering the deep supply exhaustion BTC is in.
To reach this level of $96k, BTC must first push above the major resistance zone between $51.1-58k.
During this retest of major resistance, it is crucial to monitor on-chain metrics and especially verify that long-term holders and entities holding large amounts of illiquid supply are not selling.
If no on-chain sell signals are flashing, this will likely pave the way for a retest of the current all-time high (~$65k) recorded in April 2021. The chart below shows a rough estimate of one of many paths BTC could take to reach our base case target of $96k.
Chart by TradingView.
Technical and on-chain resistance above $58k is not as heavy as the $56-58k area. Given that new large buyers continue to enter the market and shorts continue to get liquidated, breaking above the previous all-time high will not require much effort.
Once BTC closes above the current ATH level ($64.8k), we can expect an accelerated move to the upside as bitcoin price enters the price discovery phase. The latter stands for the levels where an asset was never trading before; hence, there are no previous resistance levels.
Using the 4-year cycle and BTC halving data, Bitcoin has historically reached its bull markets’ top late in Q4 of the year following the halving.
This indicates a blow-off top could occur sometime in December 2021, if BTC continues to follow this pattern. The longer than anticipated consolidation between $30k to $40k gives Bitcoin less time to form structure higher. Still, we have to keep in mind, huge parabolic runs may occur in a very short amount of time, just like the one that happened between January and April 2021 ($27k to $65k).
Another reason why we can expect significantly higher prices later this year is the Elliott Wave structure forming since late 2018. Bitcoin appears to have completed wave 3 to the upside, topping at $64.8k, with a complex wave 4 correction, bottoming at $28.8k. With the recent August rally higher, it appears Bitcoin is starting the final fifth bullish wave, possibly pushing bitcoin price significantly above previous all-time highs.
In this scenario, between the April-2021 all-time highs to our base case target of $96k, we expect whales to slowly distribute BTC to retails who are chasing the rally. The more we see on-chain distribution, the more likely BTC will come closer to a macro top.
The crypto community has discussed the probability of the bull market cycle extending into early Q1 or Q2, 2022. This must be taken into consideration and can be seen as a bullish catalyst. If the bull market extends into early 2022, this actually increases our base case target from $96k to the next confluent levels between $110k to $115k.
$178k BTC: The Bullish Case
We believe BTC can reach our bullish scenario target of $178k by December 2021 or a bit later, in case the cycle extends into 2022.
This will require minimal on-chain selling pressure, especially as bitcoin price pushes above $100k. As long as the long-term holders continue to hold, even with BTC at $100k, we can easily expect prices to move higher.
This scenario is dependent on the constant supply exhaustion, where the majority of BTC remains illiquid. The chart below is a rough estimate of the possible path Bitcoin could take to reach the bullish target. The following is just one of many ways this can play out:
Chart by TradingView.
Our technical targets to the upside found high levels of confluence around $178k to $190k. This also matches various other technical-based models, making this an area of interest for the 2021’s bull market top.
In this scenario, we can expect Bitcoin whales and entities holding large amounts of illiquid supply to start rapidly distributing. Price action at this stage will likely have gone parabolic, with $10K candles printed frequently. At these prices, valuation on-chain metrics such as the MVRV could be reaching previous cycle peaks depending on the activity on the Bitcoin network.
While these 6-figure targets may seem intimidating, they are less than a 4x increase from current levels.
To emphasize this, the scenarios are time-based and condition-based. It strongly depends on a variety of on-chain metrics flashing warning signals, especially when the bitcoin price reaches highly confluent technical targets to the upside.
At the time of this writing, BTC is currently aiming to validate a major technical buy signal which flashed last week, to transition from a mid-cycle pullback into a bull market continuation.
Ideally, the $51.1-58k resistance zone must be taken out with a solid push to retest all-time highs at $64.8k. The next few weeks of price action are critical in determining the base case or bull case scenario.
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In a somewhat surprising turn of events, the full-time bitcoin critique Peter Schiff acknowledged that BTC’s price could have another impressive leg up by reaching $100,000.
In a recent interview with Coin Stories, the ‘gold bug’ also touched upon his regrets about the cryptocurrency but ultimately remained as bearish as he ever was.
The Debate: Bitcoin Vs. Gold
Peter Schiff is known for many things – from calling the 2008 financial crisis to supporting gold on every occasion. But he’s famous within the cryptocurrency community as the ultimate basher, as he takes every opportunity to take a stab at BTC and the altcoins.
While speaking to Natalie Brunell from Coin Stories, the gold bug didn’t shy away from repeating his negative stance on bitcoin. For example, he refuted the belief that the asset will ever be employed as a means of payment by the mass population, which is bitcoin’s ultimate goal, according to the whitepaper.
After referring to AMC Entertainment’s recent decision to accept BTC as a payment tool, Schiff argued that even bitcoin proponents, like Anthony Pompliano, don’t believe anyone would ever want to spend their holdings for tickets or popcorn.
Additionally, the economist said no landlord will decide to accept BTC for rent, as its price goes up and down with massive proportions. As such, he believes bitcoin’s only merit is for people to speculate on it.
Instead, gold could have multiple purposes – from being used for medals on Olympic games to electronics and even in space. Its historical usage as a means of payment is also another benefit that differentiates it from bitcoin, Schiff argued.
Peter Schiff. Source: Yahoo
Schiff Regrets Not Buying BTC as it Could Go to $100K or $1M
Despite all the negative stuff Schiff had to say about bitcoin, and they were quite many, he couldn’t dispute the fact that the cryptocurrency has indeed been among the best performers in terms of USD price since its existence. In fact, it provided an ROI of 8,900,000% last decade and trumped the precious metal by a massive margin.
Keeping this in mind, the economist, somewhat reluctantly, had to admit that he should have bought some portions of the asset when he first heard about it in 2011. On a question about his financial regrets, Schiff said:
“Clearly, I wish I had bought bitcoin when I first heard about it – that was a keen mistake. Could have I put $100,000 in it – yeah, I could have. I mean, I put $100,000 in other things that turned out poorly.
I could have been one of the bitcoin billionaires now, as obviously I knew about it early on. If I could go back in time, that’s one of the things I would do.”
Furthermore, Schiff also spoke about BTC’s potential price increases. He admitted that it’s entirely possible that it could go as high as $100,000 or even $1,000,000 per coin. However, he made it clear that the expanding price tag doesn’t mean that bitcoin is less of a bubble.
In fact, he asserted that BTC could become such an enormous bubble that it would replace the term “Ponzi scheme.”
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The British YouTuber and rapper – KSI – revealed that he is a strong supporter of Bitcoin. According to him, the primary cryptocurrency represents the future, and hodlers would profit in the next years.
‘I’m Really into Crypto’
Olajide Olayinka Williams “JJ” Olatunji, better known as KSI – meaning Knowledge, Strength, and Integrity – opined strongly in favor of Bitcoin recently. Speaking to the British magazine GQ, he argued that the digital asset would play a major role in the future of finance. KSI went even further, stating that if he were the prime minister, he would distribute £100 worth of BTC to every UK citizen:
“I’d give everyone £100 worth of Bitcoin – like a Bitcoin stimulus package for all. I’m really into crypto. I think Bitcoin is the future. “
The 29-year-old rapper and YouTube star believes that the primary virtual currency is the right investment instrument for the long term. According to him, people who have allocated some of their wealth in it would “be laughing” in 10 years:
“It’s definitely going to be long-term, but in ten years’ time, people who invested will be laughing. I feel like a lot of people are not really seeing that: they’re trying to look for quick money like, ‘Oh, I want to get in and out.’ This is a long-haul thing and I’m here for the journey.”
Subsequently, KSI compared BTC to fiat money and gave his preference to the virtual asset. He reminded that while traditional currencies are inflationary, bitcoin’s amount is set, and “that has value.”
KSI. Source: MusicWeek
Other Rap Stars Who Are Keen on Digital Assets
Another popular rap singer who declared his support towards cryptocurrencies is DeAndre Cortez Way, better known as Soulja Boy. The performer who created a song named “Bitcoin” back in 2018 initiated a Twitter conversation at the beginning of 2021 with prominent individuals and hinted that he could explore launching his own digital asset.
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Notable names such as Changpeng Zhao (Binance CEO) and Tyler Winklevoss (Gemini co-founder) were quick to advertise their products to the rapper.
In his turn, the Hip Hop legend Eminem joined the NFT craze by dropping his own collection. The 15-time Grammy award winner Marshall Bruce Mathers III – globally known by his stage name Eminem – partnered with the platform Nifty Gateway to announce the digital set, dubbed Shady Con.
Just a few weeks ago, Trevor George Smith Jr. – popular among his fans as Busta Rhymes – revealed to his nearly 4 million Twitter followers that he is a Bitcoin HODLer. He explained that the main reason to join the BTC bandwagon was the recent conversation between Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood at The B Word Event.
Featured Image Courtesy of BBC
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PlanB, a quantitative Bitcoin analyst and the creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) model, is still very much bullish about the future of the leading cryptocurrency.
The drop in bitcoin’s price within the last three months has raised many questions among crypto traders and analysts on whether or not the bull market is still intact. However, PlanB is unconcerned about the current market trends, and he is looking ahead to what’s to come.
For clarity, the stock-to-flow model uses multiple variables like bitcoin’s production, supply, and evolution to predict the price of the cryptocurrency.
PlanB: Bitcoin Price at $5M is a Real Possibility
In a recent interview with Scott Melker, popularly known as The Wolf Of All Streets, the S2F model creator gave reasons why he believes bitcoin will trade as high as $5 million per coin in years to come.
According to him, retracements are a normal cycle for the king coin, and the ATH of one year could be reached in another. But PlanB believes the years after the next Bitcoin halving will be much more interesting for the cryptocurrency than the next two years.
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“Maybe that all-time high could be reached this year and the low the year after in 2022 but after that there will be another halving in 2024. So 2025 and the years after that will be actually much much more interesting than the next two years. And yes, the S2F models predict prices ranging from $1 million (for the normal stock flow model) to 5 million (for the stock flow x model),” PlanB explained.
PlanB Says He’s Not Selling
Bitcoin has a long way to go if it will ever reach the S2F model price target of $5 million. Although the model previously predicted that the cryptocurrency would trade at $100,000 by August this year and possibly $288,000 by the end of 2021, PlanB said he is more interested in the long ride to the million-dollar price levels.
According to him, he will hold on to his bitcoin bags and will only sell small, if need be, to survive the bear market.
“My eyes are, by the way, on those price levels ($1m to $5m) more than on the $100k to $288k so I’m not selling. Maybe some to just survive the bear market but yeah,” he said.
Meanwhile, as many continue to wonder if the 2021 bull run is over, PlanB recently predicted that $64,000 was not the top for bitcoin. According to the quantitative analyst, on-chain data and his floor indicator show that the crypto asset will not trade below $47,000 by the end of August.
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The global CIO of Guggenheim Partners – Scott Minerd – forecasted that BTC’s dollar value could plunge to $15,000. He added that he does not plan to invest in the crypto market “any time soon” as its current situation is quite uncertain.
‘We Are Going to End Up at $15,000’
In a recent interview for Bloomberg, Scott Minerd – the global chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners – outlined a rather skeptical forecast for Bitcoin’s price. The top executive warned that the crypto market has been very volatile lately, and BTC’s yesterday drop to about $29,500 would not be the bottom of it:
“The support level is really being tested hard. The breakdown of around $29,500 could be a false breakdown but I don’t think so. I think that there is more air to come out of this and ultimately something in the neighborhood of $15,000 is where we are going to end up.”
Minerd believes there are plenty of new coins that already started to compete with the primary cryptocurrency. According to him, those factors would determine its “downside.”
The top executive revealed he has no plans to invest in BTC “any time soon.” However, he did not reject the option completely as he would watch the price action closely and eventually change his stance.
Scott Minerd. Source: CNBC
Scott Minerd And His Previous Predictions
By the time when BTC’s price reached its ATH in April, Guggenheim Partners’ CIO envisioned a significantly higher future price tag of up to $600,000 for the primary cryptocurrency in the next few years. However, Minerd predicted that the asset would pass through a major correction before reaching the number.
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In May, though, he changed his stance on the cryptocurrency market completely and compared it to the “Tulipmania” in the 17th century:
“Crypto has proven to be Tulipmania. As prices rise, tulip bulbs and cryptocurrencies multiply until supply swamps demand at previous market-clearing prices.”
His comments met hard resistance by numerous prominent investors. For example, Robert Leshner – Founder of Compound Finance – pointed out that the statement was inaccurate and economically logical:
“Scott is dead wrong, bordering on financial malpractice. The supply of cryptocurrencies and crypto-assets does not increase as a function of price. That’s like saying the supply of stocks increases, as demand does.”
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The Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic created by Richard D. Wyckoff has become a widely discussed and controversial topic among crypto traders lately due to Bitcoin’s positioning. With that in mind, it’s worth exploring this key feature, what it means for the asset and how it could impact its future developments.
What is the Wyckoff Accumulation?
The Wyckoff Accumulation forms when a particular asset, in our case Bitcoin, enters a period of consolidation with multiple drawdowns in a trading range.
This is intended by larger players to “shake out” weak hands in the market and, at the same time, create an opportunity to accumulate considerable positions while the price is low. Trading volume usually decreases as price consolidates. This indicates that supply is being exhausted, which weakens selling pressure.
Once the consolidation completes, the larger traders determine that the supply has been exhausted. At this point, the price will be ready to go up, leading to a breakout to the upside.
The Wyckoff Accumulation consists of multiple phases and, as mentioned above, is heavily influenced by Supply/Demand, Buying Test Requirements, and Effort/Result Principles. Supply/Demand is simply the balance between buyers and sellers.
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Wyckoff Accumulation, Bitcoin. July 2021. Chart by TradingView
When there is higher Supply than Demand, prices drop, and vice-versa. Buying Test Requirements – these are the specific parts of each phase aiming to “test” the market for supply. Effort/Result measures the severity of reactions in price movement and volume.
Phase A – Selling Climax
The first phase is a significant leg down, followed by a high trading volume. This shows that both Effort (volume) and Result (price) are in harmony.
The steep sell-off means that at the moment, the supply was much higher than the demand. As we know, this was the massive Long Liquidation as exchanges flushed out over-leveraged positions.
After the first leg down, the price transitions to an Automatic Rally, which is a temporary reversal due to an extreme supply and demand imbalance.
The next part of Phase A is the Secondary Test. This is where the price falls again, but with significantly less volume than during the Selling Climax. In this case, it took less Effort (volume) for a lower Result (price). This is an early indication of supply exhaustion in the market.
Phase B – the Secondary Test
On Phase B, the price continues to consolidate with a pullback. This is where larger players test the market for supply.
In the chart below, BTC’s price fell to as low as 31,000, but with less volume than the previous nosedives, which is a positive signal and can indicate early signs of supply exhaustion. The price then rallies back up to continue the trading range.
Phase C – Spring and Test
This phase is where larger players intentionally sell to sharply drive down the price, pushing weak hands to act in panic and dispose of their assets at low prices.
Usually, the traders will briefly drive prices below the trading range and send them back up as they start buying substantial supply amounts.
During the Spring, the price falls, but not as much as the Selling Climax (phase A). More importantly, volume spikes, showing that large players are heavily accumulating and absorbing supply.
Spring, Phase C
The Test comes after the Spring, where large players ‘test’ the market for supply. Price is then pushed down to the lower part of the trading range to gauge supply on the market. If the price drops with less volume and support holds – this can be seen as a positive signal of further supply exhaustion.
Test, Phase C
Regarding Bitcoin, it formed the Test at a low of $30,100 (June 26th), followed by less volume than the Spring, and as can be seen below – held support and pushed higher.
After forming the Test at $30,100, BTC spiked further north to make a short-term Higher High at $36,600 (June 29th). The cryptocurrency then saw a short-term pullback and formed a Higher Low at $32,700 (July 1st-2nd). This pullback was followed by less aggregated volume, signaling supply exhaustion.
At the time of writing, according to the definition of each Wyckoff Phase and Principles explained, BTC appears to be in the latter half of Phase C.
This is a critical point in BTC’s consolidation as the price must hold support at $30.1K, the low of the Test.
Phase D and E
The next phases will be reached once the larger players have determined supply has been exhausted after a series of Tests.
The signal is declining volume throughout the trading range and particularly decreasing volume with each pullback. If BTC can push above $36,600, then the current structure will require BTC to rally up to $40,000 and then have a short-term pullback to form the Last Point of Support. After that, it will start another strong rally aiming at $43,000, consolidate, and then go significantly higher.
Risks and How this Structure can be Invalidated
There is no such thing as 100% certainty in the markets, and especially in on-chain analysis. In general, it comes down to probabilities.
If BTC makes a daily close below the near-term higher low at $32,700, the short-term downside risk will increase. The current Test at $30,100 from June 26th is the critical level to watch.
A Higher Low, in this case, is defined as a pullback to any level above $30,100. Some view the recent sell-off to $28,800 (June 22nd) as the Secondary Test in Phase B, which is possible, but it will require BTC to drop below $28,800 to validate that call.
Bullish Technicals and On-chain
The technicals are showing bullish divergence on the daily chart, with momentum slowly trending higher. Key Moving Averages are flattening, with volume decreasing within each pullback.
This makes the perfect setup favorable for a breakout to the upside. Notably, on-chain metrics remain very bullish, showing strong net outflows from exchanges.
The latter indicates substantial accumulation by long-term holders, low funding rate, low stablecoin supply ratio, increasing open interest, and robust network user growth.
On-chain analysis has also confirmed an uptick in BTC whale activity, with an increase of 60,000 BTC purchased in one day to start July. These are all positive signals for BTC.
Conclusion
BTC appears to be following the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic and has shown precise price action for each phase by definition. If it holds $32,700 on the daily and pushes above $36,600 to form another Higher High, this will be a very bullish signal.
If BTC fails to hold the Higher Low at $32,700, the risk of an extension of the Wyckoff Accumulation and lower prices will increase. With bullish technicals, bullish on-chain analysis, and price action accurately following the Wyckoff Accumulation, the probabilities favor the bulls.
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Nassim Nicolas Taleb was called Wall Street’s principal dissident by renowned journalist Malcolm Gladwell. Yet, he may well be dubbed Bitcoin’s principal dissident by whoever has enough academic authority to do so.
Once a vocal Bitcoin user and advocate, Black Swan author Nassim Taleb, recently became a harsh critic of cryptocurrencies, and published a paper this weekend explaining the reasons why he thinks Bitcoin fails as money, store of value, and even as a novel technology.
For Nassim Taleb Bitcoin Is Not Money… It Serves Little Purpose
Taleb began by questioning the possibility of Bitcoin turning into a global store of value any time soon:
It is also a reasoning error to claim that an innovation, bitcoin, can become the “new gold” ab ovo, when gold wasn’t decided to be so by fiat thanks to a white paper; it organically became the reserve ex-post, throughout centuries of competitive selection against other modes of storage, payment, and collectibles.
As a social science, economics explains that the conception of money depends fundamentally on a collective agreement. It can happen by force (as in the case of fiat money) or by the evolution of social interactions (as in gold). However, it takes a long time for society to change at a cultural level for both scenarios. To expect bitcoin to acomplish in decades what gold achieved in thousands of years seems improbable for the social sciences.
Similarly, Nassim Taleb questioned the role of bitcoin as money. One of the main functions of money is that it must be stable enough to serve as a unit of account, something that bitcoin at the moment cannot satisfy
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Source: nharshakumar.blogspot.com
Nassim Taleb explain that it would be hard to express economic interactions in terms of pure Bitcoin prices:
To be able to regularly buy goods denominated in bitcoin (that is, fixed in bitcoin, floating in U.S.$ or some other fiat currency), one must have an income that is fixed in bitcoin. Such an income must come from somewhere, say, an employer. For an employer to pay a salary fixed in bitcoin, she or he must be getting revenues fixed in bitcoin. Furthermore, for the vendor to offer a can of beer in fixed bitcoins, she or he must be paying for the raw material and have the overhead fixed in bitcoin. The same with a mismatch of assets and obligations on a balance sheet. All this requires a bitcoin-USD parity of low enough volatility to be tolerable and for variations to remain inconsequential.
In other words, when buying goods with Bitcoin, the parties are actually exchanging goods using the dollar as the underlying money. It is difficult to establish fixed prices in Bitcoin because the market does not have a global agreement on what its value is. This extreme volatility can ultimately lead to Bitcoin’s failure.
The Fallacies of Bitcoin
Nassim Taleb ends by explaining how some arguments of maximalists and theorists are nothing but fallacies.
First, he explains that it is false that Bitcoin is a product of libertarian design:
“The belief that bitcoin is an offshoot of libertarian and Austrian economics has not a shade of backing…
Libertarianism is fundamentally about the rule of law in place of the rule of regulation. It is not about the rule of rules -mechanistic, automated rules with irreversible outcomes …
Nor is libertarianism about total distrust.”
Secondly, he assures that it is false that Bitcoin is a safe haven. He confirms that instead of maintaining its value over time, “Bitcoin appears to respond to liquidity, exactly like other bubble items.”
In third place, he denies that BTC serves as a protection against oppressive regimes:
In the cyber world, connections are with people one has never met in real life; infiltration by government agents is extremely easy. By comparison, the mafia required a Sicilianlineage for “friends of ours” so they could do their own security clearance type of check. One never knows the degree of governmental surveillance and real capabilities.
The slogan “Escape government tyranny hence bitcoin” is similar to adverts extolling the health benefits of cigarette
The transparency of the blockchain, the reliance on the fiat system to access money, and the need to establish human connections aid governments in exercising oversight of bitcoin transactions.
And finally, he addressed what he calls the Fallacy of the Agency problem: Instead of relying on Central Banks and governments to be able to use money, a society utterly dependent on Bitcoin would be relatively dystopian and dependent in turn on large corporations and individuals who took advantage to acquire BTC in its early days:
One would have the illusion that, by being distributed, Bitcoin would be democratic and reduce the agency problem perceived to be present among civil servants and banks.
Unfortunately, there appears to be a worse agency problem: a collection of insiders holding on to what they think will be the world currency, so others would have to go to them later on for supply. They would be cumulatively earning trillions, with many billionaire “Hodlers”; compare with civil servants making lower middle-class wages. It is a wealth transfer to the cartel of early bitcoin adopters.
Twitter Arguments? Nah
Taleb ends the paper by saying that “great technology” doesn’t mean useful and argues that society is still “close to nothing with the blockchain.”
Such arguments are harsh for many BTC maximalists, and some could even try to prove them wrong. But beware! If you are among those adventurous bitcoiners always looking to debate, you better do it in the academic field! Mr. Taleb is not really a fan of Twitter drama:
Source: Twitter
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The American billionaire Tim Draper predicted that bitcoin’s value would reach $250,000 by the end of 2022. He further opined that the primary cryptocurrency would be the core of all financial activities for the next 20-30 years.
BTC Is The Future
Tim Draper – an American venture capital investor – shared with CNBC his bullish view on BTC’s future value. He forecasted that despite the volatility in the crypto market, the primary digital asset would hit $250,000 by the end of next year.
Additionally, Draper said numerous large companies would follow the example of Microsoft, Starbucks, PayPal, Home Depot and accept bitcoin as a means of payment:
”Give it about a year and a half and retailers will all be on Opennode [bitcoin payment processor], so everybody will accept bitcoin.”
The investor pointed out that only 21 million bitcoins can exist in circulation and this is another reason that will drive up its fiat value. He predicted that the asset could turn into the world’s main financial instrument, and it has the potential to become as dominant as giants like Microsoft and Amazon.
Draper is a renowned bitcoin HODLer but refused to answer the host’s question of how much he owns or whether he has located some of his funds in other cryptocurrencies.
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Additionally, the billionaire noted that Elon Musk is a ”brilliant man” but disagreed with his opinion on Dogecoin. Draper joined many other critics of the meme coin who think its only quality is to bring joy to the crypto community:
”There must be something to Dogecoin because it makes us all smile but no engineers are working on it.”
Tim Draper. Source: Yahoo
He Said It Again
It seems like Draper stands behind his words as he initially outlined such a price forecast at the beginning of 2020. However, the only difference is that back then, he claimed that BTC’s value would reach $250,000 in early 2023.
At the time, he revealed that the stock market is not that emerging anymore and intended to allocate his portfolio to the crypto market instead. Bitcoin will be the big player there, and even though it still has a long way to go, it will attract the attention of the masses due to its positive features:
”Bitcoin will be the currency of choice. Bitcoin is not as easy to move around, but eventually, it will be. Then you will have a choice, and you will say: “hey, do I want to pay the banks 2.5% to 4% every time I swipe my credit card, or do I want a currency that’s frictionless, open, transparent, global, and not tied to any political force.”
Featured Image Courtesy of TechCrunch
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Jan Tore Sanner – the Minister of Finance in Norway – opined that Bitcoin will see better days if it manages to solve its volatility issues. However, he advised investors to stay away from the current crypto market due to enhanced uncertainty.
Breakthrough for BTC
Contrary to the mostly negative comments coming from policymakers about Bitcoin’s merits, Norway’s Finance Minister – Jan Tore Sanner – surmised that the asset could overcome its instability and achieve a breakthrough in the long term:
”It is clear that there may be a development over time, whereby you will be able to get more stabilization mechanisms in the currencies that can lead to greater breakthroughs and upheavals in the slightly longer term.”
Despite his optimistic forecast, though, Sanner warned investors about the potential risks in the crypto market. He went further, advising people to avoid dealing with digital assets as of now:
”It’s not a market I would recommend consumers to enter.”
Jan Tore Sanner. Source: iTromso
Nevertheless, Sanner seems significantly more open-minded on the cryptocurrency, especially when compared with other policymakers. For example, Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey recently opined that people allocating funds in the cryptocurrency market need to be prepared to lose all of their money.
The British official argued that digital assets lack any ”intrinsic value.” Bailey also added that he is not a big fan of putting the words ”crypto” and ”currency” together as people should use other phrases such as ”crypto assets.”
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BTC Support Among Norway Ministers
CryptoPotato recently reported that the Norwegian Minister of Climate and Environment – Sveinung Rotevatn – openly praised Bitcoin and admitted that he is a HODLer.
The lawmaker did not reveal how much BTC he had, but described the asset as a ”well-suited store of value.”
”What might make Bitcoin so exciting is that it has some of the same properties. You can’t suddenly discover a ton of Bitcoin somewhere, giving one country huge reserves. It’s spread evenly, it grows slowly, but steadily, and has a finite supply… Therefore, it’s theoretically well-suited as a store of value.”
Rotevatn also touched upon the hot topic of BTC’s environmental issues. He highlighted that Norway is one of the greenest countries focusing on using primarily renewable energy. Furthermore, he believes gold mining and the banking system are much more harmful to nature as they consume significantly more energy than BTC mining.
Featured Image Courtesy of e24
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