JPMorgan Puts Bitcoin At $150,000 In The Long-Term, But What About Its ‘Fair Value’?

Bitcoin has been on another recovery trend since this past weekend. It has continued on this path which has seen its balance above $44K. For most, this is a low value given that the digital asset was at $69K a few months ago. However, for JPMorgan strategists, this is not the case. Even at the current price which bitcoin has struggled hard to attain, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes that BTC is still overvalued.

Bitcoin Fair Value Is 12% Less

In a recent research note from JPMorgan, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and others share thoughts around bitcoin. Even though the strategists are not particularly bearish on the digital asset, given their long-term outlook, they still believe that bitcoin is slightly overvalued. However, the value which Panigirtzoglou places BTC at is not that far from its current price, so it may be that bitcoin is following closely to what is expected.

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The team, led by Panigirtzoglou, places bitcoin’s ‘fair value’ at $38,000. The digital asset has since beaten this price point and left it in its rearview mirror, but the JPMorgan strategists say that this is where the asset should be trading at.

The strategists calculate the fair value of bitcoin using its volatility compared to that of gold. Currently, BTC’s volatility is roughly four times that of gold. However, when this volatility differential narrows to three times that of gold, the strategist explains that its fair value will then rise to $50,000.

“The biggest challenge for Bitcoin going forward is its volatility and the boom and bust cycles that hinder further institutional adoption,” the note read.

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Bitcoin price chart from

BTC gains $1K in hours | Source: BTCUSD on

Putting BTC At $150,000

JPMorgan has always held a more bullish outlook for bitcoin in the long-term compared to the short-term. Last year, the strategists had put the price of BTC in the long term at $146,000. This had come at a time when the bull rally was in full bloom. At the same time, the strategists had put the price of the digital asset at $73,000 in the short term, a price mark that the asset is yet to hit.

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This time around, the strategists have moved up their expectations for the digital asset. Despite the bearish short-term outlook, the market strategists believe that bitcoin will go as high as $150,000 in the future. They, however, did not provide a time frame for this, but they have previously said that they expect BTC to hit $73,000 in 2022.

Bitcoin has fluctuated between $43,000 and $44,000 in the past 24 hours. The asset fell as low as $43,600 in the early hours of Thursday but quickly picked back up, gaining over $1,000 in value in a matter of hours. It is currently trading at $44,631 at the time of this writing, up 2.36% in the last 24 hours.

Featured image from The Guardian, chart from


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The Fractal That Puts Bitcoin At $100,000 Before Year-End

Bitcoin has mostly consolidated beneath its all-time high from October. Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana have gone on to touch new all-time highs following the October rally but the same cannot be said for bitcoin.

BTC’s entrance into the new month has been unremarkable so far. The digital asset has mainly maintained its value above $61,000 despite wavering momentum. However, a flash crash on Wednesday put the digital asset at $60,000 for the first time since its October ATH.

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The next big target for BTC has been the $100K mark by the end of the year. Various analyses have been put forward that places the digital asset at this price in December. None have come as close as this fractal from 2017 that sees BTC hitting the $100K mark before the year runs out.

Placing Bitcoin At $80,000

Before getting to $100K, the bitcoin fractal points at BTC rallying another 30% in November to land at $80,000. Crypto analyst Justin Bennett points this out in his weekly newsletter where he analyzes market movements to try to predict the direction of the digital assets.

Bitcoin price chart from

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BTC trending at $61K | Source: BTCUSD on

Bennett points out glaring similarities in the asset’s movements to that of a fractal from 2017. With one chart superimposed on another, the analyst shows that since June, bitcoin has closely followed this fractal from 2017. This means that this trigger has been in the making for over four months.

Furthermore, the accuracy of the movement to that of 2017 is striking in that it is almost identical. So, it is likely that the trends will continue to closely follow this fractal, and if it does, BTC is in a prime position to rally towards $80,000.

How It Gets To $100,000

Bitcoin sticking to the 2017 fractal is as important to its $100K mark as it is to $80K in November. The next two months will be market-defining for the digital asset going forward and if the fractal is followed as closely as it has been in the last four months, then $100,000 is conceivable by December.

One thing about fractals though is that they are not always an accurate measure of future value. They can just as easily deviate from an established path despite following the same trend for months. Bennett points this out in his analysis but also points to previous analyses that have put future value anywhere in the ballpark of $207,000 to $270,000.

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Basically, what this means is that the future of bitcoin, or at least for the last two months of 2021, is incredibly bullish. The fractal may or may not deviate. However, indicators point to BTC riding the wave to $100,000 by the end of the year.

The crypto analyst also points out that BTC peak cycles have gotten longer in recent times. So, even if BTC does not hit this price point in December, the cycle is expected to last into the first quarter of 2022, meaning that we could continue to see higher prices well into March next year.

Featured image from FreightWaves, chart from


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