Bounce Incoming for Bitcoin (BTC), According to Crypto Analyst Michaël van de Poppe – Here’s His Target

Popular crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe says that Bitcoin (BTC) is due for a heavier bounce even amid the bearish sentiment surrounding the digital asset markets.

In a new strategy session, Van de Poppe tells his 164,000 YouTube subscribers that he believes the Bitcoin bottom is not yet in despite BTC’s bounce from the 90-day low of $32,990.

“The higher timeframes are still unchanged. We’ve had a beautiful bounce and no conclusion of an actual bottom taking place here yet or that we’ve switched the trend. That’s more important… We might be getting into a phase right now that we’re actually finding a temporary bottom. However, this will most likely require a period of consolidation and will take time before we can actually start reversing.”

Although Van de Poppe says that Bitcoin has yet to carve a definitive bottom, he highlights that BTC bulls can still ignite a relief rally.

“In this case, the level to watch is the level at $35,800. We’ve been bouncing from it. But if we’re not able to crack through $36,500 at this stage, it seems very likely that we’re going to have that test [at $34,000]… If, however, we get back above $36,500 and are holding this $35,800 level, that is going to result in further upwards momentum.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $36,880, above Van de Poppe’s key level to watch.

As for the crypto strategist’s target for the bounce, Van de Poppe tells his 565,000 Twitter followers that Bitcoin can rally to its range resistance at $40,700.

“Great move of Bitcoin. Ready for a test at $38,000 and possibly $40,700 after the reclaim of the range.”

Source: Van de Poppe/Twitter

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3 Reasons Bitcoin’s ATH Looks More Bullish Now Than in April 2021

It’s been a wild few months for Bitcoin’s price. It went all the way up from around $65K in April, down to below $30K in July, and back to a new all-time high today – October 20th.

Many are drawing comparisons between the market dynamics in April and now, and as BTC sits in price discovery, it’s worth looking at a few reasons for which things might be a lot more bullish currently compared to before.

Retail FOMO Is Not Here

First things first, one of the main catalysts of parabolic advances in the BTC price have always been swarms of retail traders rushing in to buy bitcoin at the last hour.

This is what’s commonly referred to as “retail FOMO,” and we’ve seen it in 2017 and in April this year – data from Google Trends supports it:

Chart by Google Trends

The above chart from the past five years shows that back in December 2017, when Bitcoin peaked at around $20K, searches for the cryptocurrency reached an all-time high. They also started to increase in April this year – when BTC marked its new all-time high just below $65K.

Now, however, there are no real signs that retail investors are in the market. This means that we are nowhere near the levels of actual FOMO, causing many to believe that there’s plenty of upside to come.

The Market is Not Overleveraged

One way to compare how overleveraged the market was in April compared to now is to take a look at the long-term holders SOPR ratio, which shows when they were distributing coins.

Chart by CryptoQuant

The above chart reveals that back in April, LTH were taking profits at an average of an 8X leverage, and now they’re doing so at an average of 3X leverage – a considerable reduction.

Another way to gauge this is by the overall worth of liquidated positions.

Back on April 18th, CryptoPotato reported that the total market cap lost about $360 billion in a matter of hours, and bitcoin’s price crashed by $9,000. This caused a historic liquidation event where over $10 billion worth of both long and short positions were wiped off the market.

Now, similar things happened in September amid the new wave of China FUD when BTC dropped from $52K to $42K very sharply. However, the liquidations back then were nowhere near the levels from April.

In April, we were used to seeing multi-billion dollars worth of liquidations every day as both bulls and bears were overleveraged – something that could also have been deduced by the very high funding rates.

Now, on the day that Bitcoin broke its all-time high and has been through massive volatility over the past 24 hours, there are only about $300 million worth of liquidations.

This also means that the possibility of a major squeeze is considerably smaller as fewer traders are using leverage.

Strong Fundamentals

It’s true that Bitcoin’s fundamentals have been strengthening throughout 2021 in general, but the rally in April was propelled by an event that might not be as meaningful as many put it out to be – Tesla’s involvement in the market.

Now, however, things are particularly different, Institutional investors continue to flock to the industry. Not only this, we just saw the approval of the very first futures-backed BTC ETF in the United States ticked BITO.

It’s one of the hottest products on Wall Street, one day into trading, generating billions in volume and hauling over half a billion dollars in assets.

It outperforms other major ETFs such as the VOO by an order of magnitude in terms of the trading volume.

This has significantly legitimized the market and opened the door to more traditional investors as it provides a regulated product they can take advantage of.


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Analysis: The Distinction Between Bitcoin’s Market Cycles in 2017 and 2021

This analysis takes a closer look at some of Bitcoin’s structural market metrics and compares the current cycle to that of 2017.

The following is compiled by on-chain analyst CryptoVizArt for CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin’s NVT

NVT estimates the values of the network using its on-chain investor volume. As crypto analyst Willy Woo initially introduced this model, NVT Price is calculated by multiplying on-chain volume by the 2-year median value of NVT-Ratio (Market cap / Total on-chain transfer volume).

Back in 2018, after touching the cycle’s top, both 30-day & 90-day MA of NVT-price have declined continuously for almost 12 months. However, since the 50% drop that took place in May 2021, these moving averages are rising to levels above their previous peaks at 64K.

This variation in NVT-based pricing results could be translated to a higher institutional activity level compared to retailers.


Chart by Glassnode

Categorical Analysis of On-Chain Activity

Historically, in all former crypto market cycles, both the 7-day MA of on-chain transfer volume Mean & Median sizes have spiked up to over 4X of their 360-day MA level and then dropped below 1X their 360-day MA.

The Mean and Median size of on-chain transfer volume are the proxies for larger and smaller transactions. When the Mean value rises, it means high-volume transactions are happening more frequently. Median size, on the other hand, is a proxy for small transactions attributed to retailers.

Surprisingly, there has not been an over 4X spike. Additionally, the Mean value has always correlated with the Median, meaning the activity level for both large entities and minor retailers was growing with price rally to the new ATH up to more than 4X of their 360-day MA.

Amazingly, there has been a significant divergence between the Median value and Mean value. This divergence also points out the larger entities’ footprint in this ecosystem with a different conviction and vision.

Chart by Glassnode

The Fund Flow Ratio of Bitcoin: Are Insitionals Here?

Following the discussed apparent footprint of large entities above, another valuable on-chain metric, called Fund Flow Ratio, can be studied to evaluate this assumption.

Institutional players are majorly transferring their assets off the exchanges (on-chain). Therefore, we can trace the category’s weight by measuring the Fund Flow Ratio (on-chain transfer volume that is not sent to/withdrawn from exchanges divided by total on-chain transfer volume). Studying the historical trend of this ratio is evidence that it decreased subsequently after reaching the ATH and entering the bear market.

This ratio, however, has been increasing since Jan 2021, despite the 50% market correction in May. Almost 96% of the on-chain transactions are not attributed to exchanges’ withdraws/deposits. The simple conclusion can be that institutional involvement in crypto markets is increasing.

Chart by Glassnode


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Analysis: Bitcoin is Undervalued, 2021 Bull Run Hasn’t Topped Yet

Bitcoin’s recent 55% drop from all-time highs may have done technical damage to the charts, but analysis strongly suggest BTC is still in a bull market.

According to on-chain analyst “Gaah Cordeiro”, BTC is still in a bull market as shown by the MVRV Onchain metric.

What is MVRV?

MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. The metric divides BTC’s Market Value by its Realized Value. This creates a ratio that can show if the cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued. A value above 3.7 suggests that it is overvalued, and if it’s below 1 – undervalued.

According to Cordeiro, the top reached at $64k back in April was not the bull market peak because the MVRV was at 3.25 – significantly below the 2013 peaks at 5.8 and 5.9 as shown in red in the chart below.

Chart by TradingView

More importantly, during the mid-cycle pullback after BTC’s first peak in 2013, the MVRV fell into the green zone around 1.7, historically a good buy zone.

Cordeiro also noted that BTC falls into bear markets when the MVRV dips into the blue zone significantly below 1.0.  This occurred after BTC peaked in 2013 and 2017.

img2-min (1)
Chart by TradingView

Where is BTC now according to MVRV?

The current 55% decline from the highs has pushed the MVRV into the green zone, which historically has proven to be a good buy zone in mid-cycle pullbacks. At $29.2k, the low on July 21st, 2021, the MVRV hit a low at 1.46, within the green zone.

Since then, BTC has staged a powerful recovery up to $40.3k, driven by bullish technical momentum, soaring short liquidations, and an anticipated supply shock. The recent highs at $40.3k have pushed the MVRV up to 1.91, a sign of recovery for the largest cryptocurrency.

According to Cordeiro, as long as BTC MVRV holds the green zone and avoids falling into the blue zone, BTC remains in a bull market.


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S2F Model Predicts: Bitcoin Won’t Close Below $47K in August

Bitcoin’s bull run hasn’t ended, and its price could increase by more than 40% by the end of August, asserted the creator of the popular stock-to-flow model. He also predicted that the next few months will be make it or break it for the S2F.

  • Over the course of the past few months, bitcoin’s price slumped by roughly 50% from the mid-April peak, which questioned the state of the bull market.
  • While most of the community debates whether the 2018 scenario will repeat once again, the person behind the S2F model – going by the Twitter handle PlanB – believes BTC is primed for more gains.
  • He said earlier on Friday that “my on-chain data tells me this bull is not over and $64,000 was not the top.”
  • Although bitcoin has lost roughly half of its value since then following FUD from Elon Musk and China, PlanB believes the current price movements are actually in line with the S2F model. Even aside from the S2F, his “floor indicator says we will not go below $47,000” at the end of August.

  • As previously reported, the stock-to-flow ratio and its variables examine bitcoin’s production, supply, and evolution in the past decade or so. Ultimately, the model predicts a price tag well within a six-digit territory by the end of the year.
  • Nevertheless, the retracement has put in doubt this somewhat optimistic prediction. As such, PlanB asserted that the next six months “will be make or break for S2F (again).”


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Bitcoin Is Here to Stay, Says CoinShares’ CSO Meltem Demirors

Vocal Bitcoin bull Meltem Demirors believes that the ongoing crypto decline is just an ordinary correction, which would wipe out investors with ”paper hands.” She reminded that the primary digital asset has always been volatile and assured that it is ”here to stay.”

‘You Can’t Have a Number Go Up Forever.’

The current situation in the cryptocurrency space doesn’t look bright, from a short-term perspective. The dollar value of the largest digital asset by market capitalization recently crashed below $30,000 for the first time since January 2021.

In an interview for CNBC, CoinShares CSO, Meltem Demirors, said that markets could not expand forever. In fact, they experience contractions, just as it is happening now with the crypto one.

Demirors opined that the crash of the digital assets’ prices has its good side, too, as the market would clean itself from insecure investors:

”What we’re seeing is a correction, a contraction, and a lot of what is getting shaken out is what we call the ‘paper hands,’ the ‘weak hands.”

Speaking about Bitcoin, Demirors assured it ”is here to stay” and ”is not going anywhere.” She believes that a lot of people without much crypto knowledge jumped on the BTC bandwagon a few months ago when its value was skyrocketing, but now those are the ones that sell their assets.


Who Else Is Bullish During The Difficult Times?

In general, all of the Bitcoin proponents haven’t really changed their tone as, in the grand scheme of things, Bitcoin is still performing really well on a long-term basis.

Despite the ongoing crypto decline, Mike Novogratz said that the primary cryptocurrency is a better version of gold. At the same time, he asserted that the alternative coins represent the future of the financial world.

During his recent interview, Novogratz opposed the central banks and treasury departments, which printed colossal amounts of money during the pandemic. To him, people will need hard assets such as real estate, gold, and ”certainly crypto” to protect themselves from the harsh consequences of mass printing.

The prominent BTC supporter backed up not only the bitcoin but also some altcoins. He sees them as innovation, which would make the future financial market ”more transparent and more fair.”


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4 Reasons to Be Bullish as Bitcoin Breaks Back Above $40K

Although bitcoin has already added $10,000 of value in a week to $40,000, some on-chain features suggest even more bullish developments awaiting right around the corner. From the Stablecoin Ratio to increasing active addresses to corporations buying and holders still holding.

Reason 1: Bitcoin to Stablecoin Ratio

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin to stablecoin ratio oscillator has gone into bullish territory. This metric highlights the ratio of the number of bitcoins to stablecoins stored on all exchanges.

The analytics company said this metric has a “perfect BTFD hit rate since 2019.” CryptoQuant encouraged BTC bulls by adding, “it just printed another buy signal,” as the stablecoins sitting on exchanges have far superseded the bitcoins, suggesting more potential purchases.

Bitcoin to Stablecoin Ratio Oscillator. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin to Stablecoin Ratio Oscillator. Source: CryptoQuant

It’s worth noting that the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio, which works similarly, has also been declining in the past few months.

Reason 2: The Bottom Is In?

Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, also opined about BTC’s recent price developments. In fact, he believes the massive price slump towards $30,000 was actually the bottom.

He came to this conclusion by comparing the BTC/USD chart with the GS Retail Favorites Basket. History shows that the correlation between the two has been relatively high, suggesting that bitcoin could indeed mimic the basket’s performance.

Bitcoin Price Compared to GS Retail. Source: Twitter
Bitcoin Price Compared to GS Retail. Source: Twitter

Reason 3: Corporations Keep Buying, Institutional Praise

While some reports suggested that short-term investors had sold off their BTC holdings during the recent crash, others have only doubled down. Such is the case with MicroStrategy.

Michael Saylor’s NASDAQ-listed business intelligence giant plans to allocate another $1 billion in the primary cryptocurrency after a new stock offering.

The executive, who became among the most prominent BTC bulls in the past year, took it to Twitter to advise those who plan to have 5% of their portfolios in the asset that the remaining 95% will be “demonetized by bitcoin.”

Interestingly, he was referring to Paul Tudor Jones III. The prominent hedge fund manager, who outlined BTC’s benefits over a year ago after the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, praised the cryptocurrency once again during a more recent interview.

He compared it with math, which has been here for thousands of years and will be here for thousands more. Consequently, Jones wanted to increase his BTC holdings to represent 5% of his portfolio. Such compliments coming from one of the most successful investors of this generation could indeed be viewed as a bullish signal.

Reason 4: Hodlers Keep on Hodling

In its weekly review on the market, Glassnode touched upon the role of so-called HODLers – investors who have purchased their assets before a specific date and refuse to sell or even trade them.

In this case, the analytics firm looked at long-term holders who “include all buyers of coins prior to January 10th, 2021.”

Glassnode’s chart below shows that “a very large volume of coins were purchased in the early bull market, and have remained largely unspent. The current rate of maturation is over 400k BTC/month, which is much larger than the 160K BTC we estimated were sold, mostly by short-term holders, during the May capitulation event.”

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders' Behavior. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders’ Behavior. Source: Glassnode

And, perhaps a bonus reason is the active addresses on the Bitcoin network. This activity is typically linked with BTC’s price, with the general rule of thumb suggesting the more users utilizing the blockchain, the more bullish performance transpires.

The active addresses have bounced off from the early June low of 715,000 such wallets to just shy of one million. It’s still well below the mid-April high of 1.4 million (interestingly, BTC went towards its latest ATH at that point), but the ten-day increase could still be considered bullish.


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Anthony Scaramucci Sees Bitcoin’s Potential Unleashed over The Next Two Years

The founder of SkyBridge Capital – Anthony Scaramucci, is not stunned by the recent decline of bitcoin’s USD price. Just the opposite, he believes that its fiat currency value will reach new heights in the next 24 months.

BTC Will Be Back

In a recent CNBC interview, the American financier Anthony Scaramucci reassured the supporters of the primary cryptocurrency that it will overcome its current downward volatility. He reminded that Bitcoin’s performance in 2021 is still impressive, being 10% up, despite its recent nosedive.

SkyBridge Capital’s CEO made an interesting reference as he compared the digital asset to Amazon. In the late 20th century, the multinational e-commerce giant was in its infancy and its stock price was quite volatile as well. However, investing in it back then would bring massive gains nowadays:

”If you went back to Amazon’s IPO back in 1997, if you held that stock, $10,000 of that stock on its IPO is now worth $24 million. But you would have subjected yourself when the stock dipped at least 50% as it was scaling.”

Scaramucci opined that investors who keep holding bitcoin would ultimately benefit from it in the near future. According to him, BTC’s value will appreciate significantly:

”I’m very confident that we’ll be sitting here a year or two from now and talk about this volatility, but also be amazed at the upward trajectory of BTC over the next 24 months.”

In addition, he said that what’s happening to the primary cryptocurrency now is very similar to the invention of the phone system in the early 1900s when people started buying those phones to connect with each other.


Anthony Scaramucci. Source: Yahoo
Anthony Scaramucci. Source: Yahoo

A Bitcoin Bull No Matter What

Anthony Scaramucci has shared his sympathy for Bitcoin on numerous occasions. During the sharp price decline in May when most experts started predicting negative scenarios for the asset, SkyBridge Capital’s founder did not change his stance. He stated that Bitcoin’s 2021 bull cycle has not stopped completely and will resume later in the year.

On the contrary to the accusations that the digital asset consumes too much electricity and is harmful to the environment, he pointed out that its overall carbon emission is only 0.13%. Furthermore, a substantial amount of energy comes from renewable sources.

Recently, Troy Gayeski – Co-Chief Investment Officer at SkyBridge Capital – doubled down on the organization’s support for Bitcoin. He surmised that the company believes in gold’s potential but would choose Bitcoin as an investment option over the precious metal.


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3 on-chain indicators suggest the Bitcoin price sell-off is losing steam

Bitcoin (BTC) entered a consolidation phase following its May 19 crash from $42,600 to $30,000 on Coinbase. The flagship cryptocurrency recovered its losses quickly and reclaimed $40,000 but it failed to log a clear bullish breakout above this resistance level and at the time of writing the price remains pinned below $40,000.

The latest price action in the Bitcoin market has been — at best — choppy, with traders showing no clear indication about their short-term bias. Some analysts predicted that if the BTC/USD price does not break above $40,000, it may very well fall to as low as $20,000 in the coming sessions.

Interestingly, a handful of on-chain indicators tell a different story. One of the most interesting themes holding Bitcoin’s bullish bias intact is witnessing long-term holders and accumulation addresses stacking more BTC during the recent price dip.

Furthermore, a metric known as the Bitcoin Entity-Adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) shows that the market is no longer selling Bitcoin at a loss on aggregate.

Bitcoin Entity-Adjusted SOPR. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that exchanges saw a decline in their reserves, a signal that traders have been withdrawing their digital assets to cold wallets or depositing them into DeFi liquidity pools for more lucrative returns.

While the short-term perspective may be tilted toward bears, the following three on-chain indicators hint that Bitcoin could be in the process of bottoming out.

Bitcoin: Spent Output Age Bands

The correction in Bitcoin price resulted in three kinds of reactions in the spot market. The first involved panic-selling by short-term traders who sold Bitcoin to minimize their losses, probably because they bought the cryptocurrency near its top. 

The second reaction involved HODLERs that decided to hold on to their exiting bitcoin supply. They showed a long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s bullish bias against supportive macroeconomic fundamentals, such as ultra-low interest rates, poor yields on government bonds, inflation fears and a declining U.S. dollar, that made hedging assets like Bitcoin look attractive to HODL.

The third reaction was a mix of HODLers and accumulators as traders utilized the Bitcoin price dip to buy more of the cryptocurrency at a ‘discount’.

Various on-chain indicators showed a huge contrast between the Bitcoin reserves held by short-term holders and long-term holders during the price crash.

For example, the ‘Bitcoin: Spent Out Age Bands’ chart below, last week saw a greater amount of selling coming from coins that were one day to one week old. These coins kept moving in and out of the market, accurately reflecting the state of higher price volatility in the market last week.

Bitcoin spent output age bands, calculated per seven-day moving average. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, coins that remained unspent for 1 to 3 months and 3 to 6 months also changed addresses in the wake of the recent price crash.

Traders that held Bitcoin in wallets for 1-6 months moved them in May. Source: Glassnode

Another Glassnode metric dubbed the ‘Bitcoin: Total Supply Held By Long-Term Holders’ showed that long-term holders — entities that hold Bitcoin for more than six months, became the largest beneficiaries of the tokens sold by the short-term holders.

Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders kept increasing amid the May crash. Source: Glassnode 

In a weekly note to clients, Anthony Pompliano, investor at Pomp Investments, said:

“Long-term holders are adding to their positions, short-term holders are selling, some entities in the short-term cohort have now reached the 155-day threshold for this metric and are now in the long term cohort.” 

This divergence pointed to long-term stability in Bitcoin price as more and more serious holders took positions against the ongoing macroeconomic crisis.

Bitcoin balance on exchanges drops

The net Bitcoin reserves held by cryptocurrency exchanges have also declined in the past seven days, showing that fewer and fewer traders now want to sell their Bitcoin holdings.

The metric points to a typical trading behavior. Traders only deposit Bitcoin to their exchange wallets when they want to either sell them for fiat or trade them for other digital assets. As a result, the BTC reserves on trading platforms rise.

Exchanges bitcoin reserves are down 14,207 BTC in the last 7 days. Source: Glassnode

Conversely, a higher degree of BTC withdrawals reflects traders’ decision to hold the cryptocurrency. It means that Bitcoin would not face immediate sell-off pressure in the spot market, which is what the latest Glassnode readings show.

Bitcoin accumulation addresses and balances rise

The total number of accumulation addresses and the balance within these wallets are rising. In retrospect, an accumulation address is the one that has received at least two BTC transactions but has never moved the assets out of the address.

Convinced Bitcoin bulls continue stacking through the price dip, Source: Glassnode.

In the last seven days, the number of these accumulation addresses has climbed, adding 7,430 new wallets to the list.

Another metric dubbed the ‘Bitcoin: Supply Held by Entities with Balance 0.01 – 0.1’ showed that new users entered the Bitcoin network during its price dip. Additionally, supply held by addresses that have  0.001 BTC to 1 BTC in them increased in tandem, showing steady growth in retail interest.

Bitcoin supply held by wallets holding 0.01-0.1 BTC spikes as prices fall. Source: Glassnode