Bitcoin NUPL Metric Signals Start Of Early Bear Period

Bitcoin NUPL indicator has sharply dropped in value recently, a trend that may signal the start of the early bear market period.

After The Crash, Bitcoin NUPL Value Has Declined To 32.5%

According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the BTC NUPL’s recent trend may suggest that the early bear market is now beginning.

The “Net Unrealized Profit and Loss” (or NUPL in short) is an on-chain indicator that measures the difference between the relative unrealized profit and the relative unrealized loss.

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NUPL = (Market Cap – Realized Cap) / Market Cap

In simpler terms, what this metric tells us is whether the Bitcoin market as a whole is currently in a state of profit or of loss.

The indicator works by looking at each coin on the chain and checking whether its current price is lower or higher than the price it was bought at.

When the NUPL value is above zero, it means the overall Bitcoin network is currently in profit. On the other hand, negative values imply investors are, on average, in loss at the moment.

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Historically, the more the indicator has deviated from zero, the closer the price has been to a top or a bottom (depending on which way of zero the metric currently points).

Related Reading | Following Crash, Bitcoin Open Interest Declines To Sept 2021 Levels

Now, here is a chart that highlights the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL over the history of the coin:

Bitcoin NUPL

Looks like the metric's value has sharply declined recently | Source: The Glassnode Week Onchain - Week 4, 2022

As the above graph shows, the Bitcoin NUPL has sharply declined recently, and its value is now 0.325. This means that currently 32.5% of the crypto’s market cap is being held as unrealized profit.

Related Reading | Has Bitcoin Reached Its Bottom? Analyst Says It Still Has A Long Way To Go

The indicator’s current value seems to be in a region that has historically signaled an early bear market trend, as the colors in the chart highlight.

The trend over the past year has also been that of a bearish divergence. Therefore all NUPL signs are that this may now be the beginning of a new bear market.

An interesting fact is that similar values were also there following the May 2021 crash. Thus in a sense, a bear market also started then, but it only lasted for a few months.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $36.4k, down 12% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 28% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of BTC over the last five days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC's price plunged to $33k yesterday, but has since recovered back above $36k | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from, charts from,


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Start Of Bear Period? Current Bitcoin Trend Looks Similar To June

Bitcoin on-chain data shows current trend with the short-term holder SOPR looks similar to that in June. This may mean that a bear period similar to then has started.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Continue To Realize Losses

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, Bitcoin short-term holders have continued to realize profits recently, as suggested by the SOPR. This trend may be similar to the one seen in June.

The “Spent Output Profit Ratio,” or SOPR in short, is an indicator that measures the profit ratio of the overall market by looking at the price each coin was sold at and comparing it with the price it was bought at.

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When the value of this metric is above one, it means holders are, on an average, selling at a profit. On the other hand, SOPR values less than one would mean investors are currently dumping their Bitcoin at a loss.

The value of the metric when exactly equal to one would imply that the overall BTC market is currently breaking even.

A modification of this indicator is the short-term holder (STH) SOPR. This metric accounts for only those coins that were held for less than 155 days before being sold.

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Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the past year:

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR

The indicator currently seems to be below one | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has remained below one for a while now, showing that these holders have been selling at a loss.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Whales Contribute 90% Of Money Inflow of Exchanges, How Can We Follow and Make Profits?

Less than a couple of weeks back, the indicator retested the SOPR equal to one trendline. However, it was rejected back downwards.

The reason for the rejection is possibly that since the SOPR = 1 line represents the “break-even” point, holders would be keen to sell as soon as the price reaches that point as they would feel they got their money “back.”

Related Reading | Altcoin Underdogs Outperform Bitcoin To Kick Off 2022

A similar kind of retest of the metric was also seen back in June, when a mini-bear market period was going on for Bitcoin.

As the indicator was also rejected downwards then just like now, it’s possible the market may observe a similar bear market situation.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $42.7k down 10% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 12% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the crypto over the last five days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC's price has crashed down in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from, charts from,


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Bitcoin Miners Have Started Selling, Bear Market Ahead?

Bitcoin on-chain data has revealed that miners have started selling more BTC on exchanges, an indicator that a bear market could be ahead.

Miners To Exchanges Flow Has Sharply Risen

As pointed out by a CryptoQuant post, the all miners to all exchanges flow mean for Bitcoin seems to have sharply risen this past weekend.

Related to the data are three basic terms. First is the all miners to all exchanges flow total, which shows the total number of coins sent from miners to exchanges.

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The next term is the transactions count flow, which indicates the number of Bitcoin transactions done from mining pools to exchanges.

Lastly, there is the flow mean that’s defined as the mean amount of BTC transferred from miners to exchanges, and it’s calculated by dividing the flow total with the transactions count. This indicator is of the focus here.

Bitcoin All Miners To All Exchanges Flow Mean = Flow Total ÷ Transactions Count

Now, here is a chart that shows how the value of the indicator has changed over the past year:

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Bitcoin Miners To Exchanges Flow Mean

Bitcoin Miners To Exchanges Flow Mean

The indicator seems to have recently risen | Source: CryptoQuant

As the graph shows, on the weekend, the all miners to all exchanges flow mean has hit the highest point since November 2020.

The past month has also seen other smaller peaks with the average Bitcoin transferred being more than 60 BTC. The peak this Saturday was almost 100 coins big.

The mining environment right now is a bit special due to China’s crackdowns, and it’s possible the value of the indicator is going up because miners are relocating to other countries and restarting operations.

When the value of the indicator goes up, it means more miners are transferring their BTC to exchanges for selling purposes.

Since the quantities involved are pretty large here, selling pressure from miners can have an impact on the entire market.

Related Reading | A Rare Bullish Bitcoin Signal Has Finally Appeared

Thus, the value going up can be bearish for the market. However, it should be noted that it doesn’t necessarily have to result in the price falling down.

There have been instances in the history of Bitcoin where the miners to exchanges flow mean going up hasn’t resulted in a crash. For example, the price only continued to march up after the November 2020 spike.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, BTC price is around $30.7k, down almost 8% in the last 7 days. Here is a chart noting the trend in the crypto’s value:

Bitcoin Price Chart

Bitcoin Price Chart

Bitcoin seems to be on a downtrend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

BTC continues to be stuck in a range bound market as the crypto’s price fails to move much in the past few weeks.

Related Reading | Why Bitcoin And Crypto Bulls Require More Patience

It’s unclear when the market will pick a particular direction to go in, but if the miners to exchanges flow is anything to go by, there could be a bearish turn soon. However, as mentioned before, that doesn’t necessarily have to be the case either.


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What Was The Ultimate Top Signal For Bitcoin? Market Digest With Scott Melker

CryptoPotato had the chance to poke the brains of the professional cryptocurrency trader Scott Melker, perhaps better known in the industry by his Twitter alias The Wolf of All Streets. 

With the market being as volatile and dynamic as it has been in the past couple of months, it’s safe to say that we had a lot to discuss.

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Bitcoin Price: Is It Still a Dip or Change of Momentum?

Plenty of people are of the opinion that it’s high time we stopped calling the current correction a dip. A 50% drop from the all-time high is a considerable retrace.

“It’s a little minimizing to call this a dip. There was a significant shift in the market structure, as well as the perception of the asset and in the institutional interest towards it.” – Melker said.

However, he also explicitly outlined that it’s crucial to keep context and timeframe in mind.

“If you look at a monthly chart and the history of Bitcoin – it looks like a small correction and a little dip. If you’re looking at a chart for the past 3 to 6 months, maybe you say that we’ve entered a short bear market here, that the bull run is over and that we can start a new one in a matter of days.”

With the current landscape clearly in mind, it was impossible not to talk about China. Scott believes, and perhaps rightfully so, that what’s happening there this time “is a little bit more significant” than the countless times we saw recycled FUD.

After all, a lot of miners are migrating out of the country, and this had a direct impact on Bitcoin’s hashrate.

He opined that this isn’t necessarily bad for Bitcoin – but on the contrary – plenty of establishments are prepared to start mining BTC elsewhere in the world, using contemporary technology and renewable energy sources, and that the China mining exodus came at just the right time. With this, he believes that, in general, what’s going on right now is bullish for the network in the long run.

Talking about Ethereum, he outlined that he continues to be very bullish on it and pointed out that even though it had outperformed Bitcoin substantially this year, ETH is now down just as much.

In any case, Melker said that he had already bought the dips, but he does have sidelined capital in case Bitcoin tests the lower $20K region.

Top Signals All Over the Place

In regards to the question if we saw some clear top signals prior to the massive correction, Melker believes that leverage, though it can be good, can also be quite devastating in the majority of cases.

During the market’s parabolic advance earlier in the year, we saw numerous instances when the price of Bitcoin moved by a couple of thousand dollars in each direction, causing billions worth of liquidations almost on a daily basis.

“Leverage exacerbates and amplifies everything that happens in this market to a degree you can’t see elsewhere.”

This, coupled with inefficient liquidation engines, can easily lead to a cascade of liquidations. He brought us back to March 2020, when bitcoin crashed to $3,800 and noted that if BitMEX didn’t go into maintenance, “we would have seen literally bitcoin going to zero on their exchange because of how aggressive their liquidation engine was and because there were no bids left on the books.”

However, he did say that the clearest top signal, according to him, was the laser eyes trend. Melker prefaced this by saying that it’s not necessarily laser eyes, per se, but rather the idea behind it that price could not go down.

Bitcoin aside, right about that time, the altcoin market was also getting rather toppy, and Melker agrees with the point that DOGE-inspired meme coins such as Shiba Inu and whatnot were a clear sign of that.

Shiba Inu, for instance, became the most popular of the above, and its price skyrocketed in an unbelievable magnitude following the developments with Dogecoin.

As it’s almost always the case, though, most of these cryptocurrencies tanked in value. SHIB, for instance, is currently trading 76% below its all-time high, leaving all the investors who bought at the top well in the dust.

But there are lessons to be learned from that as well.

Memes Are Not Representative of the Crypto Movement as a Whole

In terms of advice, aside from the obvious “learn from your mistakes and don’t do it again” tip, Melker also touched on something a lot more fundamental.


Shiba Inu (SHIB), Dogecoin, and everything within that spectrum is not representative of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency movement. It’s not what the industry is about.

“That’s the biggest problem for me – you see retail coming in and they never even look at what they’re buying, and end up buying some complete joke. They would lose their money and they would say “crypto is a scam! Bitcoin is a scam!”

This, he believes, is completely unrelated and has nothing to do with it.

To wrap it up, Melker told us that he has already bought the dips, but he does have sidelined capital in case Bitcoin goes towards the lowe $20K region and is prepared to keep stacking.


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Is Crypto Winter Here? Experts Share Their Points of View

If Bitcoin’s fall grom $62,000 to the perilous $30,000 mark seems scary, then buckle up: Some analysts believe it could get even worse… And if conditions remain the same, that is very likely to be the case.

The sharp drop from $60,000, the arrival of the infamous death cross, the bad news coming out of China, and the lack of institutional appetite seem to be acting together to maintain a bearish mood in the markets and laying the groundwork for a brutal, cold crypto winter.

Brace yourselves… Crypto Winter is Coming

In a statement compiled by The Wall Street Journal, DailyFX analyst Peter Hanks said that it is easier to see red candles than green on price charts for the foreseeable future.

“I think bitcoin is certainly headed for more losses here … If it breaks [below $30,000], then crypto winter is certainly back on the docket.”

Bitcoin bulls have been able to hold the $30,000 price line, even though some bearish attempts have been fruitful and prices have briefly dipped below this zone. However, for the time being, $30,000 has cemented itself as strong price support.

Price of Bitcoin. Is it crypto winter yet? Image: Tradingview
Price of Bitcoin. Is it crypto winter yet? Image: Tradingview

Other experts such as J.P. Morgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou have an explanation closer to market sentiment analysis rather than technical indicators per se. In a recent report, he explains that from his point of view, Bitcoin has not yet gained the trust of institutions, so not enough money has flowed into the markets.


“More than a month after the May 19th crypto crash, bitcoin funds continue to bleed. Institutional investors, who tend to invest via regulated vehicles such as publicly listed bitcoin funds or CME Bitcoin futures, still exhibit little appetite to buy the bitcoin dip.

There is Room For a New Boom

However, not everyone is sure that this cold snap will turn into a freezings crypto winter.

For example, Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange FTX said that institutions are eager to invest in cryptocurrencies; they are just waiting for the right time or don’t really have a full understanding of the market.

The first thing that we do is we just listen, right? We’re like, look, what’s what’s your goal here? What you actually want to do? And then we can say, all right, cool, here’s how the industry works right now. Ignoring what you said. Here’s this, here’s the lay of the land. […] We want to be a day away from pulling the trigger on a big deal.

Another who also thinks that – at least in the short term – the markets have bottomed out is John Bollinger himself, creator of the famous technical indicator that bears his name.

In a recent interview, he talked about a potential bottom around $30k, which earned him an avalanche of support on Twitter.

Molly, Head of Marketing at HashKey Hub, also shared a statistic that may provide a little light at the end of the tunnel. Never has so much stablecoins entered centralized exchanges since the days when Elon Musk announced that Tesla had bought Bitcoin.

If good things happen to repeat themselves, this money could go into buying Bitcoin, contributing to further upward pressure.

From there to skipping winter to a new spring is a long way off, but the wait sure be interesting.


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After Bitcoin Dipped Below $30K: Is Bear Market Confirmed? Industry Experts Weigh In

With BTC’s price going through a severe correction this week, reaching a near six-month low, the question arisen within the community if we have officially entered a bear market.

Dumping to more than 50% south from its peak, which came just two months ago, certainly has some arguing that the bears are indeed in control. To find out more expert views on the matter, though, CryptoPotato reached out to some of the most prominent names in the industry.

Those include the host of Keiser Report – Max Keiser, Jason Deane – Bitcoin Analyst at Quantum Economics, CoinGecko’s Bobby Ong, and the renowned DJ turned crypto analyst – Scott Melker, better known with his Twitter handle – The Wolf Of All Streets.

Version One: Bear Market It Is

After the previous bull market in 2017/2018, bitcoin’s price started to fall quickly and saw a half of its value slashed in a few months. Fast-forward to the middle of 2021, and the situation is quite similar.

BTC peaked in mid-April at $65,000 before it started to decline in value gradually. FUD, initially propelled by Elon Musk and intensified by China, resulted in more vigorous movements that culminated (so far) days ago when the cryptocurrency fell to around $28,500 – the lowest price tag since January 2020.

The Co-Founder and COO of CoinGecko, Bobby Ong, believes this drop has officially marked the start of the 2021 bear market but raised questions about its longevity.

Bobby Ong. Source: CoinGecko

“Bitcoin trading at its current levels has already made the current market a bear one as it is down 50% from its ATH. The question now is how long and how deep the bear market will be.”

He outlined a few differences between the start of this bear market and the previous ones as “there is no blow-off top, and this has been a gradual decline over the past month. How long this bear market will last will be anyone’s guess as well.”

The Wolf Of All Streets supports Ong’s stance to some extent. He noted that a 50% retracement from the top means the asset is “not in a bull market” because “it’s not a healthy correction anymore.” But that’s only when zoomed-in on a smaller timeframe.

If one looks at a more macro scale, seeing that BTC is still up by more than 200% in less than a year, the most logical conclusion is that BTC is “absolutely” in a bull market.” As such, he believes “much higher prices are likely.”

Scott Melker

The Relationship Between Price and Hashrate

China has received most of the blame for the adverse price developments. The Asian Superpower took its negative stance on the industry a step further by going after BTC mining and ousting miners.

Being the country responsible for over 60% of the hash rate until that moment, its actions had an immediate impact on the metric, which went down by roughly 50% in a matter of a month.

Jason Deane, a Bitcoin Analyst at Quantum Economics, touched upon this topic and debunked the idea that BTC’s price and hash rate are actually correlated. His company doesn’t see this as the start of a bear market, as the correction was mostly fueled by sentiment and momentum instead of actual fundamentals.

“This is most likely the case here, with that momentum almost certainly sparked, among other things, by the widely held (and incorrect) belief that lower hash rate is a hard driver for lower prices. It is true that this is a period of adjustment, but the network continues to run perfectly and will continue to do so, just as it was designed to do.”

Furthermore, he believes China’s actions will make the Bitcoin network “far more decentralized than ever before, and this move is considered to be extremely positive in the medium to long term.” Interestingly, recent reports indicated that miners are relocating from China to other countries, like Kazakhstan and the US, which would indeed loosen the nation’s grip on the mining industry.

“Fundamentals remain intact. In our view, therefore, this is far more likely to be a period of market overreaction that will ultimately correct in due course.” – Deane concluded.

Not The Worst Correction

Max Keiser, who has been a permanent BTC bull for over a decade, reassured the masses that such retracements are somewhat expected for the asset. In fact, he has been through “15 major pullbacks” since 2011, and this one “is not as bad as several I have seen.”

He also attributed it to the migration of mining out of China, but “the miners will be up and running soon enough in new regions. And it’s a huge positive to be out of China, in my view.”

Max Keiser. Source; Yahoo
Max Keiser. Source; RT

Additionally, he believes there’re far more critical factors to consider when examining BTC’s actual value.

“If you are asking whether or not this pullback is a bear market, keep in mind that Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition is not price-sensitive; it’s block-sensitive. As the price has pulled back, so has the difficulty adjustment ensuring that blocks keep coming right in schedule. So in effect, nothing has changed. Blocks keep coming no matter what the price is.

For those looking at price only, keep in mind this one important axiom: Fiat money, over time, has zero volatility and a guaranteed loss of purchasing power. Bitcoin, over time, has some volatility and guaranteed increase in purchasing power.”

Keiser also referred to BTC as “sound, unconfiscatable money separated from the state, and a perpetual bull market.”


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Bitcoin Transfers to Spot Exchanges at Highest Levels Since March 2020 Crash

Although bitcoin has already lost roughly 50% of its USD value in two months, the asset could be primed for even more adverse price developments. After the death cross and reports suggesting institutions are dumping, new on-chain data revealed that investors had deposited massive portions of their holdings to exchanges, which could lead to another sell-off.

Largest Exchange Inflows Since March 2020

A lot can change in the ever-volatile cryptocurrency market in a few months. In April, BTC seemed destined for new records, which were popping up almost daily until the mid-month peak of $65,000.

While the community sentiment was highly optimistic and members envisioned even a six-digit price tag in the following months, few very could have predicted what followed. And what followed was a gradual decrease in the next thirty days and a substantial price drop in the next week to $30,000 following FUD from China and negative news from Tesla and Elon Musk.

Although bitcoin recovered more than $10,000 in the next few weeks on favorable developments in El Salvador, this rally seemed somewhat weak due to China’s brutal crackdown.

Consequently, BTC started to freefall again and lost all progress in a few days. The fear is back in the market, and investors seemed determined to act on this. CryptoQuant’s researches pointed out that June 21st was the highest daily spike in bitcoin inflows from external wallets to spot exchanges since the mid-March 2020 crash.


Thus, such trading platforms saw their netflows turn “significantly positive for the first time since the distribution in the $50,000 range.”

Bitcoin Inflows to Spot Exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Inflows to Spot Exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

It’s worth noting that the aforementioned crash last March resulted in a 50% drop for BTC’s price in a day when it bottomed below $4,000.

It Gets Even Worse

Investors sending their bitcoins to exchanges is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes down to bear market signs. As CryptoPotato reported earlier this week, the 50-Day MA crossed below the 200-Day MA, resulting in a death cross for BTC. History shows that similar developments have previously led to adverse price movements.

Separately, other recent reports indicated that institutional investors have not only stopped allocating funds in bitcoin-tracking products, but they have started to make sizeable withdrawals.

Additionally, BTC whales have begun another worrying trend of disposing of their assets, which could lead to further price slumps.


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Bitcoin Death Cross 2021 Is Here: The Reasons Why You Shouldn’t Be Worried

The Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 crashes were both preceded by a death cross and signified that the tides in the market are about to shift in a big way.

Why Does a Death Cross Work?

The death cross indicator has been reliable in both the stock and crypto markets – it predicted 4 major crypto crashes, as well as the 1974 and 2008 stock market collapses. When a bull market ends, short-term momentum (indicated by the 50-day moving average line, or 50MA) starts to slow down.

The Death Cross describes a cross between the MA-50 and MA-200, whereas the shorter one, the 50-day, crosses below the 200-day.

BTC/USD death cross of June 2021. Source: TradingView

Long-term moving averages are able to provide a robust trend – a line of best fit, so to speak, creating an idea of baseline demand. In bullish markets, momentum moves higher with time, so on shorter time frames like the 50MA, the market tends to overshoot the long-term mean.


Short-term moving averages falling below long-term ones (especially on high volume) indicate that demand & interest is drying up, and is often followed by a huge drop or a prolonged bear market.

The Death Cross’s Reliability in Crypto

Being far younger than traditional markets, the cryptocurrency market is not always privy to the same rules. We’ve seen time and time again that the death cross often deals a hard blow to individual stocks and broad-based indices. Indeed, for the most part, similar trends have been observed in the Bitcoin market.

However, the death cross indicator isn’t foolproof. 2015’s mid-year Bitcoin death cross, although on much lower volume, was actually followed up by a massive bullish run.

Death crosses in later years have been more reliably followed up by bearish price action partially due to more accurate price discovery on higher volume. It’s a great indicator that should definitely be taken seriously, but it’s never a lock, as per the above figures, that show the ROI from a death cross until a Golden cross took place, which is the opposite – when the MA-50 line crosses above the MA-200 line.

This might be a function of Bitcoin’s youth, but a death cross has invariably been followed up by massive price action one way or another, so it’s worth gearing up anyway.

Other than pure technical analysis, there are several interesting fundamental factors at play that might push against the death cross’s bearish tilt: El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin, Taproot’s signaling completion, miners’ transition into Texas’s world of renewable energy, and more have the possibility of mitigating (or negating) what the death cross has in store for BTC’s price over the end of June.


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4 Signals That the Bitcoin Crash Might Soon Reach a Local Bottom

A bullish case isn’t on many people’s minds – but signs are cropping up that Bitcoin may indeed be headed for a trend reversal. Here are some signs explaining why BTC might be overdue for a renewed uptick.

Bitcoin reached its all-time high of almost $65K on April 14, 2021, a little over a month ago. However, over the past 10 days the price violently broke down from the $50K mark and even reached $30K last Wednesday.

The bearish sentiment affected the whole crypto market, as altcoins suffered even more: ETH, which saw its all-time high of $4400 just 11 days ago, dropped earlier today below $1800, before a slight correction as of writing these lines.

Where is the bottom for this ongoing crypto bloodbath? No one knows, but it might be worth keeping an eye on the following optimistic signals.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index: Remember April 2020?

The crypto fear & greed index is now at levels not seen since April 2020, which is about the time when the last crypto market crash occurred, taking BTC down below $4,000, losing over 50% in two days at the peak of the pandemic “Black Thursday.”


In hindsight, it was an amazing time to buy in, but it wasn’t necessarily obvious back then. These days, Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from its ~$65,000 high down to $30,000 on Wednesday – is the index right once again, and is this crash a blessing in disguise for people with stablecoins on the sidelines?

S2F Model: Lower Band At $30K

Similarly, the stock to flow (S2F) model indicates that BTC is due for an upwards rebound at the $30,000 mark given its stage in the cycle. The S2F model treats Bitcoin as a commodity (given that it has a fixed supply and limited issuance, similar to gold) and thus factors in circulating supply and production speed in order to determine scarcity and therefore price.

IN BITCOIN’S SHORT HISTORY, the S2F model and 4-year cycle have been proven to be reliable. As been stated by PlanB, the creator of the mode: “The continuation of this crash into the next few weeks (effectively the end of the bull cycle) would invalidate the S2F model and 4-year cycle model,” which have so far been sound – many analysts predict that it’s not yet time for things to turn around for the worse.

S2F currently plots the lower band at $30K, which is this week’s current low.

On-Exchange Stablecoins At ATH, Waiting Aside?

The amount of stablecoins on exchanges is at a yearly ATH – Lex Moskovski opines that there are ‘a lot of bullets waiting to be deployed from the sidelines.’

Of course, this could merely be a function of a large number of new entrants into the cryptocurrency ecosystem, but it most likely means big players are gearing up to bring in large buys.

In addition, John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator, believes that BTC might be nearing a local double bottom.

All of these indicators come together and paint a better picture of Bitcoin’s immediate short-term potential than the market is making it out to seem. After the past few days’ waves of incessant bearish moves, it may be time for BTC to take a breather, as RSI indicates that we are heavily oversold.

Vaporware Altcoins Bleeding Out – BTC Dominance Rising

It’s clear that altcoins have more to worry about – Bitcoin dominance has hit a local bottom at ~40% and has been steadily trending upwards (currently sitting at 47%). It’ll most likely recover even more as the market sheds off the excess weight that had been added on by vaporware coins fuelled by the speculative altcoin mania bubble.

Those dogecoin copycats can be easily referred to as “dumb money” and “weak hands.” Once those hands are gone – the smarter money will return to the large-caps cryptocurrencies and, most likely, to the king of them, which is Bitcoin.


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Bitcoin Could be Near Support, But Institutions Are Bullish Because Of Its Fundamentals —Experts Debate

Bitcoin has recently shifted trends and this downturn has become a hot talking point among many investors who are divided between those who have fallen prey to pessimism and those who still refuse to believe that this was all a market episode started and extinguished by Elon Musk.

After Elon Musk announced that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in the purchase of Bitcoin, the markets began to go through the roof, and everything began to fall apart once he announced that Tesla would not accept Bitcoin because it was harmful to the environment.

Price of Bitcoin. Image:
Price of Bitcoin. Image:

Now experts and analysts are in a war of ideas as they try to predict future scenarios.

BTC Is Bearish And Approaching Support

Yesterday, May 17, Carter Braxton Worth, Chief Market Technician at Cornerstone Macro, explained that Bitcoin may have some dark days ahead.

The analyst, dubbed by CNBC as the Chartmaster, explained that Bitcoin could continue to fall until it finds support near $40,000. He argues that two key references are converging in that area: the 150-day Moving Average and the first resistance after the January 2021 peak.


He explained that Bitcoin is currently in a historical support zone. Over its lifetime, Bitcoin has had 11 identifiable crashes over time. The average losses of these moments hover around 55% from the top – some have been over 80% while others have hovered around 30%.

In other words, Bitcoin may currently be in a decisive support zone that could extend to around 35K should the 55% downtrend continue. Since the current ATH, Bitcoin has lost about 37%, losing all the gains since the second week of January 2021.

He explained that support can fluctuate, and its determination is not an exact science.

Support is not a plywood border and concrete floor; it’s a mattress top. You were down to support, but you can sink into support like a child jumping on the bed in a hotel room.

Fundamentals Have Not Changed. Bitcoin Bulls Are Still Among Us

But others are not so pessimistic and see a bright light at the end of the tunnel. Bitcoin’s fundamentals have not changed, and they think that as soon as the hype and fear dissipate, Bitcoin’s natural uptrend will continue.

Karen Finerman, CEO of Metropolitan Capital, is part of this group. A few hours ago, in a panel discussion with CNBC, she explained the reasons behind her optimism.

Karen Finerman talked about a survey conducted by the Bank of America, which reported that Long Bitcoin is the most overcrowded trade in the whole world. She believes that a lot of momentum traders are riding the wave, but the majority of investors are putting their money into bitcoin vecause of its fundamentals:

We’ve seen drawdowns bigger than this many times before. The question is: Do you still believe in the theory behind Bitcoin? I actually do. I’m long, I’ve been known for a long time … so I guess I’m in the overcrowded trade of the world.

During the panel, experts argued that the strong presence of institutional investors and investment products oriented to the world of traditional finance has served to give some maturity to the markets, which may help in the near future avoid manipulations and modify the dynamics of the crypto market.


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