Bitcoin, Group Biases And Illusion Of (The) Authority

When the Highest Paid Person Opinion (HIPPO) is never questioned — ignorelimits.com

When the Highest Paid Person Opinion (HIPPO) is never questioned — ignorelimits.com



As discussed in the previous article on biases, we can understand some of the misconceptions around Bitcoin by looking at different cognitive biases and their effect on people’s understanding of bitcoin the asset and Bitcoin the network.

“A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own “subjective reality” from their perception of the input. An individual’s construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the worl​d.” –Wikipedia

These biases cause systematic errors regarding what is said and what is believed about Bitcoin.

Understanding these biases can help us educate, inform, and respond.

Illusion Of Authority

The illusion of authority bias is “the tendency to attribute greater accuracy to the opinion of an authority figure (unrelated to its content) and be more influenced by that opinion.”

Bitcoiners do not tend to have illusions of authority around legacy government and financial authorities.

However, the general population does have this bias and often outright believes the authority of a CEO, a President or governmental figure, or a high-profile figure in the current finance and monetary system.

We’ve seen everyone from Warren Buffett to Peter Schiff to Ray Dalio to Elizabeth Warren to Christine Lagarde to Gary Gensler speak out and relay false information about Bitcoin.

And yet these public figures are trusted and believed by many.

An implicit part of these public figures’ authority is that the authority is built on a certain group or groups’ thinking.

Conformity And In-Group Biases

There are two main biases related to groups that have similar belief outcomes with regard to Bitcoin misconceptions.

Groupthink, which is a type of conformity bias, is “the psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people when the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.”

Conformity biases — the act of matching attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors to group norms, politics or being like-minded — explain the incentive to print more money via MMT because federal debt purchases, stimulus, grants, and stock appreciation have become normalized and are harmonious for so many groups of people. However, many believe it is irrational to print so much money and devalue the currency by reducing its purchasing power. This view has traditionally been non-conformist.

Ingroup bias is “the tendency for people to give preferential treatment to others they perceive to be members of their own groups.”

In recent history, Keynesian economists, government and financial authorities were the prominent authorities for finance and most people were socially biased to believe those authorities’ group norms. These group biases overlap with social circles, friends,family and work colleagues. This makes it difficult to change or think differently, due to the social ostracism or disagreement that may occur.

Group biases also often lead people to make blanket and false statements that fit within a group norm. The group norm also often vehemently negates ideas or systems if the ideas are outside their group or their group’s authority.

Outside Group And Reactive Devaluation Bias

The Not Invented Here bias is another type of in-group bias and is “the aversion to contact with or use of products, research, standards, or knowledge developed outside a group.”

Reactive devaluation bias “occurs when a proposal is devalued if it appears to originate from an antagonist.“

Anything to do with Bitcoin — any possible issue — is reacted to by the authorities and negatively and amplified, seemingly without critical thinking.

Furthermore, because the authority figure’s authority is based on group consensus and group-think, the authority’s anti-Bitcoin words and opinions are further amplified within the groups that rely on their authority.

Regardless of what each person individually might think or where they might be unsure, authority figures are always beholden to the main audience they are speaking to and must speak within that group norm.

Why Authority And Group Biases Are So Rampant

First, biases in general enable us to lessen our cognitive load.

The circular nature of authority and group biases may seem confusing, yet it is simple: we humans take a lot of shortcuts in our thinking. Trusting someone else or an institution or an authority removes the responsibility and cognitive load off of us individually. Going with the “wisdom of the crowd” makes sense and is easier.

We can just believe what they say.

We don’t need to Do Our Own Research if we trust an authority or a group.

We don’t need to change our thinking or learn new things.

It’s easier to go along with the group and the group’s authority.

Also, a large number of people feel good about the numbers going up in their fiat portfolio and their house values and do not want to look at the reality of the monetary expansion, inflation, debt and how it affects those who have less.

The group norms and authority reassurances feel good.

In addition, the network effects of the most common beliefs both overwhelm us and allow us to justify belief in the mass opinion. After all, it’s what almost everybody says and believes.

The more people that have historically adopted a mode of thinking, the more likely others are to adopt that same mode of thinking.

If we zoom out, this mass adoption of thought is actually a plus for Bitcoin, as the Bitcoin facts are stronger than the statements that induce fear, doubt and uncertainty.

How to De-Bias Authority And Group Biases

To help others de-bias from their authority and group biases, there are some steps that both they and you should take. Some of the aphorisms of Bitcoin apply here, with caveats.

  1. Look at your confirmation biases that apply to authority and groups, and put them aside. Seek out sources and information opposite to your own views.
  2. Do Your Own Research (DYOR) on all views with credible and well-researched sources. This may feel uncomfortable, as it’ll seed some doubt. However, doubt is not a black and white operative; many so-called facts are probabilistic and uncertain.

  • If you are a Bitcoiner, your wider research will help you better understand the wider views.
  • If you are not a Bitcoiner, your Bitcoin research will help you see the problems with the current fiat authorities and group norms.

3. Most importantly — again — question your authority and group biases. Understanding why you believe what you believe and why you don’t believe conflicting viewpoints of other groups and authorities breeds robustness, resiliency and reasonable rhetoric when your views are challenged.

Reducing Fiat FUD Network, Increasing Bitcoin Fact Network

The network effects of the long-standing use of fiat currency, the historical time authority of its complex system and ingrained authoritarian views have a huge effect on the misconceptions around Bitcoin.

As each one of us helps to reasonably, authoritatively and wisely dispel these myths, the group acceptance and increasing network effects of Bitcoin understanding will grow.

Conversely, Bitcoin itself will remain under no authority or illusion of authority; it will stay decentralized.

One person by one person, group by group, city by city, nation by nation — Bitcoin adoption will grow with or without centralization of authority and its biases.

This is a guest post by Heidi Porter. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

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A Look At Bitcoin And Biases: Price

Source: Author modification of 43/1995 from goodfreephotos.com

Source: Author modification of 43/1995 from goodfreephotos.com



You try to have the Bitcoin conversation. All you hear back is fear, uncertainty or doubt (FUD). You try to explain Bitcoin and their eyes glaze over. Often no-coiners or alt-coiners just don’t want to hear about Bitcoin.

Cognitive Biases At Play

Let’s try to understand by looking into the cognitive biases that enable the FUD and noise . Once these are understood, we can try de-biasing instead.

We define cognitive bias as, “a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own “subjective reality” from their perception of the input. An individual’s construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the worl​d.”

In short, our judgement is often not accurate in predictable ways.

To understand the systematic errors in people’s Bitcoin judgements, let’s start by looking at four biases around bitcoin’s price.

Availability And Recency Bias

Source: Drawing by Heidi Porter

Source: Drawing by Heidi Porter



“Bitcoin is too volatile!” When Bitcoin’s price changes by more than a fraction, every news source has an article, often with a language of hysterics. You cannot hide from the availability of that information.

This is availability bias, “the ​human tendency to think that examples of things that come readily to mind are more representative (of truth) than is actually the case​.”

Articles about Bitcoin’s volatility are also in recent memory. This is recency bias, “a ​cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones.” One way to reduce the availability bias is to look at more data. One way to reduce the recency bias is to look at more data over time. If you zoom out and take a long view of more bitcoin price data, the price number constantly goes up. A lot.

Source: @DanHeld Twitter

Source: @DanHeld Twitter



Bitcoin can be volatile when looking at a short timeframe, but bitcoin has a steadily increasing price over time. “Buy and Hold” is the standard advice with regards to the stock market. Do the same with Bitcoin; buy and hold. Or, as Bitcoiners are fond of saying: Hodl. Because “Number go up” over the long term.

Unit Bias

Source: mohemed_hassan on pixabay.com

Source: mohemed_hassan on pixabay.com



Next up is unit bias​, “the concept that buyers are more enticed to buy a whole ​unit​ of a given currency instead of a fractional quantity.” Many people think they need to buy a whole bitcoin. They don’t know that the smallest unit of bitcoin is not 1 BTC; it’s 1 “satoshi” (“sat” for short).

We know:

100 cents = 1 dollar

We can similarly say:

100,000,000 sats = 1 BTC

Buying 0.00034500 BTC seems like a paltry, pointless amount because of unit bias. To de-bias the unit bias, simply focus on the smaller unit. Denominating it as buying 34,500 sats is much more enticing, even though this is the exact same amount of bitcoin! People should first aspire to become a sat millionaire (0.01 BTC) and then set their sights on maybe someday accumulating enough sats until they hold a whole bitcoin. There’s no need to view your holdings in tiny fractions of BTC. Just stack sats!

Anchoring Bias

Looking at the recent price of Bitcoin, it’s easy to anchor on that price and think “It’s too late, the price is too high. I should have bought it five or 10 years ago.”

The anchoring bias is when “an individual’s decisions are influenced by a particular reference point or ‘anchor’.”

● Bitcoin at $100: It’s too late to buy bitcoin

● Bitcoin at $1,000: It’s too late to buy bitcoin

● Bitcoin at $10,000: It’s too late to buy bitcoin

This trajectory actually demonstrates one way to de-bias the anchoring bias. Zoom out and choose a different anchor. You can also talk to more people to get a different perspective and anchor on a different number. Or you can also look across other similar areas and see that your anchoring number should not be an inhibitor. If you look at the stock market, was it too late to buy when the Dow was at 15,000? If bitcoin goes to $100,000, was it “too late” to buy bitcoin at $50,000?

Hindsight Bias Or “We Knew This All Along”

Next up is hindsight bias, “the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were.”

Source: geralt on pixabay.com

Source: geralt on pixabay.com



How many people claimed to know that bitcoin’s price would go way up all along, that it would hit $30,000, $40,000, $50,000? My bet is that those same people will be sitting pretty “knowing” that bitcoin will eventually reach$100,000, $150,000, $200,000.

Hindsight bias is one bias that all current Bitcoiners would like to experience about bitcoin’s price! No need to de-bias.

Let’s All Lead People Past the FUD

We’ve only looked at one set of biases around one area of bitcoin: price. Other areas to explore include biases such as authority, reactive devaluation and in-group or conformity biases with respect to high profile political, business and financial figures’ view of bitcoin.

We can also look at the availability and recency bias around the often unfactual focus on the “E”in the ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) narrative, even though bitcoin also has huge “S” and “G” benefits. Yet another area is biases around ambiguity and functional fixedness, which affect thinking around the varied functions and utility of Bitcoin.

Most of the erroneous critiques about Bitcoin stem from biases and noise.

Understanding the bitcoin biases and what we can do to de-bias them is a road to better understanding, further adoption of Bitcoin and the better world we Bitcoiners think that will enable.

Biased or not.

This is a guest post by Heidi Porter. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

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$BTC Ascending wedge (Bitcoin loves to break these to the upside), more potential bear divs and massively decreasing volume on the rise. I hope this rips up, but my bias for a scalp is still short. Once again, I am always net long by a huge margin. Shorts are only hedges.

$BTC

Ascending wedge (Bitcoin loves to break these to the upside), more potential bear divs and massively decreasing volume on the rise.

I hope this rips up, but my bias for a scalp is still short.

Once again, I am always net long by a huge margin. Shorts are only hedges. https://t.co/w7ZdqutoSt

Source

Tagged : / / / / / / / / / /
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 27,785.44 2.39%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,659.34 1.02%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 65.87 1.04%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 247.53 5.19%