Crypto Market Closes in on Worst January Performance Since 2015

Key Takeaways

  • The crypto market is approaching its worst January close since 2015 after dropping 22.7% this month.
  • The market is over $1 trillion from its peak.
  • Though Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets are suffering, the NFT market is still booming.

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The crypto market has shed $500 million of its value this month. 

Crypto Market Heads for January Close 

It looks like the crypto bull market could be over—at least for fungible assets. 

Source: TradingView

It’s been a rough few weeks for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets after the market has shed over $1 trillion in value since its November peak. Now, the market is approaching its worst January close since 2015. 

According to data from TradingView, the global cryptocurrency market cap has lost $500 million this month, tumbling from around $2.2 trillion to $1.7 trillion today. Though severe, the 22.7% drop is not the only weak monthly performance crypto enthusiasts have endured over the last few months. In December, the market tanked 15.5%. The market also suffered a brutal crash last May amid fears of China’s Bitcoin mining ban and an overexhausted environment, closing the month 24.1% in the red. 

While the May crash was the most severe the market has seen for some time, this month’s performance looks set to go down as crypto’s worst January on record. The two years prior to this, the market has kicked off the year with a green month. In January 2019, the market shed around 9.4% of its value. January 2018 closed 15.3% in the red, kicking off an extended bear trend that saw the market tank 80% in the space of a year. By the end of 2018, Ethereum had bled 94% from a high of $1,430 to $80. Many other assets fell over 95% and never recovered to new highs. 

At press time, Bitcoin is 44.5% off its $69,000 all-time high. Ethereum is 45.7% off its peak, and many of the winners of 2021—including Solana and Axie Infinity—are over 60% short of their highs. The dog-themed meme coins Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are respectively down about 80% and 75%. 

While major assets have been hard hit of late thanks in part to Omicron fears and the Federal Reserve’s threat of interest rate hikes, some corners of crypto are booming. NFTs have fared particularly well in recent weeks, likely because most traders price their digital collectibles in Ethereum. According to data from Dune Analytics, OpenSea has seen a record $4.8 billion in volume this month as demand for hot collections like Bored Ape Yacht Club and Cool Cats soars.  

Disclosure: At the time of writing, the author of this feature owned ETH and several other cryptocurrencies. 

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A Never Wrong Bearish Bitcoin Signal Just Triggered

Bitcoin is likely to enter a bearish market as a never-before wrong signal just got triggered.

Bitcoin Headed Towards Bear Market?

As pointed out by a pseudonymous trader on Twitter, there is a certain signal that has consistently been right in the previous BTC cycles.

The signal in question is the Super Guppy indicator, a method that is based on exponential moving averages. Simply put, the technique is used to capture the difference between the price and value of Bitcoin.

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Using Super Guppy, it becomes possible to tell whether the market is bearish or bullish.

Let’s take a look at the previous Bitcoin cycles. Starting with the 2011 run, here is how the Super Guppy chart looked like:

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The 2011 BraveNewCoin Liquid Index For Bitcoin

Note that when the market becomes bullish, Super Guppy turns green. Similarly, for a bearish one, the indicator turns red.

As you can see in the above chart, Super Guppy was right about the Bitcoin market during the period.

Next, here is how the 2014 run looked like:

Bitcoin 2014 rally

Bitcoin 2014 rally

The 2014 run forms two peaks before going all the way down

Similar to the 2011 run, the 2014 cycle was also predicted accurately by Super Guppy. Here, another bullish reversal happened in the middle of the cycle, which the technique was also right about.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Hash Rate Goes On Death Spiral Post China’s Crackdown On Miners

Finally, to add to the credibility of the method, here is the 2018 cycle:

Super Guppy indicated correctly about the market during this cycle as well.

A common misconception regarding the method of moving averages is that it is a lagging indicator, and it only notes the past trend. However, that is untrue; Super Guppy is rather a warning for the upcoming market trend.

Is It Truly A Bearish Market?

Now that it seems like the Supper Guppy indicator does seem to hold some weight given past cycles, here is how the 2020 BTC cycle looks like at the moment:

The current cycle

As Super Guppy has turned red now, and given the pattern of the other curves, it seems like the cycle is entering into a bearish trend.

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Stuck Near $35K, What Could Trigger A Strong Rally

However, it doesn’t mean BTC is going to hit rock-bottom. It’s possible the bear market is only short-term, and soon the indicator might turn green again.

Also, some other signals show that Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak yet, which means the cycle might indeed see another bullish reversal.

At the time of writing, BTC is priced around $36k, up 14% in the past 7 days.

Bitcoin seems to regain an upwards trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Some other signals also show that whales have started accumulating, which is another positive sign for the market.

Featured image from, charts from


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A Never Wrong Bearish Bitcoin Signal Just Triggered

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@HodlThatCornSir @iambroots Imagine giving a fuck about what Bear-roots says. This same little budget weekend wrestler said $RSR was going to 11sats. You’re as good as dead to me after comments like that. I refuse to engage anymore. Me and the family flying to financial freedom 👨🏽‍🚀🚀🌚

@HodlThatCornSir @iambroots Imagine giving a fuck about what Bear-roots says.

This same little budget weekend wrestler said $RSR was going to 11sats.

You’re as good as dead to me after comments like that.

I refuse to engage anymore.

Me and the family flying to financial freedom 👨🏽‍🚀🚀🌚


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Bitcoin: Bull or Bear Market After Surging Above $19K? Here’s What Analysts are Saying

After dropping below $17,700, Bitcoin’s price has swiftly rebounded to trade over $19,000 in the past few days. On Dec. 13, Bitcoin’s price rose above the $19,000 level, and is currently trading at $19,186.

Bitcoin bull or bear market after hitting 19k.jpg

Bitcoin suffered a correction last week as the US dollar began to gain strength. As there were news of stricter cryptocurrency regulation to come out, many investors were afraid to cash in. However, since the news of MicroStrategy to purchase over $600 million worth of Bitcoin came out, Bitcoin’s price has been positively impacted.

Nic Carter, the co-founder of CoinMetrics and founding at Castle Island Ventures recently commented on this move, saying:

“There’s no way you can buy $650m worth of BTC without a market impact. starting to question my beloved EMH here. Never before have we seen a whale publicly announce, in advance, that they would be taking a position in specific size market should obviously be incorporating that info. My point is that the market should logically be anticipating the market impact of the forecasted buy (which will absolutely be nonzero), not that I expect Saylor to smash ‘market buy’ on Coinbase.”

A cryptocurrency trader noted that it could only be a matter of time before Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high. The trader explained while pointing to the below chart:

“Perfect S/R flip at $18,600 and setup exceeded expectations as price pretty much ignored $19,100 and went straight to the the resistance high at $19,300. Lock in some profits… Took some profit here on the long since $17,600, but honestly I think we smash ATH soon.”

Bitcoin price chart Dec 14.jpeg

Source: TradingView via Twitter

Risk of a correction after BTC hits $19K?

Although investors have been bullish on Bitcoin since it recovered and surged to over $19K, crypto analytics firm Santiment noted that there could be a price reversal in store. Santiment observed that during the bull run towards $19K, Bitcoin had its largest token age consumed spike in 40 days. The analytics firm explained:

“In the midst of #Bitcoin making its return above $19k this weekend, our data identified the largest token consumed spike in 40 days. This indicates that large amounts of previously dormant $BTC have just been moved. Typically, price reversals occur following these spikes, and this one coincided with the latest price local top just above $19.3k 10 hours ago.”

Image source: Shutterstock


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Bitcoin (BTC) $ 26,559.12 0.13%
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,593.47 0.34%
Litecoin (LTC) $ 64.48 0.15%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 207.70 0.23%