Bitcoin will Reach $70,000 Soon if the Federal Reserve Cuts Rates

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s ex-CEO, recently Suggested that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve could propel Bitcoin to the $70,000 mark, simultaneously rejuvenating the US banking sector. This assertion adds another layer to the ongoing debate among investors about the impending direction of the financial markets. 

Historical trends underscore the symbiotic relationship between the Federal Reserve’s monetary decisions and Bitcoin’s trajectory. Notably, during the pandemic’s fiscal response, Bitcoin’s ascent outpaced the Fed’s balance sheet expansion by an impressive 129%. Such data points underscore the market’s keen response to the Fed’s moves, particularly under Chairperson Powell’s tenure.

Yet, the plot thickened post-March 2022. Bucking the popular sentiment that anticipated a pause in rate hikes, the Federal Reserve surprised markets by implementing three additional hikes. This development spurred a reevaluation among market participants and analysts alike.

A salient query emerged during the Korea Blockchain Week conference: Can Bitcoin’s valuation sustain its upward momentum if central banks, including the Federal Reserve, persist with their hawkish stance? This question gains prominence against a backdrop where the US skirts a recession, inflationary pressures persist, and financial stability remains intact. If these variables hold, it’s conceivable that central banks might maintain their current trajectory.

Drawing from historical parallels, post-WW2 Asian economies, which thrived on exports, leveraged financial repression—a scenario where nominal GDP growth eclipses bond yields. This strategy facilitated affordable capital access for industrial entities, fostering rapid modernization and ensuring job stability.

In this discourse, the ‘Real Yield’—derived by offsetting the Government Bond Yield with Nominal GDP Growth—emerges as pivotal. An analysis using the 2-year US Treasury yield as a proxy indicates that real rates, despite aggressive rate hikes by the Fed, barely remain in the positive territory. A shift to longer tenors, like the 10-year or 30-year yields, reveals persistently negative real rates, dampening the allure of long-term bonds.

Reflecting on the fiscal windfall during the 2020-2021 bull run, the affluent segment significantly bolstered tax coffers. However, 2022 ushered in a paradigm shift with the Fed’s rate hike decision, exerting downward pressure on financial markets. An illustrative chart, benchmarked at 100, delineates the performance trajectory of key indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. This pivot resulted in dwindling capital gains tax revenues, with 2021 data from the US Congressional Budget Office indicating that realized capital gains constituted nearly 9% of the GDP.

Current trends intimate a surge in government expenditure, especially in sectors catering to demographic shifts and a multipolar global order. With escalating expenses and tapering revenues, fiscal deficits are poised to widen. Projections suggest that by the close of the year, the US Treasury will be compelled to introduce bonds worth an additional $1.85 trillion to address legacy debt and the fiscal deficit. As of the second quarter’s culmination, the annualized interest outlay by the US Treasury hovers around $1 trillion.

Decoding this dynamic reveals a cyclical pattern: The Federal Reserve’s inflation-containment strategy, manifested through rate hikes, necessitates augmented bond issuance by the US Treasury at steeper rates. This dynamic inadvertently amplifies nominal GDP growth, driven by affluent segments channeling their interest earnings into service consumption.

Contrary to the prevailing narrative that associates rate hikes with adverse implications for volatile assets like Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has registered a commendable 29% appreciation since March 10. This resilience suggests that sustained rate hikes by the Fed could plunge real rates further into negative territory.

Market dynamics indicate a pronounced focus on the Federal Reserve’s nominal rate, overshadowing the real rate juxtaposed against the US’s robust nominal GDP growth. This skewed perception might elucidate Bitcoin’s inability to breach the anticipated $70,000 threshold. As the inefficacy of bonds, even with nominal rates at 5.5%, becomes palpable, investors might recalibrate their portfolios in favor of tangible assets like Bitcoin and AI-centric equities.

In summation, while prevailing sentiment leans towards a potential rate cut and a revival of quantitative easing, the robustness of digital currencies, epitomized by Bitcoin, in navigating rate hikes is evident. This evolving dynamic between Bitcoin and Federal Reserve policies, especially in a high debt-to-GDP milieu, suggests a potential recalibration of conventional economic paradigms.

Disclaimer & Copyright Notice: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. This material is the exclusive property of Blockchain.News. Unauthorized use, duplication, or distribution without express permission is prohibited. Proper credit and direction to the original content are required for any permitted use.

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Why Bitcoin May Crash Below $20,000 Soon

Predicting Bitcoin’s Price Through Historical Data

Historical trends and data points often shed light on potential future movements, especially in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies. September, based on our comprehensive analysis, traditionally poses challenges for Bitcoin, the leading digital currency.

In September 2022, Bitcoin experienced a decrease of -3.09%. This decline was the most notable for a September month since the year 2014. Projecting forward, if 2023 follows this previous trend, we can anticipate the cryptocurrency to touch around the $25,107 mark by the close of the month. However, widening our lens to account for an average September decline, which sits at roughly -9.22% over the considered years, this figure might recede even further to approximately $23,530.

Amplitude analysis serves as another tool to gauge the potential future trajectory of Bitcoin. Revisiting the data from September 2018, a standout month with the lowest amplitude since 2014 (with the exclusion of 2015 and 2016 due to their respective price increases), Bitcoin’s price underwent a fluctuation of about 19.51%. Taking into account the current month’s opening price of $25,927, should Bitcoin tread the amplitude path of 2018, a downward spiral to a figure around $20,867.67 is conceivable. Current market conditions, which many analysts view as unfavorable, inject a layer of uncertainty to Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.

Diving deeper into historical amplitude patterns, the average for this parameter over the years hovers around 27.21%. Based on this percentage, a plausible scenario might see Bitcoin nearing a concerning valuation of $18,860 in the foreseeable future.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin’s price trends remain under intense scrutiny by both traders and investors. Currently, its value hovers around the $25,800 mark. A notable setback from the bullish momentum of the 10-daily moving averages emphasizes the significance of the $26,000 support level for Bitcoin. This threshold is pivotal for traders; any falter here could trigger an downtrend.


Source: Binance

Adding to the intricacies is the crucial $25,000 support line. Bitcoin has displayed commendable tenacity since August 17th, consistently staying above this mark. Notably, the upward trending line for Bitcoin also converges around this $25,000 zone. Should the currency break this line, the implications could be severe. Without any clear support immediately below, Bitcoin might be vulnerable to a sharp dive, potentially spiraling down to the $20,000 range.

Given these dynamics, it’s essential for investors to remain vigilant, harnessing both historical insights and in-depth technical analysis to steer through the capricious nature of Bitcoin’s valuation.

Disclaimer & Copyright Notice: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. This material is the exclusive property of Blockchain.News. Unauthorized use, duplication, or distribution without express permission is prohibited. Proper credit and direction to the original content are required for any permitted use.

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Bitcoin Surges Past $28,000 and GBTC Discount Narrows to 17%

Following Grayscale Investments’ decisive win in its lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin’s value reached an apex of $28,142 on Binance. Concurrently, the discount rate for Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced a notable contraction, shrinking from a previous 25% to a current 17%.

The court ruling has instilled renewed confidence in the cryptocurrency market, leading to bullish sentiment and immediate market reactions. On August 29, 2023, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Grayscale Investments, allowing the firm to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). This groundbreaking decision has set a precedent for digital asset managers and has opened new avenues for regulated cryptocurrency investments.

The market’s swift response to the legal victory was evident not just in Bitcoin’s new peak but also in the increased demand for GBTC shares, as reflected in the rapidly compressing discount rate.

Digital Currency Group (DCG), the parent company of Grayscale, expressed their satisfaction with the court’s decision. In a tweet, DCG stated, “Today’s ruling by the D.C. Circuit in favor of @Grayscale and $GBTC is a historic victory for crypto advocates. We are pleased with the immense progress that this decision represents.”

The rise in Bitcoin’s price and the decrease in the GBTC discount rate are both direct results of Grayscale’s success in their legal battle against the SEC. The regulatory environment is always shifting, and market players will be paying careful attention to how recent developments and upcoming changes will affect the bitcoin ecosystem as a whole as this process continues.

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From $5,000 to $120,000: Standard Chartered’s Controversial Bitcoin Price Predictions

According to Retuers, Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin’s price to reach $120,000 by 2024, reaching $50,000 this year and $120,000 by 2024. This upward trend aligns with the recent increase in Bitcoin’s value, encouraging miners to hold onto the digital currency.

Standard Chartered predicted earlier this year that the price of Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2024, and that the challenging “crypto winter” had ended.

However, it’s crucial to note that Standard Chartered’s past Bitcoin price predictions haven’t always hit the mark.

In September 2021, the bank’s cryptocurrency research unit predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by early 2022, along with a significant Ether price spike. However, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic drop of more than 75% in 2022.

In December 2022, they issued a warning of a potential plunge to $5,000. Eric Robertsen, global head of research at Standard Chartered Bank, explained, “Yields plunge along with technology shares, and while the Bitcoin sell-off decelerates, the damage has been done. More and more crypto firms and exchanges find themselves with insufficient liquidity, leading to further bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets.” However, Bitcoin’s price action since then showed that the lowest price since its record high in November 2021 was $15,476 on November 11, 2022, defying the bank’s prediction.

Despite these past missteps, the current market sentiment aligns with Standard Chartered’s optimistic view. On July 6, Matrixport reported that Bitcoin hit a one-year high on June 22, 2023, signalling the end of bear markets and the onset of a new bull run. Drawing from past trends in 2013, 2017, and 2021, Matrixport predicts a 100% chance of another massive Bitcoin bull market by 2024, with a price target of $125,000.


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Cerus Markets Launches its Mobile Trading App $10,000 Giveaway

Labuan, Malaysia, 2nd March, 2023, Chainwire

Cerus Markets is excited to launch its Mobile Trading App Giveaway!

Announcing an upcoming release of its trading platform, Cerus Markets is excited to offer traders an opportunity to be the first to access its Mobile Trading App and take a chance to win a share of $10,000 in cash.

Cerus Markets is a regulated crypto broker offering a revolutionary way to trade digital assets. With its Mobile Trading App, traders will be able to access derivatives that allow speculation on major global Stocks, Commodities and Metals trading paired against currencies and crypto – all with zero fees and leverage up to 100:1. 

To register for the Giveaway, visit, sign up for the waitlist and download the trading app once it becomes available. 

A total of three winners will be chosen at random and announced via email and social media. $5,000 is awarded to the first winner, $3,000 to the second and $2,000 to the third.

Sign up for a $10,000 Cash Giveaway at

About Cerus Markets

Cerus Markets Limited is a multi-asset broker authorized and regulated by the Labuan Financial Service Authority. Cerus Markets represents a new type of global brokerage providing access to cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks and commodities all from one trading platform – all without fees. Users can access from their mobile device or web browser, and never miss a trade. 

Cerus Markets’ goal is to enable market access for all trading levels, therefore there are no entry fees that allow traders to place positions on multiple digital assets with as little as $50.

Learn more about Cerus Markets at

Socials: Telegram  | Twitter  | Instagram 


Marketing Director
Veronica Imasheva
Cerus Markets


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Bitcoin’s $100K price target returns as BTC price breaks out of bull pennant

Bitcoin (BTC) looks poised to pursue a run-up towards $100,000 as its price breaks out of a classic bullish structure.

Dubbed as Bull Pennant, the setup represents a price consolidation period with converging trendlines that form after a strong move higher. It ultimately prompts the price to break out in the direction of its previous trend to a level typically at length higher by as much as the size of the initial large move.

On Bitcoin weekly charts, the cryptocurrency appeared to have been trending inside a similar consolidation structure, with its price fluctuating inside a Triangle-like structure following a strong move higher (Flagpole).

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring Bull Pennant setup. Source:

Last week, Bitcoin broke above the structure’s upper trendline as it rose by 13.5% with rising trading volumes to boot. As a result, the cryptocurrency’s breakout move indicated its potential to rise by as much as the size of its previous trend (nearly $50,000).

Measuring from the point of breakout (~$48,200), the Bull Pennant’s upside target thereby comes out to be another $50,000 higher, i.e., almost $100,000.

Other predictions

The technical setup projected Bitcoin at $100,000 no longer after many analysts envisioned the cryptocurrency at the same, six-digital valuation.

A team of researchers at Standard Chartered, headed by its global head of emerging market currency research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicted BTC to hit $100,000 by early next year. They cited Bitcoin’s potential to become “the dominant peer-to-peer payment method for the global unbanked” behind their bullish prediction.

David Gokhshtein, the founder of Gokhshtein Media and PAC Global, also imagined Bitcoin above $100,000 before the end of 2021. The executive based his bullish outlook on the amount of available fiat liquidity in the market, which, according to him, has prompted leading Wall Street players to purchase Bitcoin.

“Not everybody’s going to come out publicly and tell you that they’re buying bitcoin, but they are,” Gokhshtein told Business Insider.

“There’s too much money in the market. Way too much money. Institutions did not come in here to play for five minutes.”

His statements appeared after George Soros’ investment firm revealed at a Bloomberg event that it owns Bitcoin, sending the cryptocurrency spiking. That soon followed up with JPMorgan & Chase’s latest report that showed institutional investors’ preference for Bitcoin over Gold as an inflation hedge.

In an earlier study published in May, the banking giant projected Bitcoin to reach $140,000 in the long term.

Holding sentiment on rise

On-chain indicators highlighted a rise in holding sentiment among Bitcoin traders.

Related: Tesla may have made more money holding Bitcoin than selling cars

In detail, the Bitcoin reserves held across all crypto exchanges recently dropped to their lowest levels in a year, as per data provided by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The decline illustrated traders’ intention to hold their Bitcoin tokens close than trading them for other fiat/digital assets.

BTC reserves across all exchanges. Source:

Therefore, declining Bitcoin balances on exchanges typically follow up with rise in the BTC price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.