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The start of a new year provides an opportunity to reflect on the past and move forward with intention and purpose. And while other crypto personalities started 2022 with bullish predictions, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin chose to travel back in time, revisiting some of the things he predicted over the last ten years. He also shared what he learned and what he thinks about the subjects today.
As a programmer, writer, and an active member of the cryptocurrency space since its early years, Buterin has said, written and predicted a lot of things about the industry. Some he nailed, some he missed, and others very laughable. But for one thing, he doesn’t shy away from admitting when he’s wrong about his predictions.
Before launching Ethereum in 2015, Buterin was bullish on Bitcoin: he even wrote an article in July 2013 explaining the “internationality and censorship resistance” of Bitcoin and how the leading cryptocurrency can help protect the purchasing power and wealth of citizens in countries like Iran, Argentina, China, and Africa.
The Ethereum co-founder said in a Twitter thread that he visited Argentina last week and he noticed that crypto adoption was high but stablecoin adoption was higher as businesses use USDT for their operations.
Last week, I actually went to Argentina! My verdict: generally correct. Cryptocurrency adoption is high but stablecoin adoption is really high too; lots of businesses operate in USDT. Though of course, if USD itself starts showing more problems this could change.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) January 1, 2022
Buterin then went on to reflect the negative impact of Bitcoin regulation he predicted about ten years ago. At the time, the programmer argued that “Bitcoin is resisting the government not by being clever about what ‘legal category’ it’s in, but rather by being technologically censorship-proof.”
Today, Buterin believes Bitcoin’s decentralization would allow it to survive in any super-hostile regulatory climate, but at a cost – “It could not thrive.”
“Successful censorship resistance strategy requires a combination of technological robustness and public legitimacy,” he wrote.
The Ethereum co-founder recalled how he was briefly an apologist for PoW energy waste in 2012. However, he became excited when he learned about proof of stake as a promising alternative in 2013 and he fully bought the idea by 2014. Buterin tagged his transition as a broader intellectual evolution.”
Buterin also highlighted his predictions about the timeline of Ethereum’s PoS and Sharding while admitting that they were wrong and laughable. He also noted that underestimating the complexity of software development was his core underlying mistake.
But what was my core underlying mistake? IMO it’s that I deeply underestimated the complexity of software development, and the diff between a python PoC and a proper production impl. 2014-era ideas were waaay too complex, eg. “12-dimensional hypercubes”:https://t.co/MIKWiowHrB pic.twitter.com/0FNf6BY9sE
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) January 1, 2022
Next on Buterin’s list was his comments on the internet of money. He still maintains that “the internet of money should not cost more than 5 cents per transaction,” and that’s why Ethereum developers are working round the clock to improve the network’s scalability.
Buterin also recalled an article where he defended altcoins in 2013 for three points – different chains optimize for different goals, costs of having many chains are low, and the need for an alternative in case the core development team is wrong.
But his views about some altcoins have changed drastically. For instance, Buterin said he was optimistic about Bitcoin Cash in 2017. However, the programmer sees BCH as a failure now because of the rebellious nature of its community.
Today, I would call BCH mostly a failure. My main takeaway: communities formed around a rebellion, even if they have a good cause, often have a hard time long term, because they value bravery over competence and are united around resistance rather than a coherent way forward.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) January 1, 2022
Citing Ethereum’s whitepaper, Vitalik Buterin noted that he predicted Decentralized Finance (DeFi) among other decentralized applications, but he completely missed NFTs.
A lot correct (basically predicted “defi”), though incentivized file storage + compute hasn’t taken off that much (yet?), and of course I completely missed NFTs.
I would say the biggest thing I missed in the details is collusion issues in DAO governance: https://t.co/cezOk10KQ0
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) January 1, 2022
Conclusively, Buterin admitted that his “thinking about politics and large-scale human organization was more naive then,” adding that he made a couple of early mistakes which he corrected quickly. The programmer also noted that he had “good instincts early on for avoiding the craziest parts of bitcoin maximalist thinking.”
* On tech, I was more often right on abstract ideas than on production software dev issues. Had to learn to understand the latter over time
* I have a deeper appreciation now of the need for even more simplicity than I thought we needed
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) January 1, 2022
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The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
Popular meme crypto project Shiba Inu (SHIB) is set to launch its very own decentralized autonomous organization (DAO).
In a new blog post, Shiba Inu developers say they are going to release DOGGY DAO, SHIB’s new governance protocol, in two separate phases.
The first phase, which is set to launch in the coming days, will include provisions for users to decide which crypto projects and trading pairs will be included on ShibaSwap, SHIB’s decentralized exchange (DEX).
“DAO 1 is focused on providing immediate power to the community in order to decide which crypto projects and pairs on the ShibaSwap WOOF Pools will be and how the BONE rewards (allocation points) are to be distributed amongst them.”
BONE is the governance token of the ShibaSwap protocol. Its staked version, tBONE, will be used to vote within DOGGY DAO.
“In order to cast a vote to list projects, users must stake their BONE (to get tBONE), also distributing their amount of choice to weigh-in and provide to that very pair. The more they weigh in, the more votes a project achieves, the more added pairing (AP) it will have.
What happens next? On the following Monday, after launch, APs and pairs will be determined depending on the results of the voting process…
The executed pairs will be showcased for a period of 14 days, and their APs will remain there until the next voting occurs and finishes. The week, before the expiry date, voting will begin once again. A batch of new pairs or rewards will be decided and selected by the community.”
The second phase of the DAO will implement a system that allows users to send generic proposals to be considered.
Shiba Inu is exchanging hands at $0.000034 at time of writing, a 13% decrease from its seven-day peak of $0.000039
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Nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, have become one of the most discussed markets in the crypto space this year. A recent report from Cointelegraph Research found that NFT sales are aiming for a $17.7 billion record by the end of 2021.
This may very well be the case, as a number of mainstream brands have begun launching NFTs. According to recent research from Bain & Company and the online luxury fashion platform Farfetch, digital interactions with consumers are becoming increasingly important for brands. The report specifically states that “digital interaction with peers is on the rise when choosing to purchase a product.” As such, nonfungible tokens tied directly to brands and their consumers are now more important than ever before.
While it’s notable that mainstream labels like Adidas, Dolce & Gabbana and others have already released NFTs, the utility behind nonfungible tokens is proving to be the real key to a fashion brand’s success. Karinna Grant, co-chief executive officer of The Dematerialised, a digital fashion marketplace, told Cointelegraph that utilities are what give nonfungible tokens purpose and value:
“Just as in real-life, where a physical card can scan you access into a club, a utility can be anything from using the NFT as a membership pass to the ability to wear an asset in a game, or incorporating a sustainability or social responsibility benefit for purchasers of the NFT.”
Grant noted that The Dematerialised has experimented with multiple forms of utility with each of the fashion NFT drips the platform has launched. She explained that previous releases have included utilities like wearing or playing with a 3D asset in augmented reality, or unlocking access to brand communities. “With Rebecca Minkoff’s sold-out NFT collection in September, the highest tier of NFTs unlocked VIP access to brand experiences for a year.” She added: “Karl Lagerfeld’s “x Endless” collection provided an opportunity for owners of Karl collectibles, an IRL and URL ticket to a brand event in Paris in 2022, which will feature another launch where only Karl holders will be invited to take part.”
It’s become clear that fashion NFTs must offer some type of consumer engagement, allowing brands to interact with individuals in both the physical and the digital worlds. Avery Akkineni, president of VaynerNFT — an NFT consultancy agency — told Cointelegraph that while the utility of some NFTs can simply be for the sake of art, brands launching NFTs require deeper functionality built upon an existing community.
For example, Akkineni shared that VaynerNFT recently helped the global fashion house, Coach, launch its first NFT collection, which featured eight Coach Holiday animals from the brands’ Snow City digital game. Akkineni added that the NFT launch was also in celebration of Coach’s 80th birthday, which resulted in the creation of 80 unique digital art pieces featuring the eight Coach holiday animals.
Akkineni explained that each digital Coach NFT also grants the right for the initial holders to receive one complimentary made-to-order physical rogue bag in 2022. “Something that Coach wanted to do was to explore this new world of NFTs, but wanted to in a way that wouldn’t commercialize their IP or ask consumers to pay for anything,” she said. To efficiently engage with the Coach community, Akkineni mentioned that the Coach NFTs were given away for free during Dec. 17–24 this year:
“The Coach NFTs were claimable on the Polygon blockchain. Coach made sure not to commercialize too early and to learn about the space to gauge demand to see if their audience was interested in NFTs.”
The fact that brands must now interact with consumers both virtually and in real-life has also added an extra layer of technical utility to NFTs. As Bain & Company’s latest luxury goods report states, “new keywords and phrases — such as metaverse, personalization at scale, and tech stack — will come to the fore as the industry grows and evolves.”
As such, some companies have started to explore NFTs in the Metaverse. For example, Pet Krewe — a pet apparel e-commerce company — recently opened a digital commercial space in the Metaverse community known as “ShibaVerse.” Allison Albert, founder and chief executive officer of Pet Krewe, told Cointelegraph that the company is promoting its brand by featuring its NFT pet clothing in a Metaverse containing balloon dogs called “Shibaloons.”
According to Albert, Pet Krewe’s NFTs will be worn as unique designs that fit the Shibaloons. While Albert pointed out that these costumes can be held and swapped out on different Shibaloon dogs within ShibaVerse, Pet Krewe is using this digital commercial space as another form of brand engagement or marketing. “We can connect with dog-loving customers in a dog-centric Metaverse. This is reaching our customer base in an entirely different marketing element.”
The 18-year-old fashion label Mishka has also entered the NFT space with its famous eyeball logo. The collection of 6,696 NFTs is known as “The Keep Watch Crew,” or “KWC” for short. Greg Mishka, founder of Mishka NFT and the Keep Watch Crew, told Cointelegraph that Keep Watch is the most iconic and well-known branding element of Mishka, for both fans and the streetwear and fashion community.
Given the label’s strong user base, Mishka explained that the KWC NFTs are the next chapter for the brand. “The KWC is your ticket into what we like to call the MISHKAVERSE. Immediate utilities include lifetime discounts and exclusive merchandise,” he explained. Mishka added that the label is working on integrating Web3 elements to their website. “This would allow for consumers to verify the NFTs they own in order to access exclusive pages and drops via the website.”
While the utility of fashion NFTs extends beyond simply offering digital items connected to physical goods, some in the industry believe that this is still one of the most important functions. For instance, Grant noted that connecting physical items to digital NFTs is a critical part of the adoption process for nonfungible tokens of all categories. She elaborated:
“We have a very interesting split perspective with our current community, with half asking for more physicals and half asking more digital-only. However, when we survey outside of our current community the figure is much higher. This makes sense as first-time or new NFT owners tend to still hold more traditional beliefs that physical products are more “valuable” than digital ones.”
Echoing Grant, Mishka commented that it’s important to have physical items that can be claimed or achieved by acquiring something in the Metaverse since most consumers still live in the “real world.”
This is why it shouldn’t come as a surprise that a mainstream fashion label like Coach gifted NFT holders with physical made-to-order rogue bags. Interestingly enough though, Akkineni mentioned that sometimes NFT holders don’t redeem their physical items, which has proven to be the case for other drops associated with consumer-facing brands. “VaynerNFT did a collaboration called “Anwar Carrots x Veefriends,” which was a collection sold at Nordstrom and made available to all “Self-Aware Hare” NFT holders. It was only after some reminders that the holders did claim the physical items,” she commented.
The rise of NFTs in 2021 has demonstrated growth moving forward for major brands. While companies like Nike have already taken steps to enter the Metaverse, more labels will follow suit. This has become the case as the world moves toward digital business models, which have also been promoted by the rise of COVID-19. For instance, Albert explained that Pet Krewe is still unsure of how COVID-19 is going to play out in 2022, noting that current supply chains are still being disrupted:
“We need to hedge our bets on alternative revenue streams. Entering into a metaverse that aligns with our own company values means that we can add additional revenue streams through art NFTs and digital wearables.”
Grant further remarked that The Dematerialised is excited for “behavior-changing launches,” which include using NFTs to disrupt physical production methods. However, it’s important to point out that brands will face challenges along the way.
According to Grant, fashion labels will encounter three main obstacles, with the first being a shift in thinking when it comes to the value of Web3 and digital ownership. Secondly, Grant explained that understanding the purpose and narrative of an NFT launch is important: “We support launches that are part of long term strategic commitments to Web3, not a marketing gimmick to briefly drive revenue.”
Finally, Grant pointed out that it will be challenging for major brands to ensure a 3D asset design pipeline in house. Yet Grant remains optimistic that these challenges will be resolved: “Mainstream adoption will come as more major fashion brands, influencers and creators get involved.”
Cobie is taking a novel approach to get NFT skeptics to come around to the technology, with mixed results.
One of crypto’s most prolific traders is offering to pay some of the technology’s loudest detractors to start using Ethereum.
Jordan Fish, who operates under the alias Cobie and was recently selected as one of Crypto Briefing’s top heroes of the year for 2021, offered $10,000 to several Twitter users after they expressed anti-crypto sentiments in response to a tweet storm he posted this weekend.
Cobie co-hosts the popular crypto podcast UpOnly. He’s also known to have built a large portfolio of Ethereum and other digital assets over the course of several years in the space. In a Saturday thread, he discussed the backlash NFT technology has received from the gaming community in recent months.
The outrage from gamers over the inclusion of NFTs is an astronomical unwitting vote against self-interests.
If gaming cos are able to build more sustainable revenue models without paywall DLC, NFTs can improve player experience even if you opt out of buying them yourself.
— Cobie (@cobie) January 1, 2022
“The outrage from gamers over the inclusion of NFTs is an astronomical unwitting vote against self-interests,” he wrote. “Why would a gamer not want to own their own in-game progress and achievements? It seems only beneficial for users to own those items personally, instead of the gaming company retaining ownership.”
NFTs, otherwise known as non-fungible tokens, could be disruptive in the gaming industry as they create a way for players to have ownership over their assets. While many major corporations have looked to adopt NFTs as they have gained traction over the last year, the technology has been divisive among both gamers and gaming companies. In October, Steam, the world’s largest gaming company, banned crypto games and NFTs from its platform. Last month, meanwhile, Ubisoft went forward with its plans to offer NFTs via its Ubisoft Quartz system despite intense pushback from its users.
Multiple users responded to Cobie’s thread to question the value of NFTs over the weekend. Many also argued that the environmental damage caused by blockchains like Ethereum outweighs any potential benefit. As Ethereum currently uses a Proof-of-Work consensus algorithm, countless critics have conflated NFTs with environmental concerns as they have entered mainstream consciousness in recent months. Cobie went back to one of the respondents to offer them $10,000 for listening to his arguments. “If you have an Ethereum address, I’ll send you $10,000 to say cheers,” he wrote. “I do not have nor do I plan on getting an Etherium wallet, but thank you. I’m gonna mute this thread now, have a good one,” they replied.
Later on, another user going by the name EFillae responded to the thread to criticize Cobie. “Why make it a 1/100 doesnt make it cool. Like we get it, you’re a crypto bro and you’ve never heard about CS:GO we get it. Now fuck off,” they wrote. Cobie then offered them $10,000 to make an Ethereum address and buy an NFT. EFillae conceded by creating an Ethereum address, leading Cobie to send 0.27 ETH to cover the cost of the NFT. Once they provided proof that they had purchased an item on OpenSea, he sent them an additional 2.66 ETH worth $10,048 and transferred the rights to an ENS domain name. The transactions can be viewed in EFillae’s wallet via Etherscan.
Cobie is not the first crypto proponent to offer to pay NFT skeptics to start using Ethereum. In November, the NFT collector Vincent Van Dough pulled off an elaborate prank involving NFT cynics in the furry community by using their work to mint a tokenized collage of Pepe the Frog. They then offered the artists featured in the piece $5,000 to mint their own token following a backlash. None of them took Vincent Van Dough up on the offer.
Disclosure: At the time of writing, the author of this feature owned ETH, ENS, and several other cryptocurrencies.
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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to languish below the psychological level at $50,000 in the first few days of the New Year, indicating a lack of aggressive buying by traders. Former BTCC CEO Bobby Lee said the exodus of the Chinese traders who had until Dec. 31 to exit Chinese exchanges may have kept prices lower into the year-end.
However, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, believes that Bitcoin could rally to $100,000 this year. President Bukele also said that two more countries will accept Bitcoin as legal tender in 2022.
The increased crypto adoption by institutional investors in 2021 is another long-term positive. According to CoinShares, net inflows into crypto funds in 2021 were more than $9.3 billion. A majority of over two-thirds of the crypto inflows were into Bitcoin.
Could Bitcoin start a new up-move in January pulling select altcoins higher? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may remain positive in the short term.
Bitcoin has been trading between the 20-day exponential moving average ($48,720) and the strong support at $45,456 for the past few days. This suggests that buying dries up at higher levels.
Both moving averages are turning down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone, indicating that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink the price below $45,456. If they manage to do that, the next leg of the downtrend to $42,000 and then to $40,000 could begin.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($52,332). A break and close above this level could signal the start of a new up-move that could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $58,686.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is range-bound between $45,456 and $51,936.33. The price has rebounded off $45,456 and if bulls push the pair above the 50-SMA, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. That could drive the price toward $51,936.33.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 50-SMA, the bears will make one more attempt to pull the pair below $45,456. If they succeed, the pair could resume the downtrend with the next target objective at $38,975.67.
Terra’s LUNA token is attempting to resume its uptrend but the bears have other plans, drawing a line near $93.81.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory suggest a slight edge to the buyers. If the price once again rebounds off the 20-day EMA ($82), it will indicate that bulls continue to accumulate on dips.
The LUNA/USDT pair will then try to break above $93.81 and challenge the all-time high at $103.60. A break and close above this resistance could start the next leg of the uptrend to $135.26.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal a change in the short-term trend. The pair could then drop to $65.15.
The bounce off $81.11 is facing selling in the zone between the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $92.35 and the 61.8% retracement level at $95.01. The bears will now try to pull the price below the 20-EMA and the uptrend line.
If they do that, the pair could drop to $84 and then to $81.11. A break and close below this support could signal that bears are back in the game.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level or the uptrend line, the buyers will try to drive the pair above $95.01 and retest the overhead resistance at $103.60.
Fantom (FTM) has turned down from the overhead resistance at $2.67, which suggests that bears are defending this level with vigor.
The FTM/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA which could act as a strong support. A sharp rebound off this support will suggest that buyers are accumulating on dips.
The rising 20-day EMA ($2.03) and the RSI above 68 suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
A break and close above $2.67 will suggest that bulls are back in the game. The pair could then start its northward march toward $3.17 and then to $3.48. The bears will have to pull and sustain the price below $2 to invalidate the bullish sentiment.
The 4-hour chart shows a rounding bottom formation, which will complete on a break and close above the overhead resistance at $2.67. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, the bulls will again try to overcome the barrier at $2.67. If that happens, the up-move could begin.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the short-term bullish momentum could be weakening. The pair could then drop to the 50-SMA and later to the strong support at $2.
Related: Three reasons why PlanB’s stock-to-flow model is not reliable
Cosmos (ATOM) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $34 on Jan. 1. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover, indicating that bulls have the upper hand.
If the price sustains above $34, the bullish momentum could pick up further and the ATOM/USDT pair could rise to $38 and later to $43.28. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls are in control.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks and closes below $34, it will suggest that bears are attempting to trap the aggressive bulls. The pair could then drop to the 20-day EMA ($28).
If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle but if the pair breaks below the moving averages, the decline could extend to $25.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting that bulls have the upper hand. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, it will signal that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
The up-move could resume on a break and close above $37. Conversely, if bears pull the price below the 20-EMA, it may lead to profit-booking from short-term traders. That may pull the price down to the 50-SMA.
Harmony (ONE) has reached the downtrend line where the bears are likely to mount a stiff resistance. If the price turns down from the current level, the altcoin could dip to the 20-day EMA ($0.24).
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains bullish and traders are accumulating on dips. The bulls will then again attempt to push the price above the downtrend line.
If they succeed, it will suggest the start of a new up-move. The first target on the upside is $0.34 and a break above it could result in a retest at $0.38. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and breaks below $0.21.
The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a cup-and-handle pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $0.29. This reversal setup has a pattern target at $0.38. It is unlikely to be a straight dash to the target objective because bears are likely to mount a strong resistance at $0.34.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it could drop to the moving averages. If this support cracks, the ONE/USDT pair could decline to $0.21. A bounce off this support could keep the pair range-bound between $0.21 and $0.27 for some time.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
A widely followed crypto analyst is predicting that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will skyrocket during the first half of this year.
In a new video, the host of InvestAnswers tells his YouTube 388,000 subscribers that Bitcoin is long overdue for a massive rally that should happen sometime between March and June of 2022.
“I always said we’d hit $98,000 Bitcoin during this bull run, [but] I didn’t realize it would be so delayed. Between the China ban and the doldrums for 11 weeks, then a horrible September. December has [also] kind of been sucky.
Somehow, we just are playing magnet ball with $47,000 since the beginning of [December]. We’re still exactly at $47,073, you can’t make this up.
Now I do believe we will hit that $98,000… When I look at things like adoption, on-chain metrics, the big money is coming in Q1, the only way is up. And to double is nothing for Bitcoin…
I’m just going to put a line in the sand and that’s what I see: sometime by the end of March or June.”
The host then predicts that more treasuries will begin to follow the standard set by MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor and start buying and holding BTC in large quantities.
“[MicroStrategy] is 15,000 [BTC] away from that target, of having 1% of all BTC supply. More treasuries will follow. They’re creeping in. We haven’t heard about them yet, but a lot more will follow in 2022, especially with this price stability. It’s almost not as volatile as it used to be.”
BTC is exchanging hands at $47,741 at time of writing, a 15.5% decrease from its 30-day high of $56,522.
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