Bitcoin Bull Case Over Next Six Months Is Much Stronger Than Bear Case, Says Macro Strategist Lyn Alden

Macro investment strategist Lyn Alden is predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) could stay bullish over the next 180 days.

In an interview with Kitco News, Alden says that despite the recent pullback Bitcoin experienced after hitting a new record high, on-chain data supports a bullish outlook moving forward.



“Overall, the on-chain indicators generally look pretty bullish at this time.

Overall I’d say that the bullish case is a lot stronger than the bearish case when looking out, say, six months.”

The macro investment strategist says that while Bitcoin could enter a bearish phase like it previously has after halvings, the length of the bearish cycle could be different this time around.

“Whether or not we get a crypto winter will partially depend on how euphoric it gets in the first place. So in those prior crypto winters, you got extremely high euphoria in Bitcoin and other cryptos. Whereas I think here, by most indicators, you’ve not seen Bitcoin reach those lofty heights of euphoria that you’ve seen in prior highs.

But if it were to get to a very high level, I do think you’d have a longer cool-off period. I just don’t know if it would last kind of the same length of time. It’s more about demand in my view, whereas supply is already getting pretty interesting how tight it is.”

Alden says that the impact of Bitcoin halvings on price will decrease going forward as the number of unmined coins has dropped dramatically.

“…Bitcoin has kind of reached the later stages of its distribution. So in those earlier markets, the amount of new supply Bitcoin was still pretty high.

Whereas because of those supply flow halvings, almost 19 million Bitcoin already exists. And the other two million are the ones still to be distributed, and so those halvings, I think, will matter less and less going forward.”

Bitcoin halvings occur every four years, and miner rewards are divided in half per block. The next milestone event will occur in May of 2024, according to CoinGecko.

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