Real Vision CEO and macro investor Raoul Pal is predicting that Bitcoin could more than triple in value from the current price, while Ethereum could nearly quadruple.
Pal tells his 695,100 Twitters followers that there’s more than a 70% probability of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 and Ethereum reaching $20,000.
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“This is not a certainty. It is a probabilistic outcome. For me, $20,000 ETH and $200k BTC is a shoo in (70% + chance).
What outperforms and how this plays out is anyone’s guess…”
Pal says that currently, Bitcoin is replicating the price behavior it displayed in 2013.
“BTC continues to follow 2013 very well.”
Source: RaoulGM/Twitter
The Real Vision founder also says that there’s a “decent chance” that the current Bitcoin bull cycle could play out for a longer period than previous ones.
“I think there is a decent chance (not a certainty) that this BTC cycle extends longer in time and higher in price…”
Source: RaoulGM/Twitter
The macro guru adds that Ethereum could potentially even reach $40,000 by the end of the first or second quarter of 2022 if it follows the price behavior Bitcoin exhibited during the 2017 bull run.
“And ETH…bigger move…$40,000 by March/June would only be one standard deviation overbought versus trend.”
Source: RaoulGM/Twitter
When asked whether Ethereum could drop by 90%, similar to what happened in 2018 after the bull run, Pal answers in the negative.
“No. It will go down much less, IMHO (in my humble opinion)”.
Bitcoin is trading at $63,600 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko, while Ethereum is exchanging hands at $4,140.
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Leading cryptocurrency price tracking platform CoinMarketCap (CMC) recently had email addresses of over 3 million users leaked.
According to a fresh report by a website that tracks several cybersecurity threats, including hacks and compromised online accounts, about 3,117,548 email addresses of CMC users were leaked on October 12.
However, the leak remained unknown until the email addresses were discovered on several hacking forums where they were being traded.
Coinmarketcap Confirms Data Leak
The report further revealed that the passwords to these leaked email addresses were not compromised in the hack.
Speaking on the matter, a CMC representative said:
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“CoinMarketCap has become aware that batches of data have shown up online purporting to be a list of user accounts. While the data lists we have seen are only email addresses (no passwords), we have found a correlation with our subscriber base.”
The knowledge that no passwords were compromised by the leak brings a measure of relief to the affected users. Additionally, the absence of passwords could indicate that the attack on CoinMarketCap would likely not have been for a major heist.
However, the data leak has compromised user privacy and could give room for several targeted attacks on customers, including phishing.
Still a Mystery
The CoinMarketCap representative further revealed that the data breach was not from any of the site’s servers, and they are yet to identify the exact cause of the hack.
“We have not found any evidence of a data leak from our own servers — we are actively investigating this issue and will update our subscribers as soon as we have any new information.”
Not the First
Meanwhile, data leaks are not a new phenomenon in the cryptocurrency industry. Over the past few years, several crypto companies, including BitMEX, Ledger, and many more, have experienced similar user data leaks, jeopardizing millions of customers.
In late 2020, hardware wallet provider Ledger discovered that the personal data of several of its users, including email addresses, phone numbers, postal addresses, and more, had been leaked on various public forums.
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When Square’s boss Jack Dorsey talks about hyperinflation, the world listens. And Twitter reacts. Since so-called developed economies are now feeling the pain that inflation brings, the concept is in everyone’s mind. Every human has a front-row seat to witness the consequences of the United State’s relentless money printing. And, since the Dollar is still the reserve currency of the world, they’re all feeling it too.
Related Reading | Bullish For Bitcoin: US Inflation Expectation Breaks Out From Decade Long Downtrend
This is Jack Dorsey’s tweet:
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Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.
— jack⚡️ (@jack) October 23, 2021
As you can see, he doesn’t merely talk about inflation. He goes for “hyperinflation,” which caused adverse reactions in the replies and the quoted tweets. They accused him of fear-mongering and quoted official numbers at him. And the nay-sayers probably have a point here, because the US is far removed from the reality that word implies. However, one thing’s for sure: money printer goes brrrrrrrr… and it hasn’t stopped working since Covid hit.
Negative And Moderate Reactions To Jack Dorsey‘s Tweet
This is an example of an unnecessarily insulting response from a traditional finance person.
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2/ step back and it’s disturbing that a lot of most powerful financial figures/oligarchs are invested, literally and figuratively, in various huckster schemes and libertarianish fantasies of state and civilizations collapse.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 23, 2021
This man has obviously not done his homework regarding Bitcoin, so his argument is invalid. And doesn’t require a response. Plus, he’s being insulting to get attention, which he got. So, good for him and his dopamine levels. Let’s hope he has fun staying poor.
This is a Venezuelan economist with a moderate answer to Jack Dorsey.
I don’t think it will. But it doesn’t need to happen for things to get ugly. https://t.co/Cj85mJ8o7x
— Eduardo Gavotti (@EduardoGavotti) October 23, 2021
Since Venezuelans have first-hand experience with hyperinflation, let’s take what he says into account. The US is just feeling what inflation does. So-called developing economies live with that concept on their backs every second of every day.
BTC price chart for 10/23/2021 on Bitstamp | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Informative Reactions To Jack Dorsey’s Tweet
The Human Rights Foundation’s Alex Gladstein, a notorious Bitcoin maximalist, had this to say to Jack Dorsey.
Those shocked by this tweet live in a bubble of financial privilege.
*1.3 billion* live under double, triple, or quadruple-digit inflation: Turkey, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Iran, Lebanon, Venezuela, Cuba, Sudan, and beyond.
It’s already one of the world’s biggest humanitarian crises. https://t.co/P83opDagdu
— Alex Gladstein 🌋 ⚡ (@gladstein) October 23, 2021
He’s not lying. Hyperinflation is “already one of the world’s biggest humanitarian crises.” However, the US is far away from “Turkey, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Iran, Lebanon, Venezuela, Cuba”, and Sudan’s situation. And, since the Dollar is still the reserve currency of the world, they have a comfortable cushion to resist the constant money printing’s effects.
Serial entrepreneur and former Coinbase CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, answered Jack Dorsey with a fully-fledged idea. A “censorship-resistant inflation index.”
I wrote a spec for a censorship-resistant inflation index. It’s framed for a startup, but Square could easily do this. In a crisis, accurate inflation info would be something people checked Twitter for every day. @milessuter @moneyball @jack https://t.co/SYb2mfxjex
— Balaji Srinivasan (@balajis) October 23, 2021
In the project, he brings forth some hard truths:
“If inflation is a government-caused problem, we can’t necessarily rely on government statistics like theCPIto diagnose it or remediate it. Indeed, in places with high inflation, censorship and denial is the rule rather than the exception.”
If you are technically capable, there’s still time to send your proposal and earn “A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard.” Be aware that “if you use Chainlink’s oracle tech in your project, the best dashboard will be eligible to receive a $100k grant in LINK tokens.” Those tokens are in addition to the main prize.
Poor Understanding Of The Terminology
In a Twitter Spaces room specifically dedicated to Jack Dorsey’s tweet, notorious podcaster Preston Pysh concluded.
“I think people’s understanding of the terminology, deflation, inflation, is just grossly misunderstood. And so, when you say we’re going to have these deflationary events that are then going to lead to more QE, which is then going to result in more inflationary events. I completely agree with you, but we’re talking that there’s so much information loss in such a simple word as deflation and inflation. So the deflationary event is that this whole system is constructed as credit.”
When he says QE, Preston refers to Quantitative Easing, whichInvestopedia definesas:
“A form of unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases longer-term securities from the open market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. Buying these securities adds new money to the economy, and also serves to lower interest rates by bidding up fixed-income securities.”
Related Reading | Jack Dorsey Plans to Build A Decentralized Exchange For Bitcoin
That being said, Preston asks:
“How many people in the US, or in the world, have that context when that’s not their expertise, right? They didn’t get a major in macroeconomics, or finance, or whatever. So, it’s just all buzzwords that people throw around. And, in the meantime, no one really even understands what those definitions even represent.”
For more information aboutinflation, check out the Bitcoinist Book Clubanalysis of Saifedean Ammous’ “The Bitcoin Standard.”
Featured Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay - Charts by TradingView
The work of Ivan Illich — ronin of the Catholic Church, “errant pilgrim,” and subtle, surprising and far-ranging social theorist — is experiencing a renaissance among many who worry that technology poses corrosive threats to human culture and well-being. A trenchant and unique critic of the Catholic Church in which he came up, Illich went on to critique many modern institutions, whose failures he saw as reflective of the failures of the Church.
Illich’s unique critiques of “industrial institutions” throw new light on our modern monetary system, and Bitcoin’s place within it. In this essay, I’d like to introduce how Illich thought about institutions and tools, apply that lens to our present-day monetary system, and finally, consider Bitcoin as an alternative.
Across a body of thematically linked work, Illich argued that our modern societies increasingly confuse large-scale and bureaucratic “institutions,” like those of “schooling” and “medicine,” with the goals they nominally arose to combat. In so doing, we commodify core aspects of our once-social being, and we cede individual and communal capacity to vast institutions with increasingly “radical monopolies” over the services they render and goals they claim to serve.
This consolidation into “industrial institutions” with “radical monopolies” over the services they offered disempowered both communities and individuals. This combined disempowerment and monopolization inevitably led to counterproductive institutions, which lost sight of, and began to undermine, their stated aims.
Schooling, the subject of Illich’s “Deschooling Society,” provides an example. Illich argued that “schooling” had come to be confused with “learning.” Learning was historically an individualized and active process, specific to each person’s needs and context — lifelong, communal, curiosity-driven and unconstrained. One learns naturally and without much explicit instruction: from one’s community, work, role models or autonomous engagement with the world.
This learning is inherently active, tailored, compelling and “vernacular,” or naturally absorbed: Think of language.
Schooling is fundamentally different. Once a component of broader learning, schooling supplanted other forms of learning. The global dominance of modern schooling — driven by well-meaning activists (and the Prussian army) and supported by government funding and the global export of an American “industrial” vision — replaced natural learning with institutional learning.
In this new model, Illich argued, time spent “in seat” at an institutionally accredited school — a metric of consumption of an institutional good — became the measure of “learning” achieved. This change elevated credentialism, and it made the open-ended, self-driven and practical model of learning vocationally impractical in competition with the institutional and consumerist one. Over time, this destroyed broader learning.
The new institutional schooling model was based on discrete units of imposed and uniform training consumed in an increasingly authoritarian setting. The very structure of this mode of education is antithetical to free thought, skepticism, risk-taking and creativity. Units of this product consumed predominantly reflect willingness and capacity to be “excellent sheep,” along with privileged institutional access.
Conformity to authority is central to the model and necessary for continued consumption. A public school teacher, Illich pointed out, has become a triplicate authority of moral, epistemic and civic judgment — a primary arbiter of one’s inherent and societal value, and key to the door of the modern economy. As Illich put it, “The distinctions between morality, legality, and personal worth are blurred and eventually eliminated. Each transgression is made to be felt as a multiple offense.”
As growing numbers of “students” and “teachers” are minted in this ecosystem of authority, knowledge itself becomes institutionalized and confused with increasingly gated “expertise.”
Institutionalization feeds on its own failure. As this process makes schooling prerequisite to social access, it also transforms schooling into the monomaniacal target of reform. Well-meaning reformers dive in to “solve” educational gatekeeping, not by questioning educational gatekeeping or encouraging alternatives, but by attempting to shove more individuals through the gate. Simply infeasible levels of equality of “schooling” (not learning) are demanded for larger and larger numbers of people throughout the globe.
As institutional schooling metastasizes, it drives down quality (and equality) and exacerbates gatekeeping far faster than it improves relevant “learning.” Simultaneously, it absorbs a larger and larger share of society’s resources. It comes to strangle and replace — to radically monopolize — all other forms of learning. Along the way, this educational behemoth shapes cultures and economies in its image, replacing the custom, communal solutions which flourished with massive, restrictive, uniform and grossly unequal and nonfunctional bureaucracies.
In a way, these monopolistic institutions were simply one species of “tool” which Illich argued had become socially pathological. Unlike more “convivial” tools, which can be individually or democratically controlled and which augment our abilities and creative drives, some tools — which Illich referred to as “manipulative” — are fundamentally controlled and controlling. These manipulative tools redirect human energies toward metastasizing “radical monopolies” which shape human freedom and behavior in ways ill-suited to happiness and autonomy.
Manipulative tools typically involve central control, are fundamentally unequal in results and access, and generate dependency. For Illich, the superhighway system of the United States was one such “tool.” It resulted from political pressures and gave new powers to a prioritized set of rich individuals and corporations with cars and trucks. At the same time, it created “traffic” and commuting, trapping growing amounts of time in transport and forcibly slicing up human societies.
Convivial tools, by comparison, involve democratic or equal access and expand individual agency. Illich provides the mail system as a core example. Available to all at an accessible and nearly flat rate, and using a clear and open protocol, the mail system is relatively unbent to the purposes of any single group. It empowers those who opt into it — without forcing upon those around them a new structure of interaction.
With this as background, we can turn to the modern monetary system.
We tend not to think of this, but modern governments have a radical monopoly on money, which itself is a tool at the center of all modern societies. Just like the schooling monopoly, the monetary monopoly shapes our society in profound and foundational ways. As with schooling standing in for learning, we’ve come to think that “fiat currencies,” like the U.S. dollar, are money — confusing the institution with the concept.
The monopoly on money is radical, in the Illichian sense, in that it monopolizes practically the whole space of economic value transactions. Alternative media of exchange are strongly discouraged by legal tender laws and taxing policy. This monopoly on value transactions is also, almost unavoidably, a monopoly on money generation, and this paired monopoly sits at the base of our economy and shapes society in manifold ways.
Because monetary systems undergird economies, and the U.S. dollar’s money monopoly is fundamental to the globe’s monetary system, the dollar money monopoly is almost maximally radical. It sits at the near-literal root of our economic and social structure and has systematic effects across the globe.
As a consequence of its fundamental position, features of the dollar have extraordinary global impact. Most notably, the U.S. dollar is a rapidly and arbitrarily inflating currency — in terms of “monetary inflation,” the simple expansion of the money supply. This has confusing but powerful effects.
When more monetary units are added into an economy, the real-world wealth in the economy is essentially unaffected. Each monetary unit of measure for that value, however, decreases in worth relative to this static economic wealth.
Monetary inflation would, therefore, naturally lead to “price inflation,” or the increase in the prices of market goods — relative to what would happen absent the inflation in the monetary supply and other dynamic factors. If, for example, the number of circulated dollars in a closed and static economy were suddenly to double, the value of each dollar in terms of market goods would cut in half. To put it obversely, each good now costs twice as many dollars. It does so simply because the same real-world total wealth — the same quantity of goods and services in “the market” — is now divided between twice as many fractional representations of that wealth.
In 2020 alone, the M1 money supply, the most narrow measure of dollars in circulation, increased by more than four times!
This gives us some sense of the “monetary inflation” component of this system, but in reality, each entity in this complex equation involving monetary and price inflation is unknown and essentially unknowable. The complete supply of money-like instruments is a complex summation of physical and digital dollars, eurodollars, precious metals, stocks and assets, treasuries and many other financial instruments. Above all this sits a vast mountain of leveraged credit in great and unknown excess to the first-layer financial instruments upon which it is based.
These base monies themselves come into circulation through a complex variety of explicit and implicit schemes. Furthermore, the relationship between monetary and price inflation is effectively impossible to measure, because price inflation is the sum of that unknown monetary inflation (relative to the unknowable mountain of both money and credit) and the incalculable deflationary effect of technological growth.
Price inflation itself is only estimated through proxy. Bureaucrats track the “consumer price index,” or CPI, the averaged changing prices of an arbitrary basket of goods in an arbitrary set of markets, subjected to arbitrary “hedonic adjustments” to attempt to compare apples to apples across time. The validity of this fundamentally arbitrary bureaucratic measure is further brought into question by a century of pressure from adjacent governmental institutions. Those whose livelihoods depend on these institutions — which in turn depend on continued income streams — very much value the ability to “print” new money, as do the politicians who use money printing to more easily fund the pork-barrel legislation for which they are lobbied. This ability to print in turn depends on citizens’ systematic underestimation of monetary inflation’s deleterious effects. The CPI, a malleable metric only loosely determined by reality, is a tool for the extension of political control.
The oversimplification, then, is directionally correct: When the dollars in circulation increase, that has the corollary effect of increasing the cost — in dollars — of goods and assets. This thereby decreases the value, in goods and assets, of each dollar.
Given the rate of governmental and credit-based money “printing,” which vastly exceeds the rate of taxation, monetary inflation acts as an invisible tax of a scale far greater than all visible taxes. This tax is not only invisible but also highly regressive. Those who hold more of their wealth in dollars — primarily, the poor — lose, and those who hold more assets — mostly the rich — win. The inherent effect of monetary inflation, then, is “redistribution” from the have-nots to the already-haves.
The regressive nature of this invisible tax is even more pointed, in that, as with illicit counterfeiting, new money does not enter the economy in all places at once. Rather, to oversimplify again, it enters the economy through the hands of bankers and bureaucrats in what is referred to as the Cantillon effect. When the Federal Reserve “prints” money to buy newly minted U.S. treasuries (or the government mints a “wacky” trillion-dollar coin to avoid “financial Armageddon”), that money is spent in government appropriations or dolled out to back-stop (and unavoidably generate moral hazard for) bank speculators.
All of this, through the magic trick of engineered monetary inflation, comes at the cost of “the little guy.”
Given his concerns with excess consumerism, Illich might have decried yet another effect of this radical monopoly on money: An inflationary monetary system drives consumerism. This is because it devalues money in the future, which encourages spending over saving.
Recall, if you can, the days of $1 coffees and consider whether it would have been wise to hold onto that dollar for a coffee today.
This is not an accident, but in fact an explicit goal of Keynesian monetary theory, which aims to achieve “economic growth” through consumption. You may recall the post-9/11 exhortations to restart the economy through spending, but the chief driver of this consumerism is not political exhortations but subtle incentives.
The goal is increased growth through increased spending; the mechanism is increased spending through a money that devalues in your pocket. To Keynes, saving was hoarding, which “depresses the business of preparing to-day’s dinner without stimulating the business of making ready for some future act of consumption” and which should consequently be discouraged. Whatever the merits of this goal, this explicit choice to incentivize spending shapes human decisions in subtle but radical ways. It produces, insidiously, a culture which is relatively short-term oriented by design and whose citizens can only avoid this short-termism by seeking assets which don’t devalue — for example, gambling on the stock market.
Conceived as a tool, then, fiat money “manipulates” its holders to consume more than they otherwise would. “Otherwise” here refers to a clear alternative: Using the sorts of moneys toward which people have oriented across history. People have consistently revealed their preference for monetary instruments that hold their value over time. This is clearly why much of the world settled on gold and, in earlier communities throughout the world, unique, costly and scarce resources such as wampum or rai stones. Like most “manipulative tools,” fiat money has repeatedly been foisted upon people against their will.
The pervasive and insidious effects of this radical monopoly are hard to believe. Fish to fish: This is the water we live in, and it is hard to see. But the invisible effects of the money monopoly seem just as destructive — I would argue more so — than many of the radical monopolies which Illich criticized.
You might find this all somewhat excessive or unbelievable. If so, I introduce a brief quotation to add some intellectual heft — from Keynes himself — to my assertions:
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.
“Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become ‘profiteers,’ who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
“Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
As Keynes’ analysis suggests, the levers of this inflationary system are far from democratic reach. Even were we to “diagnose” this problem, the Federal Reserve is antidemocratic by design. Despite vehement objection to bailouts and money printing, the Fed continues unabated. Across administrations, the printer “brrrrs.”
The institution of fiat money and its failures as a tool seem forced into our hands and beyond the reach of political change. Illich, who frequently (and somewhat cryptically) referred to “participatory democracy” as a more ideal means of governing our institutions and choosing our shared tools, would likely not have appreciated this structure.
Given this background, we can compare Bitcoin to the modern monetary system from an Illichian perspective.
Bitcoin is a “decentralized” cryptocurrency. That decentralization, and its import, are often poorly understood. Bitcoin is decentralized in the sense that its core protocol was designed such that no single party can control its programmatic issuance or usage. Instead, Bitcoin is
a narrow rule set, codified in a protocol,
a network of nodes (individual computers) which speak that protocol, and
a unit of value (lowercase “bitcoin”) that transfers along that network, using that protocol.
The value of each bitcoin sent is communally determined, and the rules within the protocol are set and maintained not by any small group or individual, but by a complex game-theoretic interplay between various types of nodes on the network, all of which are incentivized to support the network’s health and the coin’s value.
There is no Bitcoin™ Incorporated. Decentralization here is tightly coupled with accessibility, flexibility and fairness: This is not a highway system, built to the specifications of individual lobbying industries, but rather an open system, controlled by those involved in it and operating as an unobtrusive alternative. Unlike our fiat monetary system, usage is not legally obligated or pressured but is fundamentally and exclusively opt-in.
With this understanding of decentralization, we might compare Bitcoin to mail, Illich’s prime example of conviviality. Bitcoin is an open network, with an extremely low barrier to entry. Unbanked individuals in impoverished countries can find their only banking services in this network and can onboard by selling anything of value for any “satoshis” sold in exchange. A slow internet connection and a simple phone app are all one needs to start transacting peer to peer with anyone in the world. The Bitcoin Lightning Network — a “Layer 2” network “on top” of Bitcoin which expands its functional reach — then allows any individual to transact instantaneously and for essentially zero fee.
This functionality is transparent and non-discriminating, because it is based on open, un-gated networks with no knowledge of or interest in who you are. Although the cost of sending bitcoin is per transaction, not per monetary size (meaning a billion dollar and five dollar “on chain” transaction cost the same), Lightning provides small-scale transactions for essentially zero fee.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s rule set and evolution are governed by a process of “participatory democracy” among stakeholders in the network, protocol and monetary unit. Changes to the protocol are furiously debated among owners of the coin, operators of network nodes and “miners” who validate the transaction history, and they must achieve extremely high levels of adoption to be implemented — 90% for the most recent protocol upgrade. This is a form of democracy whose varied participants each have “skin in the game” — investment in the network’s health and value — and which is fundamentally resistant to centralization. The network is designed to handle dissidence by ejecting nodes that fail to follow the protocol, meaning that the highly democratic rule set applies equally to all.
Bitcoin is an Illichian convivial tool in another manner: Since the protocol is transparent and open source, any technical individual can build upon it for their own creative use. Within a short time, anyone can learn to create their own “wallet.” With minimal investment, any individual or community can set up their own node — or use someone else’s. Unlike Visa or Mastercard, this open protocol allows for a flowering of novel and custom tools to interact with it, many of them “free and open-source software” supported by the community. Self-sufficiency is central to the global community’s ethos.
The customized applications for El Salvadoran Lightning wallets illustrate Bitcoin’s tremendous capacity for empowerment. As El Salvador has adopted bitcoin as a form of legal tender parallel to the dollar, the government has published its own wallet software. But El Salvadorans are free to adopt any other software they want, and the protocol allows them to send funds to or from the government wallet using any other piece of Lightning software, including some they might build. A team in El Zonte, El Salvador (aka “Bitcoin Beach”), has spent months living with the community and understanding their specific constraints and needs to build out wallet software that conforms to them. This software is community-specific but uses the global Bitcoin and Lightning networks to provide instant final settlement and interoperability with the rest of the world. Concretely, Bitcoin has drastically reduced the cost and difficulty of remittances for El Salvadorans and is moving to sharply reduce the friction of sale in local marketplaces in those countries.
From this perspective, Bitcoin seems like an ideal Illichian tool. It is a significantly more democratic system of money, more in line with the characteristics of money toward which people have gravitated throughout history. It removes the manipulative drive of fiat currencies toward consumerism, is far more open to individual access and creative usage, is exclusively opt-in, is far less coercible, and reduces the concentration of power unavoidably downstream from the ability to generate money from thin air.
The Bitcoin-powered overthrow of this monetary monopoly would also threaten monopolies downstream from it. Many of the “radical monopolies” Illich criticized are supported by unrestricted bureaucratic funding. The U.S. Department of Education, for example, with its annual budget north of $60 billion, is impossible to imagine in the same shape absent the huge quantities of money generated via magic trick and funneled into our federal bureaucracies. (It was founded eight years after Nixon removed the U.S. from the gold standard in 1971.) The U.S. government supports literal trillions worth in non-expungeable student loans (largely for upper-middle-class students). Absent massive direct and indirect funding of these departments and industries, they might shrink to more manageable, or even salutary, size.
This is because federal expenditures like these are not simply large but inflated — far in excess of what our taxes alone would fund. They represent a further leap of funding above and beyond that reached through our nominally republican (lowercase R) processes. And they are the result of the degradation of that process into one where the heavily lobbied individuals of the legislative state debate multi-thousand-page bills nobody has read, while executive bureaucrats govern massive departments well beyond public oversight. Both spew out bottomless streams of money to growing hoards of rent seekers.
Much of this money streams out globally, through U.S. funding of the World Bank or International Monetary Fund. Both institutions, and many others, are essentially nongovernmental arms of the Fed, whose pipes in the money pool pump money to bureaucrats, bankers and politicians abroad. Through the leash of free money, these institutions exert control.
This radical monopoly, in other words, is an engine for both money and power inequality, as well as the expansion of “industrial institutions” and ways of thinking, both in the U.S. and abroad. It is a tool for forcing the preferences and goals of bureaucrats and a money-associated oligarchy over all other people throughout the world. Often, these bureaucratic goals are in support of radical institutional monopolies. By shrinking their funding, Bitcoin looks to similarly reduce their reach to what could be supported by explicit taxation.
Looking at not just the present but future alternatives, “fiat” money looks to become an even more manipulative tool. China has begun rolling out its own “central bank digital currency” (CBDC). Embedded within a social tracking system explicitly designed to grade individual behavior, China’s digital yuan grants the government capacity to dial up or down the half life (or simple quantity) of money in your individual account or to curtail your ability to purchase chosen goods based on your position vis-a-vis the centralized arbiters of social fitness. This massive, Orwellian system of centralized control would radically transform Chinese society into a seamless and practically inescapable authoritarian state.
China’s example is particularly frightening but is unlikely to remain unique for long. Other countries and global institutions look to jump on this CBDC train and have made this desire explicit. This sits uneasily with the authoritarian overreach of recent history. This past year, we’ve seen increasingly authoritarian governmental measures globally, including the tracking of quasi-mandated health interventions used as gating factors for societal access. These have been accompanied, within the U.S. and elsewhere, by anti-“terrorism” measures (including against parents advocating for curricular change) that hearken quite eerily back to the post-9/11 attack on individual freedoms which we will never regain. Color me conspiratorial, but the global trend seems toward an even more coercive and radical monopoly on the way we communicate value with one another.
Although frequently lumped in with Bitcoin as “cryptocurrencies,” these technologies are, in ethos and practice (and technology), inherently opposed. Centralized in every way, they represent, instead, the most recent and worrisome update of the institution and tool of “fiat money,” and Bitcoin seems to be their only feasible alternative.
From another perspective, however, Bitcoin seems very much like something Illich might object to. Illich was highly concerned about “industrial society,” and, in his book “Energy and Equity,” he argued that energy usage above certain per capita “quanta,” engendered alienation and cultural destruction.
Bitcoin mining uses energy, and there seems to be little doubt that were the world to “hyperbitcoinize” and bitcoin to become its dominant reserve currency, mining would be an energy-intensive technology.
There are powerful arguments against this as a core concern, however. Most notably, Bitcoin looks to replace currencies which are as high or higher in environmental cost, but whose energy (and social) costs are not nearly so “transparent.” Modeled explicitly on gold, Bitcoin comes into the world through a process of “mining” that transparently requires work — in this case computational work — as part of its globally accessible process of validation and distribution. This energy use is explicit and quantifiable. And it varies according to the value of bitcoin, such that a more highly valued bitcoin would involve more energy use to secure and mint it, although precisely how much more isn’t calculable with great precision.
This energetic cost must be considered in contrast with the more hidden energetic costs of our current “fiat” monetary system, however. Tightly pegged to the valuation of oil since the OPEC crisis, the U.S. dollar depends on oil’s market value and the United States’ control over it. This “petrodollar” system, in which oil is almost exclusively sold for dollars, necessitates a massive army to protect and control the regions of the world where oil is richest. It is a hidden driver of unmeasurable scale behind American intervention in the Middle East. Since bitcoin aims to replace or significantly supplant these other currencies, its energy usage is best considered to be largely alternative, rather than additive, to currencies with more externalized energy and social costs.
Bitcoin’s energy usage is also unique in terms of its energy mix. Bitcoin miners are incentivized to search out the cheapest energy. This generally drives them toward excess or waste energy: methane that would otherwise be “flared”; hydroelectric or geothermal (volcanic!) energy “stranded” too far from a consumption point to meaningfully monetize; wind during an unusually windy day. Of course, Bitcoin will continue to also use new energy, but a large percentage of its “mix” is, through natural incentives, driven toward the more efficient usage of preexisting energy supplies.
More fundamentally, a significantly less inflationary money supply would decrease rates of consumption. This, in turn, would be expected to have a downward pressure on energy usage, by reducing the number of energetically costly items individuals are driven to buy. Those who believe that a “sustainable” future is only achievable by drawdowns on rates of human consumption should find this effect encouraging.
I can think of a final, more esoteric and economical response to critiques of Bitcoin’s energy use, although Illich may have found it less compelling: A predictable currency allows our markets to more efficiently meet the same communal desires. As a currency with predictable issuance and limited supply, bitcoin, if widely adopted, should be expected to drive toward a maximally predictable market value. This stable value will make it a more even ruler for economic measurement. Given just how unassessable and unpredictable our fiat currencies are, moving to Bitcoin could have powerful implications for economic (and energy) efficiency.
Currencies convey price signals in a market economy. These price signals are the information which the market — in effect, an emergent neural network — needs to best allocate scarce resources with alternative uses. If the currency fluctuated randomly from day to day, the ability of market agents to make informed decisions would plummet. Conversely, if the predictability of the price signal approached its theoretical maximum, so would the efficiency of our markets. That efficiency can be measured in terms of human desires met per resources invested. As it goes up, fewer resources are needed to meet the same human desires.
Finally, Illich may have criticized Bitcoin for its pure globalizing and market-driving effects. Illich was a nuanced and unique thinker, and he eschewed categorization as Marxist, anti-capitalist or any other pat label. But he clearly felt that the forces of global “industrial” capitalism were pathological in many ways. He argued that the West had globally exported a once-particular world view. This view ordered society around the efficient allocation of goods (including “human resources”) for consumption, and this view was increasingly replacing more local, cultural, communal, self-sufficient ways of living. In so doing, it was attacking our self-sufficiency, our ability to learn, be healthy, and interrelate, our traditions and customs, and our most fit and human ways of being.
Bitcoin is a fundamentally boundary-free technology. It is digitally native and creates a global digital marketplace. This seamless global interconnection, on its own, risks a further erosion of the particular cultures and traditions, and the human agency and independence associated with them, which Illich cherished.
But our world is already, for better or worse (in many ways, I think, both), an interconnected industrial marketplace. This ship — both good and bad — has already sailed. And while Bitcoin risks perhaps furthering the reaches of that industrial marketplace, it seems clear to me that that trend is inherent and unavoidable — and so should be shaped rather than combatted.
All in all, then, the place of Bitcoin within the framework of Illich’s thinking is complex and unclear. I, for one, believe it paves the way toward a brighter future in a way he would be likely to agree with. It nudges our future global economy toward openness, accessibility, fairness, creativity and security. It pushes forcefully against the churning drive toward ever-more unnecessary — and fundamentally unwanted — consumption and wrenches back control over our primary means of economic value transaction. It also fights against what I see, and believe Illich would see, as an otherwise dark economic and political future: A global digital panopticon, in which central powers track and control our every move, and the very means with which we communicate value becomes a monopolistic tool for manipulation.
This is a guest post by Sasha Klein. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.
Coming every Saturday,Hodler’s Digestwill help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.
Top Stories This Week
Bitcoin officially hits new all-time high above $65K
Bitcoin (BTC) surged to new all-time highs this week, breaking the former ceiling of $64,900 from April as the asset went into price discovery mode before topping out around $67,000.
The bullish momentum coincided with the successful launch of ProShares’ Bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded fund (ETF). Many onlookers are expecting the price to increase in the coming weeks and months, with the more optimistically inclined even suggesting that up to $300,000 is possible in the near future.
With Bitcoin’s market capitalization dominance at its highest since mid-May, many popular traders have stressed that now is the time to put a focus on digital gold and put the altcoin market on the back burner for the moment.
ProShares Bitcoin-linked ETF launches on NYSE
ProShares achieved a major milestone for the crypto sector this week after the firm debuted its Bitcoin futures-based ETF (BITO) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Tuesday.
ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF saw around $1 billion in volume on its opening day, with Bloomberg analysts stating that it was arguably thelargest first-day volumefor an ETF in terms of “natural” or “grassroots interest.”
After two days on the NYSE, Proshares’ ETF became the fastest fund ever to reach $1 billion in assets under management. Following Proshares’ ETF, many onlookers are waiting to see how the next in line performs. At the time of writing on Friday, Valkyrie just launched itsBitcoin futures ETFon the NYSE.
Coinbase announces multiyear partnership with NBA and WNBA
Top crypto exchange Coinbase has penned a deal with the NBA, WNBA, NBA G League, NBA 2K League and USA Basketball as part of a multiyear sponsorship deal. As part of the deal, Coinbase will work to educate basketball fans on crypto.
According to the NBA, Coinbase will create “unique content, innovations, activations and experiences” to help basketball fans to learn about the crypto space. The firm’s branding will also appear during the televised games.
The move could be a real “slam dunk” for the industry in terms of mainstream adoption, with data from Statista showing that an average of 1.6 million people watched NBA regular-season games across major networks during the 2019–2020 season.
Mariah Carey buys Bitcoin, hopes to empower fans through education
Mariah Carey, the pop icon behind the divisive Christmas song “All I Want For Christmas Is You,” has partnered with the Winklevoss twins’ crypto exchange Gemini to promote Bitcoin adoption and support girls of color in their pursuit of STEM degrees — a broad education category that refers to science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
In a video to her 10.2 million Instagram followers, Carey said she’s a Bitcoin investor and offered her fans a referral code to redeem a whopping $20 in free BTC.
Her promo deal is linked to charitable causes, as users who sign up through the referral link and trade digital assets on Gemini will be contributing directly to Black Girls Code, a nonprofit organization that provides technology education for African-American girls.
Brazilian toddler makes over 6,500% profit on her first Bitcoin holding
A four-year-old hodler from Brazil has earned more than 6,500% in profit on her first Bitcoin. The girl’s father, João Canhada, gifted 1 BTC to his newborn in 2017 when the asset was priced at around $915.
Canhada is the founder of Brazilian crypto exchange Foxbit, and stated that he bought his daughter Bitcoin not just as a gift, but as a “way of investing” in the emerging crypto sector. It appears that he was at the right place at the right time, as the price of Bitcoin went on to surge to $20,000 at the tail end of 2017.
While there have been many bumps along the road, Bitcoin was worth around $61,000 at the end of the week, suggesting her profit now sits at roughly 6,560%.
Winners and Losers
At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at$60,658, Ether (ETH) at$3,963andXRPat$1.09. The total market cap is at$2.51 trillion,accordingto CoinMarketCap.
Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week areOKBat 71.25%,Nexo (NEXO)at 33.80% andHuobi Token (HT)at 33.70%.
The top three altcoin losers of the week areFlow (FLOW)AT -21.20%,Celsius (CEL)at 14.00% andPerpetual Protocol (PERP)at -13.14%.
For more info on crypto prices, make sure to readCointelegraph’s market analysis.
Most Memorable Quotations
“If left unchecked, these digital assets and payments systems could harm the efficacy of our sanctions.”
U.S. Department of the Treasury
“We’ve got a lot of smart guys working at Icahn & Company, and we just don’t understand Bitcoin. I’m not saying it’s bad or good, I’m just saying we don’t understand it. We’re not going to invest in something we don’t get. […] The jury is really out on whether Bitcoin has intrinsic value or acts as a store of value. If inflation gets rampant, I guess it does have value. There are so many variables, it is a very difficult thing to invest in.”
Carl Icahn, founder of Icahn Enterprises
“There’s a lot of history here. We think it’ll track quite well and, most importantly, we think that a combination of a regulated futures market and a 40-act ETF will really open up the opportunity to conveniently get Bitcoin exposure to a lot of folks who may have been waiting on the sidelines.”
Simeon Hyman, head of investment strategy at ProShares
“To protect consumers and reduce costs, we encourage the streamlining of state-level regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and the issuance of special-purpose charters by federal banking regulators for stablecoin companies seeking to operate nationally.”
The Chamber of Digital Commerce
“DAOs do not clearly fall within any of Australia’s existing company structures. […] This regulatory uncertainty is preventing the establishment of projects of significant scale in Australia.”
The Senate Committee on Australia as a Technology and Financial Center (ATFC)
“Diem is not Facebook. We are an independent organization, and Facebook’s Novi is just one of more than two dozen members of the Diem Association. Novi’s pilot with Paxos is unrelated to Diem.”
Diem
“We’ve made a lot of noise in the last few months about getting hyperactive in cryptocurrency.”
Adam Aron, CEO of AMC
“AI, especially the sort of low-tech, surveillance form, is essentially communist.”
Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal
Prediction of the Week
Traders brace for a drop to $58K if Bitcoin price loses the $62K support
Bitcoin’s price favored north this week. According toCointelegraph’s BTC price index, the asset broke its previous all-time high just shy of $65,000, going on to reach $67,000 amid a week filled with Bitcoin ETF headlines. Bitcoin cooled off following its surge, however, dropping back down to the low $60,000s.
Several people weighed in on potential upcoming price action for Bitcoin. The Twitter account for E-Club Trading, an investment analysis organization, mentioned a level around $58,000 as one potential landing zone if Bitcoin loses the $62,000 level.
BTC could also possibly ride right up to $80,000, or it could visit $58,000 or $53,000 first prior to pushing for $80,000, ExoAlpha chief investment officer David Lifchitz noted.
FUD of the Week
New York businesses ask governor to deny permits for crypto mining
New York Governor Kathy Hochul received a letter this week urging her to deny permits enabling the conversion of the city’s old fossil-fuel power plants into crypto mining centers. The power plants in question are the Greenidge Generating Station and Fortistar North Tonawanda Facility, which now are the target of ambitions to mine and hodl at full throttle.
The letter was co-signed by a long list of local organizations, businesses and labor groups, who banded together to voice their concerns over the energy-intensive poof-of-work crypto mining model.
“Proof-of-Work cryptocurrency mining use enormous amounts of energy to power the computers needed to conduct business — should this activity expand in New York, it could drastically undermine New York’s climate goals established under the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act,” the letter read.
Speaking of New York, the state’s attorney general’s office went after five local crypto firms on Monday, ordering two unnamed companies to shut down operations, while launching investigations into the other three.
The attorney general’s office alleged that the two firms engaged in unlawful activities, and requested details on the other firm’s lending products, policies, procedures, clients in the state and other relevant information.
One of the three crypto lending firms under investigation is Celsius Network, with the firm confirming the news in a blog post on Tuesday. Celsius said it is “working on providing regulators in New York” with info regarding its business.
Senators pressure Facebook to ‘immediately discontinue’ Novi wallet pilot
In what may or may not be FUD depending on one’s views towards Facebook, the social media giant was urged by five U.S. senators to halt its crypto wallet just hours after its pilot program went live this week.
Facebook’s Novi wallet launched a pilot in the United States and Guatemala on Tuesday in partnership with Coinbase, but the group of senators, which included crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren, weren’t having it. In a letter sent to Facebook CEO and meat-smoking enthusiast Mark Zuckerberg, the senators voiced their “strongest opposition to Facebook’s revived effort to launch a cryptocurrency and digital wallet.”
“Facebook cannot be trusted to manage a payment system or digital currency when its existing ability to manage risks and keep consumers safe has proven wholly insufficient,” the letter read.
Best Cointelegraph Features
The crypto industry royally screwed up privacy
Sadly, there are several reasons why the blockchain community has fallen short in making privacy a tier-one priority, and that must be changed.
Lushsux: A decade of ass-whoopin’ and skullduggery in a single NFT
“Generally, when I’ve got things successful, it’s just through a bit of skullduggery.”
Bitcoin futures ETFs: Good, but not quite there
With a Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund, getting exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency will be easier than ever.
On the opening day of Messari Mainnet 2021, New York City’s long-awaited first crypto conference since the start of COVID-19, reports came blazing in via a viral tweet that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission had served a subpoena to an event panelist at the top of an escalator in broad daylight. While it’s still not entirely clear who was served (or why), this isn’t the first time the SEC has encroached upon the crypto industry in full view of the public. Let’s go back a mere two months.
On July 20, 2021, SEC Chair Gary Gensler issued his remarks outlining the SEC’s scope of authority on cryptocurrency:
“It doesn’t matter whether it’s a stock token, a stable value token backed by securities, or any other virtual product that provides synthetic exposure to underlying securities. These platforms — whether in the decentralized or centralized finance space — are implicated by the securities laws and must work within our securities regime.”
Just like the SEC’s bold arrival at Mainnet, Gensler’s remarks definitely did not arise out of the blue. They arose because Gensler — along with his regulatory entourage — finally arrived at the terrifying realization that cryptocurrency’s tokenized, synthetic stocks are just like stocks, but better.
Related:Powers On… Don’t worry, Bitcoin’s adoption will not be stopped
So, what are synthetics?
Synthetic assets are artificial renditions of existing assets whose prices are pegged to the value of the assets they represent in real-time. For instance, a synthetic share of renewable energy giant Tesla can be purchased and sold at exactly the same price as a real share of Tesla at any given moment.
Consider average stock traders for whom profit margins, accessibility and personal privacy take precedence. To them, the apparent “realness” of TSLA acquired from a broker-dealer will not hold water next to the cryptoverse’s many synthetic renditions, which can be acquired at a fraction of the cost at 8:00 pm on a Sunday evening. What’s more, it’s only a matter of time before traders will be able to stake synthetic TSLA in a decentralized finance protocol to earn interest or take out a collateralized loan.
Related:Crypto synthetic assets, explained
The role of synthetics
Decentralized platforms built on blockchain and legacy financial systems are on the verge of clashing in one of the most tumultuous battles in economic history, and Gensler’s remarks merely constitute a shot across the bow. Make no mistake: decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance (TradFi) have already drawn their battle lines. They will remind powerful incumbents and new entrants alike that, contrary to what contemporary wisdom may suggest, systems of exchange imbue assets with value — not the converse. The ramifications cannot be understated: Synthetic assets establish a level playing field where centralized and decentralized systems can compete for users and capital — a free market for markets.
Typically, digital marketplaces support an assortment of assets that compete by being exchanged against one another. But when the asset side is fixed — that is, when identical assets exist across multiple platforms — it is the marketplaces that compete for the largest share of each asset’s daily trading volume. Ultimately, traders settle the score, determining where assets should live and which systems should die.
On that accord, while Bitcoin (BTC) competes indirectly with fiat currencies as a unique form of money transacted over a decentralized network, it is the array of emergent fiat currency-pegged stablecoins that pose the most pernicious and immediate threat to national governments and their directors in central banking. Unlike Bitcoin, which often proves too volatile and exotic for outsiders, fiat-backed stablecoins cut down the complicated tradeoffs and keep the simple stuff: Around-the-clock access, low-cost international transfers, kick-ass interest rates and 1:1 redemption into fiat.
Related:Stablecoins present new dilemmas for regulators as mass adoption looms
Even to skeptics, stablecoins drive a strong bargain, and the U.S. Congress put forth its own token of acknowledgment with its December 2020 legislative proposal of the STABLE Act, which would require stablecoin issuers to acquire the same bank charters as their centralized counterparts at Chase, Wells Fargo and so on.
Incumbent institutions have a long history of seeking out, acquiring and, at times, even sabotaging their competition. It’s not difficult to see where legacy banking’s aversion to synthetics comes from. As decentralized platforms become more user-friendly and tread further into the mainstream, significant buy-side demand will migrate from legacy platforms and their formerly exclusive assets into digitally native synthetics.
Robinhood saga: The remix
Imagine what might have transpired if Robinhood users had access to synthetic shares of GME and AMC on Jan. 28, 2021.
If even a small minority of the buy-side demand for those stocks — say 10% — migrated from Robinhood to Mirror Protocol’s synthetic stocks, it would have effectively inflated the supply of shares outstanding and consequently suppressed the share price. In turn, GameStop’s C-level executives would have been in for a real tough board call.
Related:GameStop inadvertently paves the way for decentralized finance
And then, consider also the implications of investors staking their synthetic GME and AMC in DeFi protocols to receive mortgage and small business loans at drastically reduced interest rates, definitively cutting banks and other incumbents out of the equation.
Such a scenario would behoove GameStop and AMC to migrate a fraction of their shares to blockchain-based platforms in order to restore robust pricing mechanisms. Meanwhile, investors on the retail side, who only seek a superior user experience and the benefits of interoperability with DeFi protocols, would ultimately win — something you don’t hear too often in modern financial markets.
From stocks to commodities, real estate instruments, bonds, and beyond, the emergence of synthetic assets will disrupt pricing mechanisms, catalyze unprecedented turbulence in financial markets and produce unforetold arbitrage opportunities, unlike anything the world has ever seen. Although the consequences of such a dramatic shift are beyond prediction, centralized incumbents will not voluntarily cannibalize their business models — free markets must be entrusted to select winners.
The future of synthetics
As demand for synthetic assets reaches and exceeds that of their purportedly regulated TradFi counterparts, the capitalists and investors of the world will be forced to contemplate what in fact makes an asset “real” in the first place, and will ultimately determine not only the direction of free markets but their very constitution.
In the heat of an existential crisis, financial institutions and governments will undoubtedly get all hands on deck: The SEC will battle to eradicate synthetic stocks, Congress will commit to subduing stablecoin issuers from challenging the international banking elite, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will step in to tame platforms dealing in derivatives and Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) will continue to target those aiming to protect user privacy.
Related:The new episode of crypto regulation: The Empire Strikes Back
Rough days lie ahead — and it is already too late to turn back the hands of innovation. Compound’s cTokens, Synthetix’s Synths and Mirror Protocol’s mAssets have already opened Pandora’s box, while Offshift’s fully private zk-Assets are slated to launch in January 2022. Whatever unfolds, the rigid barrier separating the realm of traditional finance from that of emergent decentralized platforms will be permanently dismantled, and a new age of financial freedom will spring forth.
May the best systems win.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Alex Shipp is a professional writer and strategist in the digital asset space with a background in traditional finance and economics, as well as the emerging fields of decentralized system architecture, tokenomics, blockchain and digital assets. Alex has been professionally involved in the digital asset space since 2017 and currently serves as a strategist at Offshift, a writer, editor and strategist for the Elastos Foundation, and is an ecosystem representative at DAO Cyber Republic.
Yesterday, SHIB had broken above a descending triangle formation, as seen on the following chart. Initially, it got rejected at the $0.00003 resistance level. However, after a slight pullback, SHIB managed to break above and quickly spiked towards the all-time high sitting at $0.000035.
This is roughly ~10-12% away from the current daily high as of writing these lines, according to CoinGecko. In case this resistance breaks – SHIB will reach the price discovery zone.
The bulls and bears are currently fighting just under this significant resistance. It is unclear if SHIB has the strength to push higher at this run. Following the 20% daily surge, it is likely that Shiba Inu will see some consolidation before a possible attempt to break the ATH.
Technical Indicators
Trading Volume: The volume exploded once the resistance at $0.00003 got broken. This shows the bulls took control of the price action. The question is if they can sustain it in the next few days.
RSI: The RSI is in the overbought area and reached almost the 80 level on the 4-hour timeframe. A pullback can be expected in the near future to cool off.
MACD: The histogram is firmly placed on the bullish side on lower timeframes such as on 4-hours. On the daily timeframe, SHIB has not yet crossed on the positive side, indicating that continuation is required for SHIB to turn bullish in the longer term.
Bias
This last move has turned the bias bullish over the short term. However, continuation is needed to gain more confidence in the current bullish price action in the longer term. A sharp rejection amid the all-time high resistance would cut this green momentum and likely see a rapid move to test lower support around $0.000032 and $0.00003.
Short-Term Price Prediction for SHIB Price
While there are good reasons to be bullish on SHIB currently, a break of the all-time high would be necessary to confirm that SHIB can sustain its current gains and push higher.
Until this happens, it is best to be cautious when the price hovers pretty close under the all-time high resistance, as any rejection can take the price back to $0.000032 or lower. Remember – a violent rapid move often ends in a violent move in the other direction.
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The cryptocurrency trading platform – Bakkt – polled more than 2,000 American citizens to explore why crypto investors entered the digital asset industry and what are the biggest obstacles in front of them. It also revealed which age groups feel the most confident in regards to such investments.
Crypto Is Not a Bite for The Elderly
Somewhat expectedly, young participants, more specifically those under 29 years old, were the ones who have invested the most in bitcoin and the altcoins showed the paper. They also seemed the most confident and knowledgeable. In contrast, People above 60 displayed almost no desire to deal with the asset class at all.
Breaking the results between the genders, it becomes clear that men are more active and better educated than women. For example, 46% of the female participants thought the only way to invest in bitcoin is to pay the full price of the coin (nearly $65,000 at the moment of writing), while this percentage is 37% among the males.
It is also worth mentioning what the crypto owners intend to do with their holdings. 58% answered they want to keep them for the long-term, or said in other words – they are HODLers. 43% stood on the opposite corner by planning to sell when they can make a short-term profit.
By the looks of it, most investors are just dipping their toes in the crypto universe as only 5% have allocated more than $1,000 in the market, while 28% have bought tokens for $200 or less.
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In addition, the participants who do not have any exposure to bitcoin or the altcoins gave their reasons for having such a stance. “Too much volatility” ranked as the most significant challenge with 32%, while “I don’t know where to invest” was second with 24%. However, 32% of the non-investors admitted they are willing to jump on the crypto bandwagon in the next six months.
The USA – The Most Crypto-Ready Country
According to another research, the world’s largest economy is the most prepared nation for digital asset adoption.
The survey combined several statistics such as annual crypto Google searches per 100,000 people, crypto queries yearly increase, and the number of ATMs to place the USA in the first position with an index of 7.13 (out of 10). Cyprus ranked second with 6.47, while the rest of the top 5 countries were Singapore (6.30), Hong Kong (6.27), and the United Kingdom (6.06).
Speaking of numbers of crypto ATMs, the USA, with its 17,436 machines, leads with a sizeable difference. The second position belonged to its northern neighbor – Canada – which has only 1.400 ATMs.
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This article was originally published inUncharted Territories.
It’s 2050. The U.S. government just defaulted on its debt. It’s not meeting its social security payments. Hospitals are going down: they can’t operate without Medicare and Medicaid income. Old people line up outside the hospitals, hospitals don’t service them, they can’t afford it. There’s a run on the banks that held too many dollars, they are collapsing. All of the governments around the world caught with too much U.S. debt are defaulting. Those with their savings in dollars have been wiped out. They are looking at the last few decades of their lives like an empty ravine.
What happened? The internet and blockchain technology.
Every time a new information technology is discovered, our power structures change. Speech allowed chiefdoms. Writing allowed kingdoms, empires and churches. The printing press replaced the Catholic Church and feudalism with the nation state. Broadcasting made totalitarianism viable by allowing the efficient transmission of propaganda.
This time, we have not one but two new information technologies: the internet and blockchain technology. How will they undermine the nation state?
The Nation State Becomes Inconsequential
In the 19th and 20th centuries, nation states became the ultimate powers, thanks to their control of gatekeepers. This was nowhere as true as in broadcasting.
The government established the agenda of what was going to be discussed. It controlled what broadcasters would say. Information flowed from newspapers, TV, and radio to citizens. You could hardly influence it in democracies, forget about autocracies.
Then came the internet.
The Sovereign Individual
When I wrote “Why You Must Act Now,” I couldn’t conceive that it would be read by over 40 million people. When I wrote “The Hammer And The Dance,” I couldn’t fathom that governments around the world would draw inspiration from it.
A normal guy, surrounded by children in his San Francisco apartment, reading scientific papers in sweatpants, put out a piece that took governments around the world by surprise on the most important topic of their careers.
This would have been impossible 20 years ago: Back then, information flowed from gatekeepers with a tight relationship with governments, from newspapers to TV and radio stations. That establishment decided what people would think that day, and you couldn’t influence it.
You couldn’t search for the scientific papers you needed, because they weren’t available on the internet. And even if you got your hand on the data, you couldn’t let others know because we didn’t have social media. The internet gives you the inputs and outputs to short circuit the nation state and its gatekeeping gang.
That’s how QAnon spread like wildfire, convincing 15% of Americans that its conspiracy movement is legitimate (only 40% reject it), stoked by a pseudonymous person with intimate knowledge of game design.
That’s also how another pseudonymous person, Satoshi Nakamoto, created a trillion-dollar asset class by solving a math problem, writing about it, posting his article on the internet, and coding the Bitcoin blockchain.
Now people form their opinions online and spread them online. They interact online and transact online. Most of the time, governments don’t even know that this happens. Traditional gatekeepers are bypassed. No more approval from them.
Given how many authors are killed because of their creations, it’s not a coincidence that both QAnon and Nakamoto were pseudonymous: fake names allow more subversive changes without retaliation. Who’s going to cancel QAnon? Who is going to arrest Nakamoto to bring down Bitcoin?
What is new is not the value of pseudonymity or anonymity: historically, over half of books were pseudonymous or anonymous. What’s new is how easy it is to remain hidden. While crypto-Jews feared for their lives under the Inquisition, Nakamoto could be walking past you and you would never know it.
If a nation state can’t retaliate against creators, how can it prevent them from subverting the nation state?
“The Sovereign Individual” predicted most of this rise in individual power nearly 25 years ago. However, it focused more on the decentralization of power, which would flow from nation states to individuals. But the internet also has a centralization force.
The Rise Of Multinational Organizations
Who enables the search of scientific papers? Google. Who enables the spread of information? YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, TikTok….
QAnon, the Bitcoin white paper, my COVID-19 articles, or any other person’s posts would have been highly unlikely to be created or distributed without the rise of behemoth tech companies.
The change goes beyond social media.
Who replaces your cabs? Uber. Lyft, too, if you’re in the U.S. And a couple more players internationally.
Who replaces your travel agencies? Booking.com, Google Flights, Expedia… Not thousands of companies.
Many of the industries that had millions of companies around the world now concentrate that wealth and influence in just a handful.
How much power do you think they wield? And where do you see that going?
Network effects account for 70% of the value created by tech companies. The more these network effects grow, the bigger these companies become, and the bigger share of the economy they represent.
As these companies grow, they start treating nation-states not as masters, but as peers:
“The director of public affairs of one of these companies pointed out that when he was in charge of relations with public authorities within a large traditional American company, he obeyed the regulators’ instructions without negotiating: ‘then, we complied.’ Today, on the contrary, he states: ‘we don’t surrender without negotiating hard first.’”
–Gilles Babinet, Institut Montaigne
When Spain wanted to tax Google News, Google just stopped serving the country with the service. When nation states wanted to preserve their monopolies on cabs, Uber rolled over them until they accepted it. Airbnb disrupts local supply and demand of housing. Tesla challenges dealership laws. Cryptocurrency supporters push back on threatening laws. Apple did not give the FBI backdoor access to phones.
Social media is particularly powerful, by filtering what is acceptable for people to believe, by nudging them in some directions with their algorithms, and sometimes by taking the megaphone away from nation-state leaders.
And SpaceX will give everybody everywhere free access to the internet. Governments won’t be able to do much against it.
Source
How will Venezuela censor the free flow of information that falls from the sky?
Look at the sad show of the U.S. Congress hearings of tech executives, or the deplorable show of the Federal Trade Commission case against Facebook. The nation states see the rise of alternative powers like the Church saw the rise of the Protestant Reformation. Both tried to fight, but they’re fighting against the unstoppable progress of technology, which drives the economy, so it will eventually win.
As a result, companies undermine nation states in two ways: On one side, by making information available, they extract power from nation-state gatekeepers and local companies to empower individuals to become more independent. But they also keep some of that power for themselves, becoming new gatekeepers.
Blockchain Technology
This centralizing force of corporations is countered by the decentralization force of blockchains. But blockchain technology means a lot of things to a lot of people. What is it?
There is, of course, bitcoin as a store of value alternative to gold, and stablecoins and fiatcoins as alternatives to fiat currencies, making it that much harder for nation states to print money.
There is Ethereum, Cardano, DeFi, NFTs, and all the rest of the crypto economy, which is building an alternative to the existing economy that bolsters nation states.
But the solution to the Byzantine Generals Problem devised in Nakamoto’s Bitcoin white paper goes further. Why? Because it made decentralized majority rule possible.
Historically, how did you trust that your cab was legit? Because it had a license from the government. How did you know to eat in that restaurant? Because it was certified to be safe by the government. How did you know your house was yours? Because it was registered by the government. How did you know somebody was American? Because they had a passport from the government
You always needed a gatekeeper.
What about money? How did you certify you had money? You either showed the cash or you needed an attestation from your bank. How did you prove you knew something? You needed to show a certificate provided by an academic institution. How did you prove anything was true? You got a seal from a notary public.
You always needed a gatekeeper.
Nation states were the ultimate gatekeepers, because not only did they control their own services, but they also controlled the rest of the gatekeepers via regulation. They drew all of their might from this control.
Since the Bitcoin white paper was published, that power is gone. We haven’t needed gatekeepers to certify most of these things. You don’t need the corruption, absurd regulations, and abuse of power that goes with it. We can build better solutions with more crowd-sourced feedback, faster feedback, crypto-oracle verification. We just haven’t built all of these solutions yet.
The future is already in the brain of the 200 million cryptocurrency holders, who can be better understood as a country, as an alternative community to nation states.
A nation-state citizen doesn’t question the sovereignty of the government, doesn’t question the validity of its currency, doesn’t fathom a world without the TVs and radio stations and notary publics and certification organisms that make the nation state what it is. They wrap their heads around 20th-century country flags. They can’t fathom the end of the nation state, just as 1500s-era Europeans couldn’t fathom the end of the omnipotent Catholic Church.
None of this is true for blockchain citizens. They get it. They hodl (It’s the term for crypto — “hodling” instead of holding) crypto because they don’t trust fiat currencies. They build DAOs because they understand the corporation is on its way to the grave. They insist on smart contracts because how else are we going to trust each other?
Who do you think they have more in common with, their patriot neighbors or their crypto siblings? Do you see alternatives to nation states emerging already?
The Supranational Entities
If you’re alone, you don’t need a political system. The point of the government is to agree on how we will coordinate. The more people there are, the more coordination problems emerge, and the more we need to regulate. The size of governments has always grown with the size of the problems to solve.
It’s not a coincidence that the League of Nations appeared just after WWI, and the UN after WWII. New governance follows the size of the problems. Since then, a globalized financial system has birthed the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to help countries in need of money in exchange for… a bit of their sovereignty. Or a lot. Ask Argentina. The World Trade Organization coordinates countries so that they can better trade between each other, at the expense of some of their sovereignty. They can’t do whatever they want in trade.
The only reason why the World Health Organization (WHO)’s failures have been so salient during the pandemic was because it was so needed. Who cares about a useless organization failing? But we do care about the WHO because we realize that pandemics are not a national problem. They’re global. The Delta variant didn’t care about the Indian soil that saw its birth. As long as countries let people in, it was going to travel with them.
In fact, the main reason why the WHO failed is because of nation states. It was China’s secrecy and its censorship over Taiwan and the American defunding and all this governance that depends on the dysfunctional nation states.
But eventually, some governance systems will emerge to fill the need of global pandemic coordination. Because that problem isn’t going away, and now we know.
Something similar can be said of climate change. Why, despite wildly popular support, are most countries not taking enough action? Because that support has not translated into the political action that nation states monopolize today. No wonder: nation states were never built for global action. They are obsolete to the problems we need to solve.
But why can’t a community emerge where citizens around the world can pledge support to the politicians who do want climate change policies? Why can’t they make that pledge a public, automatic commitment on the blockchain? It hasn’t happened yet because we haven’t gotten around to it. But it will. When that community emerges, will it be more or less powerful than nation states? Or simply another group that nibbles sovereignty away from nation states?
Somewheres Vs. Anywheres
The Somewheres identify with their locality: their city, local sports team, church, regional state, country. The Anywheres don’t care as much. They feel comfortable anywhere with liberal values, from Buenos Aires to Tokyo; places where they can connect to the internet to work, socialize, read… They have more affinity with those who think like them globally than those who live with them locally.
As more of our daily activities move online, as we interact more with people from across the world, identity will continue moving online. The more it does, the more people will leave the ranks of the Somewheres to join the Anywheres.
Comment from “Internet and Blockchain Will Kill Nation-States”
We know this because it already happened in the past.
Before the printing press, people in Europe talked mostly with their neighbors in their very local vernacular, while the Catholic Church spoke a universal Latin that gave them power. As the printing press started publishing in whichever local vernacular was most widely spoken — i.e., that of the biggest cities — it accelerated Latin’s demise while the local vernaculars of the biggest printing centers slowly grew in popularity until they became national languages that shared ideas and identity across geographies. This is what eventually led to the rise of nation states.
Now that people can talk with anybody in the world, exchange their ideas, find soulmates, and people who think alike, naturally their identity will outgrow nation states.
This will be accelerated because we have one clear winner as local vernacular:
Source:International Strategic Analysis
Which results in the entire world learning English.
The more life happens online, the more content gets produced in the winning vernacular — English — and the more people learn it. As it spreads over the world, so do ideas and identity.
And the only way English doesn’t become the world’s lingua franca is if we get a universal translating device that really works, which would simply achieve the same goals faster.
So, let’s summarize. Nation states will become irrelevant as:
Individuals become more powerful because they have access to more information, they can spread more information, and they can do so without national gatekeepers controlling their opinions
The emergence of pseudonyms makes retaliation against individuals hard
Corporations keep some of the sovereignty they take away from nation states, and start treating them as equals
Blockchains decentralize power, making government gatekeepers obsolete
Supranational organizations rise to solve global problems, extracting sovereignty from nation states along the way
Communities of anywheres emerge globally, accelerated by the internet and blockchain technologies, the desire to fight global problems, the emergence of global governance systems, and an ability to better understand each other through a universal English or its equivalent translation technologies, diluting the patriotic sentiment
All of this erosion of sovereignty happens just as nation states go bankrupt. Even if they haven’t realized it yet.
The Nation State Is Broke
As nation states lose power, their ability to tax and print money will plummet, just as their costs skyrocket. How are they going to keep their promises then?
Corporate Taxation
It’s not a secret that big corporations use international loopholes to avoid paying taxes. What is new is the nation states finally trying to rein them in.
Recently, about 135 countries agreed to fix a minimum floor to global corporate taxes. This is quite a feat: coordinating two-thirds of countries into anything is very hard. Look at climate change. If only countries had the same incentives in that area…
But that agreement obscures the reality that an agreement between 135 countries still leaves 60 countries that don’t participate. Sixty countries for loopholes.
More importantly, some countries’ existence depends on having lower taxes.
Before it reduced corporate taxes in 1995, Ireland was a pretty poor country. Now it’s the richest one per capita in Europe. This is mostly leprechaun economics, a reporting effect due to the oversize impact of big corporations — the average Irish person is not as rich. But it reflects how much Ireland has attracted companies thanks to lower taxes, companies that can then be taxed, even if just a little, thus filling the coffers.
So, why would Ireland agree to such a deal? Maybe because it does not intend to respect the spirit of the law?
Corporate tax rates: official vs. effective (for foreign firms). E.g., Ireland’s official corporate tax rate might be 12.5%, but foreign companies manage to pay only 4%.Source.
None of this is new. Pharma and finance companies, among others, have been doing this forever, because their value depends mostly on intellectual property, so they’ve been avoiding taxes for a long time.
But this problem is about to enter turbo mode because companies are more global than ever. It’s easy to pressure the local mining company to pay their taxes, or the local manufacturing plant. But how do you tax a company that can put its servers, its lawyers, and its intangibles anywhere it wants? How do you tax the Anywhere companies?
Until now, the answer was: “wherever the headquarters is”. But what if there’s no headquarters anymore?
Remote Work
Remote work is inexorable. Before now, the headquarters were defined as wherever the main office was and that was where a company had its leadership and the most white-collar employees.
What if companies don’t have a headquarters anymore, and go fully remote, like Automattic (the maker of WordPress.com), Invision, GitLab, Gumroad, Twitter, Square, Quora, Notion, Zapier, Coinbase, Basecamp, Fujitsu, Hims, Shopify, Dropbox, Skillshare, Spotify, Stripe, Hubspot, Coda, Figma, Trello, Upwork, VMWare, Box, Affirm, Okta, CrowdStrike, Reddit, Docker, Atlassian, Coinbase, Snowflake and REI?
Sure, as we go back to a certain post-COVID normality, many people will go back to the office. But only a few white-collar jobs will be fully office based, while the vast majority will be hybrid.
I estimate that between 10% and 25% of all U.S. jobs will be fully remote after the pandemic, and I believe that will keep going up. Evidently, fully-remote companies can decide to put their headquarters wherever they want. The more they grow, the more they will avoid taxes.
And that’s corporate taxes. What about individual income taxes?
If Musk can pack up and leave for Texas despite leading not one, but two very industrial companies, what do you think all the remote workers will do? Those who can work from a café on the Lisbon beach and pay a flat 20% income tax? Do you think they will stay around in high-tax jurisdictions in the long term?
And as corporations and founders and workers start optimizing for their taxes, how do you think countries will react?
Already, digital nomad visas have been approved in countries like Costa Rica, Georgia, Dubai, Cayman Islands, Bermuda, Antigua y Barbuda, Mexico, Australia, Thailand, Germany, Czech Republic, Portugal, Norway, Estonia and Croatia.
These same countries have started offering lower tax rates to compete for the same remote workers, with a 24% flat income tax for newcomers in Spain, 20% in Portugal, a maximum of 22.5% in Greece, between 5% and 12% in Italy, and no local taxes in Croatia. These are countries that usually have top marginal tax rates close to 50%.
And of course, as an American, the one place in the world where you can reduce your federal income taxes is Puerto Rico, where you could pay as little as 4% in income tax and 0% in capital gains incurred while living there.
To be clear, this is a good thing, for them and for remote workers. These countries are just understanding these dynamics earlier than anybody and adapting to the new world before everybody else because people are less mobile than companies, but they are mobile, too. The same way tax havens lower taxes for all corporations by competing for corporate tax income, so will countries keep lowering their taxes to compete with remote workers.
The way they do this today is by keeping a high taxation rate for locals while luring in people living abroad, so as not to drop their current tax income. But you can imagine that as more people do this, these incentives will become more long term. Spain is already proposing to extend the tax benefits of remote workers from six to 10 years.
So as companies and people become more mobile, they will keep shopping around for the best tax deal, lowering overall taxes. That is, when they even pay taxes.
Crypto Taxes
The more that blockchains power the economy, the harder it will be for nation-state governments to track all of these money movements, and the harder it will be for them to tax these movements.
Today, the way governments do it is by regulating local banks, by getting direct data feeds from them, by intervening the international money flows through the SWIFT system, by freezing assets… But how do you do that in a world where all exchanges are decentralized?
This is why the U.S. government freaked out about cryptocurrencies and tried to force every crypto player to report everything. It’s why when El Salvador announced bitcoin would be legal tender, the World Bank refused to help and the International Monetary Fund warned of dire consequences — both of these organisms are controlled by nation states, particularly the U.S.
The nation state fears the loss of its grip on the financial system, without which it’s much harder to force the tax payments it needs. But that trend is imparable.
And if you think nation states will reduce international tax avoidance, ask yourself: are politicians interested in closing these loopholes?
Where are the 336 politicians mentioned in the Pandora Papers from? Source:Pandora Papers, ICIJ.
Politicians are the first to take advantage of these rules. They will never close the loopholes.
Limited Fiat Printing
Of course, at the same time, it’s harder to finance yourself by printing money when people don’t use your money.
Countries like Weimar Germany, Venezuela, Argentina and Zimbabwe know well what happens when you print too much money: dramatic inflation and dollarification — people escape from the local currency and start using dollars instead.
Since 2009, however, governments like in the U.S. and the EU discovered that they could print money without dramatic penalties. So they started pumping the printing press.
It took 96 years for the Federal Reserve to print $1 trillion, but six years to reach $4 trillion (after 2009). Since the beginning of the pandemic, the money supply has doubled. But this time, it wasn’t without consequences.
And you have to realize this is the government printing the money and the government telling you the inflation rate. If the normal escape from local inflation is the dollar, where do you escape from the dollar?
This is one of the key reasons why the stock market has been doing so well in the middle of a pandemic. But stocks aren’t a perfect alternative. Cryptocurrencies are, because they’re not denominated in dollars.
The more of the economy that happens through cryptocurrencies, the less the government will be able to rely on the printing press to fund itself.
All of this, of course, is happening at the time when the governments will break under the weight of pensions they can’t pay from taxing workers that don’t exist.
The Demographic Ticking Bomb
All of this is happening while at the same time we’re having fewer kids.
Children per woman.Source.
But — thankfully — we’re living much longer.
Life expectancy between 1770 and 2015.Source.
Unfortunately, most nation-state governments are incapable of raising the retirement age accordingly. As a result, workers must support ever more retirees.
Dependency ratio.Source.
This graph means that a retiree in the 1980s in developed countries like Japan, China and the European Union had more than five workers to pay for her old-age benefits like healthcare and pensions. In Japan, every retiree only has two workers to support her. Europe will get there in 10 to 20 years. The U.S. will follow soon after.
Already today, over 20% of European governments’ spending is dedicated to old-age benefits. If that doubles, how much money will be left? Especially since a big chunk of government income must be spent to service the debt — to pay back all of these bonds we happily buy at “risk zero.”
Meanwhile, the debt keeps piling up in the developed world.
Governments in developed countries are more in debt today than after WWII.
This is the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) projection of U.S. federal government debt:
According to the CBO, in 10 years the U.S. federal government will spend half of its discretionary budget on those aged 65 and older.
Escape Velocity
So, just to summarize here:
Nation states with developed economies won’t be able to fund themselves as they’ll have a hard time taxing corporations and individuals because of the internet, remote work and blockchains.
At the same time, they will have a harder time printing money because of cryptocurrencies
They won’t be able to emit debt forever either, because their debt is already through the roof. Servicing it will cost more and more.
This happens just as their costs increase because their population is aging
Instead of doing what they should — realizing they overpromised and correcting accordingly by raising the retirement age — they try to control their technological foes: social media, multinational corporations, mobile individuals, blockchain technologies…
We know how this ends. It happened five centuries ago, when the Catholic Church tried to suppress the printing press instead of reforming itself. It failed because it couldn’t stop the avalanche of technological progress. Within decades of the invention of the printing press, it had splintered, never to return to its glory days again.
For nation states moving forward, there are only two paths. The first one is totalitarianism. They can do like China, split from the rest of the world, and control everything that happens internally, at the cost of destroying development and erasing individual freedom.
The other alternative is choosing freedom, which means competition between many of the 195 countries that exist today, the extreme difficulty of collusion between them, and the unavoidable result of the demise of the nation state.
The only question left is: What will replace nation states? I will cover this in upcoming articles. Subscribe now to receive them.
This is a guest post by Tomas Pueyo. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
A flash-crash triggered a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s value on the Binance.US trading platform, causing an abrupt 87% devaluation in the price of the leading crypto asset.
On October 21st, the price of Bitcoin briefly tumbled to a low of $8,200 from $65,952 on Binance.US, the arm of global crypto exchange Binance in the United States. Within five minutes, the value of the crypto surged back up to $65,000, negating all the losses from the massive sell-off.
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In an email to Bloomberg, Binance explains the root cause of the flash-crash event.
“One of our institutional traders indicated to us that they had a bug in their trading algorithm, which appears to have caused the sell-off.
We are continuing to look into the event, but understand from the trader that they have now fixed their bug and that the issue appears to have been resolved.”
Data from Binance.US shows that over 594 BTC exchanged hands during the crash, worth over $36 million at time of writing.
The price of Bitcoin did not suddenly nosedive on other cryptocurrency exchange platforms that day, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,849, a 9.3% decrease from its seven-day high of $67,118, according to CoinGecko.
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