Bitcoin has struggled over the last few months, falling by more than half from its peak of around $65,000 set in April.
The bitcoin price is still up significantly from before it began its latest rally in October, a bull run that sent combined crypto market to a staggering $2.5 trillion before crashing back (subscribe now to Forbes’ CryptoAsset & Blockchain Advisor and discover crypto blockbusters poised for 1,000% gains).
Now, a panel of cryptocurrency experts has predicted bitcoin will overtake the U.S. dollar as the dominant form of global finance by the year 2050—putting the bitcoin price at just over $66,000 by the end of 2021.
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MORE FROM FORBESCoinbase CEO Hits Back At Dogecoin Creator After Attack On ‘Cult-Like’ Bitcoin And Crypto Price CultureBy Billy Bambrough
The bitcoin price has surged through 2021 but its rally has stalled–some think bitcoin is going to … [+]climb far higher over coming years.
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“Some countries will leverage bitcoin as their primary currency of choice,” said one panelist, Thomson Reuters technologist and futurist Joseph Raczynski, who said he thinks bitcoin will overtake the dollar by 2025 with a value of $150,000. “With fixed circulation, ease of transfer, it will serve them well to move to a ‘bankless’ model inherent in this ecosystem.”
This year, El Salvador has adopted bitcoin as legal tender alongside the U.S. dollar in a controversial economic experiment. Other Central and South American countries have indicated they may follow suit in an attempt to escape dependence on the dollar.
However, the bitcoin price is predicted to fall further before finding a floor, with the panel consensus of $25,000 per bitcoin—down around $8,000 from its current price of around $32,000.
While 54% of the panel, surveyed by personal finance comparison site Finder, expect bitcoin to eventually overtake fiat currency—sometimes called “hyperbitcoinisation”—by the year 2050, 44% of panelists, including University of Western Australia associate professor Lee Smales, don’t expect bitcoin to ever become the dominant form of global finance.
“Ultimately I think bitcoin (and many other cryptocurrency assets) will lose out to central bank digital currencies—many of which will be live by the end of the decade,” Smales said.
This week, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said one of the stronger arguments for a digital dollar is that it could undermine the need for bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies and so-called stablecoins, digital currencies such as tether that are pegged to traditional assets.
In Europe, the E.U. has moved forward with plans to develop a digital euro over the next couple of years while China has already begun real-world trials of its digital yuan.
CryptoCodex—A free, daily newsletter for the crypto-curious. Helping you understand the world of bitcoin and crypto, every day
MORE FROM FORBESGoldman Sachs Reveals Surprise Coinbase Prediction After $1 Trillion Bitcoin And Crypto Price CrashBy Billy Bambrough
The bitcoin price has added around 250% since this time last year, soaring to an all-time high of … [+]just under $65,000 in April 2021.
Coinbase
Despite warning the bitcoin price is could fall further in the coming months, over the medium to long-term the panel made an average bitcoin price prediction of $318,000 at the end of 2025.
“We’re standing in the midst of the institutionalization of bitcoin,” said Arcane Crypto analyst Vetle Lunde who forecast a $120,000 bitcoin price by the end of 2021 and thinks bitcoin will be worth $300,000 at the end of 2025 and $500,000 in 2030. “More funds are joining the space, the first country has adopted bitcoin as legal tender, and we have several exchange-listed companies now owning bitcoin. I believe this trend will continue onwards.”
The popular crypto trader and host of Coin Bureau is outlining why he thinks Ethereum (ETH) has a chance to reach a larger market capitalization than Bitcoin (BTC).
In a new video, the pseudonymous analyst known as Guy tells his 1.17 million subscribers that the decentralized finance (DeFi) space has the potential to attract a stampede of investors looking for yields that are superior to traditional financial instruments.
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Given that DeFi is largely dependent on Ethereum, the analyst says the possible surge in adoption of decentralized finance protocols could fuel ETH toward becoming the biggest crypto on the market. He says the potential trigger could be Ethereum and other smart contract platforms going through their expected upgrades to become cheaper and more efficient.
“Once these upgrades go through, the demand for these smart contract cryptocurrencies is going to go through the roof for one reason: DeFi. The yields you can find on even the most vanilla DeFi protocols are much higher than anything any centralized financial intuition can currently offer you. Investors big and small are feeling the squeeze from low-interest rates and high inflation, which basically made any yield below 5-7% a break-even number. This is why institutional investors have been piling into DeFi…
Whereas Bitcoin is still recovering from its hash rate collapse, Ethereum’s has been comparably unaffected and its decentralized financial ecosystem has likewise remained stable. I’m sure that institutions also like that they can have a say in Ethereum 2.0 by staking ETH, which is something that is now available at a bank in Switzerland.”
The closely followed crypto influencer says that Ethereum has a good shot at overtaking Bitcoin and also names one catalyst that could seal the deal altogether.
“Because of these and other factors such as general user adoption, I think it’s very possible that we’ll see Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap when the next bull run comes around. This is essentially guaranteed if Ethereum sees an [exchange-traded fund] before Bitcoin, and it looks like this might just happen.”
At time of writing, multiple Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been filed for registration with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) but none have been publicly approved. The host of Coin Bureau posits that there’s a chance one of the filings has already been approved, though no announcement of an approval has been made.
“Now, perhaps this is just wishful thinking, but as far as I’m concerned it’s not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’.”
[embedded content]
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
One of the most common objections I still hear to holding any bitcoin is, “I just don’t understand what it is or how it works.” You, reading this right now, might even feel this way.
You’re likely reading this article on the screen of a phone or computer so think about this:
Do you understand how the words on your screen were delivered to your device?
Do you know how TCP/IP or HTML work? Do you know what those acronyms mean?
Do you know how the computer you’re holding converts bits of information into the photons reaching your eyes?
I’m going to take a guess and say no, you are not sure how any of this works. You don’t understand it at all, yet if you look in Screen Time on your iPhone, you’ll see some staggering usage of a device and system you cannot begin to explain.
The average adult spends 3.5 hours per day on their phone.
Image source
But you don’t need to know how these systems work because you find value in them. And that’s enough.
Let’s look at an even more abstract system: money and investments. You probably earn money every month and keep it in a bank account, pay for your life with a credit card and cash checks once in a while.
Do you know how your bank clears and settles transactions?
Do you know how Robinhood keeps the accounting for your stock portfolio and executes trades on your behalf?
Do you know how the Federal Reserve “conducts the nation’s monetary policy”?
Even if you work in the financial system, I’ll take a guess that you do not have a full grasp on how these systems work. In many cases, the operators of these systems have no reason to help you understand — they often benefit from obscuring how they work to the outside world.
Even though you don’t understand how these systems work, you interact with them every day because you understand the value of each in your personal life.
Understanding Value
Understanding what something is or how it works is not a prerequisite to finding value in it. Bitcoin is no different. You can find value in it without feeling like you have a deep understanding of how it works or what it is. Plus, the earlier you get involved in Bitcoin and recognize that it could have value for you, the more you stand to gain as others come to realize the value Bitcoin can bring to their lives.
The moment Bitcoin “clicks” will be the moment you look at its properties in context of what you need. The simplest, one sentence description of Bitcoin is often enough to do this:
Bitcoin is an asset with a fixed, predictable supply that can be transported anywhere in the world in seconds and securely stored in your own brain.
I’m not going to explain how any of that works, because frankly, you don’t need to know. You only need reasonable assurances that all of this is true, just like you have reasonable assurances that your paycheck will come through or that the email you just sent to your boss will make it to their inbox. I’ll get into those assurances later.
So, what do you need that Bitcoin might be able to help you with? Maybe you want…
To buy assets that produce income, so you can escape the nine-to-five rat race.
To preserve savings against inflation until you retire.
To escape tyranny by moving your savings out of a broken financial system or oppressive government’s reach.
Buying Assets
You want to buy a slice of a business that pays you each month, so you can eventually live off of that income instead of working nine-to-five (or longer). Why are businesses today insanely overvalued compared to their revenues? Why would investors continue to buy the stock of companies at such insane valuations?
Assets that pay you are an important part of financial freedom, but their prices are increasingly unaffordable these days.
Image source
We have to look at how central banks conduct their monetary policy, which lately means mashing one button: PRINT. The U.S. Federal Reserve increased the dollar’s supply by 24% last year alone. That makes cash a bad store of value and pushes investors into other assets.
Instead of sitting on cash, investors are buying stocks and investing in any business with even a flimsy pitch deck, making it hard for you and I, earning salaries or working odd jobs, to buy an asset that produces income for a reasonable price.
Investors are not even buying companies for the income they produce anymore; they are just buying them hoping they can sell them later for a higher price. Investors are ultimately scrambling to buy scarce assets. Investable companies are slightly more scarce and difficult to create than fiat currencies operated by governments — especially when those governments show you their willingness to print infinite currency.
Some investors are starting to realize that a far more scarce asset now exists and they are piling into it in waves. It is unique among assets in that it has a fixed, predictable supply. That asset is called bitcoin.
Preserving Savings
You want to grow your savings so you can retire comfortably, but inflation is always creeping up and eating away your nest egg and the value of your wage or salary. Why do we see steadily rising prices over the past century? It has nothing to do with economic growth and everything to do with the fact that our currencies do not have a fixed, predictable supply. The currencies we use today are constantly manufactured — you could call it counterfeited — by central banks. This debases the value of all units of that currency in circulation.
Image source
If you want to protect your savings against the rising price of goods and services in your home country’s currency, you need money that cannot be debased. You need money that doesn’t carry a negative real interest rate, like almost all fiat currencies today. You need bitcoin.
Escaping Tyranny
You may have it even worse: you aren’t just trying to escape the rat race or save up, but you are threatened by a hostile or corrupt financial system or government that could snap up your savings overnight. Cash in a bank account is easy to freeze or seize. A nice piece of property can be taxed or taken by force. A bag of jewelry can be seized at the border. What you need is an asset that’s highly portable and easy to secure: bitcoin.
Image source
An East German border guard jumping to West Berlin — the “Leap of Freedom” — with only the clothes on his back. Source: Time
What if you just want to rent everything and work until you drop dead?
If this is you, maybe you don’t need bitcoin. The World Economic Forum predicts that by 2030 “You’ll own nothing” — and rent everything. You don’t need to worry about asset prices outpacing income growth because you’re happy to be sitting in your cubicle at 70, making sure you can pay rent on your shoebox this month and continue to lease your clothes.
If you would prefer a bit more independence and self-determination in your life, maybe bitcoin is something you’d benefit from.
How can you trust this simple definition of bitcoin?
I mentioned needing reasonable assurances that the properties of bitcoin which make it such a powerful tool for saving money and gaining independence hold true.
How does bitcoin provide reasonable assurances that it truly is a fixed supply, highly portable, secure asset and unit of account?
Reasonable Assurances
Instead of reading every line of Bitcoin’s code and reasoning about how it all works in practice, we need to take a step back and look at history. We rely on this type of reasonable assurance just to get through our daily lives.
You do not read the entire operation manual of your car before you trust it with your life at 70 miles per hour on the highway. You are reasonably confident you’ll be fine, given the brand of the car and the fact that most of your friends didn’t have to read the manual to use their cars safely.
You do not chemical test every meal because you’re pretty sure the greens at your local grocery store aren’t going to poison you (though sometimes, they do).
We use history and the experience of others to gauge everything in our lives. Let’s apply that to Bitcoin.
To get a sense for whether Bitcoin fulfills its promises of being fixed in supply, instantly portable and secure to store, we need to ask ourselves:
Has Bitcoin operated in a predictable manner over its history?
Can we use it to transfer value globally, and quickly?
Is it secure to store and use?
Predictable Supply And Operation
Bitcoin is far more predictable in its supply (“inflation rate”) than fiat currencies, which are subject to the whims of a few powerful people.
Bitcoin’s predictable monetary inflation rate vs the US Dollar’s erratic changes.
Image source
Bitcoin also sports lower downtime than other payment networks — even everyday ones like Visa or settlement systems like FedWire.
Given that the asset has never seen a supply shock and has flawlessly stuck to its pre-ordained inflation rate over 12-plus years while experiencing rapid growth and securing hundreds of billions of dollars in value, we can be pretty sure it will be predictable going forward.
Surely more predictable than the dollar and not devalued systematically!
Fast, Global Value Transfer
Try sending money to someone in another country, and let me know if you’re able to do so in less than a few days without paying a hefty fee. That’s our existing banking system: clunky and costly.
Bitcoin does not care what piece of land you happened to be born on or the size of the transaction you’re trying to make. As long as you have an internet connection and the bitcoin address of your recipient, you can broadcast a transaction and have it settled in minutes.
People do this every day with Bitcoin, moving billions of dollars, experiencing zero issues. For the last 12 months, somewhere around 150,000 bitcoin have moved on the Bitcoin blockchain each day. You can be reasonably sure your transactions will go through as well.
Image source
Secure Storage
No other asset matches the security and portability of bitcoin. Put some on a hardware wallet or on an app on your phone and see for yourself. If you save your seed phrase and any passphrase you set up, you can smash your wallet to bits and still get your bitcoin back with just the seed words you wrote down. Memorize them and you can take them anywhere. Try walking out of a hostile country with gold bars in your brain.
More and more people trust the Bitcoin network with their savings each day since its inception. You don’t have to look far to see the value locked in bitcoin and the number of addresses and wallets growing.
The protocol itself has never been hacked — nobody has lost a single satoshi (one-hundred-millionth of a bitcoin) to a protocol error. That’s beyond a reasonable assurance of safety.
But… It’s Volatile!
Importantly, it is a mistake to look at the bitcoin price as evidence of the properties of bitcoin because a market price consists of not one asset but two: a base and a quote asset. When we look at the price of bitcoin, we are looking at its price in U.S. dollars, or in Euros or in some other fiat currency which does not have a fixed, predictable supply.
The supply of fiat currencies — and perceptions about how that supply might change due to central bank policies — has a massive effect on asset prices. Just look at the S&P 500 dips around Fed policy changes and announcements. Bitcoin, when priced in dollars or another fiat currency, is subject to this volatility. The volatility is further accentuated by the vagaries of demand for a very new and misunderstood asset, plus the doggedly predictable supply of bitcoin. If you’re willing to wait three or four years, your purchase of bitcoin usually goes up in fiat terms despite volatility in the interim.
Regardless of price swings, the Bitcoin network continues to operate. Its basic properties remain true.
What Is Bitcoin To You?
This is the question you must ask yourself to “understand” Bitcoin: not what it is but what it does for you, for your loved ones, for our societies.
To me, it’s a better form of money and the best way to save. Money is a technological system just like the internet or your car, but with a far longer history and more importance to society’s peaceful functioning and development. Getting money “right” can mean peace or war, life or death for societies and people.
Instead of trying to understand Bitcoin, you may want to start by trying to understand what Bitcoin is replacing: our existing global monetary system. Here’s one place to start.
This is a guest post by Captain Sidd. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.
If one word could be used to describe how the majority of participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem feel about the near-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) it would be ‘undecided’, as mixed signals from all manner of indicators have many traders waiting for a significant move in either direction before planning their next entry point.
A new report from Delphi Digital took a macro look at Bitcoin’s current price action and found that a variety of factors, including low exchange volumes and the strengthening U.S. dollar have weighed heavily on the top cryptocurrency.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source:TradingView
Bitcoin’s recent dip to $31,000 adds to the aura of fear that currently envelops the crypto market and analysts are now warning that failure to close above $31,000 could see BTC drop to the $29,000 to $24,000 zone.
Here are three areas of focus that Delphi Digital highlights as being the most impactful on the short-term price action for Bitcoin
Spot volumes and open interest collapse
According to Delphi Digital, declines in trading activity are one of the biggest factors affecting the market. This is because after the May 19 sell-off there was an exodus of spot and derivatives traders from exchanges.
Spot exchange volume. Source:Delphi Digital
As seen in the chart above, after seeing a substantial increase during the first half of 2021, exchange volumes have fallen by more than 60% as prices collapsed and traders swore off using leverage.
The precipitous drop in BTC price also helped to tamper down retail traders’ use of high leverage in derivatives markets and proof of this comes from BTC futures open interest dropping back to levels seen since early 2021.
Delphi Digital said:
“This purge has caused significant damage to the bullish market structure, with futures basis near 0% and depressed funding rates for perpetual contracts.”
On a more positive note, the mega liquidation event seen back in May helped clear out overleveraged traders, meaning “stronger-handed participants are the ones primarily contributing to current open interest levels.”
Dollar strength leads to BTC weakness
Another factor weighing on the price of Bitcoin has been the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, which has been on an uptrend since bottoming at 89.53 on May 25.
DXY 1-day chart. Source:TradingView
As seen in the chart above, a large inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed on the DXY chart with the neckline now being tested for the third time.
Should the dollar make another leg higher, the current economic recovery could be threatened as financial conditions would tighten and this might weigh heavily on many of the most popular trades of 2021.
Delphi Digital said:
“Commodities, gold, emerging market equities, Bitcoin are all vulnerable to a strengthening greenback, though the speed of its move also remains a critical factor.”
Bitcoin price falls to a long term support
While the 51% drop in BTC price has many analysts afraid that another multi-year bear market could be starting, it’s important to account for some of the larger macro trends that led to the current conditions.
Bitcoin month-over-month returns. Source:Delphi Digital
The above chart shows that Bitcoin had six consecutive months of price gains before a downturn and the asset was due for a pullback from a historical perspective.
Even with BTC down 51% from its all-time high, on a year-over-year basis, its price is still 250% higher than its $9,100 valuation on July 16, 2020.
The long-term uptrend for Bitcoin remains intact with its price currently testing the 12-month moving average, an important level of support that will determine where the price heads from here.
BTC/USD vs. 12-month moving average1-month chart. Source:Delphi Digital
Bitcoin trading volume on spot and derivative exchanges is down and the prospects of a strengthening dollar weigh heavily on global financial markets. This has resulted in indecisiveness being the primary emotion that rules the crypto market at the moment and this sentiment is likely to persist until a major price movement or motivating event prompts engagement from sidelined traders.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Coming every Saturday,Hodler’s Digestwill help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.
Top Stories This Week
New data hints why Bitcoin price action has spent two months at $30K
Bitcoin (BTC) posted another week of range-bound price action. Bitcoin has traded in a fairly tight range over the past several days, acting more like a volatile stablecoin than the bullishly tilted turbulent cryptocurrency folks know and love. Bitcoin has largely been stuck in a price range between roughly$30,000 and $40,000 for weeks.
Nunya Bizniz, a Bitcoin-focused Twitter personality, noted $30,000 as apotential key levelon Bitcoin’s price chart, citing a number of reasons,including a Fibonacci level.
Will Bitcoin head north or south next? No one knows for sure, butdata from Glassnode revealedfolks stocking up on BTC off centralized exchanges, with roughly2,000 Bitcoinleaving those platforms each day over the past fortnight. Such data rhymes with activity seen in April, when Bitcoin rose to nearly$65,000 per coin.
On the bearish front, trader Michaël van de Poppenoted a potential price fallfor Bitcoin down to around$29,000 and then $24,000if support around$31,000broke down.
SEC delays decision on Wisdom Tree Bitcoin ETF
An approvedBitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF)continues to elude the United States. This week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, postponed its decision onWisdom Tree’s Bitcoin ETF, looking for comments from the public on the product — something the commission has done in the pastregarding Bitcoin ETF proposals.
“The Commission requests that interested persons provide written submissions of their views, data and arguments with respect to the issues identified above, as well as any other concerns they may have with the proposal,” the SEC detailed in a public document.
MoreBinanceheadlines flowed in this week as the exchange decided to halt stock token trading offerings. The company gaveno rationale for the move. Folks with current positions in the platform’s stock tokens are allowed a90-day windowto exit their trades.
Over the past couple of weeks, Binance hasfaced regulatory resistanceona number of fronts.
This week brought further regulatory news regarding Binance.Italy jumped on the bandwagonofnational regulators concerned with the exchange. Binance lacks approval for providing crypto trading in the region,according to a warning sent outfrom theItalian Companies and Exchange Commission.
US government delves deeper into crypto accountability with $10M bounty
United States government agencies have not been shy about regulating the burgeoning crypto industry. Thursday news detailed thatPresident Biden’s team plans to further track crypto asset usage. In part, the team is focused on looking for anyransomwareties to crypto usage.
Folks who help the government track down nefarious characters involved in certain online attacks could find themselves rewarded with as much as$10 million in bounty.
Crypto community divided on whether Bitcoin is an inflation hedge
For many in the crypto community, Bitcoin is considereda potential hedge against inflation. Bitcoin’s recent price action, however, has given less evidence for such classification as inflation surges to decade highs in the U.S. Some folksdoubt the asset as a hedge, while others argue the opposite.
Meanwhile, former U.S. Treasury SecretarySteven Mnuchinhasslightly altered his take on BTC.
“The first part of it is I think the underlying technology of blockchain is really incredible and has lots of different things, particularly in fintech and finance,” he told CNBC. “I think as it relates to Bitcoin — if people want to buy Bitcoin as a substitute, no different from buying gold or some other asset — it’s fine.”
Winners and Losers
At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at$31,895, Ether at$1,911and XRP at$0.59. The total market cap is at$1.30 trillion,basedon CoinMarketCap data.
Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Axie Infinity(AXS)at 57.38%, Flow(FLOW)at 30.36%, and NEM(XEM)at 17.86%.
The top three altcoin losers of the week are Telcoin(TEL)at -31.02%, 0x(ZRX)at -24.41%, and Theta(THETA)at -23.42%.
For more info on crypto prices, make sure to readCointelegraph’s market analysis.
Most Memorable Quotations
“We’re trying to be the fastest tortoise in the race. The long game pays off over time.”
Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of crypto exchange Gemini
“The issue isn’t #Bitcoin, #Ethereum, or other crypto protocols — they’re just fine. The risk comes from the banks’ operational processes.”
Caitlin Long, Avanti Bank & Trust CEO and founder
“I think the regulatory pressure is stronger than before but it will get a lot of bad actors out of the industry and make sure that the industry’s reputation is much better than without it. So, I think this kind of a crackdown may be a good thing for the industry in the long term.”
Jihan Wu, Bitmain co-founder and ex-CEO
“Market intelligence suggests cryptoassets are largely held by retail investors, with institutional investors having limited exposure at present. However, there are some signs of growing interest in cryptoassets and related services from institutional investors, banks, and key payment system operators. These developments could increase the interlinkages between cryptoassets and other systemic financial markets and institutions.”
Bank of England, the United Kingdom’s central bank
“If we are the biggest exchange, [buying Goldman Sachs and CME] is not out of the question at all.”
Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX CEO
“The easiest industry to reduce overnight was a gray area industry. Some 68,000 gigawatts of power was removed instantly from China just by saying no to Bitcoin mining.”
Phil Harvey, CEO of Phoenix Store
“Certainly Bitcoin has been a great performer over time. But most of the gains have occurred during a great global deflationary period in which all risk assets rose. Now that inflation is picking up for real, for the first time since Bitcoin’s inception, it’s drastically underperforming.”
Mati Greenspan, founder of a firm known as Quantum Economics
“You wouldn’t need stablecoins, you wouldn’t need cryptocurrencies if you had a digital U.S. currency. I think that’s one of the strong arguments in its favor.”
Stephen Lynch, U.S. representative
“I believe that cryptocurrency is an inherently right-wing, hyper-capitalistic technology built primarily to amplify the wealth of its proponents through a combination of tax avoidance, diminished regulatory oversight and artificially enforced scarcity.”
Jackson Palmer, Dogecoin co-founder
“Money is definitely a drug.”
Damien Hirst, artist
Prediction of the Week
El Salvador Bitcoin move will put pressure on network: JPMorgan
Bitcoin became an official currency of El Salvadorin June. However, a recent report from JPMorgan Chase doubts Bitcoin’s ability to function under that context.
Bitcoin’s scalability has been a significant talking point in recent years, with the asset transitioning to astore of valuerather than a currency. Bitcoin’s blockchain does not move funds particularly quickly or cheaply compared to mainstream payment cards or various other crypto assets.
In the JPMorgan Chase report, experts note the weight BTC must carry should El Salvador rely heavily on the asset following its recognition as legal tender. “Daily payment activity in El Salvador would represent 4% of recent on-chain transaction volume and more than 1% of the total value of tokens which have been transferred between wallets in the past year,” the report detailed, as per Bloomberg.
FUD of the Week
Ukrainian police seize 3,800 PS4 consoles used for illegal crypto mining
Allegedly, a group of crypto miners thought it was a good idea to set up shop in a warehouse previously owned by an electricity supply outfit calledJSC Vinnytsiaoblenergo.
Pilfering the necessary wattage from JSC Vinnytsiaoblenergo, the unlawful miners usedalmost 4,000 PlayStation 4 consoles, as well as many other tech devices, for their operation. Ukrainian police raided the facility.
Crypto crackdown targeting USD access points has begun: Caitlin Long
The regulatory skies may be darkening in the distance, withfurther crackdown headed toward crypto in the United States.
Bitcoin and Ethereum may be safefrom the storm in a direct manner, althoughregulators may pursue fiat on-ramps and middlemen connected to crypto activities, according to Avanti Bank & Trust founder and CEO Caitlin Long.
UK FCA will spend £11M to warn people about investing in crypto
TheUnited Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority, or FCA, sees crypto investing as highly risky, according to adraft of a speech from FCA executive Nikhil Rathi.
The agency wants the country’s people, particularly its younger generations, to know about such risks, putting about$15 million worth of pound sterlingsto work toward getting its message across. “More people are seeing investment as entertainment,” Rathi expressed, as per the draft.
Best Cointelegraph Features
Hedge funds see the crypto market decline as an investment opportunity
From rebalancing cash positions to announcing new investment products, hedge funds seem undeterred by the current crypto market decline.
China’s crypto industry is gone? Beijing’s crackdown keeps sending shockwaves
The Chinese government’s ongoing crusade against cryptocurrencies might have dramatic consequences for both domestic and global crypto traders.
Adopting a decentralized way of life, from small steps to giant leaps
Decentralization may seem out of reach for many, but here are some realistic ways to reject the idea of centralization in our daily lives.
Cardano overtakes Bitcoin as the most held crypto on eToro in Q2
Dogecoin rockets in popularity, becoming the fifth most held crypto
Tron was the biggest mover in Q1
Retail investors are increasingly confident about the potential of cryptoassets, despite this quarter’s market correction, with new eToro data revealing increases in the numbers of crytoassets being held during the last quarter (Q2).
Perhaps surprisingly, Cardano’s ADA leapfrogged Bitcoin to become the most held crypto in the second quarter of 2021, seeing a 51% increase from the previous quarter. Bitcoin, which led the cryptoasset bull run at the start of the year, remained popular – seeing a 42% increase in demand – however, it was eclipsed by ADA and slipped from first to second place.
Simon Peters, crypto market analyst at eToro, commented,
“During Q2, Cardano provided a clearer roadmap for its upcoming Alonzo hard fork – currently in a testing phase. If successful, it will bring smart contract functionality by allowing the writing and deployment of smart contracts for the first time on the Cardano blockchain. This upgrade will be significant as it will enable developers to build projects on the network, helping Cardano to position itself as a real ‘competitor’ of the likes of Ethereum. The price of ADA climbed over the last quarter, suggesting investor optimism around the Alonzo hard fork and Cardano’s ability to challenge Ethereum long term.”
Ethereum, which has seen a big price rise this year, also gained in popularity, experiencing a 79% increase in investors holding the asset. This is ahead of the hotly anticipated London hard fork, slated for July, which will see increased functionality added to the network and preparation for the Serenity (ETH 2.0) upgrade slated for 2022. It will also include the EIP-1559 update which will change how gas fees are paid on Ethereum 1.0 going forward. This will see base fees adjusted to market rates, with the option of speeding up transactions by tipping miners.
Simon Peters said,
“Cryptoassets have had an exciting year, with big milestones achieved in terms of price movements and increased institutional investment signaling more adoption by the traditional financial services ecosystem.
No matter the headlines, we urge retail investors to be mindful of the risks when investing in crypto and to do their research before investing.”
Most held cryptoassets among eToro clients globally in Q2 2021
Rank
Cryptoasset
Q1 2021 rank
Q2 2020
1
Cardano (ADA)
2
6
2
Bitcoin (BTC)
1
2
3
Ethereum (ETH)
4
3
4
XRP (XRP)
3
1
5
Dogecoin (DOGE)
N/A
N/A
6
TRON (TRX)
6
13
7
Stellar (XLM)
5
5
8
IOTA (MIOTA)
8
11
9
Litecoin (LTC)
7
4
10
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
12
9
Source: eToro. Data accurate as of 01.07.2021.
The data in this table represents the top ten cryptoassets held by global investors on the eToro platform in the second quarter of 2021. It does not include positions held as CFDs.
Investors diversify in the search for the ‘next Bitcoin’
Despite attention focusing mainly on the cryptoassets with the largest market caps, the biggest moves in Q2 came from smaller cryptoassets, with Tron (TRX) and Ethereum Classic (ETC) leading the charge. Tron (TRX), in particular, saw impressive gains, with a 163% increase in global users holding the asset in Q2 as compared to Q1 of this year, and Ethereum Classic saw a 151% rise quarter on quarter, alongside a 247% year-on-year increase.
Simon Peters continued,
“Rather than focus solely on Bitcoin and Ether, where many investors can only own a fraction of a coin, we are seeing increasing demand for lower priced coins. With owning one Bitcoin out of reach for most retail investors, many are looking for cheaper alternatives like ADA, MIOTA and TRX, all of which are priced around $1. With staking rewards available on eToro for Tron and Cardano, investors are now able to reap rewards for holding these assets long term, which is helping to drive demand.
The emergence and increasing popularity of altcoins means the crypto ecosystem is becoming stronger, with greater diversity and more and more use cases. It’s great to see investors looking beyond the store of value, and opening up their portfolios to assets they believe will not only help hedge against growing issues such as inflation but provide solutions other assets might be encountering.”
This post originally appeared on the eToro blog.
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Cryptocurrency exchange Binance says it is ending support for stock tokens on its main trading platform.
Binance says that by halting stock token purchases immediately, it can shift its focus to “other product offerings.”
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“Today, we are announcing that we will be winding down support for stock tokens on Binance.com to shift our commercial focus to other product offerings. Effective immediately, stock tokens are unavailable for purchase on Binance.com.”
Binance introduced the stock tokens in early April, which enable users to access shares of companies listed in traditional stock exchanges.
The global crypto exchange started with electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA) and later added stock tokens of software firms MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Microsoft (MSFT), iPhone-maker Apple (AAPL), and crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN). Binance introduced stock token trading in partnership with investment firm CM-Equity AG.
Binance says users have until October 14th at 19:55 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) to voluntarily close their positions in stock tokens.
“Users will no longer be able to manually sell or close their positions after 2021-10-14 19:55 (UTC). Thereafter, all stock token positions on Binance.com will be closed at 2021-10-15 13:30 (UTC).”
Users on the exchange who reside in the European Economic Area and Switzerland will be able to migrate their stock tokens to a CM-Equity AG portal that will become operational weeks before the mid-October deadline.
“The portal is scheduled to be open approximately two-to-four weeks before 2021-10-15 (UTC), and additional KYC (know your customer) measures will be requested by CM-Equity AG to complete the transition.”
Binance’s decision to withdraw support for stock tokens coincides with the growing regulatory pressure the exchange has been facing. In June, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority announced that Binance Markets Limited is not permitted to operate in the UK.
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
Bank of America is reportedly taking a big first step into the crypto markets.
The second-largest bank in the US has launched Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading for a select group of clients, according to a report from CoinDesk.
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Anonymous sources “with knowledge of the matter” say a small number of clients are already up and running, and additional clients are currently going through an onboarding process.
The move would make Bank of America the latest in a string of financial institutions to support the emerging digital asset industry.
In February, BNY Mellon announced it’s working on a platform that will allow clients to transfer, safekeep and issuance digital assets.
In March, Morgan Stanley revealed it’s giving wealthy clients access to BTC.
In April, Goldman Sachs said it plans to offer crypto exposure to clients in its private wealth management group.
In May, crypto custody firm New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) and Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) confirmed they are working together to allow hundreds of US banks to support Bitcoin, the top crypto asset.
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
With bitcoin’s price losing more than $3,000 in days and reaching a multi-week low, the crowd sentiment remains mostly negative, shows recent data. However, similar developments have turned out to be signals for local bottoms in the past, and the question remains if history is to repeat itself.
The Sentiment is Low, But Could That Be Good?
Bitcoin tried to break above $37,000 at the end of June, but it was quickly rejected and headed south in the following days. Despite the relatively positive start of July when BTC attempted another breakout, the asset has actually lost more than $5,000 of value since June and reached a three-week low earlier today.
Naturally, these adverse developments have affected investors’ general feelings and approach towards the primary cryptocurrency. Data from the analytics resource Santiment shows that the overall Twitter sentiment toward Bitcoin “remains negative,” with most comments predicting more price slumps hidden around the corner.
Crypto Twitter Sentiment on Bitcoin. Source: Santiment
However, BTC’s price actually tends to perform in the opposite direction of the general sentiment, as the graph above demonstrates. For instance, the crowd was mainly optimistic in early January when BTC had reached a new all-time high, but it quickly retraced. Once the community resumed the negativity again, bitcoin went on an impressive run resulting in tapping $65,000.
As such, Santiment concluded that the current negative state means, “there is a higher degree of a price upswing to catch the crowd off guard.”
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Fear and Greed Also Says Negativity Rules
While Santiment’s data from above shows the Twitter sentiment, the Fear and Greed index displays a more macro picture. Apart from social media discussions, it calculates various types of data, including volatility, surveys, and volume, to determine whether the general mood is positive or negative in regards to bitcoin.
The metric presents the final results from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It actually supports the aforementioned narrative as it shows a state of “extreme fear,” which has dominated the market for a few consecutive weeks. In fact, the index has only gone down lately as it’s now at 15, while last week was at 20.
It’s also quite affected by the most recent price movements, but history shows that BTC has reacted well when the index was so long in a deep state of fear.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
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Mark Mobius, renowned emerging markets investor and co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, believes upcoming actions from the Federal Reserve could drag down the cryptocurrency market.
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In aninterviewwith Kitco News, Mobius says he expects financial markets, particularly cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, to drop if the Federal Reserve decides to rapidly taper asset purchases.
“They actually are doing a little bit of tapering, in any case, but if it’s done rapidly and suddenly, then you could have a real tantrum. It could have the markets affected dramatically, because people will then be looking for the finance, but it’s not there. The money will not be available.
I think you’re going to see, when that happens, the cryptocurrencies will be hit badly, and that will affect the psychology of many, many people, particularly young people who invested a lot of money in cryptocurrencies. And then of course, you’ll see a decline in the stock market.”
The investor adds that the crypto asset class will most likely be the first domino to fall once the Federal Reserve begins tapering and fiscal stimulus dries out.
“In order for these cryptocurrencies to maintain their value, they need more inputs of money. In other words, [you’ve got to] have more people coming in and believing these cryptocurrencies will go up in value. Of course, you have the same thing with the stock market, but cryptocurrencies [are] particularly vulnerable to a shortage of … extra cash.”
Mobius says that the technology industry is also vulnerable to an asset bubble pop.
“I’m talking about tech companies who are not earning any money … but are being propped up by hope, by people who hope that there will be another Amazon or there’ll be another Apple or whatever… These will probably be hit first.”
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