Bitcoin’s Game Theory Is Not Cut And Dried

Game theory is the science concerning the systematizing of strategic conflict and cooperation among rational actors. It was formalized in the mid-40s by the genius polymath John Von Neumann, and then it allegedly found its way into all kinds of science, even though the only people talking about it are venture capitalist types like Balaji Srinivasan using it in word salads to make simple things sound very complex.

When game theory got a little pop culture notoriety with John Forbes Nash Jr.’s depiction in the 2001 biographical drama “A Beautiful Mind,” it somehow became one of those things that people thought could be utilized as a life hack without ever really understanding it, like nootropics and magnetic bracelets. No, seriously, what are nootropics?

To be fair, plenty of things can be appreciated just by reading their Wikipedia entries, but that does not an international affairs expert, nor a set theorist, make. Not everything is a perfect instance of the prisoner’s dilemma, or a tragedy of the commons, or a game of chicken. Again, unless you’re in Silicon Valley and wearing those ugly thousand dollar tennis shoes they all wear.

A game needs, at the very least:

1. Rational actors: players who have specific goals and act in order to achieve them

2. A set of finite and well-defined actions players can make

3. A set of finite and well-defined possible countermoves to those actions from every other player

Games are made challenging and/or complex by:

1. Determining a player’s goals with certainty

2. Iterating a player’s possible “moves” given an adversary’s move, especially if it’s a continuous game with no clearly-defined end state. This can very quickly get bogged down in probability and Bayesian theory.

3.Determining how much information each player has at any given moment

This is why game theoretic simulations for even moderately complex systems are frequently computer-based.

Enter Bitcoin. Which is to say, enter the space where Bitcoin, Bitcoiners, and others reside adjacent to it. Game theory is a frequent rebuttal/reason, wielded with a high level of confidence, for some actor doing this or that, or for hyperbitcoinization to be an inevitability. This is presumably because Bitcoin has rules which are extremely defined, very hard to change, and which generally encourage cooperation. But it’s not that simple.

We really have (at least) three sub-games going on, in which the actions and outcomes in one can potentially affect the actions and outcomes in another:

1. Acting within Bitcoin. This most closely resembles a cooperative symmetric game, where agreements are enforced by a third party, which in this case is the protocol itself, and the identity of actors is less important – again, because of the protocol.

2. Adopting Bitcoin. The decision to step into number 1.

3. Interacting with Bitcoin outside of it.

Let’s dig deeper.

The game theory of acting within Bitcoin is inarguably the most concrete of these. It is set by the code, which is extremely difficult to alter, and is extremely costly to manipulate. This high cost, translated as censorship resistance and security, is a large portion of the value people find in Bitcoin. The predictability of particular actions by particular actors is extremely well-known. As the network becomes more robust and mining becomes more decentralized, this almost isn’t even a talking point anymore. Bitcoin will soon become denser than iridium, and finding some leverage against it will be largely infeasible.

The game of adopting bitcoin, although admittedly I’m using the term a little more loosely here, is where things start to get interesting. The power structures that exist within national governments and the legacy financial system have been perpetuated largely due to immoral actions, such as predatory lending, questionable wars, the petrodollar, cronyism, and the revolving door between them all. Maximal personal liberty and the current socioeconomic and political climate are mutually exclusive. Again, this is not an opinion. Hyperbitcoinization means, at the very least, a severe dampening of this climate.

Adoption of Bitcoin in any capacity is not immediately in the best interest of most nations. Not since George Washington has such a powerful leader or entity readily given up power. No one should expect any large nation to go quietly. Hyperbitcoinization will not roll down to us from the hill of good fortune. We have to hike up ourselves and claim it. And it will be a long and steep one. No country will step out of a game where they made the rules – and can always adjust them to their benefit – and enter into another game with steel walls guarded by those who used to be their subjects. They must be pushed in.

Critical mass is, at least in part, one of the issues. This is why El Salvador’s actionsare such a watershed moment. Many people correctly theorized that it would be a smaller country, under some economic control of a larger one, to adopt Bitcoin. With much diligence and good faith effort, they will hopefully flourish, and their neighbors will be encouraged to do the same. And large nations know there is strength in numbers. It cannot be overstated that this upsets the way of doing things In the modern world, and that other actors will try to thwart it.

You cannot reasonably expect a dishonest and malicious player to suddenly become cooperative.

Interacting with Bitcoin while outside of it is, in this writer’s humble opinion, the most problematic of these three games. The first two games now have considerable momentum behind them. The censorship or extreme regulation of Bitcoin seems to be the lowest cost way to resist it. What form that would take is less than obvious, but the options are limited. You can (attempt to) restrict ownership, purchasing, trading (which is to say, transmitting/routing transactions), or mining. Now, that’s “only” four avenues, but they are each as wide as the FBI’s pocketbook is deep.

Bitcoin, like the Constitution or the Bill of Rights, is not self-enforcing. It requires protecting. And the only thing to do is make Bitcoin more antifragile. Fungibility and censorship resistance will carry the team to hyperbitcoinization.

All of this is to say that the road is not even paved yet, and we shouldn’t be quick to assume the going will be easy. But at least we know where we’re headed.

This is a guest post by Nameless. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.


Tagged : / / / /

How Ethereum Can Reach $2 Trillion In Market Cap, Matthew Sigel

Ethereum has had a lot of growth in the past year. Growing more than bitcoin and producing more gains. But it is no secret that the market cap of Ethereum is still a long way away from $2 trillion. The market cap of the digital asset currently sits at $248 billion.

A $2 trillion market cap prediction might be overly optimistic. But Matthew Sigel does not believe that it is. According to Sigel, Ethereum can reach a $2 trillion market cap in a “blue sky scenario.” The prediction does not come as a surprise given the level of confidence in Ethereum lately. With forecasts even reaching as high as $20,000 per coin in some cases.

What’s A Blue Sky Scenario?

A blue sky scenario is used in financial markets to represent the best-case scenario for an asset. There are usually three kinds of scenarios in financial markets. The first is the base case. The base case is the most probable scenario for an asset. This is used to represent the most likely outcome for an asset. Usually the most conservative case.

5 BTC + 300 Free Spins for new players & 15 BTC + 35.000 Free Spins every month, only at mBitcasino. Play Now!

Related Reading | Ethereum to $20,000? Factors Behind The Bold Call

The next is the worst-case scenario. In worst-case scenarios, everything fails regarding the asset and nothing works out. All assumptions and predictions do not come to fruition. And the asset most likely fails.

Lastly is the blue sky scenario. The blue sky scenario is when everything goes according to plan. The asset does as well as it could possibly do in the market. Forecasts are correct for the success of that asset.

Get 110 USDT Futures Bonus for FREE!

The blue sky scenario for Ethereum is where Matthew Sigel believes that the $2 trillion market cap is a possibility for Ethereum.

A base case scenario would be seeing the market cap of ETH hitting $1 trillion in a few years. Maybe by the next bull market. But a $2 trillion market cap in a blue sky scenario does not seem out of place for a digital asset with countless utilities.

Ethereum is quickly catching up in popularity with the number 1 which is Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin still commands a much higher market valuation than Ethereum does by over 50%.

Ethereum Is A Disruptive Technology

Sigel has always been on the lookout for technologies that possess the power to “disintermediate not only big tech but other kinds of centralized institutions.” Sigel had said this when he was talking about his conclusions to buy Google on his investment research note “Google is evil.”

Related Reading | Ethereum Breaks $2,000, What You Should Prepare For

According to Sigel, blockchain technology is such that anyone can join the network from anywhere as long as they had an internet connection.

Sigel noted that the valuation of Ethereum is still very cheap when compared to other Web 2.0 software companies. The price to sales valuation was much lower. But he continued on to say that the volatility of the asset and the earnings model is what can help to push the price up.

Ethereum is in a position where it could capture a large share of global retail revenues.

Ethereum market cap from

Ethereum market cap from

Ethereum currently undervalued at $248 billion market cap | Source: Market Cap ETH from

Sigel’s May 25th research note pointed out that Ethereum was poised to take most, if not all, revenues from investment banking, asset management, payments, and trading industries.

Speaking further on this, Sigel believes that if Ethereum could capture two-thirds of this value and the Ethereum market cap and revenue ratio held steady, then Ethereum could very well land an enterprise value between $1.8 trillion and $2.3 trillion.

Matthew Sigel joined VanEck in April as the Head of Digital Assets Research. This role did not exist previously at VanEck and it is a sign that the company is moving towards more innovation and research within the digital space.

Sigel had previously worked as a financial journalist for Bloomberg, CNBC, and NHK.

Featured image from Publish0x, chart from


Tagged : / / / /

NFL Star Tom Brady Determined To Stake Big In The Crypto Field

The crypto bug is seemingly proving to be having a big bite on the sports industry as Tom Brady joins other sports celebrities pursuing a dream in the blockchain sector.

The quarterback of the Super Bowl champs – Tampa Bay – had for weeks indicated his enthusiasm, through several tweets about crypto before declaring his intention now to be a “pioneer” in the industry.

The Super Bowl GOAT had for a few days back told the media that he’s a “big believer” in cryptocurrencies. Also, he further disclosed he had acquired some digital coins, which he declined to reveal when asked which ones specifically.

5 BTC + 300 Free Spins for new players & 15 BTC + 35.000 Free Spins every month, only at mBitcasino. Play Now!

Sports Personalities Delving Into Cryptocurrency Sector

The announcement has made this sports personality the latest entrant into the crypto-world.

This development is coming a few days after a prominent and controversial former batsman from England – Kevin Petersen – affirmed that he’s “getting closer & closer to joining the #bitcoin world.”

Related Reading | Top English Cricketer Kevin Pietersen Acknowledges Bitcoin (BTC)

Get 110 USDT Futures Bonus for FREE!

Similarly, one Shoaib Akhtar, an ex-Pakistani cricketer, had before then launched the world’s first cricket-centric NFT marketplace about two weeks ago.

The FTX Company 

Following his latest crypto activities, Tom Brady has been appointed a brand ambassador for FTX. The FTX is a US-regulated cryptocurrency exchange built from the ground up.

It is a company bent on growing the digital currency ecosystem, offering the US and international traders a platform that inspires their loyalty, and becoming the market-leading US-regulated cryptocurrency exchange.

Tom Brady Met Sam Bankman-Fried

Today, during a Q&A on Twitter that the company mainly organized to promote his new role as their brand ambassador, the experienced quarterback talked with pomp over his latest partnership with the crypto exchange. But unfortunately, he also dismissively belittled the threat of the recent market doldrums.

Related Reading | Blockchain Caucus Co-Chair: Government Needs The Ability To Reverse Transactions

On being asked by his host Sam Bankman-Fried, about what exactly his recent exodus of tweets on Twitter were driving at, “I want to be a pioneer in this field,” Brady revealed.

Host Sam Bankman-Fried is the founder and CEO of the US-based digital currency company.

What Attracted Brady?

In the half-hour-long dialogue with the CEO, Brady assessed his current adventure into the blockchain industry. He equally revealed why he had chosen the FTX over others.

He revealed a “charitable mission” adoption, given the rapidly growing crypto exchange.

Indeed, a fact check shows the US-regulated exchange has obliged to donate 1% of all “net fees” to charity and has thus far put up $10 million from the pledge.

“I got a call from a guy I work with who has a lot of great knowledge about this space. He said, “I think this would be something you would be interested in.” Brady, talking about how he was intrigued to start digging into the company.

The results were his investment into the company and the ensuing ambassadorial reward, he said.

Brady, however, never ceased to give more significant credit on FTX’s charitable project, which he said endeared the company to him the most.

Tom Brady Excited To Partner With’ Charitable’ FTX

“I’m excited about the endless possibilities that we have to create things together,” Brady said, as he revealed how exciting it is for him to partner with FTX in giving back to the communities, the planet, and spreading the crypto knowledge.

The 43-year-old super bowl’s “greatest of all time” revealed his new role at FTX is inclusive of his wife.

He explained she would be working primarily on the charitable part of the partnership. She will help determine which charities to fund with the money the FTX continues to raise, Brady revealed to Sam Bankman-Fried.

Super Bowl Star Tom Brady Determined to Stake Big in The Crypto Field

Undoubtedly, the cryptocurrency sector is appealing and it’s gaining traction at an impressive pace. As the most renowned sports personalities show interest in Bitcoin and other digital assets, the prices are expected to skyrocket in the near term.

Featured image from Tom Brady's Twitter, Charts from


Tagged : / / / / / /

Top Analyst Says He’s Bullish on Ethereum and Cardano – But Another Altcoin Is Looking Stronger

Cryptocurrency analyst and YouTuber Jason Pizzino is considering several crypto assets as the market bounces off of its recent lows.

Pizzino tells his 190,000 YouTube subscribers that he’s bullish on Ethereum in the long run, although he expects ETH to drop against Bitcoin in the near term.



“ETH, it’s one of those ones I’m happy holding…

I still think it’s got a little further to fall. It is starting to slow. I wouldn’t be so surprised if I saw a little bounce here, maybe to 6%, maybe further just to come up and test these lows again before it keeps trickling down.”

The YouTuber says that Cardano (ADA) is also on his radar given that it maintained its value better than other altcoins amid the selloff.

“Cardano is looking strong. This is one of those tokens, one of those cryptos that I would be looking at purchasing if I see a base begin to form before other cryptos. Like I said, I’m not going alt shopping, but ADA is definitely high on the radar considering how strong it has been holding up.”

Pizzino says Solana (SOL) is looking even stronger than ADA, as it has held onto its BTC value since May 15th.

“SOL/BTC is dead on the same as it was on the 15th. So we haven’t lost any Bitcoin value from that [point]… That’s strong in my opinion, and like I mentioned earlier, there are now some alts which I would consider beginning to dollar cost average into.

Solana is one of those. Cardano is potentially another, but Solana looks a little stronger here. ETH is potentially another, but I’m still waiting on that.”



Pizzino says he is also eyeing the utility token of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, Binance Coin (BNB).

The cryptocurrency analyst argues that it “is a good sign” that Binance Coin on the US dollar chart (BNB/USD) is currently above the 0.618 level on the Fibonacci indicator despite having fallen by around 50% since May 15th.

“Binance, it is down 50% from the 15th. Down around 50%… It is starting to find some support at the previous re-accumulation zone before it took off to its last top. Potentially [it] could break further. I’m just pointing out the obvious here that you can see it is starting to hold up. And we’re also on our 61% level which is a good sign.”

The Fibonacci indicator is a tool used by many traders to highlight levels of interest during market pullbacks. Traders often see signs of strength in an asset if it manages to stay above the 0.618 level in times of market corrections.

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get crypto email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Telegram

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix


Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Featured Image: Shutterstock/Freve


Tagged : / / / / / /

Crypto miner claims all major Yunnan operations shut down in advance of CCP anniversary

Reports alleged that cryptocurrency miners in China’s Yunnan province may be out of commission for a day if not longer due to the Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary celebration this week.

According to Kevin Zhang, the vice president of mining infrastructure company Foundry Services, all major Bitcoin (BTC) mining farms in Yunnan have been shut down as of today. Zhang said he personally knew of at least two crypto mining sites in the southwestern region that had received orders to cut power.

The shutdowns are purportedly due to the impending Chinese Communist Party, or CCP, celebrations, which occur every year on July 1. Due to this year’s anniversary being a centennial, authorities seem to have taken stronger measures to ensure less pollution — China ranks as the 14th worst country in terms of air quality — traffic, and political demonstrations. Major industries including coal mining and steel production will reportedly be shut down for up to a week in an attempt to reduce urban smog and prevent accidents.

However, it’s unclear if the CCP anniversary is directly related to the shutdowns or Chinese crypto miners are responding to an ongoing regulatory crackdown. The State Council’s Financial Stability and Development Committee announced in May it would be curtailing BTC mining amid financial risk concerns. Several reports have surfaced since that time suggesting authorities are enforcing crypto mining bans in regions including Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai.

Related: China crackdown shows industrial Bitcoin mining a problem for decentralization

While some companies have said the mining ban is driving them to other provinces within China, a few may leave the country entirely. Many experts in the crypto space expect the regulatory crackdown will push mining firms to relocate to Texas, with abundant renewable energy and a highly deregulated power grid.