Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered their second-most bullish month and could continue their respective runs with new highs by the end of it, reads Kraken’s monthly report. However, the paper outlined a potential $10,000 price drop for the primary cryptocurrency if history is to repeat itself before heading north again.
BTC and ETH: The Bull Side
Overall, March was a positive month for the cryptocurrency market, with the two largest digital assets, namely BTC and ETH, registering new records. In its monthly report on the industry’s development, the veteran US exchange Kraken indicated that bitcoin ultimately gained 30% and closed its sixth consecutive month in green.
This is the asset’s longest monthly winning streak since 2013, when it had seven back-to-back months of increases between November 2012 and May 2013. History suggests that BTC could match that record after April, which is on average the second-best performing month with a medium increase of 51%.
With bitcoin entering the new month at roughly $59,000, a 50% surge will take it to just shy of $90,000.
When it comes down to ether, Kraken seemed even more bullish. The report said the asset currently resides between two major bands – $1,462 and $2,695 and highlighted the latter as the next “big test of resistance.”
Furthermore, the research estimated ETH’s potential peak during this market cycle based on logarithmic regression curves. If the second-largest cryptocurrency is to match its previous run, its price could surge by about 700% from March’s end to $15,238.
In case such a bullish projection indeed materializes, ETH’s market cap will shatter BTC’s current at over $1.7 trillion.
BTC and ETH: Possible Retracements
Although Kraken is overall bullish on the future of the crypto market, the document warned of a few retracement scenarios before any of the optimistic projections arrive.
It explained that BTC’s bull market support consists of two weekly moving averages – the 20W EMA and the 21W SMA. In previous cycles, the cryptocurrency has tested both before surging higher, but it’s yet to do the same during the ongoing run.
On the positive side, both lines are increasing on average with $1,822 and $1,681, respectively, since the start of the year. Nevertheless, the current pace indicates that “a potential bull market correction would drop from –29% to –36% to roughly –17% to –25%.”
To put these percentages in a USD perspective, Kraken estimated that bitcoin could slump to as low as $44,165 or $48,702.
In ETH’s case, the bears could push the asset to near triple-digit price territory if they break below the aforementioned band at $1,462. In other words, ether has to stay above that level to continue on its way up; otherwise, it risks plummeting by more than 50%.
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