A senior Turkish minister said that he’s recently had a change of heart about crypto, also highlighting the government’s plans to regulate it.
Experts told Decrypt that fraud in crypto is a growing concern in Turkey.
Turkish Minister of Industry and Technology, Mustafa Varank, said today in an interview with the local media Bloomberg HT that the government will soon introduce crypto regulations, also adding, “I’m no longer feeling negative toward crypto. Now I understand that they are effective.”
Varank also said, however, that “cryptocurrency is ripe for fraud.” Said the minister: “We won’t give free rein to the cryptocurrency space that has such high risks.”
Varank’s remarks follow President Erdoğan’s statement last Friday that the government is currently working on a plan to lay the economic and legal foundations for cryptocurrencies.
Mehmet Türkarslan, legal counsel at the Turkish crypto exchange Paribu, told Decrypt that the industry is aware of novice traders being defrauded by bogus financial advisors who promise high returns on crypto investments.
“These so-called advisors initially help their unwitting clients achieve handsome profits,” Türkarslan told Decrypt, “and having won their trust, these con artists fuel anxiety and prompt their victims to be allowed access to crypto exchange accounts.”
Fraudsters tell their victims they could help them make even more profits if allowed direct access via TeamViewer, a remote desktop software, to their crypto exchange accounts. Once in, they wire the funds to their own accounts and simply vanish, explained Türkarslan.
“Fraud is a genuine concern in the Turkish crypto market as it is elsewhere in the world,” Beste Naz Süllü, Research Director at the crypto exchange ICRYPEX, told Decrypt. “The minister’s regulatory ambition to fight that is viewed positively across the industry.”
But there’s no indication what regulatory steps will—or indeed, could—be taken to stop fraud. “It’s a tough one because the clients give full access and explicit consent to these advisors,” said Türkarslan.
“There’s cross-party support for crypto regulations targeting fraud,” Alper Akalın, a co-founder of Turkey’s opposition party, DEVA, told Decrypt, “but that’s probably just a smokescreen for the government’s desire to raise tax revenue given its financial troubles.” (DEVA’s leading co-founder is Ali Babacan, who served as President Erdoğan’s economic minister during the lira’s golden years of 2002-2013.)
“As more and more Turks switch from investing in conventional assets to cryptocurrencies,” Türkarslan told Decrypt, “Turkish officials fret losing a potentially significant amount of tax revenue.”
Turkish crypto exchanges have been telling the government that a regulatory sweet spot is necessary, explained Türkarslan. Levying a punitive tax on crypto might just push Turks to seek loopholes, resorting to foreign exchanges that the government cannot regulate in the first place. “Such a heavy-handed move may have chilling effects on the local crypto industry, and the government might just end up with no viable revenue,” Türkarslan told Decrypt.
“There’s a global trend towards regulating crypto as assets rather than alternative currencies, and we certainly hope the Turkish government will also take this approach.”
There’s a silver lining in all this, according to Akalin. “Government wanting to regulate crypto is often a win for crypto—it means they now officially recognize it.”
“The recent institutional interest in crypto, especially Elon Musk, was a wake-up call to the Turkish government,” said Türkarslan. “That might explain why the minister says he’s had a change of heart.”
Turkish government officials are known to closely follow Musk. Turkish President Erdoğan first met him in 2017 to discuss car production. They last spoke in January reportedly about space exploration, but there are no reports of crypto talk… for now.
South Korea’s tax authority is targeting individuals who use cryptocurrency to conceal their assets as a way of evading tax payments.
NTS Investigating Tax Offenders Concealing Assets Using Cryptocurrecy
According to theKorea Heraldon Monday (Mar. 15, 2021), the National Tax Service (NTS) clamped down on over 2,400 tax offenders who hid their assets using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to avoid paying taxes. The tax authority stated the total assets concealed amounted to about 36.6 billion won ($32.2 million).
Back in May 2018, South Korea’s Supreme Court ruled that cryptocurrencies fell under intangible assets, making them liable to seizures. Following the ruling, the NTS became the first government agency to clamp down on individuals thought to be concealing assets.
The NTS was able to sniff out tax offenders after collecting data from local cryptocurrency exchanges. South Korea’s law mandates exchanges to implement areal-name verification systemin conjunction with registered Korean banks to combat money laundering. Recently, the country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced that exchanges that fail to comply with existing laws would soon face stiff penalties.
Meanwhile, the NTS crackdown was aimed at individuals with more than 10 million won ($8,800) in tax defaults. Also, the tax authority is carrying out more investigations over 200 such tax offenders who are reportedly guilty of further tax evasion.
A statement from the South Korean tax agency said:
“The recent probe was a part of our ongoing efforts to strengthen a crackdown on anti-social tax dodging. We will capture highly intellectualized (tax evading) cases and quickly redeem their concealed properties.”
The NTS investigation comes amidst a recent surge in crypto transactions in the country. According to the agency’s data, the number of cryptocurrency investors grew over 300 percent in the 12 months, with daily crypto transactions increasing eightfold from 2020.
While the NTS is targeting tax offenders, the South Korean government ispreparingto impose a 20 percent tax on crypto trading profits exceeding $2,200 in January 2022 after various postponements.
However, the impending tax law has faced criticism, with comments that the tax policy could stifle crypto development in South Korea. Also, there is an ongoing petition against the tax law, which has received over 36,000 signatures.
The 2017 Bitcoin (BTC) bull run was led by retail traders, long-term crypto believers and Bitcoin whales. However, the tide turned in 2020 as institutional investors became the catalyst for the latest crypto bull run.
However, data compiled by JPMorgan Chase shows that retail traders have made a strong comeback in the first quarter of this year. JPMorgan analysts used data from Square and Paypal to determine that retail investors bought 187,426 BTC for Q1 2021, which is more than the institutional purchase of 172,684 BTC during the same period.
While this data may not be bulletproof, it gives a good overview of the underlying sentiment from both parties.
Recent data from CoinMarketCap showed that the total volume of crypto transactions from major South Korean crypto exchanges during a 24-hour period on Sunday was $14.6 billion, eclipsing the $14.5 billion handled by South Korea’s Composite Stock Price Index on March 12.
While increased participation is a positive sign, a strong bull market also attracts several weak hands who dump their positions on every minor news and event. This could lead to increased volatility in the short term.
Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to spot the critical support and resistance levels that may attract traders.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin broke out to a new all-time high at $61,825.84 on March 13, but this rally did not attract further buying from traders. On the contrary, traders booked profits after the rally and the price has dipped back below the breakout level at $58,341.03 today.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
However, a minor positive is that the bulls are still attempting to defend the 20-day exponential moving average ($53,231). If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to drive the price above $61,825.84. If they manage to do that, the next leg of the uptrend to $72,112 could begin.
While the rising moving averages favor the bulls, the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests the bullish momentum has weakened. The bears will see an opportunity if the BTC/USD pair dips and sustains below the 20-day EMA.
The next support on the downside is the 50-day simple moving average ($46,504) and then the critical swing low at $43,006.77.
ETH/USD
Ether’s (ETH) sharp rise on March 13 could not sustain the momentum and retest the all-time high at $2,040.77. This could have attracted profit-booking from momentum traders, which has resulted in a drop to the 20-day EMA ($1,729).
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
If the bears utilize this opportunity and sink the price below the moving averages, the selling could intensify. That could result in a decline to $1,455 and then to the critical support at $1,289.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI has dropped below 53 indicating a balance between supply and demand.
This neutral to negative view will be negated if the ETH/USD pair rebounds off the moving averages and surges above the all-time high. This could start the next leg of the uptrend that may reach $2,614.
BNB/USD
Binance Coin (BNB) could not sustain above the $309.50 overhead resistance on March 11. This could have attracted profit-booking from traders, which has resulted in a pullback to the 20-day EMA ($245) today.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
The bulls are currently trying to defend the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off this support will suggest aggressive buying on dips. The bulls will then again try to push the price above $309.50.
If they succeed, a retest of the all-time high is possible. A breakout of this resistance could start the next leg of the uptrend that could reach $410.
Alternatively, if the BNB/USD pair breaks below the 20-day EMA, short-term traders may book profits and that could pull the price down to $189.
ADA/USD
Cardano (ADA) has been trading inside the $1.03 to $1.23 range for the past few days. The altcoin slipped below the range on March 13 but made a strong comeback on the same day itself. Today, the price has again dipped below the support of the range.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
While the bulls have been defending the $1.03 support for the past three days, the bears have not allowed the price to rise and sustain above the 20-day EMA ($1.08). This suggests the bears are attempting to make a comeback.
If the ADA/USD pair closes below the range, it will enhance the prospects of a deeper correction to the 50-day SMA ($0.87). If this support also cracks, the decline could extend to $0.80 and then $0.70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, then the pair could rally to $1.23.
DOT/USD
Although the bulls have successfully defended the 20-day EMA ($34.79) in the past few days, they have not been able to push Polkadot (DOT) above the $37.50 to $40 overhead resistance zone. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI below 53 suggest the bulls may be losing their grip. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the selling could intensify as the short-term traders may rush to the exit. This could pull the DOT/USD pair down to the 50-day SMA ($28.73).
This bearish view will invalidate if the price turns up from the current level and breaks out of the $40 to $42.50 resistance zone. Such a move could start the next leg of the uptrend that may reach $52.50.
XRP/USD
XRP attempted to rise above the 20-day EMA ($0.45) on March 13 but failed, which shows the bears are trying to gain the upper hand. If the sellers can sink the price below $0.42, the altcoin could drop to $0.35.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
The 20-day EMA is sloping down marginally and the RSI is trading in the negative territory, which suggests a minor advantage to the bears.
This bearish view will be negated if the bulls can push the price above the overhead resistance at $0.50. Such a move could attract buyers who may then try to propel the XRP/USD pair to $0.65.
UNI/USD
Uniswap (UNI) again turned down from the $33 to $34.92 overhead resistance zone on March 14, which shows the bears are active at higher levels. The bulls will now try to defend the 20-day EMA ($28.70).
UNI/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
A strong rebound off the 20-day EMA will suggest the sentiment remains bullish and traders are buying on dips. If the LINK/USD pair breaks above the overhead resistance zone, the next leg of the uptrend could begin.
However, the negative divergence on the RSI suggests the bullish momentum may be waning. If the bears sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA, a deeper correction to the 50-day SMA ($23.40) is possible.
LTC/USD
Litecoin’s (LTC) break above $205.18 on March 12 sustained its momentum on March 13, but the bulls could not retest $246.96. The altcoin turned down from $230, which shows traders are exiting their positions on rallies.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
The bears are trying to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA ($197) while the bulls are trying to defend it. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI above 52 suggest a balance between supply and demand.
This equilibrium will tilt in favor of the bulls if they can propel the price above $246.96. Conversely, the bears will gain the upper hand if the LTC/USD pair breaks and closes below the uptrend line.
LINK/USD
Chainlink (LINK) has broken below the moving averages and the trendline of the ascending triangle, which invalidates the bullish setup. Traders who had purchased before the breakout might cover their positions and that could result in a fall to $24.
LINK/USDT daily chart. Source:TradingView
The flat moving averages and the RSI below the center also point to a possible range-bound action in the near term with a negative bias. The trend will turn in favor of the bears if they can sustain the price below $24.
This bearish view will invalidate if the price turns up from the current levels and rises above $32. Such a move will suggest that the current break below the moving averages was a bear trap.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) surged above the $560 overhead resistance on March 13, but the bulls could not build on this breakout. The price quickly turned around on March 14 and the bears have dragged it back below the breakout level at $560.
BCH/USD daily chart. Source:TradingView
The sharp reversal could have trapped the aggressive bulls who were expecting the BCH/USD pair to rally to $631.71 and then $745. If the price sustains below the 50-day SMA ($528), it increases the possibility of a fall to $480 and then $440.
The flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand. The bulls will gain the upper hand if they can propel the price above $609 and the bears will be at an advantage if the price breaks below $440.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin prices dropped from approximately $60,000 to less than $56,000 in a matter of hours.
India’s looming ban on cryptocurrency may have been one factor that affected prices early Monday morning.
Other factors include transfers concerning the Gemini exchange and mass liquidations of long orders.
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A flurry of bad news about exchange inflows and an India-wide crypto ban has apparently caused a dip in Bitcoin prices. Market data, though, suggests that the drop was caused by over-leveraged longs.
Incoming India Ban May Affect Trading
On Sunday night, Reuters published an interview with a senior government official in India who stated that the nation will almost certainly ban cryptocurrency. The pending bill that could achieve that ban will be soon introduced in a right-wing dominated parliament.
The Indian official added that, in addition to a ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining, holding cryptocurrencies will also be a criminal offense punishable by up to 10 years imprisonment. The report has reignited fear among crypto investors in India.
Nevertheless, India’s Finance Minister noted in an interview on Saturday that the government will provide a “window of opportunity” for crypto experiments. She mentioned “blockchain” and “Bitcoin” in her note and expressed uncertainty around a blanket ban.
Though news of the law may have affected the market, it has not stifled Indian trading entirely. Bitcoin continues to trade at a premium on peer-to-peer (P2P) exchanges in India.OnLocalBitcoins,the lowest selling price is 6.6% higher than the global exchange rate, which suggests resilience among Indian crypto investors.
Exchange Activity May Have Affected Prices
Another potential cause of Bitcoin’s price drop was seen on Monday.Analytics firm CryptoQuant suggested that the U.S.-based exchange Gemini saw an inflow of about$1.12 billion.That event could have affected Bitcoin’s circulating supply, and, in turn, its market price.
However, other analysts have contested those claims. According to Glassnode, the transactions were internal: Gemini simply transferred funds between its own internal wallets.
Moreover, the 24-hour trading volume for Gemini was just $138 million, making it unlikely that the transaction was the result of user activity. The exchange has not commented on the matter.
Bitcoin prices fell from about $60,000 to less than $56,000 in the hours after the two events discussed above.
BTC/USD 30-minute chart. Source: Trading View
Bitcoin Long Orders Have Been Liquidated
In addition to the two factors discussed above, market euphoria could be an active source of price volatility.
Cryptocurrency long orders amounting to $2.2 billion have been liquidated over the past 24-hours, according to Bybt data. Bitcoin dominated the liquidations at $1.7 billion; Ethereum followed with $212 million worth of liquidations. The majority of the liquidations ($900 million) were on Binance, followed by Bybt, Huobi, and OKEx.
Bitcoin perpetual funding rate on Binance. Source: Binance
Despite the downturn, prices seem to be trending upward. At publication, Bitcoin traded at $56,500, showing signs of a reversal from the short-term bearish trend. Other factors also contribute to an overall bullish sentiment: new U.S. stimulus cheques are on the way, while Tether has minted $800 million of its U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin.
On the other hand, Bitcoin appears to be losing ground to altcoin dominance, raising the possibility of further downturn in Bitcoin’s price. Thus, crypto traders must brace for volatility this week.
Disclosure: The author held Bitcoin at the time of press.
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An NFT crypto collectible based on soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo sold for $289,920 over the weekend.
The digital sports card is part of Sorare, a crypto fantasy soccer game.
It beat NBA Top Shot’s single-NFT sale record, but NFL star Rob Gronkowski has already topped it.
NBA Top Shot has dominated the recent craze around crypto sports non-fungible tokens (NFTs), but Ethereum-based fantasy soccer game Sorare has been doing it for longer. And at least for now, it has also topped Top Shot with the highest-priced sale of a single sports NFT.
Sorareannounced on Sundaythat a single NFT card of Portuguese soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo sold for $289,920 on the platform, topping all previous Sorare card sales. Additionally, it is the highest-priced soccer card ever sold, physically or digitally, supplantinga recent recordset by the sale of a physical Topps card of Erling Haaland for $124,230.
It also beats the highest-priced NBA Top Shot NFT sold to date: a “legendary” LeBron James momentsold for $208,000 in late February.
👑ALL HAIL THE KING👑@YoDough scooped up this Legendary LeBron James Moment from our Cosmic Series 1 set for $208,000‼️ This Moment is from our first Legendary set ever minted 💯
The top acquisition for any NBA Top Shot Moment … so far.
Congrats on the nice pickup! 👑 pic.twitter.com/rFLMzbwXN7
— NBA Top Shot (@nbatopshot) February 22, 2021
Sorare userCamembert, whose collection includes other high-value cards such as Raphaël Varane and Vinícius Júnior, provided a comment (via Sorare) on the purchase.
“Ninety-nine percent of people probably think it is stupid to spend so much on something that you cannot ‘touch.’ My parents don’t get it and think I am a bit crazy,” he said. “I would personally never buy a Picasso, but I was very happy to invest 300,000 USD in my idol.”
Camembert claims that he has no plans to try and flip the card for an even higher value as the NFT boom continues, adding: “This purchase was not motivated by speculation, I do not plan to sell anytime soon. For me, Cristiano is priceless.”
The Ronaldo Sorare NFT might have enjoyed a very brief window as the highest-value sports NFT ever sold, but it was quickly overcome by none other than “Gronk.” NFL star Rob Gronkowski’s NFT sale ended Sunday nightwith $1.6 million worth of total NFT cards sold, including the “Career Highlight Refractor Card” that sold for 232 ETH, or about $435,000. That’s still a far cry from the highest-ever football card sale, as a physical Patrick Mahomes rookie cardsold for $861,000 earlier this yearamidst a booming market for sports cards.
The rising value of NFT sports collectables comes amidst an explosion in trading volume for all NFT digital collectibles, including crypto artwork and other kinds of in-game items. NFT trading volumegrew to $342 million in February alone, topping the total for all of 2020, and along with Gronkowski, we’ve seen collectibles from the likes ofGrimes,Kings of Leon, andTaco Bell. Last week, a single piece of crypto art from Beeplesold for $69 million via Christie’s auction.
NBA Top Shot, which launched to the public in October 2020, has been both one of the largest driving forces and beneficiaries of the NFT explosion. According toDappRadar, the collectibles platform has seen nearly $309 million of trading volume over the last 30 days.Sorare’s total trading volumeover that span pales in comparison, sitting at more than $21 million.
DappRadar shows that Sorare’s trading volume skyrocketed in late February, around the same time that NBA Top Shot began capturing widespread headlines for itsimmense trading volumeand big-ticket moment sales. However, Sorare’s daily activity has leveled off since then.
Sorare saw steady growth over the course of 2020 and into 2021 as the platform has amassed more than 120 total team/league licenses to date, including Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain, and every Major League Soccer team. Sorare has parlayed that rising interest into a recent $50 million Series A funding round, featuring major investors such as Alexis Ohanian and Gary Vaynerchuk, as well as the launch ofa spinoff game called One Shot Leagueproduced in collaboration with major video game publisher Ubisoft.
Bitcoin price has pulled back slightly from highs, but the trend has been up for over a year now, and is likely to continue as the nascent technology becomes widely adopted by institutions and traditional market investors.
In the future, the cryptocurrency, according to a top industry figure, will become a “report card” of sorts, scoring the government and its management of monetary policy. Here’s what that means for Bitcoin and why the asset will eventually take on such a role.
Bitcoin To Become Report Card On The Government
The narratives driving Bitcoin these days are nearly endless. There’s the devaluing of precious metals through the digital gold narrative; the currency as the future of collateral; “the stimulus asset”; and much more.
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Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Could Close March With First Ever Quarterly Bear Signal
The next narrative and role that the cryptocurrency is will play, according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, is “report card for how citizens think the government is doing managing their finances.”
“We’re in uncharted territory with how much money we’re printing and #Bitcoin is a report card on that.” – @novogratz pic.twitter.com/SHavy76xSh
— Swan 🦢 SwanBitcoin.com 🚀 (@SwanBitcoin) March 15, 2021
These sentiments echo Bitcoin expert Preston Pysh, who recently called the cryptocurrency a “manipulation gauge.” Both comments are in reference to the asset growing rapidly in response to ongoing money supply expansion, driven by government-led stimulus packages.
The United States, for example, has just approved and begun issuing stimulus checks to taxpayers in the amount of $1,400 a piece.
Bitcoin is already working as a report card, giving the government a failing grade | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Cryptocurrency Will Complete “Secular Shift” Before Making The Grade
Currently, the cryptocurrency is pulling back after a rejection from new highs, but this latest abuse of taxpayer money and a multi-trillion dollar bill that the country’s citizens will foot for years, says that Bitcoin will grow significantly if the report card theory is sound.
When stimulus efforts first began rolling out in 2020, Bitcoin price was still reeling from the Black Thursday panic selloff when the pandemic first struck. The first stimulus checks sent out at $1,200 invested in BTC, would now be worth over $11,000 today.
Related Reading | Expert Take: BTC Has Become A Monetary “Manipulation Gauge”
Those who voted against the government with their dollars that day, now have substantial profits to show for it. The more the government mismanages monetary policy, the larger the cryptocurrency’s market cap will grow, enabling the “report card” effect that Novogratz speaks of.
But before then, he says Bitcoin still has to complete the ongoing “secular shift” in which the asset class has become validated in the eyes of finance, and now every insurance fund, endowment, and more must begin adding it to their portfolio, or risk missing out on capital growth in a disruptive sector.
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) price has rallied 22.5% in March, but as the price moved up, some buyers began to use excessive leverage, according to derivatives data. Meanwhile, futures open interest reached a $22.5 billion record-high, causing investors to question how sustainable the current rally is.
Being optimistic, especially during a bullish market, can’t be deemed worrisome. Still, a yellow flag is raised when buyers use excessive leverage because this could lead to large liquidations during a sell-off.
BTC/USD 6-hour chart. Source: TradingView
After peaking at $58,300 on Feb. 21, Bitcoin faced a 26% correction over the following week. That move wiped out over $4.5 billion worth of futures contracts, therefore virtually eliminating any excessive buyers’ leverage, which was confirmed by the annualized premium on the 1-month futures contract dropping to 17%.
BTC futures aggregate open interest in USD terms. Source: Bybt.com
On March 13 the open interest on BTC futures reached a record $22.5 billion, representing a 39% monthly increase.
To assess whether the market is overly-optimistic, there are a couple of derivatives metrics to review. One is the futures premium (also known as basis), and it measures the price gap between futures contract prices and the regular spot market.
The 1-month futures should usually trade with a 12% to 24% annualized premium, which should be interpreted as a lending rate. By postponing settlement, sellers demand a higher price, and this creates a price difference.
OKEx BTC 1-month futures premium. Source: Skew
The above chart shows the Bitcoin futures basis peaking at 60%, which is usually unsustainable. A basis rate above 35% signals excessive leverage from buyers and creating the potential for massive liquidations and subsequent market crashes.
Take notice of how this indicator corrected after the BTC price dropped from the $60,000 peak on March 13. A similar movement took place on Feb. 21 as BTC reached a $58,300 all-time high and crashed 22% in less than 48 hours. Meanwhile, the futures basis rate adjusted to a neutral 16% level.
A basis level above 24% is not necessarily a pre-crash alert, but it reflects high leverage usage levels from futures contract buyers. This overconfidence usually poses a greater risk if the market recedes 10% or more from its peak.
It is also worth noting that traders sometimes pump up their leverage during a rally, especially on weekends, but later purchase the underlying asset (spot Bitcoin) to adjust the risk.
The move to $61,750 did not liquidate sellers
Those betting that Bitcoin price will reach $65,000 and above will be pleased to know that open interest has been increasing throughout the 71% rally since February. This situation indicates short-sellers are likely fully hedged, taking benefit of the futures premium instead of effectively expecting a downside.
Using the strategy described above, professional investors are essentially doing cash and carry trades that consist of buying the underlying asset and simultaneously selling futures contracts.
These arbitrage positions usually do not present liquidation risks. Therefore, the current surge in open interest during a strong rally is a positive indicator.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of theauthorand do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Young Americans want to buy bitcoin, and they will use the stimulus checks to do so, said Galaxy Investment Partners’ CEO Mike Novogratz. He added that the primary cryptocurrency had become a proven asset in the past few months with the entrance of giant institutions and corporations.
Retail Pushed Bitcoin Higher, Says Novogratz
The first-ever cryptocurrency went on a wild run in the past few days. During the weekend, bitcoin broke its previous ATH, breached above $60,000, and marked a new all-time high at $61,700 before it dumped by $7,000 earlier today.
While discussing the latest highly-volatile price actions in the market, the former hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz said that a similar 10% retracement is within the one standard deviation.
However, he focused more on the bullish developments and the latest record, saying that the weekend run had everything to do with retail investors instead of institutions.
“The stimulus checks are coming. People are excited about that. A lot of the stimulus checks are going to young people who want to buy bitcoin.
This weekend was retail. What happens on the weekend is retail gets excited.”
Mike Novogratz. Source: CNBC
Upon approving and signing the latest multi-trillion-dollar relief bill, the US government sent the first stimulus checks to its citizens last week.
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Further data supporting the narrative that retail investors induced BTC’s latest record came from the analytics company CryptoQuant. By exploring the Coinbase Premium Index – a metric following institutional purchases on the large US-based exchange, the firm’s CEO concluded that the run was not “US institution-driven, it all came from stablecoins.”
Bitcoin is Now an Asset
Novogratz also touched upon how has the perception of bitcoin changed globally in the past several months, following the entrance of giants like MassMutual, Tesla, MicroStrategy, One Asset River Management, and more.
“In the last three months, we’ve had this secular shift where bitcoin has become an asset. It’s not ‘maybe,’ it’s not ‘it might be,’ it’s now an asset class. Cryptocurrency is an asset class. Every bank is moving in, every tech company is moving in, and all portfolios are starting to moving in.”
Consequently, he concluded that if investors are not long, they are ultimately short on BTC.
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Bitcoin holds above a crucial support level that may allow it to rebound to new all-time highs.
Likewise, Ethereum sits on top of a massive demand barrier that may absorb any downward pressure.
If investor demand continues to rise, BTC could aim for $63,000 and ETH could aim for $2,500.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum began this week’s trading session on a negative note as each coin’s price dropped by more than 11%. Despite the losses incurred, the technicals suggest that these cryptocurrencies are primed to recover and aim higher.
Bitcoin Uptrend Remains Intact
Bitcoin made headlines over the weekend as it surgedto a new all-time high of $61,950 on Mar. 13.
While the upswing was anticipatedby the breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern formed on BTC’s 4-hour chart, the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential indicator forecasted a steep decline.
The technical index presented a sell signal in the form of a green nine candlestick after Bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark. A spike in downward pressure helped validate the bearish formation, leading to an 11.50% retracement on Bitcoin’s price chart.
BTC/USD on TradingView
Although BTC dropped to a low of $54,600, it quickly bounced off this level to regain $56,000 as support. Such market behavior suggests that high net-worth individuals and institutions took advantage of the downswing to add more tokens to their portfolios.
Just as Norway-based industrial investment giant Aker ASA and Chinese beauty app Meitu announced the purchase of $58 million and $18 million during early March’s correction, similar announcements could come out of the most recent dip.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo maintains that “there is a very strong case” that Bitcoin will not move below $50,000 again. Roughly 6% of the circulating supply was bought above the $1 trillion market capitalization, adding credence to the bullish thesis.
“With the strong buying we’ve seen [these] last 3 weeks, we’ve formed a very strong support band. 16% of the available coin supply moved to new wallets inside this $46k-$58k price range giving these price levels immense validity in the price discovery mechanism,” Woo explained in his most recent Substack newsletter.
Bitcoin Realized Price Distribution by Glassnode
As long as Bitcoin continues to hold above the TD’s setup support trendline at $56,000, the odds will continue to favor the bulls. Bouncing off this demand barrier could see BTC target $63,000 as the next significant area of resistance.
Although it is too early to tell, there is a high probability that if the $63,000 resistance breaks, Bitcoin will aim for $74,000.
On the flip side, investors must pay close attention to a 4-hour candlestick close below $56,000, as this has the potential to invalidate the bullish outlook. By slicing through this support level, Bitcoin will signal the beginning of a more significant correction to $52,000 before the uptrend resumes.
Ethereum Sits on Top of Stable Support
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum recently rose to $1,950 to reach the targetpresented by a symmetrical triangle pattern that developed on its 4-hour chart. Investors seem to have taken advantage of the rising price action to book profits.
The sudden spike in selling pressure saw Ethereum take an 11.30% nosedive to hit a low of $1,730, at which point prices eventually rebounded. Transaction history shows that this is a strong support level that may keep the uptrend in tact if it continues to hold.
ETH/USD on TradingView
IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model reveals that the $1,700 level represents a massive demand barrier that will not be easy to break. Over 260,000 addresses previously purchased more than 9 million ETH between this price zone.
Further price deprecation may prove challenging since holders within this price range will likely do anything to keep their positions “In the Money.” Investors may even buy more tokens in the event of another downswing to allow Ether to rebound.
In/Out of the Money Around Price by IntoTheBlock
Due to the lack of resistance ahead, it is reasonable to assume that Ethereum could bounce off the $1,700 support to retest the recent high of $1,950. If buying pressure is significant enough for Ether to close above this resistance barrier, then the odds will drastically increase for prices to advance towards a new all-time high of $2,500.
When looking at Ethereum’s holder distribution, the bullish thesis holds. Data from Santiment shows that over the past month, the upward pressure behind Ethereum rose dramatically. Roughly two new addresses holding 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 ETH joined the network, representing a 25% increase in such a short period.
At first glance, the recent increase in the number of large investors behind Ether may seem insignificant. However, when considering that these whales hold between $1.7 billion and $17 billion in Ether, that new buying pressure can translate into billions of dollars.
ETH Holder Distribution by Santiment
Regardless, a 4-hour candlestick close below the $1,700 support could signal the beginning of a steep correction. If this were to happen, Ether might dive towards the next crucial area of support, around $1,350, based on the IOMAP cohorts.
Disclosure: At the time of writing, this author owned Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This news was brought to you by Phemex, our preferred Derivatives Partner.
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Ethereum developers have proposed the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 3368, which aims to finally put miners and the development community on the same page, as regards the scheduled implementation of EIP 1559, a proposal that seeks to permanently solve the problem of skyrocketing gas fees.
Quelling the Tension with EIP-3368
On March 13, 2021, Tim Beiko, took to Twitter to reveal that EIP-3368, which he calls “miners counter-proposal” to EIP-1559, has been proposed. EIP-3368 aims to first increase block miners’ block reward from the current 2 ETH to 3 ETH, and gradually decrease it by each block until it crashes to 1 ETH per block over the next two years.
Coming out of my twitter break to share this: miners’ “counter proposal” to 1559 is EIP-3368, which would raise the block reward to 3 ETH and lower it to 1 ETH over ~2 years. @BitsBeTrippin should present it at the next AllCoreDevs. @EthMagicians thread: https://t.co/CLxc30AUPf
— Tim Beiko | timbeiko.eth (@TimBeiko) March 12, 2021
The team believes the EIP 3368 will greatly reduce the adverse effect of slashing miners’ profits, as it would give them enough time to sell off their mining machines, while also making it impossible for bad actors to orchestrate a 51 percent attack on the network.
“This approach offers a higher level of confidence and published schedule of yield while allowing mining participants time to gracefully repurpose/sell their hardware. This greatly increases ethereum’s PoW security by keeping incentives aligned to ethereum and not being force projected to the highest bidder,” the team wrote.
While Ethereum remains the number one network for smart contracts and decentralized application (dApps) development, the platform’s skyrocketing gas fees has made a good number of projects chooseother blockchainsin recent times.
In a bid to solve the network’s crazy gas fee issues, which has been greatly enriching miners, to the detriment of ether (ETH) investors, Vitalik Buterin introduced the EIP-1559 in 2018. Also known as the Ethereum fee burn proposal, EIP-1559 is designed to replace Ethereum’s current “first-price-auction,” fee mechanism, with thefixed-per-block” fee system.
This way, people will no longer need to add exorbitant transaction fees for their payments to get confirmed very fast.
A Show of Force
Notably, Ethereum miners have been kicking against the EIP-1559, as it would greatly slash their profits while enriching ETH hodlers by increasing scarcity via the burning of fees. With EIP-1559 scheduled to golive later in July, some key Ethereum mining pools stilldo not supportthe change and havethreatenedto orchestrate mayhem on the network on April 1, 2021.
Though the EIP-3338 seems to be having the desired effect on miners, as Red Panda Mining hassaidvia Twitter that it will now “rescind from the show of force,” the proposal has however attractedmixed reactionsfrom members of the Ethereum Magicians Forum.
At press time, the price of ether (ETH) sits at $1,791, with a market cap of $205.78 billion, as seen on CoinMarketCap.